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DOE OSTI2026

Uncertain quantum computing futures and potential energy and physical resource impacts at scale

Considerable attention has recently focused on the vast energy and water demands of supercomputing, namely large-scale data centers that underpin artificial intelligence (AI), one of the great disruptors of contemporary society. Looking ahead some years from now, quantum computing is poised to disrupt established computing paradigms once again. Scientists and engineers are now working intensely to bring this century-old dream of physicists to fruition. Yet, as quantum computers begin to be integrated with classical supercomputing architectures, the implications for energy and physical resource use also need to be understood, especially how they compare to today’s AI data centers. These impacts have not yet been quantified by the research community – a notable gap in the literature, even if commercial-scale deployment of Quantum-Accelerated Computing Infrastructure (QuACI) is not expected for a few more years. This study is the first to conduct such an assessment. Using publicly available information from academic sources and private industry, we characterize multiple configurations of superconducting qubit-based, fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) that could plausibly be deployed at scale in the 2030s and into the 2040s. By parameterizing these FTQC systems at a process level, we conduct a prospective scenario analysis to quantify their energy and physical resource needs. While these estimates are uncertain, given the current state of quantum technologies and their unknown future trajectories, important insights can already be drawn. One key finding is that while the electricity needs for a fleet of FTQCs are within the bounds of previous modeling studies that have explored high electricity demand futures, the needs for certain physical resources, namely water and helium-3, could pose bottlenecks to QuACI scale-up.

Computing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring code portability solutions for HEP with a particle tracking test code

Traditionally, high energy physics (HEP) experiments have relied on x86 CPUs for the majority of their significant computing needs. As the field looks ahead to the next generation of experiments such as DUNE and the High-Luminosity LHC, the computing demands are expected to increase dramatically. To cope with this increase, it will be necessary to take advantage of all available computing resources, including GPUs from different vendors. A broad landscape of code portability tools—including compiler pragma-based approaches, abstraction libraries, and other tools—allow the same source code to run efficiently on multiple architectures. In this paper, we use a test code taken from a HEP tracking algorithm to compare the performance and experience of implementing different portability solutions. While in several cases portable implementations perform close to the reference code version, we find that the performance varies significantly depending on the details of the implementation. Achieving optimal performance is not easy, even for relatively simple applications such as the test codes considered in this work. Several factors can affect the performance, such as the choice of the memory layout, the memory pinning strategy, and the compiler used. The compilers and tools are being actively developed, so future developments may be critical for their deployment in HEP experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

PyJMAK: An Open-Source Python Toolkit for Modeling Solid-State Metallurgical Phase Transformations

Accurate prediction of metallurgical phase transformations is an essential basis for autonomous optimization and rapid part qualification. Several methods can be used to estimate the evolution of phase fractions such as JMAK kinetics-based models, phase-field models, thermodynamic models, and data-driven machine learning models. Thermodynamic and phase-field-based methodologies solve multiphysics equations requiring numerous calibration parameters and significant computational resources. As a result, the computation domain is limited to a point or on order of micron-meters. The data-driven models rely on large datasets from experiments and simulations. While the JMAK model only provides information about phase fraction evolution, it can predict this evolution in near real-time using thermal history and thermodynamic data without restriction on the domain. JMAK models have been popularly used by researchers to model phase transformations occuring during additive manufacturing or over arbitrary temperature profiles. Commercial proprietary software such as Abaqus and Ansys or closed-source in-house implementations offer the ability to model JMAK based kinetics to predict phase transformation. However, these software packages are not open-source or freely available for use and development in conjunction with manufacturing machines, sensors, and machine learning algorithms. In addition, the use of the model is restricted by a license token. In contrast, given temperature profiles at multiple points in the domain, this Python-based PyJMAK model can compute phase evolution in parallel due to its stand-alone modular, voxel-based structure, and it can be executed on high-performance computing resources without any license restrictions.

