Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “objective uncertainty quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Artificial intelligence models, photos, and data associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” (v2)

This data package is associated with the manuscript “Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO” published in Water Resources Research (Chen et al., 2024). This data package includes the training, validation, testing, and prediction data used by the artificial intelligence (AI) model for automated grain size and hydro-biogeochemistry quantification using streambed photos. The grain size data are extracted for each photo using You Look Only Once (YOLO), a pre-trained object detection model. This data package was originally published in October 2023. It was updated August 2025 (v2; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. Please see flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Please see dd.csv for a data dictionary that defines the column headers of .csv files in the data package. This dataset is comprised of one data folder containing (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; and (4) six subfolders. Subfolders 1 to 4 include the training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 5_Summary includes the summary results of different combinations of training, validation, testing, and prediction data. Subfolder 6_SupplementalData includes additional data downloaded from public sources (Kaufman et al., 2023a; Kaufman et al., 2023b; Garefalakis et al., 2023; Mair et al., 2024; https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/Geospatial_variables). In total, the data package includes 110 folders and 44,283 files. These files include 9,047 .jpg photos, 1 .png photo, 3 .tif photos; 26,639 photo labels and individual grain sizes and probability from AI (.txt); 8,447 grain size distribution data (.dat); and 126 CSV files for results summary, and 14 required metadata files (.xlsx). The summary CSV files contain 68 columns and approximately 2,200 rows that represent photo names, site locations, recording time, GPS coordinates, grains sizes (D10, D50, D60, and D84), number of grains, and additional hydro-biogeochemical data such as water depth, flow velocity, Manning’s coefficient, friction factor, hydraulic conductivity, permeability, streambed interstitial velocity magnitude, mass transfer rate, and nitrate uptake velocity. The photos were obtained from 75 sites in the Yakima River Basin and the Columbia River shorelines, and other associated data from samples and sensors obtained when the photos were taken are publicly available (Fulton et al. 2022; Grieger et al. 2023). All files are .csv, .txt, .dat, .jpg, or .pdf. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of LEU Holdup using gamma ray imaging and inverse transport solver

Holdup is the residual amount of special nuclear material (SNM) remaining in a processing facility after the bulk materials have been cleaned out. In commercial uranium processing facilities, quantification of holdup is a major challenge because of the highly variable shapes and sizes of the deposits. Any method that attempts to generalize and calibrate deposit shapes in order to quantify holdup will be prone to high uncertainties. Uncertainties on the order of ±50% are typical in holdup results. In international safeguards applications, a ±50% uncertainty can result in a large amount of material unaccounted for (MUF) thereby increasing the difficulty of detecting material diversion and facility misuse. An imaging-based methodology has been developed with the objective of significantly reducing this uncertainty by using the true deposit shape, instead of relying on oversimplified geometric assumptions. The project is a collaboration between ORNL, Y-12, and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN. Uranium sources of known masses were measured using the Germanium Gamma-ray Imager (GeGI), a high-resolution imaging spectrometer, creating a pixelated map for each spectral bin. Two different gamma imaging methods are employed in this work: coded aperture imaging and Compton imaging. A validated MonteCarlo model of the detector has been developed using the GEANT4 code for determining the intrinsic response of the detector, its enclosure, and the coded aperture mask. An inverse transport solver based on the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo approach known as Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) is employed to use the measurement data from the image pixels (coded aperture or Compton) to solve for the mass of 235 U in the deposit. A reliable method based on the DREAM solver has been developed to flag the infinite thickness condition of a uranium deposit. The project team is working towards improving the image reconstruction for Compton imaging so that a better localization of the source can be achieved. Besides treating the coded aperture and Compton imaging methods independently, the project is also evaluating a combined method that uses the Compton scatter data from a coded aperture measurement. GEANT4 simulations are being performed to evaluate the combined approach. The impact on the DREAM optimization as the source thickness progressively approaches infinite thickness is being evaluated. A number of uranium sources available at ORNL have been measured, and the DREAM results have been tested and validated for the coded aperture imaging. A similar effort will be carried out to validate the Compton based method once the development of algorithms for better localization are complete. The imaging based quantification is very amenable to unattended monitoring of holdup accumulation at key measurement points. A proof of concept measurement has been completed to demonstrate this capability The current work used the high energy resolution imager GeGI. However, the approach and methodologies are applicable to other imagers such as the cadmium zin telluride (CZT) based imager manufactured by H3D, Inc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cell G 7606A Mockup Measurement Analysis Methods and Results

