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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Coupled Ocean Wave-Atmosphere Models for Offshore Wind Energy Applications

Coupling ocean wave models to mesoscale atmospheric models is necessary to represent the effect of waves on wind turbine hub-height winds. In this report we provide a review of the most widely used ocean waves models and the phased-averaged spectral wave modeling paradigm that they are based on. Methodologies used to couple these wave models to mesoscale atmospheric models are described along with details of existing coupled modeling systems. We summarize impacts on offshore wind resource assessments that have been investigated with such coupled modeling systems to-date. Specifically, coupling in the North and Baltic Seas was shown to have a small negative effect on the offshore wind energy resource at weak-to-moderate wind speeds, with little impact at higher wind speeds. Finally, limitations of these existing coupled modeling systems and impact assessments are discussed, including examples of and the potential for improved parameterizations of the air-sea fluxes, and the use of fine-scaled simulations using phased-resolved wave models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal relationships among lunar crustal rocks

Temporal relationships among the three most common suites of lunar crustal rocks have been investigated by obtaining new high precision ages on Felsic/Alkali-suite Quartz monzodiorite Clast B from breccia 15405 and Magnesian-suite norite 78235/6/8/55/56 and comparing them to previously dated ferroan anorthosite sample 60025. The weighted average age of 4337.19 ± 0.49 Ma of 15405 Clast B is defined by zircon U-Pb and Pb-Pb ages as well as mineral isochron Sm-Nd and Nd-Nd ages. It is identical to the weighted average age for Apollo 17 norite 78235/6/8/55/56 of 4334.1 ± 3.5 Ma which is defined by Pb-Pb ages measured on baddeleyites in this investigation and less precise Pb-Pb and Sm-Nd ages reported in the literature. Both ages are ∼ 25 Ma younger than the weighted average of Sm-Nd and Pb-Pb ages reported in the literature on ferroan anorthosite 60025 of 4359.3 ± 2.3 Ma. The fact that ages of all three samples are defined by multiple U-Pb, Pb-Pb, Sm-Nd, and 142 Nd- 143 Nd chronometers provide confidence that they record the igneous crystallization history of the samples and do not represent disturbances or mixing lines with no temporal significance. Here, the extent to which these three ages represent broader scale magmatism is difficult to evaluate. Nevertheless, the age defined for 15405 Clast B, 78235/6/8/55/56, and 60025 are contemporaneous with the peak of ages observed in detrital zircons from the Apollo 12, 14, 15, and 17 landing sites (4340 ± 20 Ma), a Mg-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from Apollo 14, 15, 16, and 17 landing sites (4348 ± 25 Ma), and a Ferroan Anorthosite-suite Sm-Nd whole rock isochron defined by samples from the Apollo 15 and 16 landing sites (4354 ± 29 Ma). This implies that Ferroan Anorthosite-suite magmatism is temporally distinct and earlier than magmatism associated with the Mg-suite and the Felsic/Alkali-suite, as predicted by the lunar magma ocean model of lunar differentiation. The short 35 ± 10 Ma interval between primary ferroan anorthosite magmatism and secondary magmatism suggests that the lunar crust formed over a limited period of time. Although heat from decay of long-lived isotopes, large impacts, tidal heating associated with interactions between the Earth and Moon, and density driven overturn of the magma ocean have all been invoked to explain production of ancient secondary crustal magmatism, only tidal heating and cumulate overturn are consistent with the apparent short duration of secondary crustal magmatism and the great depth of crystallization implied for some Mg-suite samples. The initial ε 143 Nd values derived from the 15405 Clast B and 78238 Mg-suite norite isochrons, as well as a Mg-suite whole rock isochron are −0.23 ± 0.11, −0.27 ± 0.74, and −0.25 ± 0.09, respectively. They are identical within uncertainty indicating that Mg-suite and Felsic/Alkali-suite magmas were derived from materials that had the same time averaged Sm/Nd ratios since the formation of the solar system. This, combined with the contemporaneous nature of 15405 Clast B and 78235/6/8/55/56 Mg-suite norite, is consistent with evolution of both samples, and likely both magma suites, from a common source through closed system fractional crystallization or partial melting processes.

