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Landmark-Warped Emulators for Models with Misaligned Functional Response

Many computer models output functional data, and in some cases, these functional data have similar, but misaligned, shape characteristics. In this paper, we introduce a general approach for building emulators for computer models that output misaligned functional data when key values in the functional response (landmarks) can be easily identified. This approach has two main parts: modeling the aligned (using the landmarks) functional data, and modeling the functions that map the misaligned data to the aligned space (warping functions). As the warping functions are required to be monotonic, we give special attention to modeling monotonic functional response data. We discuss how our approach can be easily applied for a variety of typical emulators, such as Gaussian processes, Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines, and Bayesian additive regression trees, and how sensitivity analysis can be performed. We demonstrate our approach by building emulators for two applications: (1) a high-energy-density physics computer model used to simulate inertial confinement fusion ignition experiments, where model outputs are highly misaligned, and (2) a multiphysics continuum hydrocode used to simulate high-velocity impact experiments, where model outputs are only slightly misaligned. In case (1) traditional methods cannot be applied, while in (2) they can be applied, but the proposed method performs significantly better.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Concordance

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. This software takes a new approach towards estimating the active subspace, in which Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used as a surrogate model, and relevant calculation are obtained analytically. Using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. This software is also capable of conducting a so-called "concordance analysis", using a generalization of ASs which we refer to as "Co-Active" subspaces.

Rumsey, Kelin↗

Spatial and temporal trends and variabilities of hailstones in the United States Northern Great Plains and their possible attributions

Following on our study of hail for the Southern Great Plains (SGP), we investigated the spatial and temporal hail trends and variabilities for the Northern Great Plains (NGP) and the contributing factors for summer seasons (June–August) over 2004–2016 using two independent hail datasets. Both severe hail (1 < diameter = 2 inches) and significant severe hail (diameter > 2 inches) were examined and similar results were obtained. The hailstones in the NGP demonstrate a large interannual variability, with an overall increasing trend over 2004–2016. Spatially, the positive trend is mainly located in the western part of South Dakota and North Dakota. We find the three major dynamical factors that most likely contribute to the hail interannual variability in the NGP are the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and low-level jet (LLJ). With a thermodynamical variable integrated water vapor transport (IVT) that is strongly controlled by LLJ, the four factors can explain 76% of the hail interannual variability from the hail reports based on the multivariate linear regression. Hail occurrences are 73% higher during the cold phase of ENSO (La Nin~a) than the warm phase of ENSO (El Nin~o). When the NASH has a larger northwestward expansion or stronger intensity, more hail occurs over the NGP, because the increases of latitudinal gradient of pressure leads to a stronger LLJ. Interestingly, the important factors impacting hail interannual variability over the NGP are quite different from those for the SGP, except ENSO.

Jeong, Jong-Hoon↗

Factors Influencing Willingness to Pool in Ride-Hailing Trips

In the past decade, transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber, Lyft, and Via have established themselves as a viable transportation alternative to other modes. However, the popularity of these services has come with a fair share of criticism for their negative externalities such as increasing vehicle miles traveled and congestion in cities. Pooled ride-hailing trips, in which all or a part of two individual (or group) trips are combined in and served by a single vehicle, have the potential to reduce these externalities. Pooling of rides is an effective solution to reduce congestion and travel cost, but pooled rides still represent a small percentage of the total trips served (and miles driven) by TNCs relative to single-occupancy (and without customer) vehicle miles. Both TNCs and cities alike will benefit from understanding what factors encourage or deter pooling a ride-hailing trip. In this study, newly available Chicago transportation network provider data were explored to identify the extent to which different socioeconomic, spatiotemporal, and trip characteristics affect willingness to pool (WTP) in ride-hailing trips. Furthermore, multivariate linear regression and machine-learning models were employed to understand and predict WTP based on location, time, and trip factors. The results show intuitive trends, with income level at drop-off and pickup locations and airport trips as the most important predictors of WTP. Results from this study can help TNCs and cities devise strategies that increase pooled ride-hailing, thereby reducing adverse transportation and energy impacts from ride-hailing modes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting Postoperative Injury and Military Discharge Status After Knee Surgery in the US Army

