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At least 91 records · Page 5

Probing New Hadronic Forces with Heavy Exotic Atoms

We explore the potential of precision spectroscopy of heavy exotic atoms where electrons are substituted by negative hadrons to detect new force carriers with hadronic couplings. The selected transitions are unaffected by nuclear contact terms, thus enabling highly accurate calculations using bound-state QED, provided that the nuclear polarization is under control. Alternatively, we demonstrate that the dipole polarizability, a fundamental property of nuclei, can be extracted from the spectroscopy of exotic atoms in a novel way by combining two transitions while maintaining high sensitivity to new physics. Based on existing data, we extracted world-leading bounds on mediator masses ranging from 0.1 to 10 MeV for two benchmark models and show that forthcoming experiments could enhance the sensitivity to new physics by 2 orders of magnitude.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Toward UV models of kinetic mixing and portal matter. VII. A light dark photon in the 3 𝑐 ⁢3 𝐿 ⁢1 𝐴 ⁢1 𝐵 model

The kinetic mixing (KM) portal, by which the Standard Model (SM) photon mixes with a light dark photon arising from a new 𝑈⁢(1) 𝐷 gauge group, allows for the possibility of viable scenarios of sub-GeV thermal dark matter with appropriately suppressed couplings to the SM. This KM can only occur if particles having both SM and dark quantum numbers, here termed portal matter, also exist. The presence of such types of states and the strong suggestion of a need to embed 𝑈⁢(1) 𝐷 into a non-Abelian gauge structure not too far above the TeV scale based on the renormalization-group equation running of the 𝑈⁢(1)𝐷 gauge coupling is potentially indicative of an enlarged group linking together the visible and dark sectors. The gauge group 𝐺 = 𝑆⁢𝑈⁢(3) 𝑐 × 𝑆⁢𝑈⁢(3) 𝐿 × 𝑈⁢(1) 𝐴 × 𝑈⁢(1) 𝐵 = 3 𝑐 ⁢3 𝐿 ⁢1 𝐴 ⁢1 𝐵 is perhaps the simplest setup wherein the SM and dark interactions are partially unified in a non-Abelian fashion that is not a simple product group of the form 𝐺 = 𝐺 SM × 𝐺 𝐷 encountered frequently in earlier work. The present paper describes the implications and phenomenology of this type of setup.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Towards UV-Models of Kinetic Mixing and Portal Matter VII: A Light Dark Photon in the 3c3L1A1B Model

The kinetic mixing (KM) portal, by which the Standard Model (SM) photon mixes with a light dark photon arising from a new U(1)DU(1)D​ gauge group, allows for the possibility of viable scenarios of sub-GeV thermal dark matter (DM) with appropriately suppressed couplings to the SM. This KM can only occur if particles having both SM and dark quantum numbers, here termed portal matter (PM), also exist. The presence of such types of states and the strong suggestion of a need to embed U(1)DU(1)D​ into a non-abelian gauge structure not too far above the TeV scale based on the RGE running of the U(1)DU(1)D​ gauge coupling is potentially indicative of an enlarged group linking together the visible and dark sectors. The gauge group G=SU(3)c×SU(3)L×U(1)A×U(1)B=3c3L1A1BG=SU(3)c​×SU(3)L​×U(1)A​×U(1)B​=3c​3L​1A​1B​ is perhaps the simplest setup wherein the SM and dark interactions are partially unified in a non-abelian fashion that is not a simple product group of the form G=GSM×GDG=GSM​×GD​ encountered frequently in earlier work. The present paper describes the implications and phenomenology of this type of setup.

Rizzo, Thomas G. [SLAC National Accelerator Labora↗

Near-SUSY to non-SUSY crossover

Gauge theories can be solved exactly slightly away from the supersymmetric (SUSY) limit softly broken by anomaly mediation when the size of SUSY breaking is much smaller than the dynamical scale (𝑚 ≪ Λ). We show empirical evidence that the near-SUSY limit is continuously connected to the non-SUSY limit (𝑚 ≫ Λ) in SU⁡(𝑁 𝑐 ) gauge theories with 𝑁 𝑓 quarks in the fundamental representation. The evidence includes the behavior of quark bilinear condensate and gluon condensates, light hadron spectra, and consistency with the large 𝑁 𝑐 limit including the Witten-Veneziano relations between the topological susceptibility and 𝑚 𝜂′ and 𝑚 𝜋 . In addition, we present new predictions when 𝑁 𝑓 /𝑁 𝑐 ≳ 𝑂⁡(1).

