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At least 91 records · Page 5

Methodology to design a municipal solid waste pre-collection system. A case study

Highlights: • MSW recovery starts at homes; therefore it is important to facilitate it to people. • Additionally, to optimize MSW collection a previous pre-collection must be planned. • A methodology to organize pre-collection considering several factors is presented. • The methodology has been verified applying it to a Spanish middle town. - Abstract: The municipal solid waste (MSW) management is an important task that local governments as well as private companies must take into account to protect human health, the environment and to preserve natural resources. To design an adequate MSW management plan the first step consists in defining the waste generation and composition patterns of the town. As these patterns depend on several socio-economic factors it is advisable to organize them previously. Moreover, the waste generation and composition patterns may vary around the town and over the time. Generally, the data are not homogeneous around the city as the number of inhabitants is not constant nor it is the economic activity. Therefore, if all the information is showed in thematic maps, the final waste management decisions can be made more efficiently. The main aim of this paper is to present a structured methodology that allows local authorities or private companies who deal with MSW to design its own MSW management plan depending on the available data. According to these data, this paper proposes two ways of action: a direct way when detailed data are available and an indirect way when there is a lack of data and it is necessary to take into account bibliographic data. In any case, the amount of information needed is considerable. This paper combines the planning methodology with the Geographic Information Systems to present the final results in thematic maps that make easier to interpret them. The proposed methodology is a previous useful tool to organize the MSW collection routes including the selective collection. To verify the methodology it has been successfully applied to a Spanish town.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Risk-Informed Performance-Based Methodology to Manage Fire Protection Systems in Nuclear Facilities

Fire protection systems (FPSs) and features are installed in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facilities to protect property (maximum possible fire loss thresholds), life, and nuclear safety (i.e., structures, systems, and components). These FPSs and features are designed and maintained in accordance with the prescriptive guidance provided in applicable building codes and National Fire Protection Association codes and standards. Management, operations, and maintenance activities of FPSs involve significant effort. A DOE facility’s documented safety analysis or other safety basis document could also rely on FPSs to provide either a safety significant or safety class function to mitigate fire hazards and minimize radiological consequences. In some cases, the designation of safety significant or safety class may be determined to provide a layer of defense-in-depth to minimize nuclear safety risks independent of the fire risk. DOE standards allow the use of performance-based design alternatives developed by the fire industry but do not consider the defense-in-depth layers of protection provided in DOE facilities to prevent or mitigate the risks associated with unintended release of radioactive materials into the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a decision-making methodology tailored for DOE non-reactor nuclear facilities to manage FPSs and features by integrating nuclear safety risk insights into a performance-based analysis. This risk-informed, performance-based (RIPB) methodology can be used to provide the technical basis for classifying an FPS as safety class and safety significant, tailoring administrative controls (e.g., technical safety requirements), and ranking the importance of FPSs to prioritize maintenance, upgrades, and replacement activities. The RIPB methodology is a graded approach to inform DOE facility owners and Fire Protection Program managers of the most risk-significant FPSs and equipment, and those systems would be cost-beneficial to relax rigor if there is a need to re-design the FPS coverage or deviate from DOE and National Fire Protection Association standards for those systems that would be less significant. This paper describes the framework used to develop the RIPB methodology and the outcome of implementing this methodology in a use-case nuclear facility. This paper also discusses the impact to DOE policies and standards and the safety margins and defense-in-depth measures credited in nuclear safety assessments in a facility’s documented safety analysis and the benefits of implementing an RIPB methodology in lieu of a prescriptive method to comply with fire protection requirements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

IMPAC: An Integrated Methodology for Propulsion and Airframe Control

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is actively involved in the development of enabling technologies that will lead towards aircraft with new/enhanced maneuver capabilities such as Short Take-Off Vertical Landing (STOVL) and high angle of attack performance. Because of the high degree of dynamic coupling between the airframe and propulsion systems of these types of aircraft, one key technology is the integration of the flight and propulsion control. The NASA Lewis Research Center approach to developing Integrated Flight Propulsion Control (IFPC) technologies is an in-house research program referred to as IMPAC (Integrated Methodology for Propulsion and Airframe Control). The goals of IMPAC are to develop a viable alternative to the existing integrated control design methodologies that will allow for improved system performance and simplicity of control law synthesis and implementation, and to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to a supersonic STOVL fighter aircraft. Based on some preliminary control design studies that included evaluation of the existing methodologies, the IFPC design methodology that is emerging at the Lewis Research Center consists of considering the airframe and propulsion system as one integrated system for an initial centralized controller design and then partitioning the centralized controller into separate airframe and propulsion system subcontrollers to ease implementation and to set meaningful design requirements for detailed subsystem control design and evaluation. An overview of IMPAC is provided and detailed discussion of the various important design and evaluation steps in the methodology are included.