Prabhune, Bhagya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Data Sharing in Radiobiology; Towards FAIR

The value of scientific data depends on their findability, accessibility, integrability and reusability according to the FAIR principles. Together with the sustainability of data preservation and access, these principles underpin the long term benefits of scientific research. Within the domain of radiobiology we have a huge array of data types, themes and complexities which make standardisation of metadata, data structure and data integration very challenging. Moreover, it is clear that, for example, in the area of disaster preparedness, the ready discovery and availability of multiple types of data, for example on biological effects of exposure, climatology, ecology, human behavioural and attitudinal studies, is important for an integrated scientific approach. Because these data are spread over many databases, journal supplementary information resources and even the computers of the investigators, their discovery and reuse can be challenging. Despite exhortations from funding agencies and scientific institutions over the past two decades there is still a serious deficit in the willingness and in some cases the ability of investigators to share data, and although much may not be formally „Public domain“, information about the existence of the data, their metadata, and how to obtain them should always be available. We report the progress of work on three databases, the STORE and the NASA GeneLab and LSDA repositories to leverage the Radiation Biology Ontology (RBO), a structured terminology for metadata that can be used by all radiation biology-relevant databases to unite federated and automated data searches across multiple databases, for example using web services, and through semantic web technologies supporting data discovery. The initial primary use-cases for RBO were archiving data in the STORE database (https://www.storedb.org/), the repository used for the RadoNorm and Pianoforte Projects among others, and in the NASA Open Science Data Repository (https://osdr.nasa.gov/bio). The scope of radiobiology research ranges from basic physics to radiation oncology to sociolegal studies; no existing ontology had the necessary breadth or depth to fulfill this need. In addition, a formal ontology has the advantage of being usable for machine learning and, importantly, for tasks like data integration, knowledge extraction from the scientific literature and for query extension and data classification. Standardisation of metadata is one of the primary objectives of the FAIR principles for open data; RBO is an important landmark for FAIR-compliant radiation biology data sharing. The RBO is developed using the open-source tools of GitHub and the OBO Foundry-led Ontology Development Kit, and published through GitHub and the NIH/NCBI BioPortal website. This initial phase of concept modeling has yielded an ontology that has more than 300 declared concepts, with more than 3500 additional concepts imported from other OBO Foundry ontologies with relevance to radiation biology (for example, concepts from the ISO standard Basic Formal Ontology, the Environment Ontology and the Gene Ontology). We welcome input into the development of RBO and encourage its adoption.

ontologies↗

NASA NTRS2023

Data Sharing in Radiation Biology: Towards FAIR

The value of scientific data depends on their findability, accessibility, integrability and reusability according to the FAIR principles. Together with the sustainability of data preservation and access, these principles underpin the long term benefits of scientific research. Within the domain of radiobiology we have a huge array of data types, themes and complexities which make standardisation of metadata, data structure and data integration very challenging. Moreover, it is clear that, for example, in the area of disaster preparedness, the ready discovery and availability of multiple types of data, for example on biological effects of exposure, climatology, ecology, human behavioural and attitudinal studies, is important for an integrated scientific approach. Because these data are spread over many databases, journal supplementary information resources and even the computers of the investigators, their discovery and reuse can be challenging. Despite exhortations from funding agencies and scientific institutions over the past two decades there is still a serious deficit in the willingness and in some cases the ability of investigators to share data, and although much may not be formally "Public domain“, information about the existence of the data, their metadata, and how to obtain them should always be available. We report the progress of work on three databases, the STORE and the NASA GeneLab and LSDA repositories to leverage the Radiation Biology Ontology (RBO), a structured terminology for metadata that can be used by all radiation biology-relevant databases to unite federated and automated data searches across multiple databases, for example using web services, and through semantic web technologies supporting data discovery. The initial primary use-cases for RBO were archiving data in the STORE database (https://www.storedb.org/), the repository used for the RadoNorm and Pianoforte Projects among others, and in the NASA Open Science Data Repository (https://osdr.nasa.gov/bio). The scope of radiobiology research ranges from basic physics to radiation oncology to sociolegal studies; no existing ontology had the necessary breadth or depth to fulfill this need. In addition, a formal ontology has the advantage of being usable for machine learning and, importantly, for tasks like data integration, knowledge extraction from the scientific literature and for query extension and data classification. Standardisation of metadata is one of the primary objectives of the FAIR principles for open data; RBO is an important landmark for FAIR-compliant radiation biology data sharing. The RBO is developed using the open-source tools of GitHub and the OBO Foundry-led Ontology Development Kit, and published through GitHub and the NIH/NCBI BioPortal website. This initial phase of concept modeling has yielded an ontology that has more than 300 declared concepts, with more than 3500 additional concepts imported from other OBO Foundry ontologies with relevance to radiation biology (for example, concepts from the ISO standard Basic Formal Ontology, the Environment Ontology and the Gene Ontology). We welcome input into the development of RBO and encourage its adoption.

