Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “leverage points”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Low SWaP Onboard Satellite Navigation, Guidance, and Control Technology

Onboard autonomy is a necessity for responsive space operations. Autonomous navigation, guidance, and control (NGC) enables space missions to reduce their dependence on high demand ground assets and costly ground personnel. It also allows for in-situ decision making and higher return on mission data. A flight software and hardware system providing this capability, called “autoNGC,” is currently being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for infusion into multiple future missions. The first build of autoNGC, providing autonomous navigation for lunar orbiting spacecraft, is targeted for completion by Fall 2024. It provides sensor fusion of multiple measurement types including pseudo-range from a weak signal Global Navigation Satellite Service (GNSS) receiver, 1-way and 2-way direct to Earth (DTE) range and Doppler, bearing and range from optical camera sensed images, and an accelerometer. AutoNGC is also being targeted for future missions that involve small body proximity operations, Sun Earth Libration point orbits, and distributed systems missions (DSMs) including those at outer planets. AutoNGC flight software is being built upon the plug-and-play architecture of the core Flight System (cFS) [Ref. 1]. Figure (Slide 7) shows the message-based software bus layout of various software applications (“apps”) consisting of the standard cFS apps and autoNGC interface apps and libraries. Accurate onboard navigation and timing is obtained through the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS) software library [Ref. 2], which fuses different measurement types through an extended Kalman filter (EKF) framework. Optical measurements that are ingested in GEONS are provided by the cFS Goddard Image Analysis and Navigation Tool (cGIANT) app [Ref. 3]. This app processes optical images to extract the bearing angles of the centroid of the imaged body (near or far), the range to the imaged body, and/or of the features on the surface of a body to perform terrain relative navigation (TRN). Measurement of range to the body’s center of mass can also be derived from the detection of the limb. The first build of autoNGC for a lunar orbiting spacecraft is a minimal size, weight, and power (SWaP) hardware design allowing for inclusion into CubeSats and SmallSat-size class buses. Advancements in miniaturized space processors, such as the SpaceCube 3.0 Mini and the SpaceCube Mini-Z [Ref. 4] are utilized for low SWaP while maintaining a high level of performance. Figure (Slide 11) shows the composition of the first autoNGC build. The current enclosure design has dimensions 12 cm x 17 cm x 13.5 cm. The box mass is expected to be less than 2 kg, and the nominal power is 21 W. The hardware interfaces are designed for flexibility with a variety of sensor inputs. The achievable navigation performance depends on the sensors utilized, including the onboard clock for 1-way pseudo-range measurements. Analysis using a configuration that consists of weak signal GPS, TRN, and 1-way DTE has shown position and velocity accuracies of 10 meters and 2 cm/s (3-σ ) RSS, respectively, with onboard time knowledge estimated to better than 13 ns (3-σ ), for a spacecraft in a representative 12-hour eccentric lunar orbit. Other measurement types such as x-rays from known pulsars (called XNAV) and cross-links can also be processed in GEONS. With the plug-and-play architecture of autoNGC, cFS apps can easily be added and replaced, even after launch. Goddard is actively seeking partners to collaborate in the development of additional capabilities for autoNGC, including industry, academia, and others across the US Government. Plans are being formulated to make the autoNGC software platform available for use by any US government organization to leverage the non-recurring engineering associated with the development of onboard autonomous NGC 3 capabilities. As advancements in space qualified sensors, microprocessors, and algorithms are made, the autoNGC platform provides a ready starting point for inclusion of these technologies.

C. J. Gramling↗
NASA NTRS2015

RESOLVE - Regolith and Environment Science and Oxygen and Lunar Volatile Extraction

The Regolith & Environment Science and Oxygen & Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) payload is an exploration system designed to be placed on a rover and driven over the surface of the moon for 9 days to map the distribution of the water ice and other useful compounds seen on previous missions. RESOLVE will drill into the lunar surface and heat the material collected in order to measure the amount of water vapor and other compounds that are present, thus showing how future missions could gather and then use these valuable resources. Future missions will benefit from this analysis tool and others because it will be more cost-effective to mine water components, fuel, and other compounds at the point of destination rather than transport them from Earth. NASA is packaging the RESOLVE payload in the Resource Prospector mission targeted for launch in 2020. NASA continues to explore mission solutions by leveraging partnerships across NASA, industry, other nations and academia.

