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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

An In Situ , Automated High-Explosives Aging Method Utilizing Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry

Understanding chemical changes that occur in high explosives as they age is of great importance to the safe employment and storage of these compounds. Traditional methods of aging high explosives even under accelerated aging conditions are time intensive with durations on the order of months to years. The nature of traditional aging analyses reduces each sample to a snapshot data point often separated widely in time, requiring many assumptions as to how the degradation products develop. Further complicating matters, several analytical techniques are typically employed for each sample analysis in order to ascertain an entire picture of the decomposition pathways. To address these shortcomings with existing methods, a new method of accelerated aging of high explosives utilizing comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled to high-resolution mass spectrometry (GC × GC-HRMS) was developed using 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) as a model compound for method development. This in situ automated method reduces the time scale of aging to a matter of hours using the inlet of the GC × GC as the aging vessel. GC × GC in combination with HRMS allowed for the collection of both evolved gases and other decomposition products produced during the entire aging process in real time with HRMS providing far greater certainty in identification of explosives aging products. Additionally, this method allowed for a higher throughput of samples with greatly simplified sample preparation. Chemometric analysis of the GC × GC-HRMS data set via the alteration analysis (ALA) enabled discovery of statistically significant chemical changes providing insight into the variation of decomposition pathways with varying aging temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing density functional tight-binding method for large organic molecules through equivariant neural networks

Semi-empirical quantum-mechanical (QM) methods have become valuable tools for studying complex (bio)molecular systems due to their balance between computational efficiency and accuracy. A key aspect of these methods is their parameterization, which not only governs the reliability of the results but also provides an opportunity to enhance their overall performance. In our previous work [J. Phys. Chem. Lett., 2021, 11, 16], we advanced the third-order semi-empirical density functional tight-binding (DFTB3) method for computing multiple properties of small molecules by developing the machine learning (ML) potential NN rep to bridge the gap between DFTB3 electronic components and those of the hybrid DFT-PBE0 functional. To overcome the limitations of NN rep , we introduce the EquiDTB framework, which leverages physics-inspired equivariant neural networks (NN) to parameterize scalable and transferable many-body Δ TB potentials, replacing the standard pairwise DFTB repulsive potential. This advancement extends the applicability of our ML-corrected DFTB approach to larger molecules and non-covalent systems (including only C, N, O, and H atoms), going beyond the chemical space represented in the training QM datasets. The enhanced performance of EquiDTB over the standard TB methods is demonstrated by the accurate computation of the atomic forces of S66x8 molecular dimers, as well as their interaction energies. Moreover, EquiDTB can be effectively employed to explore the potential energy surfaces of large and flexible drug-like molecules—for example, to determine the minimum energy path between isomers, analyze structural transitions during dynamical simulations, compute vibrational modes, and investigate energetic rankings. The performance for single molecules slightly decreases when the DFTB electronic energy is reduced to first-order but remains superior to standard TB methods. Our work thus demonstrates that an optimal integration of an equivariant NN with QM datasets can advance the DFTB method while maintaining high efficiency, paving the way for reliable (bio)molecular simulations.

Medrano Sandonas, Leonardo [Technische Universität↗

DOE OSTI2026

Calculations of enrichment cascade performance using enrichment probabilities – a new method

A new method for calculating the performance of uranium enrichment cascades is presented. The method assigns a unique “enrichment probability” for each isotope to move up or down from the basic enrichment unit, allowing independent material balance calculations for each isotope. The formulation is much simpler than previous methods, which rely on isotopic ratios, and this method can be used when previous methods fail. This method gives the same results as published cases for 235 U enrichment and also gives good agreement with published data on minor isotopes. Some comparisons with measured data and other calculations are given. One case shows that the maximum 235 U enrichment that can be obtained by enrichment of reprocessed uranium (0.02% 234 U initial) is 82%. Another example shows a large difference in the minor isotopic content of material enriched in batches compared to continuous enrichment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity of magnetic islands in permanent magnet stellarators using the gradient and Hessian methods

