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At least 91 records · Page 5

Surrogate Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems: A Comparative Study

Surrogate models play a vital role in overcoming the computational challenge in designing and analyzing nonlinear dynamic systems, especially in the presence of uncertainty. This paper presents a comparative study of different surrogate modeling techniques for nonlinear dynamic systems. Four surrogate modeling methods, namely, Gaussian process (GP) regression, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, a convolutional neural network (CNN) with LSTM (CNN-LSTM), and a CNN with bidirectional LSTM (CNN-BLSTM), are studied and compared. All these model types can predict the future behavior of dynamic systems over long periods based on training data from relatively short periods. The multi-dimensional inputs of surrogate models are organized in a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) scheme to enable recursive prediction over long periods, where current predictions replace inputs from the previous time window. Three numerical examples, including one mathematical example and two nonlinear engineering analysis models, are used to compare the performance of the four surrogate modeling techniques. The results show that the GP-NARX surrogate model tends to have more stable performance than the other three deep learning (DL)-based methods for the three particular examples studied. The tuning effort of GP-NARX is also much lower than its deep learning-based counterparts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effects of machine learning errors on human decision-making: manipulations of model accuracy, error types, and error importance

Abstract This study addressed the cognitive impacts of providing correct and incorrect machine learning (ML) outputs in support of an object detection task. The study consisted of five experiments that manipulated the accuracy and importance of mock ML outputs. In each of the experiments, participants were given the T and L task with T-shaped targets and L-shaped distractors. They were tasked with categorizing each image as target present or target absent. In Experiment 1, they performed this task without the aid of ML outputs. In Experiments 2–5, they were shown images with bounding boxes, representing the output of an ML model. The outputs could be correct (hits and correct rejections), or they could be erroneous (false alarms and misses). Experiment 2 manipulated the overall accuracy of these mock ML outputs. Experiment 3 manipulated the proportion of different types of errors. Experiments 4 and 5 manipulated the importance of specific types of stimuli or model errors, as well as the framing of the task in terms of human or model performance. These experiments showed that model misses were consistently harder for participants to detect than model false alarms. In general, as the model’s performance increased, human performance increased as well, but in many cases the participants were more likely to overlook model errors when the model had high accuracy overall. Warning participants to be on the lookout for specific types of model errors had very little impact on their performance. Overall, our results emphasize the importance of considering human cognition when determining what level of model performance and types of model errors are acceptable for a given task.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Magic-angle twisted symmetric trilayer graphene as a topological heavy-fermion problem

Recently, Song and Bernevig [Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 047601 (2022)] reformulated magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene as a topological heavy fermion problem, and used this reformulation to provide a deeper understanding for the correlated phases at integer fillings. Here, in this work, we generalize this heavy-fermion paradigm to magic-angle twisted symmetric trilayer graphene, and propose a low-energy f–c–d model that reformulates magic-angle twisted symmetric trilayer graphene as heavy localized f modes coupled to itinerant topological semimetalic c modes and itinerant Dirac d modes. Our f–c–d model well reproduces the single-particle band structure of magic-angle twisted symmetric trilayer graphene at low energies for displacement field $\mathcal{E}$ ϵ [0,300]⁢ meV. By performing Hartree-Fock calculations with the f–c–d model for v = 0,–1,–2 electrons per Moiré unit cell, we reproduce all the correlated ground states obtained from the previous numerical Hartree-Fock calculations with the Bistritzer-MacDonald-type model, and we find additional new correlated ground states at high displacement field. Based on the numerical results, we propose a simple rule for the ground states at high displacement fields by using the f–c–d model, and provide analytical derivation for the rule at charge neutrality. We also provide analytical symmetry arguments for the (nearly) degenerate energies of the high-$\mathcal{E}$ ground states at all the integer fillings of interest, and make experimental predictions of which charge-neutral states are stabilized in magnetic fields. Our f–c–d model provides a new perspective for understanding the correlated phenomena in magic-angle twisted symmetric trilayer graphene, suggesting that the heavy fermion paradigm of Song and Bernevig [Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 047601 (2022)] should be the generic underpinning of correlated physics in multilayer moire graphene structures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Magnetic properties of metastable honeycomb KCoAsO 4