RESOLVE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Exploration Oxygen Recovery Technology Options Using ESM and LSMAC

In preparation for long duration manned space flight, numerous technology development efforts are ongoing in the area of environmental control and life support (ECLS). In cooperation with international, industry, and academic partners, NASA seeks to leverage the International Space Station as a testbed for technologies targeted for Exploration-class missions. In recent years, Equivalent Systems Mass (ESM) analyses have been conducted to evaluate the relative breakeven points and to compare technologies as part of ECLS architectural trades. While these studies have provided important data pertaining to key engineering metrics, additional considerations are important to more fully understand the potential impacts and costs associated with selecting a specific architecture. A tool, called the Life Support Multi-Dimensional Assessment Criteria (LSMAC), was recently proposed by Sierra Nevada Corporation in an attempt to incorporate influences of these additional considerations including Maintainability, Risk Analysis, Technology Readiness Level, Radiation Impacts, Manufacturing Costs, Reliability, Human Factors, and Un-Crewed Operations. As a first step toward evaluating and implementing this tool, LSMAC was used to revisit the ISS oxygen recovery trade from the 1990’s wherein Sabatier was selected over Bosch technology. Second, the tool was used to compare oxygen recovery developmental technologies currently in work. The results of these studies as well as a comparison with standalone ESM analyses are reported. Further, a discussion of the potential application of the tool across the ECLS portfolio and its potential use in future technology selection for ISS flight demonstrations is provided.

Morgan B Abney↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Automated Refinement Process for Particle Trajectory Methods in GlennICE

Computational methods for ice accretion can simulate the impact of water drops and ice crystals on an aircraft surface in a Lagrangian reference frame or in the Eulerian reference frame. In the Eulerian reference frame, particles are considered a continuous fluid while in the Lagrangian frame individual particle trajectories are calculated. Methods that use the Eulerian reference frame are typically easier to develop as established modules used for continuum mechanics can be leveraged. The Eulerian systems can also be faster since the user does not have to simulate millions of particles in order to achieve good results. It is imperative therefore that a Lagrangian method optimize the release points of trajectories such that accurate solutions can be obtained while minimizing as much as possible the number of trajectories computed. This paper will present a methodology for this refinement process and demonstrate its effectiveness on sample three dimensional test cases.

William B Wright↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Automated Refinement Process for Particle Trajectory Methods in GlennICE

Computational methods for ice accretion can simulate the impact of water drops and ice crystals on an aircraft surface in a Lagrangian reference frame or in the Eulerian reference frame. In the Eulerian reference frame, particles are considered a continuous fluid while in the Lagrangian frame individual particle trajectories are calculated. Methods that use the Eulerian reference frame are typically easier to develop as established modules used for continuum mechanics can be leveraged. The Eulerian systems can also be faster since the user does not have to simulate millions of particles in order to achieve good results. It is imperative therefore that a Lagrangian method optimize the release points of trajectories such that accurate solutions can be obtained while minimizing as much as possible the number of trajectories computed. This paper will present a methodology for this refinement process and demonstrate its effectiveness on sample three dimensional test cases.