Background: Researchers have assessed postoperative injury or disability predictors in the military setting but typically focused on 1 type of surgical procedure at a time, used relatively small sample sizes, or investigated mixed cohorts with civilian populations. Purpose: To identify the relationship between baseline variables and injury incidence or military discharge status in US Army soldiers after knee surgery. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Data were obtained from a repository containing personnel, performance, and medical records for all active-duty US Army soldiers. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to estimate the effects of numerous variables on postoperative injury or on medical discharge. Variable selection and model validation were conducted using the k-fold method. Results: A total of 7567 soldiers underwent knee surgery between 2017 and 2019. Meniscal procedures were the most common type of surgery (39%), and approximately 71% of the cohort had a postoperative injury. Significant predictors for sustaining a postoperative injury included having a previous nonknee injury (odds ratio [OR], 1.5), female sex (OR, 1.3), and Black race (OR, 1.2). Within 4 years after surgery, 17% of soldiers were discharged from the military because of knee-related disability. Significant predictors for discharge from duty included enlisted rank (OR, 2.3), recent fitness test failure (OR, 1.9), number of previous knee surgeries (OR, 1.7), and having a previous nonknee injury (OR, 1.6). Conclusion: After knee surgery, nearly three-fourths of the soldiers in this cohort sustained a postoperative injury and almost one-fifth of soldiers were medically discharged from the military within 4 years. This study identified variables that indicate statistically increased risk for these postoperative outcomes and highlighted potentially modifiable factors.

Orthopedics↗

Contraceptive Sabotage and Contraceptive Use at the Time of Pregnancy: An Analysis of People with a Recent Live Birth in the United States

Contraceptive sabotage and other forms of intimate partner violence (IPV) can interfere with contraceptive use. We used 2012 to 2015 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System data from 8,981 people residing in five states who reported that when they became pregnant, they were not trying to get pregnant. We assessed the relationships between ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (both by the current partner) and contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy using multivariable logistic regression. We also assessed the joint associations between physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy and ever experienced contraceptive sabotage with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy. Few people ever experienced contraceptive sabotage (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4, 2.3) or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (2.8%; 95% CI: 2.3, 3.3). In models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, and state of residence, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was associated with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.82), but not with physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.46, 1.02). When examining the joint association, compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was significantly related to contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (aOR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.95). However, it was not associated with experiencing physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.45, 1.04) or with experiencing both contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.42, 3.50), compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy. Our study highlights that current partner contraceptive sabotage may motivate those not trying to get pregnant to use contraception; however, all people in our sample still experienced a pregnancy.

Huber-Krum, Sarah↗

COVID-19 prevention at institutions of higher education, United States, 2020–2021: implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Background, In early 2020, following the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, institutions of higher education (IHEs) across the United States rapidly pivoted to online learning to reduce the risk of on-campus virus transmission. We explored IHEs’ use of this and other nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the subsequent pandemic-affected academic year 2020–2021. Methods, From December 2020 to June 2021, we collected publicly available data from official webpages of 847 IHEs, including all public (n = 547) and a stratified random sample of private four-year institutions (n = 300). Abstracted data included NPIs deployed during the academic year such as changes to the calendar, learning environment, housing, common areas, and dining; COVID-19 testing; and facemask protocols. We performed weighted analysis to assess congruence with the October 29, 2020, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance for IHEs. For IHEs offering ≥50% of courses in person, we used weighted multivariable linear regression to explore the association between IHE characteristics and the summated number of implemented NPIs. Results, Overall, 20% of IHEs implemented all CDC-recommended NPIs. The most frequently utilized NPI was learning environment changes (91%), practiced as one or more of the following modalities: distance or hybrid learning opportunities (98%), 6-ft spacing (60%), and reduced class sizes (51%). Additionally, 88% of IHEs specified facemask protocols, 78% physically changed common areas, and 67% offered COVID-19 testing. Among the 33% of IHEs offering ≥50% of courses in person, having < 1000 students was associated with having implemented fewer NPIs than IHEs with ≥ 1000 students. Conclusions, Only 1 in 5 IHEs implemented all CDC recommendations, while a majority implemented a subset, most commonly changes to the classroom, facemask protocols, and COVID-19 testing. IHE enrollment size and location were associated with degree of NPI implementation. Additional research is needed to assess adherence to NPI implementation in IHE settings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Relationship Between Radiation Dose and Markers of Insulin Resistance and Inflammation in Atomic Bomb Survivors