We present comprehensive neutron scattering data on polycrystalline samples of a new metastable honeycomb material KCoAsO 4 . Below 𝑇 𝑁 = 14 K, the system orders into a zigzag antiferromagnetic state, with spins ordered into alternating ferromagnetic chains similar to the isostructural sister compound KNiAsO 4 . In the case of KCoAsO 4 , we find the moments are robustly canted out of plane closer to the crystallographic 𝑐 axis. A combination of weak interlayer coupling, lattice strain, and inhomogeneities lead to the coexistence of two magnetic ordering wave vectors 𝑘 1 = (1.5 0 0) and 𝑘 2 = (0.5 0 0.5), where the two structures differ only in their layer stacking. Inelastic data show the presence of a spin orbital mode at 24 meV, supporting a pseudospin $\tilde{𝑆}$ = 1/2 Kramer's doublet ground state of the Co 2+ ions. We model the low energy excitations using both a conventional XXZ Hamiltonian and generalized Kitaev Heisenberg Hamiltonian within a linear spin wave limit. While either model can qualitatively reproduce the observed spectra, the lack of fine features and observation of disorder prevent a clear-cut determination of the low energy Hamiltonian. In the case of an XXZ-type model, a large easy-axis anisotropy is necessary to reproduce the gapped spectra and canting of the magnetic moments. For the generalized Kitaev model, despite the large canting of the moments away from the honeycomb layers, we find a noticeable if nondominant Kitaev term persists. In conclusion, the contrast of the magnetic properties of KCoAsO 4 to other cobalt honeycombs highlights the sensitivity of the low energy magnetic properties of Co 2+ to fine details of its crystalline environment.

Honeycomb lattice↗

EAGLE-I County Customer Dataset Fall 2025

This dataset provides a combination of modeled and collected county-level electric customer counts derived from 2023 EIA-861 utility customer data, 2021 HIFLD electric retail service territory boundaries, 2021 LandScan population estimates, and 2025 EAGLE-I customer outages. The dataset details county FIPS code, number of customers, and customer type (modeled, collected, mixed). Outage data in included for all 50 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia (excluding other U.S. territories).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Improving the representation of shallow cumulus convection with the simplified-higher-order-closure–mass-flux (SHOC+MF v1.0) approach

Abstract. Parameterized boundary layer turbulence and moist convection remain some of the largest sources of uncertainty in general circulation models. High-resolution climate modeling aims to reduce that uncertainty by explicitly attempting to resolve deep moist convective motions. An example of such a model is the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) with a target global resolution of 3.25 km, allowing for a more accurate representation of complex mesoscale deep convective dynamics. Yet, small-scale planetary boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection still need to be parameterized, which in SCREAM is accomplished through the turbulent-kinetic-energy-based (TKE-based) simplified higher-order closure (SHOC) – a simplified version of the assumed-double-Gaussian-PDF (probability density function) higher-order-closure method. In this paper, we implement a stochastic-multiplume mass-flux (MF) parameterization of dry and shallow convection in SCREAM to go beyond the limitations of double-Gaussian-PDF closures and couple it to SHOC (SHOC+MF). The new parameterization implemented in a single-column model type version of SCREAM produces results for two shallow cumulus convection cases (marine and continental shallow convection) that agree well with the reference data from large-eddy simulations, thus improving the general representation of the thermodynamic quantities and their turbulent fluxes as well as cloud macrophysics in the model. Furthermore, SHOC+MF parameterization shows weak sensitivity to the vertical grid resolution and model time step.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗

Dynamics of poly[n]catenane melts

Inspired by advances in the chemical synthesis of interlocking polymer architectures, extensive molecular dynamics simulations have been conducted to study the dynamical properties of poly[n]catenanes-polymers composed entirely of interlocking rings-in the melt state. Both the degree of polymerization (number of links) and the number of beads per ring are systematically varied, and the results are compared to linear and ring polymers. Herein, a simple Rouse-like model is presented, and its analytical solution suggests a decomposition of the dynamics into "ring-like" and "linear-like" regimes at short and long times, respectively. In agreement with this picture, multiple sub-diffusive regimes are observed in the monomer mean-squared-displacements even though interchain entanglement is not prevalent in the system. However, the Rouse-type model does not account for the topological effects of the mechanical bonds, which significantly alter the dynamics at intermediate length scales both within the rings and at the chain segment scales. The stress relaxation in the system is extremely rapid and may be conveniently separated into ring-like and linear-like contributions, again in agreement with the Rouse picture. However, the viscosity has a non-monotonic dependence on the ring size for long chains, which disagrees strongly with theoretical predictions. This unexpected observation cannot be explained in terms of chain disentanglement and is inconsistent with other measures of polymer relaxation. Possible mechanisms for this behavior are proposed and implications for materials design are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mshock HED Council Request FY24 [Slides]

ICF and HEDP experiments experience complicated loadings including successive shocks, but modeling and analytic work has mostly engaged the simpler shock or shock-reshock case. This is because the co propagating case is difficult to achieve with conventional (non-HED) drivers. Successive shocks will be challenging to model in BHR or modal model interpretations: 1) Ex: Consider the case where long wavelength modes re-invert coherently, but short wavelength nonlinear modes are spun up turbulently. 2) Necessitates more advanced diagnostics and analysis than simple “mixing layers.” High resolution spectral information (concomitant with Ω-EP campaigns) and higher-order moment analyses will be necessary to stress and validate the reduced BHR-type models.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part I: Uniqueness and Sensitivity of the ENSO Mode

Abstract The basic dynamics of the spatiotemporal diversity for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the subject of extensive research and, while several hypotheses have been proposed, remains elusive. One promising line of studies suggests that the observed eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) ENSO may originate from two coexisting leading ENSO modes. We show that the coexistence of unstable EP-like and CP-like modes in these studies arises from contaminated linear stability analysis due to unnoticed numerical scheme caveats. In this two-part study, we further investigate the dynamics of ENSO diversity within a Cane–Zebiak-type model. We first revisit the linear stability issue to demonstrate that only one ENSO-like linear leading mode exists under realistic climate conditions. This single leading ENSO mode can be linked to either a coupled recharge-oscillator (RO) mode favored by the thermocline feedback or a wave-oscillator (WO) mode favored by the zonal advective feedback at the weak air–sea coupling end. Strong competition between the RO and WO modes for their prominence in shaping this ENSO mode into a generalized RO mode makes it sensitive to moderate changes in these two key feedbacks. Modulations of climate conditions yield corresponding modulations in spatial pattern, amplitude, and period associated with this ENSO mode. However, the ENSO behavior undergoing this linear climate condition modulations alone does not seem consistent with the observed ENSO diversity, suggesting the inadequacy of linear dynamics in explaining ENSO diversity. A nonlinear mechanism for ENSO diversity will be proposed and discussed in Part II.

Geng, Licheng↗

On small black holes in string theory

Abstract We discuss the worldsheet sigma-model whose target space is thed+1 dimensional Euclidean Schwarzschild black hole. We argue that in the limit where the Hawking temperature of the black hole,T, approaches the Hagedorn temperature,T H , it can be described in terms of a generalized version of the Horowitz-Polchinski effective theory. Ford≥ 6, where the Horowitz-Polchinski EFT [1, 2] does not have suitable solutions, the modified effective Lagrangian allows one to study the black hole CFT in an expansion in powers ofd− 6 andT H −T. AtT=T H , the sigma model is non-trivial for alld> 6. It exhibits an enhanced SU(2) symmetry, and is described by a non-abelian Thirring model with a radially dependent coupling. The resulting picture connects naturally to the results of [3–5], that relate Schwarzschild black holes in flat spacetime at largedto the two dimensional black hole. We also discuss an analogous open string system, in which the black hole is replaced by a system of two separated D-branes connected by a throat. In this system, the asymptotic separation of the branes plays the role of the inverse temperature. At the critical separation, the system is described by a Kondo-type model, which again exhibits an enhanced SU(2) symmetry. At larged, the brane system gives rise to the hairpin brane [6].

