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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Learning in Power Modules: Wavelet-Enhanced Forecasting of Thermomechanical Degradation

Detecting internal defects in power electronics packages is critical for their performance and reliability, especially under extreme operating conditions, as these defects can lead to catastrophic failure if not properly addressed. Confocal scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) plays a key role in the nondestructive evaluation of bond layer degradation within a power electronics package by detecting defects such as delamination, voids, and cracks. However, accurately quantifying and predicting these defects from C-SAM images remains a significant challenge due to the low noise-to-signal ratio, which typically arises from both imaging process and bond patterns itself. In this paper, we explore machine learning strategies for processing C-SAM images and providing predictive models of defect growth. We use C-SAM images of sintered copper and sintered silver samples, which are obtained under accelerated thermal experiments, as the representative dataset for our study. We investigate the effect of Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms on these datasets to remove high-frequency noise and address noise across multiple scales with histogram equalization to enhance the contrast and improve the visibility of defects. As a result, defect boundaries can be clearly distinguished, enabling more accurate tracking of their growth over time. We then employ different time-series forecasting algorithms on the denoised images to formulate an image-based lifetime prediction model. Statistical models and deep-learning techniques are trained on images obtained in the early stages of thermal shock, and defect growth in the later stages is predicted. Our work serves as a preliminary attempt to improve the accuracy of lifetime prediction models of power electronics packages, which is critical under extreme operating environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Heavy boron doping effects on biaxially tensile strained germanium (>1.5%) investigated via structural characterization, effective lifetime assessment and atomistic modeling

Highly tensile strained germanium (ε-Ge) represents an essential material system for emerging electronic and photonics applications. Moreover, adjusting the doping levels to moderate or high concentrations can effectively tailor the properties of ε-Ge for specific applications. This article combines experimental characterization with a theoretical framework to examine the effects of heavy elemental boron (B) doping on pseudomorphic sub-50 nm ε-Ge. High resolution X-ray diffractometry is used to validate tensile strain levels of 1.53% and 1.68% in Ge epilayers, surpassing the indirect-to-direct band gap crossover point at ∼1.5% biaxial tensile strain. Cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy revealed visual evidence of stacking faults and surface roughening in 1.68% ε-Ge, although a coherent and abrupt Ge/III–V heterointerface is observed, devoid of interfacial misfit dislocations. Effective lifetime measurements demonstrated approximately twofold enhancement in 1.53% B-doped ε-Ge (N B ∼7 × 10 19 cm −3 ) compared to its unstrained B-doped counterpart, while no such improvement was observed in 1.68% B-doped ε-Ge. This lack of enhancement is attributed to the presence of stacking faults and surface roughness within the ε-Ge epilayer. Through density functional theory calculations, we independently demonstrate that substitutional B atoms induce local deformation of Ge–Ge bonds in both unstrained Ge and ε-Ge epilayers, resulting in an additive tensile strain. This phenomenon could potentially lead to dynamic reduction and overcoming of the critical layer thickness for the system, facilitating the nucleation and subsequent glide of 90° leading Shockley partial dislocations, thereby generating stacking faults. In essence, these findings establish an upper limit on the B-doping concentration that can be achieved in highly ε-Ge epilayers, and collectively, offer valuable insights into the significance of heavy doping in Ge-based heterostructures. As such, this study delineates a fundamental constraint for integrating heavily doped ε-Ge in high-performance optoelectronic systems, necessitating precise strain-doping co-optimization to avoid performance degradation.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1979

A model for predicting the wearout lifetime of the LeRC/Hughes 30-cm mercury ion thruster

An investigation of parameters that affect the erosion rates of 30-cm-diameter mercury-ion-thruster components is described. A sputter-erosion model is formulated in terms of the design, operational, and material characteristics of the thruster. The erosion model is applied to the screen electrode, which is assumed to be the life-limiting component of the 30-cm thruster, resulting in a model of wearout lifetime. Results of short-term erosion-rate tests are presented that illustrate the dependence of component wear rates on variables such as discharge voltage, accelerator-grid open-area fraction, ion energy, electrode material, and the partial pressure of facility residual gases such as nitrogen. Test results are compared with wearout rates predicted by the sputter-erosion model.