Effective field theory↗

Noble dark matter: Surprising elusiveness of dark baryons

Dark matter could be a baryonic composite of stronglyc upled constituents transforming under SU⁡(2) 𝐿 . We classify the SU⁡(2) 𝐿 representations of baryons in a class of simple confining dark sectors and find that the lightest state can be a pure singlet or a singlet that mixes with other neutral components of SU⁡(2) 𝐿 representations, which strongly suppresses the dark matter candidate’s interactions with the Standard Model. We focus on models with a confining SU⁡(𝑁 𝑐 ) and heavy dark quarks constituting vectorlike 𝑁 𝑓 -plet of SU⁢(2) 𝐿 . For benchmark 𝑁 𝑐 and 𝑁 𝑓 , we calculate baryon mass spectra, incorporating electroweak gauge boson exchange in the nonrelativistic quark model, and demonstrate that above TeV mass scales, dark matter is dominantly a singlet state. The combination of this singlet nature with the recently discovered ℋ-parity results in an inert state analogous to noble gases, hence we coin the term noble dark matter. Our results can be understood in the nonrelativistic effective theory that treats the dark baryons as elementary states, where we find singlets accompanying triplets, 5-plets, or more exotic representations. This generalization of WIMP-like theories is more difficult to find or rule out than dark matter models that include only a single SU⁡(2) 𝐿 multiplet (such as a wino), motivating new searches in colliders and a reanalysis of direct and indirect detection prospects in astrophysical observations.

dark matter direct detection↗

Measuring spin correlation between quarks during QCD confinement

The vacuum is now understood to have a rich and complex structure, characterized by fluctuating energy fields and a condensate of virtual quark–antiquark pairs. The spontaneous breaking of the approximate chiral symmetry, signalled by the nonvanishing quark condensate $\langle$$q\bar{q}$$\rangle$, is dynamically generated through topologically nontrivial gauge configurations such as instantons. The precise mechanism linking the chiral symmetry breaking to the mass generation associated with quark confinement remains a profound open question in quantum chromodynamics (QCD)—the fundamental theory of strong interaction. High-energy proton–proton collisions could liberate virtual quark–antiquark pairs from the vacuum that subsequently undergo confinement to form hadrons, whose properties could serve as probes into QCD confinement and the quark condensate. Here we report evidence of spin correlations in $Λ\bar{Λ}$ hyperon pairs inherited from spin-correlated strange quark–antiquark virtual pairs. Measurements by the STAR experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory reveal a relative polarization signal of (18 ± 4)% that links the virtual spin-correlated quark pairs from the QCD vacuum to their final-state hadron counterparts. Crucially, this correlation vanishes when the hyperon pairs are widely separated in angle, consistent with the decoherence of the quantum system. Our findings provide a new experimental model for exploring the dynamics and interplay of quark confinement and entanglement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Probing the Higgs boson CP properties in vector-boson fusion production in the H → τ + τ − channel with the ATLAS detector

The CP properties of the Higgs boson are studied in the vector-boson fusion production mode. The analysis exploits the decay mode of the Higgs boson into two τ-leptons using 140 fb −1 of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Results are obtained using the Optimal Observable method. CP-violating interactions between the Higgs boson and electroweak gauge bosons are considered in the effective field theory framework, with the interaction strength described in the HISZ basis by $\tilde{d}$, and in the Warsaw basis by c H$\tilde{W}$ , c H$\tilde{B}$ , and c H$\tilde{W}$B . No deviations relative to the Standard Model are observed, and limits are obtained on the strength parameters. The $\tilde{d}$ parameter is constrained to the interval [−0.012, 0.044] at the 95% confidence level while c H$\tilde{W}$ is constrained to [−0.24, 0.83], when considering both linear and quadratic effects of physics beyond the Standard Model.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