Chronology↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States

Abstract Snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature, and precipitation biases and trends are evaluated in the atmosphere‐land simulations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) in comparison to the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and two other models using the ground measurement‐based University of Arizona (UA) snow product. SWE, temperature, and precipitation biases are highest in magnitude in the Western contiguous United States (CONUS). SWE errors are attributed to temperature and precipitation through multiple linear regressions of normalized errors, the coefficients of which represent the sensitivities to temperature and precipitation errors. SWE errors are more sensitive to temperature errors throughout the CONUS. Model SWE and temperature trends are generally opposite from UA product trends in the Western CONUS. SWE trend errors are also attributed to temperature and precipitation trend errors using multiple linear regressions of normalized trend errors. SWE trend errors are more sensitive to those of precipitation at higher elevations (>1,500 m) in the Western CONUS in these simulations. Thus, the sensitivity to temperature and precipitation differ for SWE errors and its trend errors. Furthermore, the SWE trend errors are more sensitive to temperature and precipitation in the atmosphere‐ocean coupled simulations in which the atmosphere‐land is coupled to an active ocean model. These results suggest that both errors in simulated temperature and precipitation contribute to SWE errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Influence of Ocean Topography on the Upwelling of Carbon in the Southern Ocean

The physical circulation of the Southern Ocean sets the surface concentration and thus air-sea exchange of CO 2 . However, we have a limited understanding of the three-dimensional circulation that brings deep carbon-rich waters to the surface. Here, we introduce and analyze a novel high-resolution ocean model simulation with active biogeochemistry and online Lagrangian particle tracking. We focus our attention on a subset of particles with high dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) that originate below 1,000 m and eventually upwell into the near-surface layer (upper 200 m). We find that 71% of the DIC-enriched water upwelling across 1,000 m is concentrated near topographic features, which occupy just 33% of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Once particles upwell to the near-surface layer, they exhibit relatively uniform pCO 2 levels and DIC decorrelation timescales, regardless of their origin. Furthermore, our results show that Southern Ocean bathymetry plays a key role in delivering carbon-rich waters to the surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

INSIGHTS INTO MARINE UNICELLULAR CYANOBACTERIAL AND NON-CYANOBACTERIAL DIAZOTROPHS THROUGH SINGLE-CELL ANALYSES

Nutrient availability affects primary productivity, and nitrogen (N) is the limiting nutrient over large regions of the ocean. Biological N fixation (BNF) is the conversion of atmospheric dinitrogen (N2) to bioavailable forms of N (ammonium and amino acids). A select group of Bacteria and Archaea, known as diazotrophs, are the only organisms capable of this conversion. BNF is a critical source of N in nutrient-depleted (oligotrophic) marine waters. As such, BNF studies are a fundamental component for better understanding primary productivity and carbon cycling, as well as parameterizing predictive future global ocean models. Unicellular diazotrophs are widespread in marine systems and, in some cases, important contributors of BNF. This dissertation investigates unicellular diazotrophs at the single-cell level, including: UCYN-A, a cyanobacterial diazotroph that lives in symbiosis with an algal host, non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs (NCDs), which are putative heterotrophs, as well as a specific NCD known as Gamma A, a commonly occurring organism throughout the tropics and subtropics that belongs to the class Gammaproteobacteria. The single-cell investigations used in these studies can provide high-resolution insights that are not possible from community-level analyses of BNF, such as the N2 fixation rate of individual cells and cell morphology. Singlecell nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry (nanoSIMS) analyses were used in chapter 2 and 3 to investigate the cell-specific N2 fixation rates of (2) UCYN-A in the viii cold waters of the Bering and Arctic Seas where N2 fixation was not previously believed to be possible, and (3) NCDs in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre where we demonstrated the first direct evidence of NCD N2 fixation on open ocean particles. Chapter 4 focused on the uncultivated NCD, Gamma A, using geneFISH to visualize single cells in natural seawater samples. We successfully identified Gamma A by developing a fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) probe targeting the diazotrophic functional marker gene nifH, revealing Gamma A cells are most often attached to particles. Together these studies provide new insights into the distributions, activities, and physiologies of geographically widespread, unicellular diazotrophs, thus improving our understanding of their roles as sources of fixed N in the surface ocean.

