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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Using spatial statistical methods to determine an effective minimum detectable activity - 15681

Instrument minimum detectable activity (MDA) is generally established by collecting multiple measurements over time of a single representative background location to estimate a probability distribution of instrument readings. A reading that is considered to be greater than would be expected from the background probability distribution (i.e., a low-probability event) is deemed to be sufficiently unlikely that it must be attributable to added radioactivity and is therefore used as the instrument MDA. An effective MDA can be determined from spatially distributed data that are much lower than the instrument MDA. This has been accomplished using a large number of spatially distributed data points (from a radiation survey) where patterns of elevated survey readings can be distinguished from background at levels. Given the variation of the instrument response and the relatively low regulatory action levels, it is vital to establish MDA thresholds that are well below corrective action levels. Processing of radiological survey data with the use of histogram binning and geo-statistics in enabling pattern recognition can be used to establish effective field MDAs that are much lower than instrument MDAs. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Methods for Effective Spatial and Temporal Scaling in Support of Probabilistic Performance Assessments - 17340

Performance assessments (PAs) for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste have traditionally been performed in a deterministic manner, with inputs specified as single values as if they carry no uncertainty. Modern PAs, however, explicitly incorporate uncertainty through use of probability distributions for inputs instead of single values. While this is clearly an improvement, challenges remain in specifying appropriate distributions, many of which relate to capturing the appropriate spatial and/or temporal scale given the PA model, and matching the scale(s) of data and information to that specified by the model. More careful attention to scaling will lead to more defensible characterizations of physical variability and uncertainty in model inputs, thus leading to more defensible information regarding outcomes of interest to be used in decision making, and hence more defensible decisions. This work introduces general strategies and considerations for explicitly incorporating considerations of scale into distribution development. The strategies are explained as a series of steps and then presented with an example that starts to illustrate the new statistical concepts. This work frames the problem in terms of hierarchical statistical modeling, providing important connections to current statistical approaches to formally and rigorously account for temporal and spatial scaling. The larger goal is to build a more formal and unified approach to distribution development to help teams of modelers, subject matter experts, and statisticians work together to develop distributions and justify the choices made in the process, ultimately leading to more informed decision-making. Without this rigor, statistical distributions are not specified correctly and can have unexpected consequences for modeling and sensitivity analysis. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decoupling of heat generated from ejected and non-ejected contents of 18650-format lithium-ion cells using statistical methods

Effective thermal management systems, designed to handle the impacts of thermal runaway (TR) and to prevent cell-to-cell propagation, are key to safe operation of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery assemblies. Critical factors for optimizing these systems include the total energy released during a single cell TR event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing versus through the ejecta material. A unique fractional thermal runaway calorimeter (FTRC), designed to characterize said critical factors, was utilized to examine the TR behavior of 18650-format Li-ion cells representing a variety of manufacturers, chemistries, capacities, and safety features. Primarily, the impacts of bottom vent (BV) safety features, varied cell casing thickness, and Dreamweaver cellulose based separators were assessed for select cell types. A subset of cells also had an imbedded internal short circuiting (ISC) device to allow examination of TR behavior initiated at lower temperatures (i.e. closer to field failure conditions). The impact of bottom rupture on TR behavior was also examined for experiments that resulted in this non-standard failure mechanism. Statistical analysis of the results for each cell configuration reveals that a lognormal distribution effectively characterizes the variation of total TR energy release. Typically 20%-30% of the total energy yield is released through the cell casing with the remainder through the ejecta material. Higher energy cells tend to exhibit more violent ejections and less predictable TR events. Inclusion of a BV feature reduces the overall severity of the TR event and can increase the predictability. Results also suggest that the magnitude of the TR event may not be directly proportional to the stored electrical energy, but rather has additional dependence on other design and failure mode factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Novel Statistical Method for Measuring the Temperature–Density Relation in the IGM Using the b – N Hi Distribution of Absorbers in the Ly α Forest

We propose a new method for determining the thermal state of the intergalactic medium based on Voigt profile decomposition of the Lyα forest. The distribution of Doppler parameter and column density (b–N H i distribution) is sensitive to the temperature–density relation T = T 0 (ρ/ρ 0 ) γ-1 , and previous work has inferred T 0 and γ by fitting its low-b cutoff. This approach discards the majority of available data and is susceptible to systematics related to cutoff determination. We introduce an approach that exploits all information encoded in the b – N H i distribution by modeling its entire shape. We apply kernel density estimation to discrete absorption lines to generate model probability density functions, and then we use principal component decomposition to create an emulator that can be evaluated anywhere in thermal parameter space. We introduce a Bayesian likelihood based on these models enabling parameter inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The method's robustness is tested by applying it to a large grid of thermal history simulations. By conducting 160 mock measurements, we establish that our approach delivers unbiased estimates and valid uncertainties for a 2D ( T 0 , γ) measurement. Furthermore, we conduct a pilot study applying this methodology to real observational data at z = 2. Using 200 absorbers, equivalent in path length to a single Lya forest spectrum, we measure $\mathrm{log}{T}_{0}={4.092}_{-0.055}^{+0.050}$ and $\gamma ={1.49}_{-0.074}^{+0.073}$ in excellent agreement with cutoff fitting determinations using the same data. Our method is far more sensitive than cutoff fitting, enabling measurements of log T 0 and γ with precision on $\mathrm{log}{T}_{0}$ (γ) nearly two (three) times higher for current data set sizes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1980

Description of statistical methods and a routine for determining the parameters of a model in processing experimental results

A computer routine is suggested for selecting the optimum parameters of a theoretical model and determining the errors in them due to errors in physical measurements and for evaluating the conformity of theory with the experiment. The paper describes the specification sequence for the input data and the format of the calculation results. Sample printouts are appended.

Usikov, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A statistical method to sense sea surface temperature from the Nimbus-7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer

Among the five channels in the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), the brightness temperature measured at 6.6 GHz vertical polarization is least affected by the atmospheric water vapor and liquid water in clouds or rain. Furthermore, as the undisturbed sea surface emissivity at 6.6 GHz is nearly constant over the temperature range 275 to 300 K, this channel has the best sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST). The 6.6 GHz channel on SMMR is specifically chosen for these reasons to measure SST.

Prabhakara, C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Evaluation of alpha-SiC sintering using statistical methods

The effect of time and temperature on the density and strength of alpha-SiC was studied and mathematically modeled using a central composite experimental design. A sintering temperature of 2150 C for 1.7 h maximized the flexural strength and densification values. However, temperatures above 2200 C promoted abnormal grain growth, with resulting appreciable decreases in strength. Flexural strength increased exponentially with increasing density for specimens with densities less than or equal to 92 percent of theoretical.

Hurst, J. B.↗