Garg, Sanjay↗

A framework for assessing the adequacy and effectiveness of software development methodologies

Tools, techniques, environments, and methodologies dominate the software engineering literature, but relatively little research in the evaluation of methodologies is evident. This work reports an initial attempt to develop a procedural approach to evaluating software development methodologies. Prominent in this approach are: (1) an explication of the role of a methodology in the software development process; (2) the development of a procedure based on linkages among objectives, principles, and attributes; and (3) the establishment of a basis for reduction of the subjective nature of the evaluation through the introduction of properties. An application of the evaluation procedure to two Navy methodologies has provided consistent results that demonstrate the utility and versatility of the evaluation procedure. Current research efforts focus on the continued refinement of the evaluation procedure through the identification and integration of product quality indicators reflective of attribute presence, and the validation of metrics supporting the measure of those indicators. The consequent refinement of the evaluation procedure offers promise of a flexible approach that admits to change as the field of knowledge matures. In conclusion, the procedural approach presented in this paper represents a promising path toward the end goal of objectively evaluating software engineering methodologies.

Arthur, James D.↗

Virtual-pulse time integral methodology: A new explicit approach for computational dynamics - Theoretical developments for general nonlinear structural dynamics

The present paper describes a new explicit virtual-pulse time integral methodology for nonlinear structural dynamics problems. The purpose of the paper is to provide the theoretical basis of the methodology and to demonstrate applicability of the proposed formulations to nonlinear dynamic structures. Different from the existing numerical methods such as direct time integrations or mode superposition techniques, the proposed methodology offers new perspectives and methodology of development, and possesses several unique and attractive computational characteristics. The methodology is tested and compared with the implicit Newmark method (trapezoidal rule) through a nonlinear softening and hardening spring dynamic models. The numerical results indicate that the proposed explicit virtual-pulse time integral methodology is an excellent alternative for solving general nonlinear dynamic problems.

Chen, Xiaoqin↗

Reference Management Methodologies for Large Structural Models at Kennedy Space Center

There have been many challenges associated with modeling some of NASA KSC's largest structures. Given the size of the welded structures here at KSC, it was critically important to properly organize model struc.ture and carefully manage references. Additionally, because of the amount of hardware to be installed on these structures, it was very important to have a means to coordinate between different design teams and organizations, check for interferences, produce consistent drawings, and allow for simple release processes. Facing these challenges, the modeling team developed a unique reference management methodology and model fidelity methodology. This presentation will describe the techniques and methodologies that were developed for these projects. The attendees will learn about KSC's reference management and model fidelity methodologies for large structures. The attendees will understand the goals of these methodologies. The attendees will appreciate the advantages of developing a reference management methodology.

Jones, Corey↗

Reliability Centered Maintenance - Methodologies

Journal article about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodologies used by United Space Alliance, LLC (USA) in support of the Space Shuttle Program at Kennedy Space Center. The USA Reliability Centered Maintenance program differs from traditional RCM programs because various methodologies are utilized to take advantage of their respective strengths for each application. Based on operational experience, USA has customized the traditional RCM methodology into a streamlined lean logic path and has implemented the use of statistical tools to drive the process. USA RCM has integrated many of the L6S tools into both RCM methodologies. The tools utilized in the Measure, Analyze, and Improve phases of a Lean Six Sigma project lend themselves to application in the RCM process. All USA RCM methodologies meet the requirements defined in SAE JA 1011, Evaluation Criteria for Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) Processes. The proposed article explores these methodologies.

