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At least 91 records · Page 5

Observational Constraints on the Cloud Feedback Pattern Effect

Abstract Model evidence for the “pattern effect” assumes that global climate models (GCMs) faithfully simulate how clouds respond to varying sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and associated meteorological perturbations. We exploit time-invariant satellite-based estimates of the sensitivity of marine low clouds to meteorological perturbations to estimate how these clouds responded to time-varying SST patterns and meteorology between 1870 and 2014. GCMs and reanalyses provide estimates of the historical meteorological changes. Observations suggest that increasing estimated inversion strength (EIS) between 1980 and 2014 produced a negative low cloud feedback, opposite to the positive feedback expected from increasing CO 2 . This indicates that the processes responsible for marine cloud changes from 1980 to the near present are distinct from those associated with an increase in CO 2 . We also observationally constrain the difference between the historical near-global marine low cloud feedback, , and that arising from increasing CO 2 , . We find that this cloud feedback pattern effect depends strongly on time period and reanalysis dataset, and that varying changes in EIS and SST with warming explain much of its variability. Between 1980 and 2014, we estimate that (90% confidence) assuming meteorological changes from the Multiple Reanalysis Ensemble, implying a total pattern effect (that arising from all climate feedbacks) of 1.86 ± 0.45 W m −2 K −1 . This observational evidence corroborates previous quantitative estimates of the pattern effect, which heretofore relied largely upon GCM-based cloud changes. However, disparate historical meteorological changes across individual reanalyses contribute to considerable uncertainty in its magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intermodel Spread in the Pattern Effect and Its Contribution to Climate Sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Radiative feedbacks depend on the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and thus can change over time as SST patterns evolve—the so-called pattern effect. In this study, we investigate intermodel differences in the magnitude of the pattern effect and how these differences contribute to the spread in effective equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Effective ECS in CMIP5 estimated from 150-yr-long abrupt4×CO2 simulations is on average 10% higher than that estimated from the early portion (first 50 years) of those simulations, which serves as an analog for historical warming; this difference is reduced to 7% on average in CMIP6. The (negative) net radiative feedback weakens over the course of the abrupt4×CO2 simulations in the vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, but this weakening is less dramatic on average in CMIP6. For both ensembles, the total variance in the effective ECS is found to be dominated by the spread in radiative response on fast time scales, rather than the spread in feedback changes. Using Green’s functions derived from two AGCMs shows that the spread in feedbacks on fast time scales may be primarily due to differences in atmospheric model physics, whereas the spread in feedback evolution is primarily governed by differences in SST patterns. Intermodel spread in feedback evolution is well explained by differences in the relative warming in the West Pacific warm-pool regions for the CMIP5 models, but this relation fails to explain differences across the CMIP6 models, suggesting that a stronger sensitivity of extratropical clouds to surface warming may also contribute to feedback changes in CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The black carbon cycle and its role in the Earth system

Black carbon (BC) is produced by incomplete combustion of biomass by wildfires and burning of fossil fuels. BC is environmentally persistent over centuries to millennia, sequestering carbon in marine and terrestrial environments. However, its production, storage and dynamics, and therefore its role in the broader carbon cycling during global change, are poorly understood. Here, in this Review, we discuss BC cycling across the land-to-ocean continuum. Wildfires are the main source of BC, producing 128 ± 84 teragrams per year. Negative climate–BC feedbacks could arise as wildfire increases with anthropogenic warming, producing more BC, which in turn will sequester carbon, but the magnitude of these effects are unknown. Most BC is stored in terrestrial systems with some transported to the ocean via rivers and the atmosphere. However, the oceanic BC budget is not balanced, with known BC removal fluxes exceeding BC inputs. We demonstrate these observed inconsistencies using a simple ocean box model, which highlights key areas of future research. Measurements of BC mineralization and export rates along the land-to-ocean continuum and quantification of previously unexplored sources of oceanic BC are needed to close the global BC budget.

aquatic↗

Assessing Global and Local Radiative Feedbacks Based on AGCM Simulations for 1980–2014/2017