Abstract Context In recent studies of childhood cancer survivors, diabetes has been considered a late effect associated with high therapeutic doses of radiation therapy. Our recent study of atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors also suggested an association between radiation dose and diabetes incidence, with exposure city and age at exposure as radiation dose effect modifiers. Insulin resistance mediated by systemic inflammation and abnormal body composition has been suggested as a possible primary mechanism for the incidence of diabetes after total body irradiation; however, no studies have examined low to moderate radiation exposure (<4 Gy) and insulin resistance in A-bomb survivors. Objective To examine the association between radiation dose and markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Methods This study investigated 3152 survivors who underwent a health examination between 2008 and 2012 and who were younger than 15 years at exposure. Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the radiation effects on levels of markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Results Radiation dose was significantly and positively associated with levels of C-reactive protein, triglycerides, homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-β), and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) after adjustment for relevant covariates including sex, city, and age at exposure. Adiponectin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were also associated significantly and negatively with radiation dose. However, city was not a dose modifier of the radiation response on these markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Conclusion Insulin resistance might be a possible factor in radiation-related diabetes incidence in A-bomb survivors.

Endocrinology & Metabolism↗

Willingness to Receive mHealth Services Among Patients with Diabetes on Chronic Follow-up in Public Hospitals in Eastern Ethiopia: Multicenter Mixed-Method Study

Background: Management of diabetes requires a long-term care strategy, including support for adherence to a healthy lifestyle and treatment. Exploring the willingness of patients with diabetes to receive mHealth services is essential for designing efficient and effective services. This study aimedto determine willingness to receive mHealth services and associated factors, as well as explore the barriers to receive mHealth services among patients with diabetes. Methods: A multicenter mixed-method study was employed from September 1 to November 30, 2022. For the quantitative part, a total of 365 patients with diabetes receiving chronic follow-up at three public hospitals were enrolled. Data were gathered using structured questionnaires administered by interviewers, entered into Epi-data version 4.6, and analyzed using Stata version 17. A binary and multivariable logistic regression model was computed to identify the associated factors. For qualitative, eight key informants and seven in-depth interviews were conducted. After verbatim transcription and translation, the data were thematically analyzed using ATLAS.ti V. 7.5. Results: Overall, 77.3% had access to a mobile phone, and 74.5% of them were willing to receive mHealth services. Higher odds of willingness to receive mHealth services were reported among patients with an age below 35 years [AOR = 4.11 (1.15– 14.71)], attended formal education [AOR = 2.63 (1.19– 5.77)], without comorbidity [AOR = 3.6 (1.54– 8.41)], < 1-hour travel to reach a health facility [AOR = 3.57 (1.03– 12.36)], answered unknown calls [AOR = 2.3 (1.04– 5.13)], and were satisfied with health-care provider service [AOR = 2.44 (1.04– 5.72)]. In the qualitative part, infrastructure, health facilities, socioeconomic factors, and patients’ behavioral factors were major identified barriers to receiving mHealth services. Conclusion: In this study, the willingness to receive mHealth services for those who have access to mobile phones increased. Additionally, the study highlighted common barriers to receiving mHealth services.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TBASS: A Robust Adaptation of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces

The R package TBASS is an extension of the BASS package created by Francom and Sansó (2019). The package is used to fit a Bayesian multivariate adaptive spline to a dataset that either follows a Student’s t-distribution or has outliers. Much of the framework for TBASS is adapted from the concepts of Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS), specifically the work done by Denison, Mallick, and Smith (1998). The spline function is fit using a Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm,. By including this more robust generalization, a dataset with outliers can be accurately fit using the BMARS model, without the possibility of overfitting or variance inflation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-Infused AI/ML Based Digital-Twin Framework for Flow-Induced-Vibration Damage Prediction in a Nuclear Reactor Heat Exchanger