Kammerer, Catherine C.↗

Implementation of J-A Methodology Elastic-Plastic Crack Instability Analysis Capability into the WARP-3D Code

Characterization of the near crack-tip stress/strain fields is the foundation of fracture mechanics. The description of the near tip stress field and the prediction of when fracture occurs is well established for brittle materials that exhibit linear elastic behavior. However, in ductile materials or conditions that violate linear elastic assumptions (Aluminum alloys, Al 2024-T3, Al 2024- T351 etc.), the elastic-plastic crack-tip stress fields are characterized by the Hutchison-Rice-Rosengren (HRR) field. The J-integral is commonly used to characterize amplitude of the HRR field under elastic-plastic conditions. The J-integral has been demonstrated for crack-tip fields that are under high constraint conditions (i.e., small-scale plasticity where the J-dominance is maintained). However, as the external load increases, yielding changes from small- to largescale plasticity and usually a loss of constraint (i.e., reduction in the triaxial stress field along the crack front). The loss of constraint leads to the deviation of the crack-tip stress fields from that given by the HRR field. Hence, the J-dominance will be gradually lost and additional parameter(s) are required to quantify the crack-tip stress fields and predict fracture behavior. The assessment objectives were to: 1) implement a two-parameter (i.e., J-A) fracture criterion into an elastic-plastic three-dimensional (3D) finite element analysis (FEA), 2) validate the implementation by comparison with the A parameter from literature data, 3) conduct material characterization tests to quantify the material behavior and provide fracture data for validation of the J-A fracture criteria, and (4) perform evaluations to establish if the J-A criteria can be used to predict fracture in a ductile metallic material (e.g., aluminum alloys). The A parameter in these criteria is the second parameter in a three-term elastic-plastic asymptotic expansion of the neartip stress behavior. A series of extensive FEAs were performed using WARP3D software package to obtain solutions for the A parameter for different specimen configurations. The methodology needed for the estimation of the A parameter in the asymptotic expansion was developed and implemented using Matlab®. A user material (UMAT) routine was used to model the material stress-strain response using a Ramberg-Osgood power law with a hardening exponent (n) and a material coefficient (alpha). This UMAT routine was successfully implemented in WARP3D software and validated through comparison with the experimental data. Three configurations were extracted from published results: 1) center cracked plate (CCP), 2) single edge-cracked plate (SECP), and 3) double edge-cracked plate (DECP). These configurations and four other configurations (three-hole tension (THT)), three-point bend (3PTB), three-hole compact tension (3PCT), and compact tension (CT)) were analyzed to verify the methodology that was developed and implemented into WARP3D. Solutions of the A parameter were obtained for remote tension loading conditions that started with small-scale yielding and continued into the large-scale plasticity regime. The results indicate that the methodology developed can be used to calculate the elastic-plastic J-A parameters for test specimens with a range of crack geometries, material strain hardening behaviors, and loading conditions. The J-A parameters were implemented as fracture criteria and used to predict the test results. For comparison, other fracture criteria were used to predict the same test results. Major findings include: The A constraint parameter A varies with specimen type and applied load thus accurate determination is crucial in predicting the failure load, and the A parameter is asymptotic as the failure load is approached, making an accurate determination difficult (i.e., small differences in the A parameter can cause large variations in failure load) for materials exhibiting elastic-plastic behavior. The failure predictions from J-A methodology were more accurate than the traditionally used KC and J methods, and have comparable scatter to that observed when using the crack-tip opening angle (CTOA) method. However, the J-A methodology requires considerable effort (expertise level and labor) to implement and to evaluate the A parameter for different specimen types and materials, or to apply this methodology to part-through crack (e.g., 3D problems) structural applications.

Hamm, Kenneth R., Jr.↗

Scenario Development: Proposal of a Methodology for Different Host Rocks and Disposal Concepts - 19007

Scenario development is an essential part of the assessment of the long-term safety of a repository for radioactive waste. The new act on site selection in Germany in 2017 requires that salt, clay and crystalline rock are studied as possible sites for repositories. So far, a comprehensive methodology for scenario development has been developed only for a site in salt rock in Germany within the Preliminary Safety Analysis (VSG). The question arose whether this methodology is transferable to other host rocks and disposal concepts and which modifications may be necessary. The transferability was shown in the project ANSICHT for clay rock sites while introducing some modifications of the methodology. This project studied the transferability of crystalline rock sites, however, there is no suitable safety and disposal concept or even a generic site yet. To study the transferability, initial barriers and FEP for different concepts were selected and the first steps of the methodology for crystalline rock were applied and discussed. It was concluded that the definition of barriers as containment providing rock zone (CPRZ) is difficult but important for the application of the methodology. Concepts for crystalline rock can foresee a CPRZ within the host rock or above. If the concept is using engineered barriers only and no CPRZ, the number of initial barriers is low. This will subsequently lead to a more complex scenario development since long FEP chains have to be considered. Based on the discussion so far, the transferability of the methodology seems to be feasible in general. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Method of Finite Averages: A rigorous upscaling methodology for heterogeneous porous media