ontologies↗

NASA NTRS2004

Data Grid Management Systems

The "Grid" is an emerging infrastructure for coordinating access across autonomous organizations to distributed, heterogeneous computation and data resources. Data grids are being built around the world as the next generation data handling systems for sharing, publishing, and preserving data residing on storage systems located in multiple administrative domains. A data grid provides logical namespaces for users, digital entities and storage resources to create persistent identifiers for controlling access, enabling discovery, and managing wide area latencies. This paper introduces data grids and describes data grid use cases. The relevance of data grids to digital libraries and persistent archives is demonstrated, and research issues in data grids and grid dataflow management systems are discussed.

Moore, Reagan W.↗

NASA NTRS1988

TASKILLAN - A simulation to predict the validity of multiple resource models of aviation workload

A study to establish the validity of five predictive models of workload in the context of a controlled helicopter mission, TASKILLAN, is presented. Ten subjects performed simulations involving combinations of a low level flight task with three cognitive side tasks pertaining to navigation, spatial awareness, and computation. It is found that the best predictors of subjective workload are relativly simple models that integrate the total demands of task over time.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climatespark: an In-Memory Distributed Computing Framework for Big Climate Data Analytics

The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple- dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.

Hu, Fei↗

NASA NTRS1992

Automation and robotics considerations for a lunar base

An envisioned lunar outpost shares with other NASA missions many of the same criteria that have prompted the development of intelligent automation techniques with NASA. Because of increased radiation hazards, crew surface activities will probably be even more restricted than current extravehicular activity in low Earth orbit. Crew availability for routine and repetitive tasks will be at least as limited as that envisioned for the space station, particularly in the early phases of lunar development. Certain tasks are better suited to the untiring watchfulness of computers, such as the monitoring and diagnosis of multiple complex systems, and the perception and analysis of slowly developing faults in such systems. In addition, mounting costs and constrained budgets require that human resource requirements for ground control be minimized. This paper provides a glimpse of certain lunar base tasks as seen through the lens of automation and robotic (A&R) considerations. This can allow a more efficient focusing of research and development not only in A&R, but also in those technologies that will depend on A&R in the lunar environment.

Sliwa, Nancy E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Structural design using equilibrium programming formulations

Solutions to increasingly larger structural optimization problems are desired. However, computational resources are strained to meet this need. New methods will be required to solve increasingly larger problems. The present approaches to solving large-scale problems involve approximations for the constraints of structural optimization problems and/or decomposition of the problem into multiple subproblems that can be solved in parallel. An area of game theory, equilibrium programming (also known as noncooperative game theory), can be used to unify these existing approaches from a theoretical point of view (considering the existence and optimality of solutions), and be used as a framework for the development of new methods for solving large-scale optimization problems. Equilibrium programming theory is described, and existing design techniques such as fully stressed design and constraint approximations are shown to fit within its framework. Two new structural design formulations are also derived. The first new formulation is another approximation technique which is a general updating scheme for the sensitivity derivatives of design constraints. The second new formulation uses a substructure-based decomposition of the structure for analysis and sensitivity calculations. Significant computational benefits of the new formulations compared with a conventional method are demonstrated.

Scotti, Stephen J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

NASA NTRS1984

Remote sensing research for agricultural applications

Materials and methods used to characterize selected soil properties and agricultural crops in San Joaquin County, California are described. Results show that: (1) the location and widths of TM bands are suitable for detecting differences in selected soil properties; (2) the number of TM spectral bands allows the quantification of soil spectral curve form and magnitude; and (3) the spatial and geometric quality of TM data allows for the discrimination and quantification of within field variability of soil properties. The design of the LANDSAT based multiple crop acreage estimation experiment for the Idaho Department of Water Resources is described including the use of U.C. Berkeley's Survey Modeling Planning Model. Progress made on Peditor software development on MIDAS, and cooperative computing using local and remote systems is reported as well as development of MIDAS microcomputer systems.