William Wright↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison between Hayabusa 2 Spectral Measurements and Simulations

This paper compares recent Hayabusa 2 spectral measurements with state-of-the-art shock-layer radiation simulations resulting from the LAURA/HARA code suite. These simulations include coupled ablation, which accounts for the injection of ablation products into the flowfield, and coupled radiation, which accounts for radiative energy loss in the flowfield. To enable the coupled ablation simulations, a best-estimate model is developed for Hayabusa’s carbon-phenolic ablator, based on the limited available published information. The comparison between the simulations and measurements focuses on two atomic nitrogen lines and two atomic oxygen lines, as well as the CN Violet band system. For the atomic lines, the measurements and simulations agree within 25% over most of the trajectory. This excellent agreement is unprecedented for observed radiation measurements of atomic lines, where previous Stardust and Hayabusa 1 comparisons were significantly worse. The improved agreement for these Hayabusa 2 comparisons is both the result of improved measurement quality and enhanced flowfield/radiation modeling. To provide a link between these observed radiation measurements and the radiative heating to a vehicle surface, the recently developed flowfield property binning approach is used to identify flowfield properties that provide the dominant emission contribution to the measured spectrum. These identified flowfield properties are then shown to match those for the surface radiative heating to the currently developed Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) at a specific trajectory point and surface location. This matching of flowfield properties indicates that this EES radiative heating and Hayabusa 2 observed radiation simulations are equivalent radiation problems. Therefore, the excellent agreement between Hayabusa 2 measurements and simulations may be leveraged to inform the radiation heating margin for the MSR EES.

Christopher O Johnston↗
NASA NTRS2014

Enhancement of Mutual Discovery, Search, and Access of Data for Users of NASA and GEOSS-Cataloged Data Systems

An ongoing NASA-funded Data Rods (time series) project has demonstrated the removal of a longstanding barrier to accessing NASA data (i.e., accessing archived time-step array data as point-time series) for selected variables of the North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS and GLDAS, respectively) and other NASA data sets. Data rods are pre-generated or generated on-the-fly (OTF), leveraging the NASA Simple Subset Wizard (SSW), a gateway to NASA data centers. Data rods Web services are accessible through the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System (HIS) and the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) but are not easily discoverable by users of other non-NASA data systems. An ongoing GEOSS Water Services project aims to develop a distributed, global registry of water data, map, and modeling services cataloged using the standards and procedures of the Open Geospatial Consortium and the World Meteorological Organization. Preliminary work has shown GEOSS can be leveraged to help provide access to data rods. A new NASA-funded project is extending this early work.

data access↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of Hybrid Propulsion Transportation System for Human Mars Expeditions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration continues to develop and refine various transportation options to successfully field a human Mars campaign. One of these transportation options is the Hybrid Transportation System which utilizes both solar electric propulsion and chemical propulsion. The Hybrid propulsion system utilizes chemical propulsion to perform high thrust maneuvers, where the delta-V is most optimal when ap- plied to save time and to leverage the Oberth effect. It then utilizes solar electric propulsion to augment the chemical burns throughout the interplanetary trajectory. This eliminates the need for the development of two separate vehicles for crew and cargo missions. Previous studies considered single point designs of the architecture, with fixed payload mass and propulsion system performance parameters. As the architecture matures, it is inevitable that the payload mass and the performance of the propulsion system will change. It is desirable to understand how these changes will impact the in-space transportation system's mass and power requirements. This study presents an in-depth sensitivity analysis of the Hybrid crew transportation system to payload mass growth and solar electric propulsion performance. This analysis is used to identify the breakpoints of the current architecture and to inform future architecture and campaign design decisions.

Chai, Patrick R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Conceptual Design and Analysis of a Deep Space Habitat with a Venus Flyby

Within the mission trade space for crewed Mars missions, opposition missions are considered as fast transit options to minimize the crewed duration in the deep space radiation environment. However, they tend to have much higher in energy requirements than conjunction class missions, and Venus flybys are often leveraged to lower the total V as much as possible. While the conceptual design of deep space habitats is already a complex problem, the Venus flyby introduces a new environment of operation that adds layers of difficulty. A design point is presented that is capable of performing the crewed Mars mission and ensure the crew is safe flying in proximity to Venus and the Sun. Detailed thermal analysis of the design point is done to show the sensitivity of the thermal control systems to changes in mission parameters.