Rigorous upscaling techniques offer accurate and computationally-efficient strategies for modeling the average behaviors of multi-physical, multiscale phenomena in geological porous media. However, such techniques often rely on a variety of methodological assumptions that prohibit their rigorous application to practical systems (e.g., systems involving heterogeneous porous media, system-scale boundary conditions, and fine-scale dynamics that are not diffusion-dominant). In this work, we aim to formulate an upscaling methodology with few methodological assumptions to provide high levels of model generality and foster the utilization of rigorously-derived upscaled models in practice. In particular, we introduce the Method of Finite Averages (MoFA), a novel upscaling methodology for rigorously modeling heterogeneous porous media and system-scale boundary conditions. We then detail MoFA’s implementation for the advective–diffusive transport of a single species and compare the methodology with classic numerical techniques, as well as other rigorous upscaling techniques, to highlight MoFA’s unique combination of rigor and generality. We then validate the derived model while demonstrating its benefits in three numerical experiments. The results suggest that (1.) the applicability and a priori error guarantees of MoFA models do not directly depend on system geometry, (2.) a model’s applicability and error guarantees can be can arbitrarily expanded and reduced, respectively, with further computational expense, and (3.) downscaling with MoFA provides an efficient strategy for generating accurate pore-scale solutions from upscaled results. Ultimately, the results evidence that upscaled models can be rigorously derived for heterogeneous porous media systems and resolved in a fraction of the time it takes to perform the equivalent pore-scale simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Multicriterion benefit evaluation methodology for safety enhancements in nuclear power plants and application for FLEX strategies

Here we propose a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) methodology for evaluating costs and benefits of implementing safety enhancements in nuclear power plants. The MCBE methodology establishes a comprehensive evaluation scope using multiple evaluation criteria (including public risk, occupational risk, plant revenue, and plant cost) and multiple contexts (including plant normal operations, incidents, and accidents). The MCBE methodology formulates a benefit or cost element as the product of a monetary consequence and its occurrence-likelihood change. The MCBE methodology also incorporates a decision maker’ preferences toward occurrence likelihood and monetary consequence into cost and benefit estimations through a modified usage of cumulative prospect theory. This paper applies the MCBE methodology to the implementation of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX) in a generic nuclear power plant as an illustrative example. The FLEX benefits are evaluated through three types of influence paths: plant safety enhancement, risk-informed activities, and potential additional credit of FLEX in supporting plant operation and maintenance-efficiency improvement. The benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of FLEX implementation is calculated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to examine the impacts of modeling assumptions and input parameter values on the BCR.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Microstructural Materials Design Via Deep Adversarial Learning Methodology

Identifying the key microstructure representations is crucial for computational materials design (CMD). However, existing microstructure characterization and reconstruction (MCR) techniques have limitations to be applied for microstructural materials design. Some MCR approaches are not applicable for microstructural materials design because no parameters are available to serve as design variables, while others introduce significant information loss in either microstructure representation and/or dimensionality reduction. In this work, we present a deep adversarial learning methodology that overcomes the limitations of existing MCR techniques. In the proposed methodology, generative adversarial networks (GAN) are trained to learn the mapping between latent variables and microstructures. Thereafter, the low-dimensional latent variables serve as design variables, and a Bayesian optimization framework is applied to obtain microstructures with desired material property. Due to the special design of the network architecture, the proposed methodology is able to identify the latent (design) variables with desired dimensionality, as well as capturing complex material microstructural characteristics. The validity of the proposed methodology is tested numerically on a synthetic microstructure dataset and its effectiveness for microstructural materials design is evaluated through a case study of optimizing optical performance for energy absorption. Additional features, such as scalability and transferability, are also demonstrated in this work. In essence, the proposed methodology provides an end-to-end solution for microstructural materials design, in which GAN reduces information loss and preserves more microstructural characteristics, and the GP-Hedge optimization improves the efficiency of design exploration.