Colwell, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Using APEX to Model Anticipated Human Error: Analysis of a GPS Navigational Aid

The interface development process can be dramatically improved by predicting design facilitated human error at an early stage in the design process. The approach we advocate is to SIMULATE the behavior of a human agent carrying out tasks with a well-specified user interface, ANALYZE the simulation for instances of human error, and then REFINE the interface or protocol to minimize predicted error. This approach, incorporated into the APEX modeling architecture, differs from past approaches to human simulation in Its emphasis on error rather than e.g. learning rate or speed of response. The APEX model consists of two major components: (1) a powerful action selection component capable of simulating behavior in complex, multiple-task environments; and (2) a resource architecture which constrains cognitive, perceptual, and motor capabilities to within empirically demonstrated limits. The model mimics human errors arising from interactions between limited human resources and elements of the computer interface whose design falls to anticipate those limits. We analyze the design of a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device used for radical and navigational decisions in small yacht recalls. The analysis demonstrates how human system modeling can be an effective design aid, helping to accelerate the process of refining a product (or procedure).

VanSelst, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2021

Expanding the application of soil moisture monitoring systems through regression-based transformation

Relative to other geophysical variables, soil moisture (SM) estimates derived from land surface models (LSMs) and land data assimilation systems (LDAS) are difficult to transfer between platforms and applications. This difficulty stems from the highly model-dependent nature of LSM SM estimates and differences in the vertical support of discretized SM values. As a result, operational SM estimates generated by one LSM (or LDAS) cannot generally be directly applied to a hydrologic monitoring or forecast system designed around a second LSM. This lack of transferability is particularly problematic for LDAS applications, where the time, expertise, and computational resources required to generate an operational LDAS analysis cannot be practically duplicated for every LSM-specific application. Here, we develop a set of simple regression tools for translating SM estimates between LSMs and multiple LDAS analyses. Results demonstrate that simple multivariate linear regression - utilizing independent variables based on multi-layer and temporally lagged SM estimates - can significantly improve upon baseline transformation approaches using direct percentile matching. The proposed regression approaches are effective for both the LSM-to-LSM and LDAS-to-LDAS transformation of multi-layer SM percentiles. Application of this approach will expand the utility of existing, high-quality (but LSM-specific) operational sources of SM information like the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive Level-4 Soil Moisture product.

Soil Moisture↗

NASA NTRS2012

On Shaft Data Acquisition System (OSDAS)

On Shaft Data Acquisition System (OSDAS) is a rugged, compact, multiple-channel data acquisition computer system that is designed to record data from instrumentation while operating under extreme rotational centrifugal or gravitational acceleration forces. This system, which was developed for the Heritage Fuel Air Turbine Test (HFATT) program, addresses the problem of recording multiple channels of high-sample-rate data on most any rotating test article by mounting the entire acquisition computer onboard with the turbine test article. With the limited availability of slip ring wires for power and communication, OSDAS utilizes its own resources to provide independent power and amplification for each instrument. Since OSDAS utilizes standard PC technology as well as shared code interfaces with the next-generation, real-time health monitoring system (SPARTAA Scalable Parallel Architecture for Real Time Analysis and Acquisition), this system could be expanded beyond its current capabilities, such as providing advanced health monitoring capabilities for the test article. High-conductor-count slip rings are expensive to purchase and maintain, yet only provide a limited number of conductors for routing instrumentation off the article and to a stationary data acquisition system. In addition to being limited to a small number of instruments, slip rings are prone to wear quickly, and introduce noise and other undesirable characteristics to the signal data. This led to the development of a system capable of recording high-density instrumentation, at high sample rates, on the test article itself, all while under extreme rotational stress. OSDAS is a fully functional PC-based system with 48 channels of 24-bit, high-sample-rate input channels, phase synchronized, with an onboard storage capacity of over 1/2-terabyte of solid-state storage. This recording system takes a novel approach to the problem of recording multiple channels of instrumentation, integrated with the test article itself, packaged in a compact/rugged form factor, consuming limited power, all while rotating at high turbine speeds.

