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Summary of Research Report

Ten papers, published in various publications, on buckling, and the effects of imperfections on various structures are presented. These papers are: (1) Buckling mode localization in elastic plates due to misplacement in the stiffner location; (2) On vibrational imperfection sensitivity on Augusti's model structure in the vicinity of a non-linear static state; (3) Imperfection sensitivity due to elastic moduli in the Roorda Koiter frame; (4) Buckling mode localization in a multi-span periodic structure with a disorder in a single span; (5) Prediction of natural frequency and buckling load variability due to uncertainty in material properties by convex modeling; (6) Derivation of multi-dimensional ellipsoidal convex model for experimental data; (7) Passive control of buckling deformation via Anderson localization phenomenon; (8)Effect of the thickness and initial im perfection on buckling on composite cylindrical shells: asymptotic analysis and numerical results by BOSOR4 and PANDA2; (9) Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis; (10) Buckling of structures with uncertain imperfections - Personal perspective.

Elishakoff, Isaac↗

Quality Control Algorithms and Proposed Integration Process for Wind Profilers Used by Launch Vehicle Systems

Impact of winds to space launch vehicle include Design, Certification Day-of-launch (DOL) steering commands (1)Develop "knockdowns" of load indicators (2) Temporal uncertainty of flight winds. Currently use databases from weather balloons. Includes discrete profiles and profile pair datasets. Issues are : (1)Larger vehicles operate near design limits during ascent 150 discrete profiles per month 110-217 seasonal 2.0 and 3.5-hour pairs Balloon rise time (one hour) and drift (up to 100 n mi) Advantages of the Alternative approach using Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) are: (1) Obtain larger sample size (2) Provide flexibility for assessing trajectory changes due to winds (3) Better representation of flight winds.

Decker, Ryan↗

James Webb Space Telescope Deployment Brushless DC Motor Characteristics Analysis

A DC motor's performance is usually characterized by a series of tests, which are conducted by pass/fail criteria. In most cases, these tests are adequate to address the performance characteristics under environmental and loading effects with some uncertainties and decent power/torque margins. However, if the motor performance requirement is very stringent, a better understanding of the motor characteristics is required. The purpose of this paper is to establish a standard way to extract the torque components of the brushless motor and gear box characteristics of a high gear ratio geared motor from the composite geared motor testing and motor parameter measurement. These torque components include motor magnetic detent torque, Coulomb torque, viscous torque, windage torque, and gear tooth sliding torque. The Aerospace Corp bearing torque model and MPB torque models are used to predict the Coulomb torque of the motor rotor bearings and to model the viscous components. Gear tooth sliding friction torque is derived from the dynamo geared motor test data. With these torque data, the geared motor mechanical efficiency can be estimated and provide the overall performance of the geared motor versus several motor operating parameters such as speed, temperature, applied current, and transmitted power.

Tran, Ahn N.↗

Evaluation of the Stratospheric and Tropospheric Bromine Burden over Fairbanks, Alaska Based on Column Retrievals of Bromine Monoxide

In spring 2011, columns of bromine monoxide (BrO) were retrieved over Fairbanks, Alaska using a ground-based multifunction differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MFDOAS) instrument. MFDOAS vertical column BrO is consistently lower than retrievals from the satellite-based Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), with a relative bias of 20 ± 14%. Numerous tropical-based studies suggest that 5 ± 2 ppt of bromine from very short-lived substances (VSLS) reaches the stratosphere. We evaluate upper limits on the contribution of VSLS to stratospheric bromine by treating the column retrievals of BrO as purely stratospheric and modeling the ratio of BrO to total inorganic bromine. The OMI and MFDOAS retrievals respectively present 8 and 5 ppt upper limits on the stratospheric injection of VSLS, and kinetic uncertainties in the daytime partitioning of bromine species decrease both values by ~1.6 ppt. The OMI-based estimate is in agreement with the 5 ppt tropical-based value for stratospheric injection of VSLS if the tropospheric column of BrO is 1.5 × 10(exp 13) molecules/cu. cm over Fairbanks, which is within the range of uncertainty of a second ground-based instrument that monitored tropospheric BrO during the campaign. Because our ground-based instruments detected no BrO near the surface, this value for tropospheric BrO would originate from the free troposphere and is in agreement with previous retrievals of background tropospheric BrO. Our calculations of tropospheric BrO over Fairbanks are most sensitive to uncertainties in the stratospheric loading of VSLS, followed by the difference between the OMI and MFDOAS retrievals of BrO.