Physics↗

A new database website for nuclear level densities

We introduce a new open-access, web-based database (http://nld.ascsn.net), Current Archive of Nuclear Density of Levels (CANDL), that hosts experimental nuclear level density (NLD) datasets from a variety of techniques and energy ranges. Built using the Dash framework in Python, the database is designed to be interactive and user-friendly, allowing researchers to search, visualize, fit, and export NLD data with minimal effort. This resource includes data extracted from evaporation spectra, Oslo method variants, and other experimental techniques that cover excitation energies beyond the neutron resonance region. The database supports on-the-fly fitting with two widely-used phenomenological models—the Constant Temperature (CT) model and the Back-Shifted Fermi Gas (BSFG) model—selected for their simplicity and computational efficiency. Future versions aim to include additional datasets and model types, as well as easy-to-use interfaces to data science techniques. Here, this platform offers a vital tool for the nuclear physics, astrophysics, medicine, and reactor design communities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Towards a UV model of kinetic mixing and portal matter

The nature of dark matter (DM) and how it might interact with the particles of the Standard Model (SM) is an ever-growing mystery. It is possible that the existence of new “dark sector” forces, yet undiscovered, are the key to solving this fundamental problem, and one might hope that in the future such forces might even be “unified” with the ones we already know in some UV-complete framework. In this paper, following a bottom-up approach, we attempt to take the first steps in the construction of such a framework. The much-discussed possibility of the kinetic mixing (KM) of the “dark photon” with the hypercharge gauge boson of the SM via loops of portal matter (PM) fields, charged in both sectors, offers an attractive starting point for these efforts. Given the anticipated finite strength of the KM in a UV-complete theory, the absence of anomalies, and the lifetime constraints on the PM fields arising from cosmic microwave background and nucleosynthesis constraints, PM must behave as vector-like copies of the known SM fermion fields, such as those which appear naturally in, e.g., E 6 -type models. Within such a setup, the SM and their corresponding partner PM fields would be related by a new S U ( 2 ) I gauge symmetry. With this observation as a springboard, we construct a generalization of these ideas where S U ( 2 ) I is augmented by an additional U ( 1 ) I Y factor so that the light dark photon is the result of a symmetry breaking analogous to the SM, i.e., S U ( 2 ) I × U ( 1 ) I Y → U ( 1 ) D , but with U ( 1 ) D now also broken at the ≲ GeV scale. While SM fields are U ( 1 ) D singlets, as in the conventional dark photon approach, they transform nontrivially under the full S U ( 2 ) I × U ( 1 ) I Y gauge group. This approach leads to numerous interesting signatures, both at low energies and at colliders, and can be viewed as an initial step in the construction of a more UV-complete framework.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Disease modeling for Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB using patient derived induced pluripotent stem cells