The production of research isotopes at the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC) invariably leads to the accumulation of radioactive waste. Storage of this waste onsite at ORNL serves as an interim solution prior to shipment to long term storage facilities, however onsite capacity is limited. Proper characterization of the activity of waste products is essential for determining the appropriate waste stream and, ultimately, mitigating the cost of disposal. This is typically done via gamma spectrometry and use of the In-Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS), a software package from Mirion that serves as an accepted community standard. However, variability in the contents, density, and activity distribution in waste containers can introduce large errors in ISOCS quantification. A measurement campaign using a mockup of the proposed setup in Cell G seeks to quantify the magnitude and source of these systematic errors. Analysis of this data will guide the creation of ISOCS geometry templates and measurement methods designed to minimize overall uncertainty in reported activities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a nuclear thermal propulsion reactor startup sequence

The research presented in this article describes progress in applying stochastic methods, uncertainty quantification, parametric studies, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated via the radiation transport code Griffin to simulate neutronics. Our goal is to develop a reduced-order (surrogate) model that can be rapidly sampled with perturbations to multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums (CDs), which is itself controlled by a hybrid proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time [Λ] and effective delayed neutron fraction [ β eff ] from a transient Griffin simulation executed via Griffin’s improved quasi-static solver to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions that control the CD rotation angle. By investigating numerous stochastic approaches, we developed a dual-purpose surrogate model of the NTP system, using polynomial regression in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM). The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters, such as coefficients on the PID control or temperature (directly affecting the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate (within 5%) results at speeds orders of magnitude faster (minutes, not days of computational time) than the base model. Once the surrogate model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs as well as the effects of these inputs on the model output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some type of physical interference, or uncertainty may exist in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters, and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system for operating CDs in a functioning NTP system. This work is a scoping study of the MOOSE STM.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Approximating the linear response of physical chaos

Abstract Parametric derivatives of statistics are highly desired quantities in prediction, design optimization and uncertainty quantification. In the presence of chaos, the rigorous computation of these quantities is certainly possible, but mathematically complicated and computationally expensive. Based on Ruelle’s formalism, this paper shows that the sophisticated linear response algorithm can be dramatically simplified in higher-dimensional systems featuring statistical homogeneity in the physical space. We argue that the contribution of the SRB (Sinai–Ruelle–Bowen) measure gradient, which is an integral yet the most cumbersome part of the full algorithm, is negligible if the objective function is appropriately aligned with unstable manifolds. This abstract condition could potentially be satisfied by a vast family of real-world chaotic systems, regardless of the physical meaning and mathematical form of the objective function and perturbed parameter. We demonstrate several numerical examples that support these conclusions and that present the use and performance of a simplified linear response algorithm. In the numerical experiments, we consider physical models described by differential equations, including Lorenz 96 and Kuramoto–Sivashinsky.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity Analysis of Particle-In-Cell Modeling Parameters in Settling Bed, Bubbling Fluidized Bed and Circulating Fluidized Bed