In order to avoid contamination of unobservable and uncertain effective radiative forcing (ERF) on the diagnosis of radiative feedbacks based on short-term climate variability, we verify the Kernel-Gregory feedback calculation method using atmospheric model experiments with prescribed ERF. We show that both clear-sky radiative fluxes and all-sky radiative feedbacks have a closure between model simulations and kernel derivations. A near-zero global mean net cloud feedback is found in the simulation with prescribed ERF, which results in a more negative global net climate feedback, -2 W m -2 K -1 . Consistent with AMIP6 ensemble mean results, the lapse rate feedback is the largest contributor among all feedbacks to temperature amplification over the three poles (Arctic, Antarctic and Tibetan Plateau), followed by surface albedo feedback and Planck feedback deviation from its global mean. Except for the higher surface albedo feedback in the Antarctic, other feedbacks are almost same between the Arctic and Antarctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Interaction Between Climate Forcing and Feedbacks

A Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) is used to better understand the sensitivity of aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks to changes in model processes. Aerosol forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions is mostly negative (a cooling) due to shortwave radiation, while feedbacks are positive or negative in different regions due to contrasting longwave and shortwave effects. Both forcing and feedbacks are related to the mean climate state. Higher magnitude cloud radiative effects generally mean larger magnitude net negative forcing and larger magnitude net positive feedback. Aerosol forcing is broadly related to the susceptibility of clouds to drop number. Feedbacks also related to susceptibility, but to a lesser extent and in different regions to aerosol forcing. Aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks are anti-correlated in the CAM6 PPE such that stronger negative forcing is associated with stronger positive feedbacks. Even the processes governing forcing and feedback sensitivity in the PPE are similar. These include the warm rain formation process, ice loss processes and deep convective intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining Cloud Feedback Components in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Cloud feedback remains the main source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimated by global climate models (GCMs), largely because subgrid cloud responses are parameterized in GCMs due to their coarse resolution. Here, this study examines cloud feedback in the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km) through a pair of 1-yr atmosphere-only simulations with control and +4-K sea surface temperature perturbations. SCREAM 3 km produces a positive cloud feedback that falls within but at the upper end of the range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) models and expert judgment. The positive cloud feedback arises from positive contributions from both high- and low-level clouds, with increases in high-cloud altitude and decreases in low-cloud amount and optical depth playing key roles. The stronger-than-CMIP-average feedback is mainly attributable to the high-cloud altitude feedback, owing to cloud tops rising nearly isothermally in SCREAM 3 km. The positive low-cloud amount feedback is weaker in SCREAM than in GCMs because estimated inversion strength (EIS) increases more dramatically with warming. A coarser 12-km resolution version of SCREAM exhibits a weaker positive cloud feedback than SCREAM 3 km, mainly because its low-cloud-radiative flux is more sensitive to EIS, leading to a stronger negative low-cloud amount feedback. With this process-level assessment of cloud feedback, this study reveals where SCREAM aligns with and diverges from conventional GCMs and expert assessment, providing insights to inform further model improvement and future expert assessment.

Cloud radiative effects↗

Aerosol Influences on Cloud Water: Insights From ARM EPCAPE Observations With Explainable Machine Learning

This study employs an explainable machine learning (ML) framework (XGBoost-SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis) to investigate controlling factors on cloud liquid water path (LWP) using EPCAPE observations near the California coast. Aerosols are found to be the dominant factor explaining LWP variability, surpassing meteorological factors (MFs). By isolating aerosol effects from meteorological influences, the ML reveals a negative linear relationship between LWP and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) in log space, likely driven by entrainment drying via evaporation-entrainment feedback. This aligns with the negative regime of the inverted-V relationship reported in previous studies, while no positive LWP responses are found due to a limited number of precipitating cases in EPCAPE. Furthermore, the sensitivity of LWP to Nd shows a non-linear dependence on MFs like moisture contrast between surface and free troposphere and lower-tropospheric stability. This occurs due to the interplay between the MFs' direct effects on entrainment drying and indirect effects through LWP adjustments.