Stellarator plasmas are known to be very sensitive to perturbations in the magnetic field. The permanent magnet stellarator was in part developed as a solution to high machining tolerances placed on the shape properties of electromagnetic coils in traditional stellarators. However, as a consequence of this high sensitivity to the field structure, sensitivities of permanent magnet stellarator plasmas to perturbations of permanent magnet properties must necessarily be well-understood. The gradient and Hessian matrix methods have been previously demonstrated to be useful sensitivity analysis methods for modular coils. We apply these two methods to the study of island width sensitivities in both the MUSE and PM4STELL permanent magnet stellarator projects. These sensitivity methods were used to determine the relative impacts of permanent magnet parameter perturbations on island widths in the vacuum field approximation of both stellarator equilibria. The square of resonant magnetic field perturbation is used here as a proxy for island width. In particular, gradients of magnetizations of individual magnets were examined in MUSE, as well as gradients of magnet group displacements informed by device design. Three different forms of permanent magnet magnetization perturbations are investigated for MUSE, and the flux surface response to perturbations is demonstrated. The Hessian matrix method is applied to PM4STELL, illustrating the sensitivity of dominant island widths to displacements of toroidal wedge structures. These methods allow for selective direction of experimental resources toward regions of heightened sensitivity, while constraints on less impactful permanent magnet parameters can be relaxed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent evolution of risk analyses in atomic bomb survivor studies: new methods and applications

Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.

Oncology↗

DOE OSTI2024

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure ranking methods

A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction has been organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre. The results are presented in two parts, with this second part focusing on methods for ranking crystal structures in order of stability. The exercise involved standardized sets of structures seeded from a range of structure generation methods. Participants from 22 groups applied several periodic DFT-D methods, machine learned potentials, force fields derived from empirical data or quantum chemical calculations, and various combinations of the above. In addition, one non-energy-based scoring function was used. Results showed that periodic DFT-D methods overall agreed with experimental data within expected error margins, while one machine learned model, applying system-specific AIMnet potentials, agreed with experiment in many cases demonstrating promise as an efficient alternative to DFT-based methods. For target XXXII, a consensus was reached across periodic DFT methods, with consistently high predicted energies of experimental forms relative to the global minimum (above 4 kJ mol −1 at both low and ambient temperatures) suggesting a more stable polymorph is likely not yet observed. The calculation of free energies at ambient temperatures offered improvement of predictions only in some cases (for targets XXVII and XXXI). Several avenues for future research have been suggested, highlighting the need for greater efficiency considering the vast amounts of resources utilized in many cases.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing ACPF Analysis: Integrating Newton-Raphson Method with Gradient Descent and Computational Graphs

This paper presents a new method for enhancing Alternating Current Power Flow (ACPF) analysis. The method integrates the Newton-Raphson (NR) method with Enhanced-Gradient Descent (GD) and computational graphs. The integration of renewable energy sources in power systems introduces variability and unpredictability, and this method addresses these challenges. It leverages the robustness of NR for accurate approximations and the flexibility of GD for handling variable conditions, all without requiring Jacobian matrix inversion. Furthermore, computational graphs provide a structured and visual framework that simplifies and systematizes the application of these methods. The goal of this fusion is to overcome the limitations of traditional ACPF methods and improve the resilience, adaptability, and efficiency of modern power grid analyses. We validate the effectiveness of our advanced algorithm through comprehensive testing on established IEEE benchmark systems. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that our approach not only speeds up the convergence process but also ensures consistent performance across diverse system states, representing a significant advancement in power flow computation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Divide and conquer: using RhizoVision Explorer to aggregate data from multiple root scans using image concatenation and statistical methods

Roots are important in agricultural and natural systems for determining plant productivity and soil carbon inputs. Sometimes, the amount of roots in a sample is too much to fit into a single scanned image, so the sample is divided among several scans, and there is no standard method to aggregate the data. Here, we describe and validate two methods for standardizing measurements across multiple scans: image concatenation and statistical aggregation. We developed a Python script that identifies which images belong to the same sample and returns a single, larger concatenated image. These concatenated images and the original images were processed with RhizoVision Explorer, a free and open-source software. An R script was developed, which identifies rows of data belonging to the same sample and applies correct statistical methods to return a single data row for each sample. These two methods were compared using example images from switchgrass, poplar, and various tree and ericaceous shrub species from a northern peatland and the Arctic. Most root measurements were nearly identical between the two methods except median diameter, which cannot be accurately computed by statistical aggregation. We believe the availability of these methods will be useful to the root biology community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Methods for safely sharing dual-use genetic data