Akshay Prasad↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Launch Systems Operations Cost Model

One of NASA's primary missions is to reduce the cost of access to space while simultaneously increasing safety. A key component, and one of the least understood, is the recurring operations and support cost for reusable launch systems. In order to predict these costs, NASA, under the leadership of the Independent Program Assessment Office (IPAO), has commissioned the development of a Launch Systems Operations Cost Model (LSOCM). LSOCM is a tool to predict the operations & support (O&S) cost of new and modified reusable (and partially reusable) launch systems. The requirements are to predict the non-recurring cost for the ground infrastructure and the recurring cost of maintaining that infrastructure, performing vehicle logistics, and performing the O&S actions to return the vehicle to flight. In addition, the model must estimate the time required to cycle the vehicle through all of the ground processing activities. The current version of LSOCM is an amalgamation of existing tools, leveraging our understanding of shuttle operations cost with a means of predicting how the maintenance burden will change as the vehicle becomes more aircraft like. The use of the Conceptual Operations Manpower Estimating Tool/Operations Cost Model (COMET/OCM) provides a solid point of departure based on shuttle and expendable launch vehicle (ELV) experience. The incorporation of the Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) as expressed by a set of response surface model equations gives a method for estimating how changing launch system characteristics affects cost and cycle time as compared to today's shuttle system. Plans are being made to improve the model. The development team will be spending the next few months devising a structured methodology that will enable verified and validated algorithms to give accurate cost estimates. To assist in this endeavor the LSOCM team is part of an Agency wide effort to combine resources with other cost and operations professionals to support models, databases, and operations assessments.

Prince, Frank A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

ISS Local Environment Spectrometers (ISLES)

In order to study the complex interactions between the space environment surrounding the ISS and the ISS surface materials, we propose to use lowcost, high-TRL plasma sensors on the ISS robotic arm to probe the ISS space environment. During many years of ISS operation, we have been able to condut effective (but not perfect) extravehicular activities (both human and robotic) within the perturbed local ISS space environment. Because of the complexity of the interaction between the ISS and the LEO space environment, there remain important questions, such as differential charging at solar panel junctions (the so-called "triple point" between conductor, dielectric, and space plasma), increased chemical contamination due to ISS surface charging and/or thruster activation, water dumps, etc, and "bootstrap" charging of insulating surfaces. Some compelling questions could synergistically draw upon a common sensor suite, which also leverages previous and current MSFC investments. Specific questions address ISS surface charging, plasma contactor plume expansion in a magnetized drifting plasma, and possible localized contamination effects across the ISS.

Krause, Linda Habash↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Origins Space Telescope

The Origins Space Telescope will trace the history of our origins from the time dust and heavy elements permanently altered the cosmic landscape to present-day life. How did galaxies evolve from the earliest galactic systems to those found in the universe today? How do habitable planets form? How common are life-bearing worlds? To answer these alluring questions, Origins will operate at mid- and far-infrared wavelengths and offer powerful spectroscopic instruments and sensitivity three orders of magnitude better than that of Herschel, the largest telescope flown in space to date. After a 3 ½ year study, the Origins Science and Technology Definition Team will recommend to the Decadal Survey a concept for Origins with a 5.9-m diameter telescope cryo cooled to 4.5 K and equipped with three scientific instruments. A mid-infrared instrument (MISC-T) will measure the spectra of transiting exoplanets in the 2.8 – 20 μm wavelength range and offer unprecedented sensitivity, enabling definitive biosignature detections. The Far-IR Imager Polarimeter (FIP) will be able to survey thousands of square degrees with broadband imaging at 50 and 250 μm. The Origins Survey Spectrometer (OSS) will cover wavelengths from 25 – 588 μm, make wide-area and deep spectroscopic surveys with spectral resolving power R ~ 300, and pointed observations at R ~ 40,000 and 300,000 with selectable instrument modes. Origins was designed to minimize complexity. The telescope has a Spitzer-like architecture and requires very few deployments after launch. The cryo-thermal system design leverages JWST technology and experience. A combination of current-state-of-the-art cryocoolers and next-generation detector technology will enable Origins’ natural background limited sensitivity.