Pamela A. Wales↗

Results of Use of Heat Flux Sensors on Liquid Hydrogen Tanks

Heat flux sensors were used to characterize the performance of insulation on the Structural Heat Intercept, Insulation, and Vibration Evaluation Rig (SHIIVER), a large-scale test article designed to simulate upper stage cryogenic propellant tank thermal performance in simulated space environments. Usually, the insulation heat loads are derived from calculations removing all other heat sources and attributing the residual heat load to the insulation system. Testing for SHIIVER included the tank being just insulated with spray-on-foam insulation as well as covering the domes with multilayer insulation while leaving the barrel section insulated with spray-on-foam. Heat flux sensors were located at multiple locations on both domes as well as on the barrel section of the tank. Results from the SHIIVER testing using the heat flux sensors are compared to other calculated heat inputs for both liquid nitrogen and liquid hydrogen testing as a function of tank fill level. Further investigation into the transient nature of the SHIIVER testing including the heat flux sensors provided insight into heat flow patterns that may not have been otherwise seen using temperature sensors and calculated insulation heat loads. While the demonstrated uncertainties in the absolute values in the heat flux sensors are high, the values and the trends match well with other calculation methods. The results of SHIIVER allow for the use of heat flux sensors for measurements of insulation performance and dynamic system thermal response for future applications.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗

Results of Use of Heat Flux Sensors on Liquid Hydrogen Tanks

ABSTRACT: Heat flux sensors were used to characterize the performance of insulation on the Structural Heat Intercept, Insulation, and Vibration Evaluation Rig (SHIIVER), a large-scale test article designed to simulate upper stage cryogenic propellant tank thermal performance in simulated space environments. Usually, the insulation heat loads are derived from calculations removing all other heat sources and attributing the residual heat load to the insulation system. Testing for SHIIVER included the tank being just insulated with spray-on-foam insulation as well as covering the domes with multilayer insulation while leaving the barrel section insulated with spray-on-foam. Heat flux sensors were located at multiple locations on both domes as well as on the barrel section of the tank. Results from the SHIIVER testing using the heat flux sensors are compared to other calculated heat inputs for both liquid nitrogen and liquid hydrogen testing as a function of tank fill level. Further investigation into the transient nature of the SHIIVER testing including the heat flux sensors provided insight into heat flow patterns that may not have been otherwise seen using temperature sensors and calculated insulation heat loads. While the demonstrated uncertainties in the absolute values in the heat flux sensors are high, the values and the trends match well with other calculation methods. The results of SHIIVER allow for the use of heat flux sensors for measurements of insulation performance and dynamic system thermal response for future applications.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗

Implications of using MERRA-2 cloud water in aerosol wet scavenging for Pb-210 surface concentrations and vertical profiles in GEOS-Chem

Precipitation scavenging is the dominant loss process for a whole suite of aerosols but model parameterizations of this process are highly uncertain, substantially contributing to large uncertainties in the simulated loadings and radiative forcing of aerosols. Lead-210 (210Pb, radioactive half-life of 22.3 years) is produced by radioactive decay of soil-emitted gaseous 222Rn. It attaches to ambient submicron aerosols and is subject to precipitation scavenging processes. Liu et al. [2001] estimated the global mean lifetime of tropospheric 210Pb aerosols to be ~9 days using the GEOS-Chem model. Luo et al. [2019, 2020] provided an option to use MERRA-2 cloud water in the model aerosol scavenging scheme. In this study, we examine the impact of this revision on 210Pb simulations and compare results with climatological observations of 210Pb surface and UT/LS concentrations, as well as aircraft profile measurements from eleven NASA field missions.