The Present and Future of QCD: QCD Town Meeting White Paper – An Input to the 2023 NSAC Long Range Plan

It is currently understood that there are four fundamental forces in nature: gravitational, electromagnetic, weak and strong forces. The strong force governs the interactions between quarks and gluons, elementary particles whose interactions give rise to the vast majority of visible mass in the universe. The mathematical description of the strong force is provided by the non-Abelian gauge theory Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). While QCD is an exquisite theory, constructing the nucleons and nuclei from quarks, and furthermore explaining the behavior of quarks and gluons at all energies, remain to be complex and challenging problems. Such challenges, along with the desire to understand all visible matter at the most fundamental level, position the study of QCD as a central thrust of research in nuclear science. Experimental insight into the strong force can be gained using large particle accelerator facilities, which are necessary to probe the very short distance scales over which quarks and gluons interact. The Long Range Plans (LRPs) exercise of 1989 and 1996 led directly to the construction of two world-class facilities: the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab (JLab) that is focused on studying how the structure of hadrons emerges from QCD (cold QCD research), and the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Lab (BNL) that aims at the discovery and study of a new state of matter, the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), at extremely high temperatures (hot QCD research). These past investments have produced major advances. Nucleons and nuclei are being studied with increasing precision with a unified description of the partonic structure utilizing multi-dimensional imaging. Significant progress has been made, paving the way towards a complete picture of how quarks and gluons give rise to the mass, spin, and momentum of the nucleon. In hot QCD, the QGP is created in the collisions of nuclei at RHIC and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and is observed to behave like a fluid with very low specific shear viscosity; the current goals are to understand how the fluid behavior emerges from QCD and to characterize the temperature (and chemical potential) dependence of the properties of the QGP. As this White Paper is written, current experimental programs at CEBAF, RHIC and the LHC continue to provide exciting near term opportunities to capitalize on the investments in experimental equipment and accelerator operations. Most importantly, the QCD community looks forward to the construction of the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) as a major new facility to push forward QCD research in the next decades, with significant focus on exploring the properties of gluons, the mediators of the strong force.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quantum computing universal thermalization dynamics in a (2 + 1)D Lattice Gauge Theory

Simulating non-equilibrium phenomena in strongly-interacting quantum many-body systems, including thermalization, is a promising application of near-term and future quantum computation. By performing experiments on a digital quantum computer consisting of fully-connected optically-controlled trapped ions, we study the role of entanglement in the thermalization dynamics of a Z 2 lattice gauge theory in 2+1 spacetime dimensions. Using randomized-measurement protocols, we efficiently learn a classical approximation of non-equilibrium states that yields the gap-ratio distribution and the spectral form factor of the entanglement Hamiltonian. These observables exhibit universal early-time signals for quantum chaos, a prerequisite for thermalization. Our work, therefore, establishes quantum computers as robust tools for studying universal features of thermalization in complex many-body systems, including in gauge theories.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantum chromodynamics resolution of the ATOMKI anomaly in 4 He nuclear transitions

Observations of anomalous angular correlations in electron-positron pairs produced from excited states of 4 He, 8 Be, and 12 C nuclei have been suggested as being due to the creation and subsequent decay of a new light particle of mass ~17MeV. In this work, we investigate the possibility that the source of the observed signals is a set of new excitation channels created by the 12-quark hidden-color Fock state within the 4 He nuclear wave function dubbed the “hexadiquark.” We calculate the invariant e + ⁢ e - mass spectrum for the electromagnetic transition from a new excitation of 4 He, estimating its differential and total decay width. We find that we can fit the shape of the anomalous signal with the QCD Fock state at excitation energy E* = 17.9 ± 1MeV and a Gaussian form factor for the electromagnetic decay. We address the physical issues with the fit parameters using properties of the hexadiquark state, in particular the three weakly repulsive 6 C interactions of SU⁡(3) C between diquark pairs. Experimental tests of our model are described in detail. In light of this work, we emphasize the need for independent experimental confirmation or refutation of the ATOMKI results as well as dedicated experiments to search for the proposed new excitations of 4 He and other a-cluster nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Discovering Elusive Dynamics Across Frontiers (Final Technical Report)

