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75 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.

coronal mass↗
NASA NTRS1992

Global electric field determination in the Earth's outer magnetosphere using charged particles

Although many properties of the Earth's magnetosphere have been measured and quantified in the past 30 years since it was discovered, one fundamental (for a zeroeth order magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibrium) measurement was made infrequently and with poor spatial coverage: the global electric field. This oversight is in part due to the difficulty of measuring a plasma electric field, and in part due to the difficulty of measuring a plasma electric field, and in part due to the neglect of theorists. However, there is renewed interest in the convection electric field, since it has been realized that it is vital for understanding many aspects of the magnetosphere: the global MHD equilibrium, reconnection rates, Region 2 Birkeland currents, magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling, ring current and radiation belt transport, substorm injections, acceleration mechanisms, etc. Unfortunately the standard experimental methods have not been able to synthesize a global field (excepting the pioneering work of McIlwain's geostationary models), and we are left with an overly simplistic theoretical field, the Volland-Stern electric field mode. Again, single point measurements of the plasma pause were used to infer the appropriate amplitudes of the model, parameterized by Kp (Maynard & Chen, JGR 1975). Although this result was never intended to be the definitive electric field model, it has gone nearly unchanged for 15 years. However, the data sets being taken today require a great deal more accuracy than can be provided by the Volland-Stern model. Nor has the variability of the electric field shielding been properly addressed, although effects of penetrating magnetospheric electric fields has been seen in mid- and low-latitude ionospheric data sets. The growing interests in substorm dynamics also requires a much better assessment of the electric fields responsible for particle injections. Thus, we proposed and developed algorithms for extracting electric fields from particle data taken in the earth's magnetosphere. As a test of the effectiveness of these techniques, we analyzed data taken by the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft in equatorial orbit between 1984-1988. Some analytic tools had to be developed before construction of computer algorithms, and they are discussed.

Eastman, T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Robe Development for Electrical Conductivity Analysis in an Electron Gun Produced Helium Plasma

The use of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) power conversion systems, potentially coupled with a fission power source, is currently being investigated as a driver for an advanced propulsion system, such as a plasma thruster. The efficiency of a MHD generator is strongly dependent on the electrical conductivity of the fluid that passes through the generator; power density increases as fluid conductivity increases. Although traditional MHD flows depend on thermal ionization to enhance the electrical conductivity, ionization due to nuclear interactions may achieve a comparable or improved conductivity enhancement while avoiding many of the limitations inherent to thermal ionization. Calculations suggest that nuclear-enhanced electrical conductivity increases as the neutron flux increases; conductivity of pure He-3 greater than 10 mho/m may be achievable if exposed to a flux greater than 10(exp 12) neutrons/cm2/s.) However, this remains to be demonstrated experimentally. An experimental facility has been constructed at the Propulsion Research Center at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, using helium as the test fluid. High energy electrons will be used to simulate the effects of neutron-induced ionization of helium gas to produce a plasma. These experiments will be focused on diagnosis of the plasma in a virtually static system; results will be applied to future tests with a MHD system. Initial experiments will utilize a 50 keV electron gun that can operate at up to a current of 200 micro A. Spreading the electron beam over a four inch diameter window results in an electron flux of 1.5x 10(exp 13) e/sq cm/s. The equivalent neutron flux that would produce the same ionization fraction in helium is 1x10(exp 12) n/sq cm/s. Experiments will simulate the neutron generated plasma modeled by Bitteker, which takes into account the products of thermal neutron absorption in He-3, and includes various ion species in estimating the conductivity of the resulting plasma. Several different probes will be designed and implemented to verify the plasma kinetics model. System parameters and estimated operating ranges are summarized. The predicted ionization fraction, electron density, and conductivity levels are provided in for an equivalent neutron flux of 1x10(exp 12) n/cm2/s. Understanding the complex plasma kinetics throughout a MHD channel is necessary to design an optimal power conversion system for space propulsion applications. The proposed experiments seek to fully characterize the helium plasma and to determine the reliability of each measurement technique, such that they may be applied to more advanced MHD studies. The expected value of each plasma parameter determined from theoretical models will be verified experimentally by several independent techniques to determine the most reliable method of obtaining each parameter. The results of these experiments will be presented in the final paper.

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon M.↗