EPCAPE observations↗

Transient Modeling and Simulation of a Generic Stable Salt Reactor

A SAM system-level model of a generic stable salt reactor has been developed to investigate thermal-hydraulic behavior and safety performance under steady and transient conditions. The model integrates information generated from a reactor physics analysis using PROTEUS and PERSENT, and a computation fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis using STAR-CCM+. A loose, iterative coupling scheme between PROTEUS and SAM is implemented to calculate the equilibrium power and temperature distributions in the steady-state critical core condition. The converged steady-state model is then used in PERSENT to calculate the four reactivity feedback temperature coefficients (Doppler, fuel density, coolant density, and core radial expansion) and kinetic parameters that are needed in SAM to model the temperature feedback effects in transient simulations. Within the fully enclosed liquid fuel pins, natural convection is the dominant heat transfer mechanism. The STAR-CCM+ model of the fuel pin considers conjugate heat transfer from the liquid fuel salt to the pin cladding and external reactor coolant. The CFD results of the axial and radial temperature profiles are used to empirically determine an effective fuel salt thermal conductivity in the SAM fuel pin model so that the temperatures predicted by the SAM model match as closely as possible the CFD results. In the central region of the fuel pin, the effective thermal conductivity is as high as similar to 60 times the physical fuel salt thermal conductivity. The whole-plant SAM model is then used to simulate an unprotected station blackout transient. The results of this simulation showed that the large negative fuel axial expansion reactivity feedback reduces fission power to similar to 2.4% nominal power. The core is cooled by natural circulation, which removes heat in the core to the emergency heat removal system, and ultimately, to the ambient. However, peak fuel salt and cladding temperatures can potentially reach as high as 1500 K, albeit briefly, if the shutdown mechanism fails to operate.

stable salt reactor; transient simulations; system↗

Effects of Uranium Impurities in Downblended HEU on HTGR Performance

Many advanced reactor designs require fuel enriched between 5% and 20% 235 U. To assist in producing fuel at these enrichment levels, government-owned inventories of highly enriched uranium can be downblended. However, fuel produced from these inventories contain uranium impurities that are not often found when enriching natural uranium or accounted for when modeling reactor cores. To address this concern, this work models reactor designs like the X-energy Xe-100 and the Ultra Safe Nuclear Company’s Micro Modular Reactor, and compares their performance with fuel from enriching natural uranium to fuel from downblended highly enriched uranium. This paper evaluates the models based on the effective neutron multiplication factor, k eff , effective delayed neutron fraction, β eff , and energy- and spatially dependent neutron flux, ϕ, as well as the fuel, coolant, moderator, and total reactivity temperature feedback coefficients, α F , α C , α M , and α T . The results show that the fuel from downblended highly enriched uranium inventories leads to differences in each of the metrics, especially in the keff values. In the Xe-100–like and Micro Modular Reactor–like models, k eff changes by about 1400 pcm and up to 1200 pcm, respectively. Total reactivity feedback coefficients α T are negative with the impure fuels and the keff values remain above 1 for each core configuration and fuel composition. These results show that the impure fuel compositions do not necessarily prevent achieving key design parameters, such as cycle length, or from operating in a safe condition.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Extrapolar Cloud Feedbacks as a Driver of Arctic Amplification

The role of cloud feedbacks in Arctic amplification (AA) of anthropogenic warming remains unclear. Traditional feedback analysis diagnoses the net cloud feedback as strongly positive in the tropics but either weak or negative in the Arctic, suggesting that AA would be amplified if cloud feedbacks were suppressed. However, in cloud-locking experiments using the slab ocean version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we find that suppressing cloud feedbacks results in a substantial decrease in AA under greenhouse gas forcing. We show that the increase in AA from cloud feedbacks arises from two main mechanisms: 1) the additional energy contributed by positive cloud feedbacks in the tropics leads to increased poleward moist atmospheric heat transport (AHT) which then amplifies Arctic warming; and 2) the additional Arctic warming is amplified by positive noncloud feedbacks in the region, together making extrapolar cloud feedbacks amplify AA. We also find that cloud changes can modify the strength of noncloud feedback, but that modification has a small effect on Arctic warming. We further examine the role of cloud feedbacks in AA using a moist energy balance model, which demonstrates that interactions of cloud feedbacks with moist AHT and other positive feedbacks dominate the influence of clouds on the pattern of surface warming. However, the contribution of cloud-induced changes in noncloud feedbacks on AA is relatively minor. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that traditional attributions of AA, that are based on local feedback analysis, overlook key interactions between extrapolar cloud changes, poleward AHT, and noncloud feedbacks in the Arctic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Robust multi‐loop control of a floating wind turbine

