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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing and Enabling Trustworthy Predictions for High-Consequence Decisions

Predictions from physics-based computational models provide critical information to inform high consequence decisions, e.g., engineering design decisions. The ability to assess the reliability of such predictions is therefore critical. However, to date, reliability assessment rely heavily on expert judgment and qualitative arguments. This report details the efforts of LDRD 233072 to develop quantitative methods to assess reliability of model predictions, especially in the context of simplifying assumptions that can impact their reliability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

CALPHAD-based ICME design of single-step aging to enhance mechanical strength of WAAM Haynes 282

To match the strength of wire-arc additive manufactured Haynes 282 to its wrought counterpart via a single-step aging heat treatment, the CALPHAD (Calculation of Phase Diagrams) method is integrated with physics-based process-structure-property models and experimental validation. The integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) framework simulates the effects of aging on γ′ and M 23 C 6 precipitation and the resulting yield strength. To improve simulation reliability, the interfacial energies between γ/γ′ and γ/M 23 C 6 carbides were estimated by comparison with precipitation kinetic modeling and measured precipitate sizes. γ′ and M23C6 were found to precipitate simultaneously between 640 and 860 °C, producing microstructures similar to those produced by two-step aging. The optimal γ′ size for peak yield stress was calculated to be 20–23 nm. WAAM Haynes 282 aged at 780 °C for 50 h exceeded the mechanical performance of its wrought counterpart subjected to two-step aging, though desired properties can also be achieved at 800 °C for 16 h or less. The error in yield strength is less than 20 MPa, demonstrating good agreement between the modeling framework and experiments. Creep studies showed that WAAM Haynes 282 exceeded the calculated rupture time, reaching 481 h. This proposed methodology can accelerate the design of aging heat treatments for any γ′-strengthened nickel-base alloy, minimizing the resources required for trial-and-error experiments.

CALPHAD↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling a Sodium Heat Pipe Experiment at SPHERE Using Sockeye

The Single Primary Heat Extraction and Rejection Emulator (SPHERE) facility at Idaho Na- tional Laboratory was recently utilized to generate data for the startup and steady operation of a high-performance, sodium heat pipe over the course of 1000 hours, as a test of detrimental, long-term effects of heat pipe operation. The setup consists of a single, sodium heat pipe enclosed in a stainless-steel vacuum chamber, heated radiatively via a cylindrical ceramic fiber heater configuration and cooled via a water-cooled calorimeter. Measurements include temperatures at several axial locations along the outer surface of the heat pipe, the power provided to the heaters, and the heat removal rate of the calorimeter. In this work, this data is utilized to validate heat pipe models in the heat pipe application Sockeye, which is based upon the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. Sockeye provides various heat pipe models at an engineering scale appropriate for the multiphysics simulation of microreactors, which may feature several hundred heat pipes. This work details models of this experiment in SPHERE using various heat pipe models with Sockeye, including heat conduction-based models and compressible flow models of the heat pipe interior. These models are compared to the experimental data to assess the accuracy of several aspects of heat pipe modeling, including frozen startup, the effect of non-condensable gases, and the coupling of the heat pipe to its environment.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling a Sodium Heat Pipe Experiment at SPHERE Using Sockeye

The Single Primary Heat Extraction and Rejection Emulator (SPHERE) facility at Idaho National Laboratory was recently utilized to generate data for the startup and steady operation of a high-performance, sodium heat pipe over the course of 1,000 hours to test the detrimental, long-term effects of heat pipe operation. The setup consisted of a single, sodium heat pipe enclosed in a stainless-steel vacuum chamber, heated radiatively via a cylindrical ceramic-fiber heater configuration and cooled via a water-cooled calorimeter. Measurements included temperatures at several axial locations along the outer surface of the heat pipe, the power provided to the heaters, and the heat removal rate of the calorimeter. In this work, we use this data to validate heat pipe models in Sockeye, a heat pipe application based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. Sockeye provides various heat pipe models at an engineering scale appropriate for the multiphysics simulation of microreactors, which may feature several hundred heat pipes. This work details models of this experiment at SPHERE using various heat pipe models with Sockeye, including heat-conduction-based and compressible flow models of the heat pipe interior.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-free stabilization via Extremum Seeking using a cost neural estimator