Bo Zhang↗

Atmospheric Correction Inter-comparison eXercise, ACIX-II Land: An Assessment of Amospheric Correction Processors for Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 Over Land

The correction of the atmospheric effects on optical satellite images is essential for quantitative and multi-temporal remote sensing applications. In order to study the performance of the state-of-the-art methods in an integrated way, a voluntary and open-access benchmark Atmospheric Correction Inter-comparison eXercise (ACIX) was initiated in 2016 in the frame of Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Calibration & Validation (WGCV). The first exercise was extended in a second edition wherein twelve atmospheric correction (AC) processors, a substantially larger testing dataset and additional validation metrics were involved. The sites for the inter-comparison analysis were defined by investigating the full catalogue of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites for coincident measurements with satellites' overpass. Although there were more than one hundred sites for Copernicus Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 acquisitions, the analysis presented in this paper concerns only the common matchups amongst all processors, reducing the number to 79 and 62 sites respectively. Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Water Vapour (WV) retrievals were consequently validated based on the available AERONET observations. The processors mostly succeeded in retrieving AOD for relatively light to medium aerosol loading (AOD < 0.2) with uncertainties <0.08, while the overall uncertainty values were typically 0.23 ± 0.15. Better performances were observed for WV retrievals with >90% of the results falling within the suggested empirical specifications and with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) being mostly <0.25 g/cm2. Regarding Surface Reflectance (SR) validation two main approaches were followed. For the first one, a simulated SR reference dataset was computed over all of the test sites by using the 6SV (Second Simulation of the Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum vector code) full radiative transfer modelling (RTM) and AERONET measurements for the required aerosol variables and water vapour content. The performance assessment demonstrated that the retrievals were not biased for most of the bands. The uncertainties ranged from approximately 0.003 to 0.01 (excluding B01) for the best performing processors in both sensors' analyses. For the second one, measurements from the radiometric calibration network RadCalNet over La Crau (France) and Gobabeb (Namibia) were involved in the validation. The performance of the processors was in general consistent across all bands for both sensors and with low standard deviations (<0.04) between on-site and estimated surface reflectance. Overall, our study provides a good insight of AC algorithms' performance to developers and users, pointing out similarities and differences for AOD, WV and SR retrievals. Such validation though still lacks of ground-based measurements of known uncertainty to better assess and characterize the uncertainties in SR retrievals.

Atmospheric correction↗

Probabilistic progressive buckling of trusses

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to describe progressive buckling and truss collapse in view of the numerous uncertainties associated with the structural, material, and load variables (primitive variables) that describe the truss. Initially, the truss is deterministically analyzed for member forces, and member(s) in which the axial force exceeds the Euler buckling load are identified. These member(s) are then discretized with several intermediate nodes and a probabilistic buckling analysis is performed on the truss to obtain its probabilistic buckling loads and respective mode shapes. Furthermore, sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the primitive variables are investigated, margin of safety values for the truss are determined, and truss end node displacements are noted. These steps are repeated by sequentially removing the buckled member(s) until onset of truss collapse is reached. Results show that this procedure yields an optimum truss configuration for a given loading and for a specified reliability.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Probabilistic progressive buckling of trusses

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to describe progressive buckling and truss collapse in view of the numerous uncertainties associated with the structural, material, and load variables (primitive variables) that describe the truss. Initially, the truss is deterministically analyzed for member forces, and member(s) in which the axial force exceeds the Euler buckling load are identified. These member(s) are then discretized with several intermediate nodes and a probabilistic buckling analysis is performed on the truss to obtain its probabilistic buckling loads and respective mode shapes. Furthermore, sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the primitive variables are investigated, margin of safety values for the truss are determined, and truss end node displacements are noted. These steps are repeated by sequentially removing the buckled member(s) until onset of truss collapse is reached. Results show that this procedure yields an optimum truss configuration for a given loading and for a specified reliability.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis of adaptive/smart/intelligent space structures

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated for adaptive/smart/intelligent behavior. For each behavior, the scatter (ranges) in buckling loads, vibration frequencies, and member axial forces are probabilistically determined. Sensitivities associated with uncertainties in the structure, material and load variables that describe the truss are determined for different probabilities. The relative magnitude for these sensitivities are used to identify significant truss variables that control/classify its behavior to respond as an adaptive/smart/intelligent structure. Results show that the probabilistic buckling loads and vibration frequencies increase for each truss classification, with a substantial increase for intelligent trusses. Similarly, the probabilistic member axial forces reduce for adaptive and intelligent trusses and increase for smart trusses.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis of adaptive/smart/intelligent space structures