Profound puzzles, such as the nature of dark matter, the origins of the electroweak scale, the mechanism behind the small neutrino mass, and the strong CP problem, suggested new physics beyond the Standard Model and drove the particle physics program in search of the associated new particles. Despite extensive searches, conventional realizations of new physics have not yet provided conclusive evidence. This raised the serious possibility that new dynamics might be more elusive, perhaps due to a richer gauge and matter structure than previously considered. Notably, the existence of dark matter and advancements in understanding the naturalness problem urged exploration into sectors with complex gauge and matter structures. Through experiments like the LHC, DUNE, and small-scale experiments, the robust US HEP program played a critical role in pursuing these well-motivated but under-explored scenarios for new physics. I explored these physics opportunities in depth, focusing on novel searches and significant improvements in parameter space coverage. The elusive dynamics revealed rich information about the underlying theory and were essential in identifying observable opportunities. Understanding the observable consequences required a deep comprehension of the theory, which I also developed. The proposal included essential components aimed at coherently increasing our knowledge in well-motivated elusive dynamics models. Through research on high-quality axions, composite neutrinos, the Higgs boson as a portal to hidden strong dynamics, and new scalar potentials to generate alternative electroweak phase transitions, I focused on identifying new signatures and parameter regions in plausible elusive dynamics models. The exploration emphasized generic possibilities motivated by broad classes of elusive dynamics models. These signatures were not effectively probed previously due to various challenges such as triggering, background suppression, or experimental design. My research involved close interaction with experimental colleagues to overcome these difficulties, leveraging new theoretical and experimental possibilities. These efforts included identifying new observables such as timing information and substructure in calorimetries, new multiple-hit techniques, new scattering events, and new resonance searches in liquid argon detectors. This work created a positive feedback loop: theory and experimental work inspired each other, revealing new exciting opportunities that supported both programs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

High precision tests of QCD without scale or scheme ambiguities: The 40th anniversary of the Brodsky–Lepage–Mackenzie method

A key issue in making precise predictions in QCD is the uncertainty in setting the renormalization scale μ r and thus determining the correct values of the QCD running coupling α s (μ r ) at each order in the perturbative expansion of a QCD observable. It has often been conventional to simply set the renormalization scale to the typical scale of the process Q and vary it in the range μ r $\in$ [Q/2, 2Q] in order to estimate the theoretical error. This is the practice of Conventional Scale Setting (CSS). The resulting CSS prediction will however depend on the theorist’s choice of renormalization scheme and the resulting pQCD series will diverge factorially. It will also disagree with renormalization scale setting used in QED and electroweak theory thus precluding grand unification. A solution to the renormalization scale-setting problem is offered by the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which provides a systematic way to eliminate the renormalization scale-and-scheme dependence in perturbative calculations. The PMC method has rigorous theoretical foundations, it satisfies Renormalization Group Invariance (RGI) and preserves all self-consistency conditions derived from the renormalization group. The PMC cancels the renormalon growth, reduces to the Gell-Mann–Low scheme in the N c → 0 Abelian limit and leads to scale- and scheme-invariant results. The PMC has now been successfully applied to many high-energy processes. In this article we summarize recent developments and results in solving the renormalization scale and scheme ambiguities in perturbative QCD. In particular, we present a recently developed method the PMC ∞ and its applications, comparing the results with CSS. The method preserves the property of renormalizable SU(N)/U(1) gauge theories defined as Intrinsic Conformality (iCF). This property underlies the scale invariance of physical observables and leads to a remarkably efficient method to solve the conventional renormalization scale ambiguity at every order in pQCD. This new method reflects the underlying conformal properties displayed by pQCD at NNLO, eliminates the scheme dependence of pQCD predictions and is consistent with the general properties of the PMC. A new method to identify conformal and β-terms, which can be applied either to numerical or to theoretical calculations is also shown. We present results for the thrust and C-parameter distributions in e + e - annihilation showing errors and comparison with the CSS. We also show results for a recent innovative comparison between the CSS and the PMC ∞ applied to the thrust distribution investigating both the QCD conformal window and the QED N c → 0 limit. In order to determine the thrust distribution along the entire renormalization group flow from the highest energies to zero energy, we consider the number of flavors near the upper boundary of the conformal window. In this flavor-number regime the theory develops a perturbative infrared interacting fixed point. These results show that PMC ∞ leads to higher precision and introduces new interesting features in the PMC. In fact, this method preserves with continuity the position of the peak, showing perfect agreement with the experimental data already at NNLO. We also show a detailed comparison of the PMC ∞ with the other PMC approaches: the multi-scale-setting approach (PMCm) and the single-scale-setting approach (PMCs) by comparing their predictions for three important fully integrated quantities R e+e- , R$_Τ$ and Γ (H→$b\bar{b}$) up to the four-loop accuracy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dark matter effective field theory and an application to vector dark matter

The Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) and the Low Energy Effective Field Theory (LEFT) can be extended by adding additional spin 0, 1/2 and 1 dark matter particles which are singlets under the Standard Model (SM) gauge group. We classify all gauge invariant interactions in the Lagrangian up to terms of dimension six, and present the tree-level matching conditions between the two theories at the electroweak scale. The most widely studied dark matter models, such as those based on the Higgs portal or on kinetic mixing between the photon and a dark photon, are based on dimension-four interactions with the SM sector. We consider a model with dark vector particles with a $\mathbb{Z}_2$ symmetry, so that the lightest dark matter particle is stable. The leading interaction with the SM is through dimension-six operators involving two dark vector field-strength tensors and the electromagnetic field-strength tensor. This model is a viable dark matter model in the freeze-in scenario for a wide range of parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Higgs Inflation and the Electroweak Gauge Sector

Abstract We introduce a method that allows the Higgs to be the inflaton. The Higgs is considered as a pseudo‐Nambu‐Goldstone (pNG) boson of a global coset symmetry , which is spontaneously breaks at an energy scale . A suitable Chern−Simons (CS) interaction is given to it, with representing the dimensionless CS coupling strength and an decay constant. As a result, slow‐roll inflation occurs via ‐induced friction down a steep sinusoidal potential. To obey electroweak symmetry, the lowest‐order CS interaction is required to be quadratic in the Higgs, with the coupling strength . Higher‐order interaction terms keep the full Lagrangian nearly invariant under the approximate pNG shift symmetry. Employing the simplest symmetry coset , ‐folds of inflation occur when . Successfully explaining inflation necessitates small values of the decay constant, ; this in turn requires large , which is ruled out by electric dipole measurements. Although the electroweak hierarchy problem while achieving successful inflation, the real benefit is found in providing a different path to identifying the Higgs as the inflaton, outside the standard modified‐gravity framework.

Alexander, Stephon [Brown Center for Theoretical P↗

Evaluation of distributed process-based hydrologic model performance using only a priori information to define model inputs

Fully distributed, integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs) have seen renewed interest due to availability of better software, high performance computing facilities, and high-resolution, spatially extensive data products. ISSHMs are valuable as tools for advancing system understanding as they can resolve multiple processes defined on the plot scale including three-dimensional interaction of surface water and groundwater. Here, we evaluated the performance of an ISSHM, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), on seven diverse catchments across the continental US using widely available data products to define model inputs without calibration. We compare the ATS-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with gauge observations and MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, respectively. Using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) as metric, ATS with default data products performed reasonably well at 6 of 7 catchments for streamflow. However, in one of those 6 catchments ATS had poor performance on baseflow and ATS’s overall performance was thus judged to be inadequate despite the acceptable KGE. ATS performance for evapotranspiration was good in all 7 catchments using default data products. In the two catchments where ATS streamflow performance using default data products was not acceptable, the performance was significantly improved by using local information on subsurface properties below the soil. We also compare the model-simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration with the Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) model, a semi-distributed model that was calibrated on a catchment-by-catchment basis. Uncalibrated ATS performance is comparable to the calibrated SAC-SMA model in terms of streamflow while ATS performance is similar to or better (much better in certain catchments) in reproducing MODIS-derived evapotranspiration. Reasonably good performance of ATS without catchment-specific calibration provides new confidence in the ISSHM class of models and community data products as tools for advancing understanding of watershed function in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mutually elusive: Vectorlike antileptons and leptoquarks