Pedings, Marc↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constant Overhead Entanglement Distillation via Scrambling

High-fidelity quantum entanglement enables key quantum networking capabilities such as secure communication and distributed quantum computing, but long-distance entanglement distribution is limited by noise and loss. Entanglement distillation protocols address this problem by extracting high-fidelity Bell pairs from multiple noisy ones. The primary objective is minimizing the resource overhead: the number of noisy input pairs needed to distill each high-fidelity output pair. While protocols achieving optimal overhead are known in theory, they often require complex decoding operations that make practical implementation challenging. We circumvent this challenge by introducing protocols that use quantum scrambling—the spreading of quantum information under chaotic dynamics—through random Clifford operations. Based on this scrambling mechanism, our protocol maintains asymptotically constant overhead, independent of the desired output error rate $\bar{𝜖}$ , and can be implemented with shallow quantum circuits of depth 𝑂⁡(poly log log⁡ $\bar{𝜖}$ −1 ) and memory 𝑂⁡(poly log⁡ $\bar{𝜖}$ −1 ). Our protocol remains effective even with noisy quantum gates. By incorporating error correction, our protocol achieves state-of-the-art performance: starting with pairs of 10% initial infidelity, we require only seven noisy inputs per output pair to distill a single Bell pair with infidelity $\bar{𝜖}$ =10 −12 , substantially outperforming existing schemes. We demonstrate the utility of our protocols for quantum repeater networks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1993

Proposed data compression schemes for the Galileo S-band contingency mission

The Galileo spacecraft is currently on its way to Jupiter and its moons. In April 1991, the high gain antenna (HGA) failed to deploy as commanded. In case the current efforts to deploy the HGA fails, communications during the Jupiter encounters will be through one of two low gain antenna (LGA) on an S-band (2.3 GHz) carrier. A lot of effort has been and will be conducted to attempt to open the HGA. Also various options for improving Galileo's telemetry downlink performance are being evaluated in the event that the HGA will not open at Jupiter arrival. Among all viable options the most promising and powerful one is to perform image and non-image data compression in software onboard the spacecraft. This involves in-flight re-programming of the existing flight software of Galileo's Command and Data Subsystem processors and Attitude and Articulation Control System (AACS) processor, which have very limited computational and memory resources. In this article we describe the proposed data compression algorithms and give their respective compression performance. The planned image compression algorithm is a 4 x 4 or an 8 x 8 multiplication-free integer cosine transform (ICT) scheme, which can be viewed as an integer approximation of the popular discrete cosine transform (DCT) scheme. The implementation complexity of the ICT schemes is much lower than the DCT-based schemes, yet the performances of the two algorithms are indistinguishable. The proposed non-image compression algorith is a Lempel-Ziv-Welch (LZW) variant, which is a lossless universal compression algorithm based on a dynamic dictionary lookup table. We developed a simple and efficient hashing function to perform the string search.

Cheung, Kar-Ming↗

NASA NTRS2005

Large-Scale NASA Science Applications on the Columbia Supercluster

Columbia, NASA's newest 61 teraflops supercomputer that became operational late last year, is a highly integrated Altix cluster of 10,240 processors, and was named to honor the crew of the Space Shuttle lost in early 2003. Constructed in just four months, Columbia increased NASA's computing capability ten-fold, and revitalized the Agency's high-end computing efforts. Significant cutting-edge science and engineering simulations in the areas of space and Earth sciences, as well as aeronautics and space operations, are already occurring on this largest operational Linux supercomputer, demonstrating its capacity and capability to accelerate NASA's space exploration vision. The presentation will describe how an integrated environment consisting not only of next-generation systems, but also modeling and simulation, high-speed networking, parallel performance optimization, and advanced data analysis and visualization, is being used to reduce design cycle time, accelerate scientific discovery, conduct parametric analysis of multiple scenarios, and enhance safety during the life cycle of NASA missions. The talk will conclude by discussing how NAS partnered with various NASA centers, other government agencies, computer industry, and academia, to create a national resource in large-scale modeling and simulation.

Brooks, Walter↗