Abstract A principal challenge facing the control of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) is the problem of instability, or “negative damping,” when using blade pitch feedback to control generator speed. This closed‐loop instability can be attributed to non‐minimum phase zeros in the transfer function from blade pitch to generator speed. Standard approaches to improving stability and performance include robust tuning of control gains and introducing multiple feedback loops to respond to platform motion. Combining these approaches is nontrivial because multiple control loops complicate the impact of coupling in the system dynamics. The single‐loop approach to analyzing stability robustness neglects inter‐loop coupling, while a simplistic multi‐loop approach is highly sensitive to dimensional scaling and overestimates the robustness of the single‐loop controller. This work proposes a sensitivity representation that separates some of the natural FOWT dynamic coupling into a parallel feedback loop in the sensitivity function loop to address both of these concerns. The modified robustness measure is used with a simplified linear FOWT model to optimize scheduled multi‐loop control parameters in an automated tuning procedure. This controller is implemented for the 10‐MW Ultraflexible Smart FLoating Offshore Wind Turbine (USFLOWT) and compared against conventional single‐ and multi‐loop controllers tuned using frequency‐domain analysis and high‐fidelity OpenFAST simulations. The multi‐loop robust controller shows the highest overall performance in generator speed regulation and tower load reduction, though consideration of power quality, actuator usage, and other structural loading leads to additional trade‐offs.

Stockhouse, David↗

Multi-channel front-end ASIC for a 3D position-sensitive detector

Arrays of 3D position-sensitive detectors (3DPSD), operating at room temperature and using cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) and thallium bromide (TIBr) sensors, are suitable for gamma-ray spectrometry in many applications. One detector configuration, the 3D position-sensitive Virtual Frisch-Grid detector (VFG), is particularly advantageous for integrating into large area arrays. The signals generated inside each detector of the array are captured with the anode, cathode and four pads that enable the reconstruction of the position and energy of the ionizing interaction by measurements of amplitude and timing of the signals. For these applications, a low-noise front-end ASIC has been developed, capable of processing bipolar signals (needed because of AC-coupling of certain electrodes). The ASIC can be coupled to an ADC in order to form a compound “waveform digitizer” capable of post-processing the analog signals and determining amplitude and timing information. This paper describes a 32-channel front-end ASIC that is suitable for reading out a 3 × 3 or 4 × 4 element matrix in the VFG configuration. Each channel is composed of a low-noise charge amplifier with an adaptive continuous reset feedback circuit suitable for both positive and negative charge, a first order shaper and a single-to-differential converter output stage. Voltage and current references are all internally generated by 10-bit DACs and the chip is fully controllable with the I 2 C communication protocol. The readout channel response has been verified using the implemented injection circuit. Linear behavior up to ~75 ke ± with the gain of ~80 mV/fC, and up to ~200 ke ± with the gain of ~30 mV/fC was demonstrated. In conclusion, the first test result waveforms using a 137 Cs radioactive source on a 5 × 5 × 12 mm 3 TIBr crystal are reported.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles

Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topographic Controls on the Distribution of Summer Monsoon Precipitation over South Asia

In this work, we use a high-resolution (9 km) one-way nested regional climate modeling framework to systematically evaluate individual and aggregate roles of various components of topography in the precipitation distribution during South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). While it is not the arrival but the north-northwestward extent of summer monsoon precipitation that is regulated by the presence of elevated surfaces in South Asia, both the thermal and mechanical topographic forcing play a role. Topography not only provides mechanical uplifting and prevents dry air entrainment, it also helps regulate the strength of upper level anticyclone and tropical easterly jet, all of which are necessary to sustain a conducive environment for monsoon precipitation in the South Asian summer. In turn, precipitation feedbacks positively by accelerating the tropospheric diabatic warming through atmospheric latent heating and by maintaining the moisture supply through local recycling. Modifications in the topography, particularly the removal of the Tibetan Plateau, substantially modulates the moist flow in the lower troposphere and the anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere to an extent that the northern branch of SASM becomes substantially weaker. These changes give way to negative precipitation anomalies and eventually to an environment where the cycle of feedbacks that runs the process of monsoon progression over land becomes inefficient. The design of topographic modification experiments can influence precipitation response; therefore, we advise caution in the interpretation of these and previously reported results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamics of ENSO Phase–Locking and Its Biases in Climate Models