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated for adaptive/smart/intelligent behavior. For each behavior, the scatter (ranges) in buckling loads, vibration frequencies, and member axial forces are probabilistically determined. Sensitivities associated with uncertainties in the structure, material and load variables that describe the truss are determined for different probabilities. The relative magnitude for these sensitivities are used to identify significant truss variables that control/classify its behavior to respond as an adaptive/smart/intelligent structure. Results show that the probabilistic buckling loads and vibration frequencies increase for each truss classification, with a substantial increase for intelligent trusses. Similarly, the probabilistic member axial forces reduce for adaptive and intelligent trusses and increase for smart trusses.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

Probabilistic progressive buckling of trusses

A three-bay, space, cantilever truss is probabilistically evaluated to describe progressive buckling and truss collapse in view of the numerous uncertainties associated with the structural, material, and load variables that describe the truss. Initially, the truss is deterministically analyzed for member forces, and members in which the axial force exceeds the Euler buckling load are identified. These members are then discretized with several intermediate nodes, and a probabilistic buckling analysis is performed on the truss to obtain its probabilistic buckling loads and the respective mode shapes. Furthermore, sensitivities associated with the uncertainties in the primitive variables are investigated, margin of safety values for the truss are determined, and truss end node displacements are noted. These steps are repeated by sequentially removing buckled members until onset of truss collapse is reached. Results show that this procedure yields an optimum truss configuration for a given loading and for a specified reliability.

PROBABILISTIC BUCKLING ANALYSI↗

RTLS entry load relief parameter optimization

The results are presented of a study of a candidate load relief control law for use during the pullup phase of Return-to-Launch-Site (RTLS) abort entries. The control law parameters and cycle time which optimized performance of the normal load factor limiting phase (load relief phase) of an RTLS entry are examined. A set of control law gains, a smoothing parameter, and a normal force coefficient curve fit are established which resulted in good load relief performance considering the possible aerodynamic coefficient uncertainties defined. Also, the examination of various guidance cycle times revealed improved load relief performance with decreasing cycle time. A .5 second cycle provided smooth and adequate load relief in the presence of all the aerodynamic uncertainties examined.

Crull, T. J.↗

Buckling and Failure of Compression-Loaded Composite Cylindrical Shells With Geometric and Material Imperfections

The results of an experimental and numerical study of the effects of initial imperfections on the buckling response and failure of unstiffened thin-walled compression-loaded graphite-epoxy cylindrical shells are presented. The shells considered in the study have six different orthotropic or quasi-isotropic shell-wall laminates and two different shell-radius-to-thickness ratios. The numerical results include the effects of geometric shell-wall mid-surface imperfections, shell-wall thickness variations, local shell-wall ply-gaps associated with the fabrication process, shell-end geometric imperfections, nonuniform end loads, and the effects of elastic boundary conditions. Selected cylinder parameter uncertainties were also considered. Results that illustrate the effects of imperfections and uncertainties on the nonlinear response characteristics, buckling loads and failure the shells are presented. In addition, a common failure analysis is used to predict material failures in the shells.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗

Access flight hardware design and development

Several items were found to be of immense value in the design and development of the Assembly Concept for Construction of Erectable Space Structures (ACCESS) hardware. The early availability of mock-up and engineering test hardware helped to develop the concept and prove the feasibility of the experiment. The extensive neutral buoyancy testing was invaluable in developing the procedures and timelines, proving that the hardware functioned as intended, and effectively trained the astronauts. The early involvement of the crew systems/astronaut personnel was extremely beneficial in shaping the design to meet the EVA compatibility requirements. Also, the early definition of coupled loads and on-orbit dynamic responses can not be overemphasized due to the relative uncertainty in the magnitude of these loads and their impact on the design.

Rogers, John F.↗

Towards a Probabilistic Criterion for Preliminary Shell Design

Thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells are widely used structural elements in aeronautical and space applications. Buckling strength, which is a major concern in all these areas, is affected by the uncertainties in the definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, engineering models and the accuracy of the analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor or the so-called "knockdown" factor gamma, which usually results in an overly conservative design. In the present paper a new, reliability based, probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect isotropic shells is proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach based on a new, improved "knockdown" factor lambda(sub a) that is not as conservative as the traditional one. It is felt that by quantifying and understanding the "problem uncertainties" such as initial imperfections and their influence on the design variables, one can develop a better engineered, better designed and safer system.

Arbocz, Johann↗

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