This report summarizes some of the ongoing work related to the development of an expert-elicitation-digital-twin framework for real time damage state prediction in heat exchanger components of a nuclear reactor. The framework is targeted towards predicting damage associated with coupled low cycle fatigue (associated with regular heat-up, cool-down and power operation transients) and high cycle fatigue (associated with flow induced vibration transients). The overall framework will be based on a NoSQL based database, physics-infused-geometry-dependent virtual-sensor data, different AI/ML techniques-based data-driven-predictive-model applications (Apps) and real-time plant sensor measurements available through few existing sensors. Towards this overall goal, this report updates some of the ongoing work, such as on implementation of a NoSQL Database (such as MongoDB), FE based heat transfer analysis of a heat exchanger (e.g. of a PWR steam generator) for generating geometry-dependent virtual sensor data and evaluation of various AI/ML models such as based on multivariate linear regression, ensembled decision-tree based Random-Forest and Gradient-Boosting regression and high-dimensional-kernel-function-transformation based Support-Vector-Machine regression models. The AI/ML models were evaluated for predicting multi-time-series thermal states at thousands of 3D point-clouds

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Determination of the uranium content of storage containers filled with waste from Fukushima using cosmic ray data

This report presents the results of an experimental study of cosmic ray tomography aimed at determining the uranium contents of waste containers filled with waste from Fukushima. Data, taken using the Giant Muon Tracker, were obtained on a set of scenes constructed from blocks of polyethylene, concrete, iron, and lead. The data have been provided to Toshiba and have been used to evaluate the composition of scenes using multivariate linear regression.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

COVID-19 vaccination status, side effects, and perceptions among breast cancer survivors: a cross-sectional study in China

Introduction Breast cancer is the most prevalent malignancy in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, vaccination data of this population are limited. Methods A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 vaccination was conducted in China. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination status. Results Of 2,904 participants, 50.2% were vaccinated with acceptable side effects. Most of the participants received inactivated virus vaccines. The most common reason for vaccination was “fear of infection” (56.2%) and “workplace/government requirement” (33.1%). While the most common reason for nonvaccination was “worry that vaccines cause breast cancer progression or interfere with treatment” (72.9%) and “have concerns about side effects or safety” (39.6%). Patients who were employed (odds ratio, OR = 1.783, p = 0.015), had stage I disease at diagnosis (OR = 2.008, p = 0.019), thought vaccines could provide protection (OR = 1.774, p = 0.007), thought COVID-19 vaccines were safe, very safe, not safe, and very unsafe (OR = 2.074, p < 0.001; OR = 4.251, p < 0.001; OR = 2.075, p = 0.011; OR = 5.609, p = 0.003, respectively) were more likely to receive vaccination. Patients who were 1–3 years, 3–5 years, and more than 5 years after surgery (OR = 0.277, p < 0.001; OR = 0.277, p < 0.001, OR = 0.282, p < 0.001, respectively), had a history of food or drug allergies (OR = 0.579, p = 0.001), had recently undergone endocrine therapy (OR = 0.531, p < 0.001) were less likely to receive vaccination. Conclusion COVID-19 vaccination gap exists in breast cancer survivors, which could be filled by raising awareness and increasing confidence in vaccine safety during cancer treatment, particularly for the unemployed individuals.

Xu, Yali↗

Sex Differences in Odds of Brain Metastasis and Outcomes by Brain Metastasis Status after Advanced Melanoma Diagnosis

Sex differences in cancer are well-established. However, less is known about sex differences in diagnosis of brain metastasis and outcomes among patients with advanced melanoma. Using a United States nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database, we evaluated patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma from 1 January 2011–30 July 2022 who received an oncologist-defined rule-based first line of therapy (n = 7969, 33% female according to EHR, 35% w/documentation of brain metastases). The odds of documented brain metastasis diagnosis were calculated using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, practice type, diagnosis period (pre/post-2017), ECOG performance status, anatomic site of melanoma, group stage, documentation of non-brain metastases prior to first-line of treatment, and BRAF positive status. Real-world overall survival (rwOS) and progression-free survival (rwPFS) starting from first-line initiation were assessed by sex, accounting for brain metastasis diagnosis as a time-varying covariate using the Cox proportional hazards model, with the same adjustments as the logistic model, excluding group stage, while also adjusting for race, socioeconomic status, and insurance status. Adjusted analysis revealed males with advanced melanoma were 22% more likely to receive a brain metastasis diagnosis compared to females (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09, 1.36). Males with brain metastases had worse rwOS (aHR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.28) but not worse rwPFS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.14) following first-line treatment initiation. Among patients with advanced melanoma who were not diagnosed with brain metastases, survival was not different by sex (rwOS aHR: 1.06 [95% CI: 0.97, 1.16], rwPFS aHR: 1.02 [95% CI: 0.94, 1.1]). This study showed that males had greater odds of brain metastasis and, among those with brain metastasis, poorer rwOS compared to females, while there were no sex differences in clinical outcomes for those with advanced melanoma without brain metastasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dilution impacts on smoke aging: evidence in Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) data