Beattie, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Collider searches for scalar singlets across lifetimes

Spin-0 singlets arise in well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model. Their lifetime determines the best search strategies at hadron and lepton colliders. To cover a large range of singlet decay lengths, we investigate bounds from Higgs decays into a pair of singlets, considering signatures of invisible decays, displaced and delayed jets, and coupling fits of untagged decays. We examine the generic scalar singlet and the relaxion, and derive a matching as well as qualitative differences between them. For each model, we discuss its natural parameter space and the searches probing it.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Satellite-based evaluation of AeroCom model bias in biomass burning regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by –93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-Based Evaluation of AeroCom Model Bias in Biomass Burning Regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

biomass burning aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2026

Battery Life Prediction Using Reduced-Order Physics Models and Machine Learning (CRADA Final Report)

Phase 1 (Original CRADA, plus no-cost extension modifications #1-3, 6/1/2017 to 3/13/2021): The Australian Department of Defence (AUDoD) is performing accelerated aging tests of Li-ion batteries to benchmark their reliability and degradation characteristics. Using its previously developed battery lifetime predictive model framework, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) will develop analytical models based the AUDoD data to predict lifetime of the multiple Li-ion battery chemistries under real-world use scenarios of interest to AUDoD. The NLR model is based on physical degradation mechanisms encountered by Li-ion batteries and has been previously validated. Phase 2 (CRADA modification #4, plus no-cost extension modification #5, 2/22/2021 to 3/30/2025): Train and support Australian Department of Defence personnel to use NLR software for model-based estimation of Li-ion battery lifetime using accelerated battery aging data collected by the Australian Department of Defence. Under separate DOE funding from 2019 to 2021, NLR enhanced its battery life-prediction software using machine learning algorithms to automate portions of the model-fitting process, requiring significantly less labor and expert judgment and also adding uncertainty quantification, increasing statistical rigor. Under Phase 2, NLR will customize NLR Software and provide it to AuDoD. NLR will enhance its NLR Model to capture aging modes of AuDoD's multi-cell modules, including cell-balancing effects. NLR will develop example single-cell and multi-cell models based on one AuDoD battery aging dataset. NLR will train AuDoD personnel on NLR Software. By the conclusion of the project, NLR will have provided AuDoD the training materials, a user manual and software needed to perform their own analysis of additional and/or future battery aging datasets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties - 2010

Uncertainties in estimating health risks from galactic cosmic rays greatly limit space mission lengths and potential risk mitigation evaluations. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death and protects against uncertainties using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. Revisions to this model for lifetime cancer risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described here. We review models of space environments and transport code predictions of organ exposures, and characterize uncertainties in these descriptions. We summarize recent analysis of low linear energy transfer radio-epidemiology data, including revision to Japanese A-bomb survivor dosimetry, longer follow-up of exposed cohorts, and reassessments of dose and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors. We compare these projections and uncertainties with earlier estimates. Current understanding of radiation quality effects and recent data on factors of relative biological effectiveness and particle track structure are reviewed. Recent radiobiology experiment results provide new information on solid cancer and leukemia risks from heavy ions. We also consider deviations from the paradigm of linearity at low doses of heavy ions motivated by non-targeted effects models. New findings and knowledge are used to revise the NASA risk projection model for space radiation cancer risks.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

The emergence of wide-bandgap (WBG) devices in power electronics packages has brought significant attention to the reliability and thermal performance of the bonded interfaces. These interfaces, such as die-attach and substrate-attach, need to withstand the severe stress induced on them by the high-temperature (> 200°C) operation of the WBG devices. Sintered silver and transient liquid phase alloys are key bonded interfaces that can enable the high-temperature operation of WBG devices, however it is essential to evaluate their reliability and study the possible failure mechanisms before they can be used in power electronics packages. Sintered silver is already being adopted in commercial packages as a die-attach, but large-area substrate-attach offers additional reliability challenges. In this project, we investigate the reliability of these interface materials under accelerated thermal cycling and correlate these results with finite element simulations to develop lifetime prediction models. The failure mechanisms of these bonded interfaces are also studied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

BLAST-Lite (Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool - Lite) [SWR-22-69] Related to: BLAST aka: BLAST-Py

Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Toolsuite (BLAST) provides a library of battery lifetime and degradation models for various commercial lithium-ion batteries from recent years. Degradation models are identified from publicly available lab-based aging data using NREL's battery life model identification toolkit. The battery life models predicted the expected lifetime of batteries used in mobile or stationary applications as functions of their temperature and use (state-of-charge, depth-of-discharge, and charge/discharge rates). Model implementation is in both Python and MATLAB programming languages. The MATLAB code also provides example applications (stationary storage and EV), climate data, and simple thermal management options. For more information on battery health diagnostics, prediction, and optimization, see NREL's Battery Lifespan webpage.

Smith, Kandler↗
NASA NTRS1993

Lifetime prediction of materials exposed to the natural space environment

The goal of this study is to model the lifetime of different types of seal materials based on results obtained from accelerated experiments. A semi-mechanistic approach was taken. Thermal aging data were taken from the literature whereas experiments were conducted at Auburn under this contract for selected environments. The seal materials of interest are Silicone 383, Silicone 650, Viton 835, and Viton 747. The relevant conditions include thermal, oxygen, inert gas, vacuum, and gamma radiation. Compression set data available from NASA were used to examine the thermal effect. Experiments were conducted at Auburn University and at NASA to isolate the role of thermal, oxygen, inert gas, vacuum, gamma irradiation, and proton irradiation. A simple discrete stress relaxation method was developed to determine the relaxation response of the elastomers. Dynamic mechanical thermal analysis was also used to characterize the mechanical response of the specimens. These provide a more meaningful correlation between mechanisms and degradation.