Background: Some genetic data has dual-use potential. Sharing pathogen data has shown tremendous value. For example therapeutic development and lineage tracking during the COVID pandemic. This data sharing is complicated by the fact that these data have the potential to be used for harm. The genome sequence of a pathogen can be used to enable malicious genetic engineering approaches or to recreate the pathogen from synthetic DNA. Standard data security methods can be applied to genetic data, but when data is shared between institutions, ensuring appropriate security can be difficult. Sensitive data that is shared internationally among a wide array of institutions can be especially difficult to control. Methods for securely storing and sharing genetic data with potential for dual-use are needed to mitigate this potential harm.Results: Here we propose new methods that allow genetic data to be shared in a data format that prevents a nefarious actor from accessing sensitive aspects of the data. Our methods obfuscate raw sequence data by pooling reads from different samples. This approach can ensure that data is secure while stored and during electronic transfer. We demonstrate that by pooling raw sequence data from multiple samples of the same organism, the ability to fully reconstruct any individual sample is prevented. In the pooled data, most genomic information remains, but reads or mutations cannot be directly attributed to any individual sample. To further restrict access to information, regions of a genome can be removed from the reads.Conclusion: Our methods obscure genomic information within raw sequence reads. This method can allow genetic data to be stored and shared while preventing a nefarious actor from being able to perfectly reconstruct an organism. Broad-scale sequence information remains, while fine scale details about specific samples are difficult or impossible to reconstruct. Our software is available at https://github.com/Geneinfosec-Inc/ReadMixer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tensor Network Space-Time Spectral Collocation Method for Time-Dependent Convection-Diffusion-Reaction Equations

Emerging tensor network techniques for solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs), known for their ability to break the curse of dimensionality, deliver new mathematical methods for ultra-fast numerical solutions of high-dimensional problems. Here, we introduce a Tensor Train (TT) Chebyshev spectral collocation method, in both space and time, for the solution of the time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction (CDR) equation with inhomogeneous boundary conditions, in Cartesian geometry. Previous methods for numerical solution of time-dependent PDEs often used finite difference for time, and a spectral scheme for the spatial dimensions, which led to a slow linear convergence. Spectral collocation space-time methods show exponential convergence; however, for realistic problems they need to solve large four-dimensional systems. We overcome this difficulty by using a TT approach, as its complexity only grows linearly with the number of dimensions. We show that our TT space-time Chebyshev spectral collocation method converges exponentially, when the solution of the CDR is smooth, and demonstrate that it leads to a very high compression of linear operators from terabytes to kilobytes in TT-format, and a speedup of tens of thousands of times when compared to a full-grid space-time spectral method. These advantages allow us to obtain the solutions at much higher resolutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2024

DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning Methods

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret exactly. We systematically compare aleatoric uncertainty measured by two UQ techniques, Deep Ensembles (DE) and Deep Evidential Regression (DER). Our method focuses on both zero-dimensional (0D) and two-dimensional (2D) data, to explore how the UQ methods function for different data dimensionalities. We investigate uncertainty injected on the input and output variables and include a method to propagate uncertainty in the case of input uncertainty so that we can compare the predicted aleatoric uncertainty to the known values. We experiment with three levels of noise. The aleatoric uncertainty predicted across all models and experiments scales with the injected noise level. However, the predicted uncertainty is miscalibrated to $\rm{std}(\sigma_{\rm al})$ with the true uncertainty for half of the DE experiments and almost all of the DER experiments. The predicted uncertainty is the least accurate for both UQ methods for the 2D input uncertainty experiment and the high-noise level. While these results do not apply to more complex data, they highlight that further research on post-facto calibration for these methods would be beneficial, particularly for high-noise and high-dimensional settings.

Nevin, Rebecca↗

DOE OSTI2025

An eigenvalue-based method for computing the relaxed pressure in compressible multiphase flow with N phases

The modeling of compressible multiphase flows is a decades-old area of study with many applications across various fields. Many of these application areas use stiff pressure relaxation. This process involves the solution of a nonlinear system with N + 1 equations and N + 1 unknowns, where N is the number of phases. The resolution of this system with general equations of state (EOSs) is difficult. Furthermore, nonlinear systems can admit multiple solutions, and current solution methods do not address this possibility. Very recently, a thermodynamic relaxation method was introduced, which effectively maps a relatively simple predictor equation of state onto a more complex target equation of state. In this context, the target EOSs are the chosen EOSs for the thermodynamic model. Furthermore, this thermodynamic relaxation has the benefit of simplifying the stiff pressure relaxation system of equations. In this article, we show this system reduces to a polynomial of degree N, which can be recast as an eigenvalue problem through the use of the associated companion matrix. We show that although this eigenvalue method is generally less efficient than Newton–Raphson iteration, it does not suffer from convergence issues and finds all N roots of the polynomial. Hence, the method provides a fail-safe for root-finding iterative methods and a way to address the issue of multiple solutions to the nonlinear system of equations in stiff pressure relaxation.

Eigenvalue algorithm↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