Highlights: • Establishment of a patient-specific neuronal model for Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB using iPSCs. • Lysosomes enlarged and secondary lipid accumulated in Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB iPSC-derived neuronal cells. • Recombinant NAGLU, δ-tocopherol, and HPBCD reduced the disease phenotypes in MPS IIIB iPSC-derived neuronal cells. Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIB (MPS IIIB) is a lysosomal disease caused by mutations in the NAGLU gene encoding α-N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAGLU) which degrades heparan sulfate in lysosomes. Deficiency in NAGLU results in lysosomal accumulation of glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) and neurological symptoms. Currently, there is no effective treatment or cure for this disease. In this study, induced pluripotent stem cell lines were established from two MPS IIIB patient fibroblast lines and differentiated into neural stem cells and neurons. MPS IIIB neural stem cells exhibited NAGLU deficiency accompanied with GAG accumulation, as well as lysosomal enlargement and secondary lipid accumulation. Treatments with recombinant NAGLU, δ-tocopherol, and 2-hydroxypropyl-b-cyclodextrin significantly reduced the disease phenotypes in these cells. These results indicate the MPS IIIB neural stem cells and neurons have the disease relevant phenotype and can be used as a cell-based disease model system for evaluation of drug efficacy and compound screening for drug development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Metal dissolution from first principles: Potential-dependent kinetics and charge transfer

Metal dissolution and its inverse process are integral to both corrosion and electrodeposition; however, many mechanistic details regarding the dissolution process are challenging to decipher. These include how ion dissolution kinetics and charge transfer are influenced by the competition between metal and solvent interactions under an electrode potential. Here, in this work, we introduce a computational framework based on density functional theory with grand-canonical treatment of electrons to directly predict the potential energy landscape for metal dissolution at a constant potential. Using aluminum as an example, we demonstrate that dissolution kinetics is governed by competing kinetics between two physical processes associated with metal–metal bond breaking and ion-migration within the electrical double layer, respectively. We identify a kinetic transition between regimes dominated by each of these processes and show that this transition depends on the operating electrode potential, among other key factors. It is further found that kinetics and thermodynamics of these processes can be described with a simple, one-parameter Marcus-theory-type model. Beyond offering new understanding of charge transfer during dissolution, our simulation protocol provides a recipe for directly predicting other important quantities in electrochemical reactions from first principles that are difficult to measure, such as the symmetry factor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An interlaboratory comparison of mid-infrared spectra acquisition: Instruments and procedures matter

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy has been extensively employed to deliver timely and cost-effective predictions of a number of soil properties. However, although several soil spectral laboratories have been established worldwide, the distinct characteristics of instruments and operations still hamper further integration and interoperability across mid-infrared (MIR) soil spectral libraries. In this study, we conducted a large-scale ring trial experiment to understand the lab-to-lab variability of multiple MIR instruments. By developing a systematic evaluation of different mathematical treatments with modeling algorithms, including regular preprocessing and spectral standardization, we quantified and evaluated instruments' dissimilarity and how this impacts internal and shared model performance. We found that all instruments delivered good predictions when calibrated internally using the same instruments' characteristics and standard operating procedures by solely relying on regular spectral preprocessing that accounts for light scattering and multiplicative/additive effects, e.g., using standard normal variate (SNV). When performing model transfer from a large public library (the USDA NSSCKSSL MIR library) to secondary instruments, good performance was also achieved by regular preprocessing (e. g., SNV) if both instruments shared the same manufacturer. However, significant differences between the KSSL MIR library and contrasting ring trial instruments responses were evident and confirmed by a semi-unsupervised spectral clustering. For heavily contrasting setups, spectral standardization was necessary before transferring prediction models. Non-linear model types like Cubist and memory-based learning delivered more precise estimates because they seemed to be less sensitive to spectral variations than global partial least square regression. In summary, the results from this study can assist new laboratories in building spectroscopy capacity utilizing existing MIR spectral libraries and support the recent global efforts to make soil spectroscopy universally accessible with centralized or shared operating procedures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Proton-neutron pairing, quartet condensation and α − transfer in N=Z nuclei

In the past years various studies have shown that the proton-neutron pairing correlations in N=Z nuclei can be accurately described by a condensate of α-like quartets. It was also shown that the α-like quartets, defined as 4- body collective structures built with two neutrons and two protons, are also able to describe the correlations induced by general two-body interactions of shell-model type. In this paper we summarise the studies mentioned above and then we discuss how the fingerprints of the quartet condensation could be investigated by α-transfer reactions.

Sandulescu, Nicolae↗