Engineering↗

A Methodology for the Integration of a Mechanistic Source Term Analysis in a Probabilistic Framework for Advanced Reactors

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) and Argonne National Laboratory are currently engaged in a joint effort to modernize and develop probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for advanced non-light water reactors. At a high level, the primary outcome of this project will be the development of next-generation PRA methodologies that will enable risk-informed prioritization of safety- and reliability-focused research and development, while also identifying gaps that may be resolved through additional research. A subset of this effort is the development of PRA methodologies to conduct a mechanistic source term (MST) analysis for event sequences that could result in the release of radionuclides. The MST analysis seeks to realistically model and assess the transport, retention, and release of radionuclides from the reactor to the environment. The MST methods developed during this project seek to satisfy the requirements of the Mechanistic Source Term element of the ASME/ANS Non-LWR PRA standard. The MST methodology consists of separate analysis approaches for risk-significant and non-risk significant event sequences that may result in the release of radionuclides from the reactor. For risk-significant event sequences, the methodology focuses on a detailed assessment, using mechanistic models, of radionuclide release from the fuel, transport through and release from the primary system, transport in the containment, and finally release to the environment. The analysis approach for non-risk significant event sequences examines the possibility of large radionuclide releases due to events such as re-criticality or the complete loss of radionuclide barriers. This paper provides details on the MST methodology, including the interface between the MST analysis and other elements of the PRA, and provides a simplified example MST calculation for a sodium fast reactor.

Grabaskas, Dave↗

A Methodology for the Development of a Reliability Database for an Advanced Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessment

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) and Argonne National Laboratory are currently engaged in a joint effort to modernize and develop probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for advanced non-light water reactors. At a high level the primary outcome of this project will be the development of next-generation PRA methodologies that will enable risk-informed prioritization of safety- and reliability-focused research and development, while also identifying gaps that may be resolved through additional research. A subset of this effort is the development of a reliability database (RDB) methodology to determine applicable reliability data for inclusion in the quantification of the PRA. The RDB method developed during this project seeks to satisfy the requirements of the Data Analysis element of the ASME/ANS Non-LWR PRA standard. The RDB methodology utilizes a relevancy test to examine reliability data and determine whether it is appropriate to include as part of the reliability database for the PRA. The relevancy test compares three component properties to establish the level of similarity to components examined as part of the PRA. These properties include the component function, the component failure modes, and the environment/boundary conditions of the component. The relevancy test is used to gauge the quality of data found in a variety of sources, such as advanced reactor-specific databases, non-advanced reactor nuclear databases, and non-nuclear databases. The RDB also establishes the integration of expert judgment or separate reliability analysis with past reliability data. This paper provides details on the RDB methodology, and includes an example application of the RDB methodology for determining the reliability of the intermediate heat exchanger of a sodium fast reactor. The example explores a variety of reliability data sources, and assesses their applicability for the PRA of interest through the use of the relevancy test.

Grabaskas, Dave↗

Methodologies for Reservoir Characterization Using Fluid Inclusion Gas Chemistry

The purpose of this project was to: 1) evaluate the relationship between geothermal fluid processes and the compositions of the fluid inclusion gases trapped in the reservoir rocks; and 2) develop methodologies for interpreting fluid inclusion gas data in terms of the chemical, thermal and hydrological properties of geothermal reservoirs. Phase 1 of this project was designed to conduct the following: 1) model the effects of boiling, condensation, conductive cooling and mixing on selected gaseous species; using fluid compositions obtained from geothermal wells, 2) evaluate, using quantitative analyses provided by New Mexico Tech (NMT), how these processes are recorded by fluid inclusions trapped in individual crystals; and 3) determine if the results obtained on individual crystals can be applied to the bulk fluid inclusion analyses determined by Fluid Inclusion Technology (FIT). Our initial studies however, suggested that numerical modeling of the data would be premature. We observed that the gas compositions, determined on bulk and individual samples were not the same as those discharged by the geothermal wells. Gases discharged from geothermal wells are CO 2 -rich and contain low concentrations of light gases (i.e. H 2 , He, N, Ar, CH4). In contrast many of our samples displayed enrichments in these light gases. Efforts were initiated to evaluate the reasons for the observed gas distributions. As a first step, we examined the potential importance of different reservoir processes using a variety of commonly employed gas ratios (e.g. Giggenbach plots). The second technical target was the development of interpretational methodologies. We have develop methodologies for the interpretation of fluid inclusion gas data, based on the results of Phase 1, geologic interpretation of fluid inclusion data, and integration of the data. These methodologies can be used in conjunction with the relevant geological and hydrological information on the system to create fluid models for the system. The hope is that the methodologies developed will allow bulk fluid inclusion gas analysis to be a useful tool for estimating relative temperatures, identifying the sources and origins of the geothermal fluids, and developing conceptual models that can be used to help target areas of enhanced permeability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Regional Shelter Analysis Methodology