Here, the contributions of different oceanic feedbacks to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking are examined by deriving ENSO dynamics based on the recharge-discharge framework. In observations, the significant winter preference of the ENSO peak is determined by a strong seasonal modulation of SST growth rate, which is controlled by the zonal advective and thermodynamic feedbacks. However, the majority of climate models fail to simulate ENSO phase-locking because the contribution of zonal advective feedback to the seasonal modulation of the SST growth rate is much smaller compared to observations. The weak annual cycle of the SST-current coupling coefficient and small annual mean of the negative climatological zonal SST gradient are two factors contributing to the weak-biased seasonality of zonal advective feedback. Further analysis shows that the Niño3.4 SSTA has better phase-locking performance than Niño3 SSTA in the climate models due to the better simulation of zonal advection feedback in the Niño3.4 region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intercomparison of MJO Column Moist Static Energy and Water Vapor Budget among Six Modern Reanalysis Products

This study conducts an intercomparison of the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) and water vapor budget of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) among six modern global reanalysis products (RAs). Inter-RA differences in the mean MSE, MJO MSE anomalies, individual MSE budget terms, and their relative contributions to the propagation and maintenance of MJO MSE anomalies are examined. Also investigated is the relationship between the MJO column water vapor (CWV) budget residuals with the other CWV budget terms as well as with the two parameters that characterize cloud–radiation feedback and moisture–convection coupling. Results show a noticeable inter-RA spread in the mean-state MSE, especially its vertical structure. In all RAs, horizontal MSE advection dominates the propagation of the MJO MSE while column-integrated longwave radiative heating and vertical MSE advection are found to be the key processes for MJO maintenance. The MSE budget terms directly affected by the model parameterization schemes exhibit high uncertainty. The differences in anomalous vertical velocity mainly contribute to the large differences in vertical MSE advection among the RAs. The budget residuals show large inter-RA differences and have nonnegligible contributions to MJO maintenance and propagation in most RAs. RAs that underestimate (overestimate) the strength of cloud–radiation feedback and the convective moisture adjustment time scale tend to have positive (negative) MJO CWV budget residual, indicating the critical role of these processes in the maintenance of MJO CWV anomalies. Our results emphasize that a correct representation of the interactions among moisture, convection, cloud, and radiation is the key for an accurate depiction of the MJO MSE and CWV budget in RAs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A declining major merger fraction with redshift in the local Universe from the largest-yet catalogue of major and minor mergers in SDSS

It is difficult to accurately identify galaxy mergers and it is an even larger challenge to classify them by their mass ratio or merger stage. In previous work we used a suite of simulated mergers to create a classification technique that uses linear discriminant analysis to identify major and minor mergers. Here, we apply this technique to 1.3 million galaxies from the SDSS DR16 photometric catalogue and present the probability that each galaxy is a major or minor merger, splitting the classifications by merger stages (early, late, post-coalescence). We present publicly available imaging predictor values and all of the above classifications for one of the largest-yet samples of galaxies. We measure the major and minor merger fraction (f merg ) and build a mass-complete sample of galaxies, which we bin as a function of stellar mass and redshift. For the major mergers, we find a positive slope of fmerg with stellar mass and negative slope of f merg with redshift between stellar masses of 10.5 < M * (log M ⊙ ) < 11.6 and redshifts of 0.03 < z < 0.19. We are able to reproduce an artificial positive slope of the major merger fraction with redshift when we do not bin for mass or craft a complete sample, demonstrating the importance of mass completeness and mass binning. Further, we determine that the positive trend of the major merger fraction with stellar mass is consistent with a hierarchical assembly scenario. The negative trend with redshift requires that an additional assembly mechanism, such as baryonic feedback, dominates in the local Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