The objective of the work presented is to perform a preliminary sensitivity analysis of particle-in-cell (PIC) model parameters when applied to settling bed, bubbling fluidized bed, and circulating fluidized bed simulations. These examples correspond to widely different flow conditions commonly seen in chemical engineering applications. Simulations were performed using the PIC method in the open-source software Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). As part of the non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis, simulation campaigns were generated using Nodeworks. Sampling locations or settings for PIC model parameters were determined using the Latin Hypercube method. Response surfaces were created using radial basis functions (RBF), and Sobol’ indices were estimated to quantify the influence of model parameters on the quantities of interest (QoI). This study marks a first step towards systematically determining optimal ranges for model parameters used in MFiX-PIC. Based on limited experience, it is expected that these values would depend strongly on flow conditions. Given the complexity of the multiphase flow systems under analysis, a non-intrusive UQ based approach is used to identify the most influential parameters in each case. This prior knowledge will help in proposing an effective design of experiments (DoE) and determine optimal parameters through techniques such as deterministic or Bayesian calibration, which will be pursued in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of the Inter-Tube Flow Mode Transitions in the Evaporators of Multi-Effect Thermal Desalination Plants

Water is one of the most stressed resources on the planet. The limited availability of fresh water and the high cost of transportation have led to an increased interest in water desalination technologies. The two main categories of desalination techniques are membrane desalination and thermal desalination. Membrane technologies include pressure driven and electrical driven membranes. On the other hand, thermal desalination includes: multi-effect desalination (MED), multi-stage flash (MSF) desalination, and mechanical vapor compression desalination. Multi-effect desalination plants are usually made of a series of evaporators (also known as effects). In each effect, hot steam flows inside the tubes and evaporates the seawater that falls on the outside of the tubes. The vapor formed at each effect flows to the next effect and acts as the heating medium for the falling seawater. The prevailing flow mode of the falling seawater (i.e. droplet, jet, or sheet) influences heat and mass transfer as well as dry out in the evaporators of Multi-Effect Desalination (MED) plants. The objective of this paper is to predict and discuss the prevailing falling film flow modes in the evaporators of MED plants, under different operating conditions. The paper demonstrates the transitional Reynolds numbers between the main falling film modes for seawater. This closes a gap in the literature where there is a dearth of mode transition data for seawater. The effect of fluid properties and tube geometry on the transitions is discussed in details. As a result, the accuracy of the predicted transitional Reynolds numbers is evaluated via uncertainty quantification techniques.

availability↗
DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Feasibility Study of Utilizing Electricity to Produce Intermediates from CO2 and Biomass

Capturing and converting CO2 generated from bioethanol facilities into valuable products, leveraging renewable electricity as the primary energy input, could increase overall biorefinery carbon utilization by as much as 40% and provide a means to decarbonize fuels and chemicals production. However, significant uncertainty exists around the costs, carbon intensity, risks, and technical challenges associated with electron-driven CO2 reduction. Thus, the overarching objective of this project is to guide existing and future research and development efforts by addressing these knowledge gaps for utilizing renewable electricity and CO2 to improve biorefinery economics and carbon utilization. By September 2023, this project will develop and publish a comprehensive design report for the integration of CO2 utilization into two existing conceptual biorefinery designs, which will include conceptual process models, pioneer and nth plant economics, identification and quantification of technological risks, and projections for future cost reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: hypothesis testing of structure

ABSTRACT A crucial aspect of mass mapping, via weak lensing, is quantification of the uncertainty introduced during the reconstruction process. Properly accounting for these errors has been largely ignored to date. We present a new method to reconstruct maximum a posteriori (MAP) convergence maps by formulating an unconstrained Bayesian inference problem with Laplace-type l1-norm sparsity-promoting priors, which we solve via convex optimization. Approaching mass mapping in this manner allows us to exploit recent developments in probability concentration theory to infer theoretically conservative uncertainties for our MAP reconstructions, without relying on assumptions of Gaussianity. For the first time, these methods allow us to perform hypothesis testing of structure, from which it is possible to distinguish between physical objects and artefacts of the reconstruction. Here, we present this new formalism, and demonstrate the method on simulations, before applying the developed formalism to two observational data sets of the Abell 520 cluster. Initial reconstructions of the Abell 520 catalogues reported the detection of an anomalous ‘dark core’ – an overdense region with no optical counterpart – which was taken to be evidence for self-interacting dark matter. In our Bayesian framework, it is found that neither Abell 520 data set can conclusively determine the physicality of such dark cores at $99{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence. However, in both cases the recovered MAP estimators are consistent with both sets of data.