Harding, K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-order multirate explicit time-stepping schemes for the baroclinic-barotropic split dynamics in primitive equations

In order to treat the multiple time scales of ocean dynamics in an efficient manner, the baroclinic-barotropic splitting technique has been widely used for solving the primitive equations for ocean modeling. Based on the framework of strong stability-preserving Runge-Kutta approach, we propose two high-order multirate explicit time-stepping schemes (SSPRK2-SE and SSPRK3-SE) for the resulting split system in this paper. The proposed schemes allow for a large time step to be used for the three-dimensional baroclinic (slow) mode and a small time step for the two-dimensional barotropic (fast) mode, in which each of the two mode solves just need to satisfy their respective CFL conditions for numerical stability. Specifically, at each time step, the baroclinic velocity is first computed by advancing the baroclinic mode and fluid thickness of the system with the large time-step and the assistance of some intermediate approximations of the barotropicmode obtained by substepping with the small time step; then the barotropic velocity is corrected by using the small time step to re-advance the barotropic mode un-der an improved barotropic forcing produced by interpolation of the forcing terms from the preceding baroclinic mode solves; lastly, the fluid thickness is updated by coupling the baroclinic and barotropic velocities. Additionally, numerical inconsistencies on the discretized sea surface height caused by the mode splitting are relieved via a reconciliation process with carefully calculated flux deficits. Here, two benchmark tests from the “MPAS-Ocean” platform are carried out to numerically demonstrate the performance and parallel scalability of the proposed SSPRK-SE schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal variation of the surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea: a Lagrangian perspective

Previous studies on cross-shelf exchange, predominantly adopted an Eulerian perspective, struggled to identify water sources and pathways. Using a high-resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) and Lagrangian particle tracking, this study systematically investigates the seasonal variation and dynamics of surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) from a Lagrangian perspective. Based on daily released 30-day drifter trajectories we identify the key pathways, source regions for surface cross-shelf exchange, revealing pronounced seasonal variability. Results show the surface cross-shelf exchange generally following monsoon-driven Ekman transport. However, local dynamics, especially topographic modulation, can outweigh the expected Ekman-driven transport, producing surface exchange patterns opposite to that predicted from the prevailing winds. Topographic effects vary across different scales. In the coastal waters of western Guangdong during winter, despite downwelling-favorable winds, the modulation of alongshore currents by island topography induces an eastward pressure gradient. This gradient, through geostrophic balance, drives offshore flows opposite to wind-driven Ekman onshore transport. Furthermore, the eastern widened shelf exhibits a distinct seasonal variation of cross-shelf exchange, with strong offshore transport (opposite to the direction of Ekman transport) in winter and exceedingly weak exchange in summer. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms reveals that this winter offshore transport is primarily attributed to geostrophic flows driven by surface pressure gradient that is jointly modulated by the Kuroshio intrusion and local widened shelf topography, and enhanced by cumulative submesoscale processes. In summer, a persistent and strong along-isobath jet acts as a dynamic barrier, effectively suppressing the exchange. These findings highlight the important role of topography in regulating surface material transport, and have important implications for predicting the advection and dispersion of plankton or oil spills over the continental shelf influenced by monsoon.

Hao, Dongliang↗
DOE OSTI2026

Combined effects of horizontal and vertical resolution on reliable turbulence prediction at tidal energy sites: A systematic study in the Salish Sea, WA

Predicting turbulence characteristics with coastal ocean models is essential for tidal energy converter deployment. While large eddy simulation provides a detailed turbulence representation, computational limitations restrict its use to smaller domains. We systematically evaluate whether well-configured coastal models can provide reliable turbulence prediction through progressive refinement of 3D model representation. We implemented four model configurations (Levels 1–4) using terrain-following coordinates, isolating the impacts of horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, and layer distribution. We validated all configurations against field measurements from the Salish Sea, WA. Results show that tidal current velocity predictions remain unchanged regarding model configuration, but turbulence properties are sensitive to resolution refinement. Increasing vertical resolution alone proved insufficient; even with vertical sigma-levels rising from 11 to 41, significant underprediction persisted until finer horizontal resolution better captured bathymetric variations. The Level 4 configuration, incorporating geometric sigma-levels distribution, achieved turbulence prediction skill scores exceeding 0.90. Turbulence closure comparison revealed Mellor- Yamada 2.5 outperformed k-epsilon in TKE prediction (skill scores 0.84–0.94 versus 0.72–0.81) due to better boundary layer parameterization. This study shows that well-configured coastal models effectively bridge the gap between simplified tools and costly high-fidelity modeling, offering the tidal energy industry practical and cost-effective turbulence data at commercially relevant scales.