Zee, Ralph↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid assessment of the creep rupture life of metals: A model enabling experimental design

Prediction of the creep rupture life of engineering metals is critical for qualification and design of new materials. The use of long-term creep tests and the need to quantify the performance variability in a priori similar systems hinder the rapid creep assessment of a given material. Therefore, it is essential to develop methods that can extrapolate the long-term performance of alloys and the associated variability from short-term experiments. To this end, this study introduces a new model which enables the estimation of the rupture life of a material for a given stress and temperature. This model relies on two components. First, a new relation for the minimum creep rate (MCR) of materials is introduced. It includes a stress dependent stress exponent allowing the model to capture the variation of MCR across a wide range of temperatures and stresses. Second, employing the Monkman-Grant (MG) law, we establish a relation between stress, temperature and creep rupture life. Together, these two elements yield a new closed-form mathematical expression for the Larson Miller parameter as a function of stress and temperature. This expression captures the creep rupture time for many metals (Gr91, Copper, Gr122 and 347H) and compares favorably with alternate empirical approaches. The model is then used to assess the minimum duration of creep rates necessary to qualify the material up to 100000h. Furthermore, it is found that depending on the material system, creep tests as few as five limited to 5000 h for steels (Gr91, Gr122, 347H) and 100 h for copper are sufficient to model creep lifetimes. Finally, using a Bayesian inference-based approach to calibrate the model, we demonstrate that variability in rupture life can be captured via the quantification of the uncertainty in the model parameters and extrapolated from a limited number of short to moderately short creep tests; thereby paving the way for accelerated creep testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1991

Big bang nucleosynthesis - The standard model and alternatives

The standard homogeneous-isotropic calculation of the big bang cosmological model is reviewed, and alternate models are discussed. The standard model is shown to agree with the light element abundances for He-4, H-2, He-3, and Li-7 that are available. Improved observational data from recent LEP collider and SLC results are discussed. The data agree with the standard model in terms of the number of neutrinos, and provide improved information regarding neutron lifetimes. Alternate models are reviewed which describe different scenarios for decaying matter or quark-hadron induced inhomogeneities. The baryonic density relative to the critical density in the alternate models is similar to that of the standard model when they are made to fit the abundances. This reinforces the conclusion that the baryonic density relative to critical density is about 0.06, and also reinforces the need for both nonbaryonic dark matter and dark baryonic matter.

Schramm, David N.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Whitlock, David↗
NASA NTRS1994

The sensitivity of tropospheric chemistry to cloud interactions

Clouds, although only occupying a relatively small fraction of the troposphere volume, can have a substantial impact on the chemistry of the troposphere. In newly formed clouds, or in clouds with air rapidly flowing through, the chemistry is expected to be far more active than in aged clouds with stagnant air. Thus, frequent cycling of air through shortlived clouds, i.e. cumulus clouds, is likely to be a much more efficient media for altering the composition of the atmosphere than an extensive cloud cover i.e. frontal cloud systems. The impact of clouds is tested out in a 2-D channel model encircling the globe in a latitudinal belt from 30 to 60 deg N. The model contains a detailed gas phase chemistry. In addition physiochemical interactions between the gas and aqueous phases are included. For species as H2O2, CH2O, O3, and SO2, Henry's law equilibria are assumed, whereas HNO3 and H2SO4 are regarded as completed dissolved in the aqueous phase. Absorption of HO2 and OH is assumed to be mass-transport limited. The chemistry of the aqueous phase is characterized by rapid cycling of odd hydrogen, (H2O2, HO2, and OH). O2(-) (produced through dissociation of HO2) reacting with dissolved O3 is a major source of OH in the aqueous phase. This reaction can be a significant sink for O3 in the troposphere. In the interstitial cloud air, odd hydrogen is depleted, whereas NO(x) remains in the gas phase, thus reducing ozone production due to the reaction between NO and HO2. Our calculations give markedly lower ozone levels when cloud interactions are included. This may in part explain the overpredictions of ozone levels often experienced in models neglecting cloud chemical interactions. In the present study, the existence of clouds, cloud types, and their lifetimes are modeled as pseudo random variables. Such pseudo random sequences are in reality deterministic and may, given the same starting values, be reproduced. The effects of cloud interactions on the overall chemistry of the troposphere are discussed. In particular, tests are performed to determine the sensitivity of cloud frequencies and cloud types.

Jonson, Jan E.↗