Price, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building surrogate models of nuclear density functional theory with Gaussian processes and autoencoders

From the lightest Hydrogen isotopes up to the recently synthesized Oganesson (Z = 118), it is estimated that as many as about 8,000 atomic nuclei could exist in nature. Most of these nuclei are too short-lived to be occurring on Earth, but they play an essential role in astrophysical events such as supernova explosions or neutron star mergers that are presumed to be at the origin of most heavy elements in the Universe. Understanding the structure, reactions, and decays of nuclei across the entire chart of nuclides is an enormous challenge because of the experimental difficulties in measuring properties of interest in such fleeting objects and the theoretical and computational issues of simulating strongly-interacting quantum many-body systems. Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is a fully microscopic theoretical framework which has the potential of providing such a quantitatively accurate description of nuclear properties for every nucleus in the chart of nuclides. Thanks to high-performance computing facilities, it has already been successfully applied to predict nuclear masses, global patterns of radioactive decay like β or γ decay, and several aspects of the nuclear fission process such as, e.g., spontaneous fission half-lives. Yet, predictive simulations of nuclear spectroscopy—the low-lying excited states and transitions between them—or of nuclear fission, or the quantification of theoretical uncertainties and their propagation to basic or applied nuclear science applications, would require several orders of magnitude more calculations than currently possible. However, most of this computational effort would be spent into generating a suitable basis of DFT wavefunctions. Such a task could potentially be considerably accelerated by borrowing tools from the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we review different approaches to applying supervised and unsupervised learning techniques to nuclear DFT.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning

Various modeling techniques are used to predict the capacity fade of Li-ion batteries. Algebraic reduced-order models, which are inherently interpretable and computationally fast, are ideal for use in battery controllers, technoeconomic models, and multi-objective optimizations. For Li-ion batteries with graphite anodes, solid-electrolyte-interphase (SEI) growth on the graphite surface dominates fade. This fade is often modeled using physically informed equations, such as square-root of time for predicting solvent-diffusion limited SEI growth, and Arrhenius and Tafel-like equations predicting the temperature and state-of-charge rate dependencies. In some cases, completely empirical relationships are proposed. However, statistical validation is rarely conducted to evaluate model optimality, and only a handful of possible models are usually investigated. This article demonstrates a novel procedure for automatically identifying reduced-order degradation models from millions of algorithmically generated equations via bi-level optimization and symbolic regression. Identified models are statistically validated using cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification via bootstrapping. On a LiFePO 4 /Graphite cell calendar aging data set, automatically identified models utilizing square-root, power law, stretched exponential, and sigmoidal functions result in greater accuracy and lower uncertainty than models identified by human experts, and demonstrate that previously known physical relationships can be empirically "rediscovered" using machine learning.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiple Degradation Mechanisms in Reinforced Concrete Structures, Modeling and Risk Analysis

The overarching goal of this project is to complement ongoing Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS)-funded Grizzly concrete modeling development efforts by providing improved multi-physics models for incorporation into the Grizzly and BlackBear codes. Objectives of this work identified at the outset of this project include: 1. Coupling between mechanical damage and transport processes. The mechanical damage will be characterized by nonlinear mechanical constitutive models appropriate for concrete used in nuclear power plants (NPPs). 2. Improved representation of the coupling among the transport process, building on the current moisture and thermal transport models in Grizzly. The parameters for coupling among heat and mass transport in the multi-physics model will be experimentally determined. 3. Coupling among different scale levels of concrete constituents, fine and coarse aggregates, cement paste, hydration products, and pore structure. 4. Probabilistic analysis of the random nature of the heterogeneous concrete structure and the environmental factors (ambient temperature and humidity) and their multiple effects on concrete deterioration. 5. Benchmark verification, validation and uncertainty quantification of the thermo-hygro- chemo-mechanical (THCM) concrete formulation. The end goal of this work was to provide a comprehensive and robust simulation capability that can be applied at the engineering scale for analysis of realistic deterioration scenarios in NPP concrete structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