Marine Energy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗
DOE OSTI2022

A perspective on iron (Fe) in the atmosphere: air quality, climate, and the ocean

As scientists engage in research motivated by climate change and the impacts of pollution on air, water, and human health, we increasingly recognize the need for the scientific community to improve communication and knowledge exchange across disciplines to address pressing and outstanding research questions holistically. Our professional paths have crossed because our research activities focus on the chemical reactivity of Fe-containing minerals in air and water, and at the air-sea interface. (Photo)chemical reactions driven by Fe can take place at the surface of the particles/droplets or within the condensed phase. The extent and rates of these reactions are influenced by water content and biogeochemical activity ubiquitous in these systems. One of these reactions is the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) that cause damage to respiratory organs. Another is that the reactivity of Fe and organics in aerosol particles alter surficial physicochemical properties that impact aerosol-radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. Also, upon deposition, aerosol particles influence ocean biogeochemical processes because micronutrients such as Fe or toxic elements such as copper become bioavailable. We provide a perspective on these topics and future research directions on the reactivity of Fe in atmospheric aerosol systems, from sources to short- and long-term impacts at the sinks with emphasis on needs to enhance the predictive power of atmospheric and ocean models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tidal Currents in San Juan Archipelago, Washington

Re-analyzed acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data originally collected by NOAA CO-OPS (Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services) and equivalent point data from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's FVCOM (Finite Volume Community Ocean Model) model of the region. Data are processed to products describing characteristics of tidal currents relevant to tidal turbines, as well as power output estimates for a notional turbine deployed from a surface platform or from the seabed at each location. These data underpin the results presented in their associated paper - see below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response Of Salt Intrusion In A Tidal Estuary To Regional Climatic Forcing (FVCOM Output for the baseline scenario)

Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels. These findings have been summarized into a journal manuscript. The data included in this information release request are FVCOM model output associated with the numerical simulations described in the journal manuscript.

Liu, Jinliang↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the Non-linear Interactions Between Tide, Storm Surge, and River Flow in the Delaware Bay Estuary, United States

Low-lying coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region are prone to compound flooding resulting from the co-occurrence of river floods and coastal storm surges. To better understand the contribution of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions to compound flooding, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was applied to simulate coastal storm surge and flooding in the Delaware Bay Estuary in the United States. The model was validated with tide gauge data in the estuary for selected hurricane events. Non-linear interactions between tide-surge-river were investigated using a non-stationary tidal analysis method, which decomposes the interactions’ components at the frequency domain. Model results indicated that tide-river interactions damped semidiurnal tides, while the tide-surge interactions mainly influenced diurnal tides. Tide-river interactions suppressed the water level upstream while tide-surge interaction increased the water level downstream, which resulted in a transition zone of damping and enhancing effects where the tide-surge-river interaction was prominent. Evident compound flooding was observed as a result of non-linear tide-surge-river interactions. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of river flooding on the non-linear interactions. The transition zone of damping and enhancing effects shifted downstream as the river flow rate increased.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A modeling study of ocean thermal energy conversion resource and potential environmental effects around Kailua-Kona, Hawaii

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) offers a promising renewable energy solution through a heat exchange process using the temperature difference between warm surface seawater and cold deep seawater. Because accurate resource characterization is critical for the optimal design and implementation of OTEC systems, a high-resolution numerical model is employed to better characterize the OTEC resource at Kona, Hawaii. Our model provides detailed spatial and temporal variability of the thermal gradient, which is essential for assessing the viability and efficiency of OTEC systems. The model results reveal distinct patterns and dynamics not captured by existing observations or models (e.g., lower-resolution information). These findings highlight the importance of using high-resolution models for accurate predictions of thermal gradient variability, ultimately supporting more efficient and sustainable OTEC deployment. Additionally, the study investigates the impacts of mixed water discharge from OTEC plants that can cause shock to organisms living in the surface water and potentially destabilize the water column. Understanding these effects is vital for minimizing any potential negative environmental consequences and ensuring the long-term viability of OTEC operations. Further, our model improves OTEC resource characterization, which can lead to optimal design and deployment of OTEC systems. The analysis of OTEC water discharge impacts can accelerate the development of OTEC technologies, overcoming permitting/consenting challenges. These findings contribute to the broader adoption of high-resolution modeling in ocean energy resource characterization, particularly for OTEC applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021

Abstract Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