In this paper, a fully model-free architecture for vertical stabilization of thermonuclear plasmas in tokamak experimental reactors is presented. For the first time, an Extremum Seeking control algorithm is combined with neural networks to estimate the Lyapunov function to be minimized, resulting in a fully data-driven control architecture. The performance of different neural networks are compared. Specifically, Multilayer Perceptrons and Extreme Learning Machines are considered. The proposed architecture is tested in simulation to show that it can counteract relevant plasma disturbances, resulting in a significant improvement in terms of the achievable operative space compared to the Extremum Seeking algorithm, which still relies on model-based cost estimator.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon dioxide pipeline network transportation cost model: evaluating economic and geographic factors for efficient carbon capture, storage, and utilization

This study presents a comprehensive pipeline network modeling framework to estimate the CO 2 delivery cost for CO 2 utilization and geologic CO 2 storage across the United States. We developed a Python-based CO 2 pipeline transportation cost model leveraging Argonne National Laboratory’s pipeline engineering expertise and detailed natural gas transmission pipeline cost data across U.S. regions. Using existing road corridors as practical routing guides, the model designs pipeline networks that aggregate CO 2 from one or multiple sources and deliver it to selected destinations. It then minimizes the total transportation cost by optimizing pipeline diameters and incorporating booster pumps. A key contribution is the incorporation of up-to-date, region-specific cost factors with itemized components for materials, labor, miscellaneous construction expenses, and right-of-way acquisition. Results emphasize that regional variation and economies of scale associated with CO 2 pipeline costs are significant and should be explicitly accounted for in screening and planning studies. By combining realistic routing constraints with regionalized cost inputs, the model provides transparent design methodology and location-specific insights into source–destination delivery costs, including the effects of routing complexity along existing road networks. We demonstrate the model with two illustrative case studies – one for CO 2 storage and one for CO 2 utilization – in which the model designs pipeline networks spanning hundreds of miles across the states, collecting CO 2 from multiple sources and delivering it to designated endpoints while minimizing levelized cost of delivery via diameter and compression optimization. The model offers a practical, scalable approach for alternative design option screening and early-stage CO 2 transportation planning.

CCS↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feedforward-feedback ammonia control at a water resource recovery facility based on a digital twin with hybrid model

Ammonia-based aeration control (ABAC) at full-scale Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) can be challenged by diurnal loading and transport delays. This work addressed these challenges using a hybrid feedforward–feedback controller built on Activated Sludge Model 1 (ASM1), marking the first full-scale deployment to pair a mechanistic feedforward core with data-driven corrections. The objectives were to improve ammonia setpoint tracking, assess performance of the mechanistic model when enhanced with data-driven corrections, and document full-scale operation. The hybrid model incorporates two data-driven components: (1) a Mechanistic Error Forecasting Engine (MEFE), consisting of a multivariate linear regressor and a long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble. Defying expectations, low-parameter models outperformed more complex alternatives, reducing the mechanistic error by 71%. (2) A Residual Oscillation Forecasting Engine (ROFE), based on Fast Fourier Transform, reduced the remaining error by another 35%. Two proportional–integral (PI) feedback loops further (i) trim the feedforward output and (ii) eliminate residual controller error in the final aerobic zone. In full-scale operation, the controller reduced mean-squared error (MSE) by 94% over the baseline and produced more stable dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints. Overall, it was proven that layering multi-timescale data-driven models on a mechanistic core can yield reliable ABAC performance at WRRFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Aided Modeling of Granular Materials: A Review

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a buzzy word since Google’s AlphaGo beat a world champion in 2017. In the past five years, machine learning as a subset of the broader category of AI has obtained considerable attention in the research community of granular materials. This work offers a detailed review of the recent advances in machine learning-aided studies of granular materials from the particle-particle interaction at the grain level to the macroscopic simulations of granular flow. This work will start with the application of machine learning in the microscopic particle-particle interaction and associated contact models. Then, different neural networks for learning the constitutive behaviour of granular materials will be reviewed and compared. Finally, the macroscopic simulations of practical engineering or boundary value problems based on the combination of neural networks and numerical methods are discussed. We hope readers will have a clear idea of the development of machine learning-aided modelling of granular materials via this comprehensive review work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-Field Modeling of Thermally-Grown Oxide and the Induced Damage Evolution in Environmental Barrier Coatings