The fallout from a nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill 100,000 or more people through exposure to external gamma (fallout) radiation. Existing buildings can reduce radiation exposure by placing material between fallout particles and exposed people. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was tasked with developing an operationally feasible methodology that could improve fallout casualty estimates. The methodology, called a Regional Shelter Analysis, combines the fallout protection that existing buildings provide civilian populations with the distribution of people in various locations. The Regional Shelter Analysis method allows the consideration of (a) multiple building types and locations within buildings, (b) country specific estimates, (c) population posture (e.g., unwarned vs. minimally warned), and (d) the time of day (e.g., night vs. day). The protection estimates can be combined with fallout predictions (or measurements) to (a) provide a more accurate assessment of exposure and injury and (b) evaluate the effectiveness of various casualty mitigation strategies. This report describes the Regional Shelter Analysis methodology, highlights key operational aspects (including demonstrating that the methodology is compatible with current tools), illustrates how to implement the methodology, and provides suggestions for future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Report on an Assessment of the Application of EPP Results from the Strain Limit Evaluation Procedure to the Prediction of Cyclic Life Based on the SMT Methodology

The goal of the proposed integrated Elastic Perfectly-Plastic (EPP) and Simplified Model Test (SMT) methodology is to incorporate an SMT data based approach for creep-fatigue damage evaluation into the EPP methodology to avoid the separate evaluation of creep and fatigue damage and eliminate the requirement for stress classification in current methods; thus greatly simplifying evaluation of elevated temperature cyclic service. This methodology should minimize over-conservatism while properly accounting for localized defects and stress risers. To support the implementation of the proposed methodology and to verify the applicability of the code rules, analytical studies and evaluation of thermomechanical test results continued in FY17. This report presents the results of those studies. An EPP strain limits methodology assessment was based on recent two-bar thermal ratcheting test results on 316H stainless steel in the temperature range of 405 to 7050C. Strain range predictions from the EPP evaluation of the two-bar tests were also evaluated and compared with the experimental results. The role of sustained primary loading on cyclic life was assessed using the results of pressurized SMT data from tests on Alloy 617 at 9500C. A viscoplastic material model was used in an analytic simulation of two-bar tests to compare with EPP strain limits assessments using isochronous stress strain curves that are consistent with the viscoplastic material model. A finite element model of a prior 304H stainless steel Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) nozzle-to-sphere test was developed and used for an EPP strain limits and creep-fatigue code case damage evaluations. A theoretical treatment of a recurring issue with convergence criteria for plastic shakedown illustrated the role of computer machine precision in EPP calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Utility Sector Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand: Updates to Methodology and Results

This report presents revisions to the methodology for estimating the utility sector impacts associated with electricity demand reductions, first published in our 2014 study. The earlier report described how to calculate utility impact factors based on data from the Energy Information Agency's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections of electricity supply and demand. The 2014 methodology relied on data from the AEO Reference case, and side cases implementing demand-side policies with a substantial impact on total demand. Beginning in 2015, the AEO publication schedule was revised to limit the number of side cases published with each AEO, and no suitable demand-focused side cases have been released since 2014. Hence, this paper presents a generalization of the methodology that allows a uniform approach irrespective of the nature of the side cases published with the AEO. The impact factors we calculate represent coeffcients of variation between a unit reduction to site electricity demand and corresponding supply-side changes, including reductions to electric power generation and primary fuel consumption by fuel type, emissions of criteria pollutants (Hg, NO x and SO 2 ) and greenhouse gases (CO 2 , N 2 O and CH 4 ), and total installed capacity by plant type. The impact factors are time-dependent, and also depend on the demand sector and end use. In this report, we apply the methodology to all AEO publications from 2014-2019, and all scenarios. We quantify the variation in factors across different side cases within each AEO, and across different AEO publications, and compare this to the variation due to changes in methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