We study the properties of vectorlike fermions that have the same gauge charges as the Standard Model lepton doublets, but opposite lepton number. These antileptons undergo decays mediated by heavier scalar leptoquarks, while the symmetries of this renormalizable model protect the vectorlike fermions and the leptoquarks from standard decays probed so far at colliders. We derive upper limits on the new Yukawa couplings imposed by flavor-changing processes, including 𝐵 → 𝐾⁢$v\bar{v}$ and $𝐵_𝑠$ − $\bar{𝐵}_𝑠$ mixing, and show that they are compatible with prompt antilepton decays at the LHC for wide parameter ranges. If the new particles couple predominantly to second-generation quarks, then their collider probes involve multiple jets and two taus or neutrinos, and are hampered by large backgrounds. If couplings to third-generation quarks are large, then the collider signals involve top quarks, and can be probed more efficiently at the LHC. Even in that case, both the vectorlike fermion doublet and the leptoquarks remain more elusive than in models with standard decays.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Interaction of the terrestrial and atmospheric hydrological cycles in the context of the North American southwest summer monsoon

Work under this grant has used information on precipitation and water vapor fluxes in the area of the Mexican Monsoon to analyze the regional precipitation climatology, to understand the nature of water vapor transport during the monsoon using model and observational data, and to analyze the ability of the TRMM remote sensing algorithm to characterize precipitation. An algorithm for estimating daily surface rain volumes from hourly GOES infrared images was developed and compared to radar data. Estimates were usually within a factor of two, but different linear relations between satellite reflectances and rainfall rate were obtained for each day, storm type and storm development stage. This result suggests that using TRMM sensors to calibrate other satellite IR will need to be a complex process taking into account all three of the above factors. Another study, this one of the space-time variability of the Mexican Monsoon, indicate that TRMM will have a difficult time, over the course of its expected three year lifetime, identifying the diurnal cycle of precipitation over monsoon region. Even when considering monthly rainfalls, projected satellite estimates of August rainfall show a root mean square error of 38 percent. A related examination of spatial variability of mean monthly rainfall using a novel method for removing the effects of elevation from gridded gauge data, show wide variation from a satellite-based rainfall estimates for the same time and space resolution. One issue addressed by our research, relating to the basic character of the monsoon circulation, is the determination of the source region for moisture. The monthly maps produced from our study of monsoon variability show the presence of two rainfall maxima in the analysis normalized to sea level, one in south-central Arizona associated with the Mexican monsoon maximum and one in southeastern New Mexico associated with the Gulf of Mexico. From the point of view of vertically-integrated fluxes and flux divergence of water vapor from ECMWF data, most moisture at upper levels arrives from the Gulf of Mexico, while low level moisture comes from the northern Gulf of California. Composites of ECMWF analyses for wet and dry periods (classified by rain gauge data) show that both regimes show low level moisture arriving from northern and central Gulf of California. Above 700 MB, moisture comes from both source regions and the Sierra Madre Occidental. During wet periods a longer fetch through the moist air mass above western Mexico results in a greater moisture flux into the Sonoran Desert region, while there is less moisture from the Gulf of Mexico both above and below 700 mb. Work on the grant subcontract at the University of Colorado concentrated on the development of a technique useful to TRMM combining visible, infrared and passive microwave data for measuring precipitation. Two established techniques using either visible or infrared data applied over the US Southwest correlated with gauges at the 0.58 to 0.70 level. The application of some established passive microwave techniques were less successful for a variety of reason, including problems in both the gauge and satellite data quality, sampling problems and weaknesses inherent in the algorithms themselves. A more promising solution for accurate rainfall estimation was explored using visible and infrared data to perform a cloud classification, which when combined with information about the background (e.g. Iand/ocean), was used to select the most appropriate microwave algorithm from a suite of possibilities.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