The advent of next-generation hydrogen-based engines necessitates materials capable of withstanding temperatures beyond the reach of current superalloys. SiC-based ceramic matrix composites, augmented with environmental barrier coatings (EBCs), present a promising materials solution. Given the active search for effective and durable EBCs, there is a pressing need for modeling tools to understand and predict damage evolution in these materials to help accelerate their development. This study introduces a phase-field model (PFM) designed to simulate the critical role of thermally grown oxides (TGO) in the degradation and failure of EBCs. The model accounts for the severe volume expansion due to oxidation, alongside phase transformations and microstructural evolution during thermal cycling, offering a comprehensive view of the damage processes. Simulation results are validated against experimental findings reported in the literature, establishing the model's potential as a significant tool for understanding and improving the resilience of EBCs in cyclic oxidative environments.

Cheng, Tianle↗
DOE OSTI2026

FLOW BATTERY COST AND COMMERCIALIZATION TOOL (FlowBaCC) v.1.0

The Flow Battery Cost and Commercialization Tool (FlowBaCC) is a python-based framework used to project the costs and commercialization timelines for redox flow batteries. FlowBaCC combines learning curves for component costs and performance with adoption curves for market diffusion to project future system costs. The tool uses the bottom-up, spreadsheet-based Battery Performance and Cost Model for Flow Batteries (BatPaC-Flow) as the engine to translate learning curve inputs into full system costs. FlowBaCC provides capital costs and levelized costs of energy storage. The tool enables scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification (via grid and Monte Carlo methods).

Fu, Xiaoxu [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Arg↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance evaluation of automated data-driven feature extraction and selection methods for practical and scalable building energy consumption prediction models

Here, this study quantifies the impact of automated feature engineering methods (feature extraction and selection) on the quality and accuracy of machine learning models that predict building energy consumption. The case study compares model performance for three main scenarios: baseline (no feature extraction and selection), feature extraction only, and feature extraction combined with feature selection (filter and/or wrapper methods) for fully trained machine learning models for 200 metered/sub-metered energy measurements across 118 real buildings. For consistency, the same machine learning model architecture (a black box deep learning neural network with probabilistic forecast output) was used for all scenarios. Based on results, all feature engineering methods provided noticeable prediction accuracy improvements (e.g., 29%-68% median prediction improvement) compared to baseline scenarios. However, in this application, feature selection methods provide little practical value due to their limited performance gains and high computational cost. Smarter algorithm development supported by better computational environments will be needed before feature selection methods can reliably and efficiently improve predictive model performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

MCP-eGridGPT (MCP-Enabled Chatbot with Electrical Power System Analysis and Interactive Visualization Tool) [SWR-25-126]

This software is an advanced chatbot system that integrates the Model Context Protocol (MCP) to provide intelligent electrical power system analysis and automated visualization generation. The system enables users to interact with complex electrical engineering tools through natural language, automatically analyzes power system data for voltage violations and grid health assessment, and generates professional interactive HTML dashboards and reports. Key features include dynamic tool discovery from MCP servers, multi-LLM provider support, intelligent data interpretation using large language models, automated chart generation, and a web-based interface for real-time analysis. The software bridges sophisticated electrical engineering analysis with user-friendly interfaces, making power system diagnostics accessible through conversational AI.

Choi, Seong [National Laboratory of the Rockies (N↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emergent Inductance from Chiral Orbital Currents in a Bulk Ferrimagnet

Here, we report the discovery of a new form of inductance in the bulk ferrimagnet Mn 3 ⁢Si 2 ⁢Te 6 , which features strong spin-orbit coupling, large magnetic anisotropy, and pronounced magnetoelastic interactions. Below its Curie temperature (𝑇 𝐶 ≈ 78 K), Mn 3 ⁢Si 2 ⁢Te 6 hosts chiral orbital currents (COC) that circulate within the crystal lattice and give rise to collective electronic behavior [Control of chiral orbital currents in a colossal magnetoresistance material, Nature (London) 611, 467 (2022).]. By applying a magnetic field along the hard 𝑐 axis and driving the system with low-frequency currents, we uncover a giant inductive response up to millhenry scale, originating from first-order reconfigurations of COC domains. These domains act as coherent mesoscopic inductive elements that resist reversal upon current reduction, producing a large electromotive force and sharply increasing voltage. This emergent inductance defies classical models, occurs without superconductivity or engineered nanostructures, and opens a new frontier in orbital-based quantum functionality and device concepts.

complex materials↗