Abstract. Biomass burning emits vapors and aerosols into the atmosphere that can rapidly evolve as smoke plumes travel downwind and dilute, affecting climate- and health-relevant properties of the smoke. To date, theory has been unable to explain observed variability in smoke evolution. Here, we use observational data from the Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) field campaign and show that initial smoke organic aerosol mass concentrations can help predict changes in smoke aerosol aging markers, number concentration, and number mean diameter between 40–262 nm. Because initial field measurements of plumes are generally >10 min downwind, smaller plumes will have already undergone substantial dilution relative to larger plumes and have lower concentrations of smoke species at these observations closest to the fire. The extent to which dilution has occurred prior to the first observation is not a directly measurable quantity. We show that initial observed plume concentrations can serve as a rough indicator of the extent of dilution prior to the first measurement, which impacts photochemistry, aerosol evaporation, and coagulation. Cores of plumes have higher concentrations than edges. By segregating the observed plumes into cores and edges, we find evidence that particle aging, evaporation, and coagulation occurred before the first measurement. We further find that on the plume edges, the organic aerosol is more oxygenated, while a marker for primary biomass burning aerosol emissions has decreased in relative abundance compared to the plume cores. Finally, we attempt to decouple the roles of the initial concentrations and physical age since emission by performing multivariate linear regression of various aerosol properties (composition, size) on these two factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing Signal-Based Inertia and Frequency Response Estimation for Power Systems with High Penetration of Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

Power system inertia is the inherent capability of a power system to resist changes in its frequency during disturbances. Real-time inertia estimation technology has become more important due to the low-inertia issues caused by the increasing integration levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs) from renewable energy; however, existing inertia estimation methods hardly consider multiple frequency response controls that act within the same time frame as conventional inertial response, thus making measured inertia values vary under different testing conditions. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a novel real-time estimation method to simultaneously estimate a power system's inertia constant and frequency response droop constant using a well-designed probing signal. First, we formulate the inertia and frequency response model of a power system with IBRs. Second, through the integration and manipulation of the developed model, we propose a multivariate linear regression- based estimation method that is resilient to measurement noise. Third, we design a probing signal that can be injected by IBRs to incite the required transients for estimation. Finally, we validate the proposed estimation method through comprehensive power- hardware-in-the-loop experiments using inverter hardware and a realistic island power system model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the inertia and droop value of the power system with grid-following IBRs and grid-forming IBRs with virtual synchronous machine control.

frequency response↗

A machine learning-based fast frequency response control for a VSC-HVDC system

An HVDC system can realize a very fast frequency response to the disturbed system under a contingency because its active power control is decoupled from the frequency deviation. However, most of existing HVDC frequency control strategies are coupled with system primary frequency control and secondary frequency control. Since the traditional system frequency control is dominated by the thermal generators, the advantage of the fast response of the HVDC system is not made fully used. The development of a frequency response estimation based on a machine learning algorithm provides another approach to improve the frequency response capability of the HVDC system. Different from other frequency deviation tracking strategies, a machine learning based HVDC frequency response control can directly increase the power flow of a HVDC system by estimation of the system generator or load lost. In this paper, a fast frequency response control using a HVDC system for a large power system disturbance based on the multivariate random forest regression (MRFR) algorithm is proposed. The simulation is carried out with an integrated power system model based on the North American interconnections. The simulation results indicate that the proposed MRFR based frequency response control can significantly improve the frequency low point during an event, while stabilizing the frequency in advance.

42 ENGINEERING↗