Leisawitz, D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Line-Of-Sight Jitter Mitigation and Management Lessons Learned and Engineering Best Practices

Predicting, managing, controlling, and testing spacecraft line-of-sight (LoS) jitter caused by micro-vibrations due to onboard internal disturbance sources is a formidable multidisciplinary engineering task. It is especially challenging for those missions hosting high-performance, vibration-sensitive optical sensor payloads with stringent pointing stability requirements. Both NASA and ESA are planning technically aggressive spaceflight missions that include ultra-high-performance optical payloads with delicate, highly vibration-sensitive scientific and observational instruments. The GN&C community of practice will need to leverage and build upon their collective experiences and lessons learned to better address future micro-vibration challenges. To identify lessons learned and best engineering practices the NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) sponsored a two-day Spacecraft LoS Jitter Workshop in late 2019. The workshop’s goal was to provide a multidisciplinary forum to elicit deeper understanding of the issues related to solving the spacecraft LoS jitter/micro-vibration problem. A primary objective was to identify and share best practices, rules of thumb, and options for jitter-related activities. Representatives from NASA, JPL, ESA, along with NASA’s industrial partners, independent consultant subject matter experts, and members of academia participated in the workshop. This paper will describe the motivation for the NASA Spacecraft LoS Jitter Workshop and summarize the identified findings, observations, and recommendations.

Lessons Learned;↗
NASA NTRS2021

On-demand Command and Control of ASTERIA with Cloud-based Ground Station Services

ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics) was a 6-unit CubeSat technology demonstration mission that deployed from the International Space Station on November 20th, 2017. After successfully completing its 90-day primary mission that demonstrated arcsecond-level line-of-sight pointing and focal plane thermal stability for exoplanet detection, it entered an extended mission performing onboard software demonstrations to mature technology both in space and on the ground. One of the technologies was a completely cloud-based ground system leveraging Amazon Web Services (AWS) Ground Station service.Announced in December 2018 and launched in May 2019, AWS Ground Station is a fully managed ground station service that aims to reduce the overhead associated with developing and maintaining ground system infrastructure throughout the mission lifecycle. AWS Ground Station makes available the suite of features required for any ground system in support of low-Earth orbit (LEO) and medium-Earth Orbit (MEO) satellite operations on-demand and without setting up or maintaining long-term contracts. Charges are incurred on a per-minute basis for antenna usage during scheduled tracks. Support is available for S-band uplink and downlink, along with X-band narrowband and wideband downlink. Missions that use the service may reserve tracks with any licensed AWS Ground Station antennas located across each service region and have direct access to any AWS services in support of mission operations.The cloud-based architecture built around the AWS Ground Station service greatly enhanced ASTERIA mission operations by enabling end-to-end pass automation, on-demand contact scheduling and contingency planning, along with more efficient data downlink through station availability and station-to-station handovers. It incorporated open-source software, particularly NASA's AMMOS Instrument Toolkit (AIT) and Open Mission Control Technologies (OpenMCT), along with the AWS application programming interfaces (API) to the Ground Station, Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) and Simple Storage Service (S3) services. After showcasing operability in August 2019, the team continued using and improving this novel ground system architecture until the end of mission in December 2019. This paper describes the cloud-based ground system, how it was designed, tested, and evaluated with an in-orbit spacecraft, the operational capabilities that it enabled, along with lessons learned and recommendations for future missions.

Fesq, Lorraine↗
NASA NTRS2021

On-demand Command and Control of ASTERIA with Cloud-based Ground Station Services

ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics) was a 6-unit CubeSat technology demonstration mission that deployed from the International Space Station on November 20th, 2017. After successfully completing its 90-day primary mission that demonstrated arcsecond-level line-of-sight pointing and focal plane thermal stability for exoplanet detection, it entered an extended mission performing onboard software demonstrations to mature technology both in space and on the ground. One of the technologies was a completely cloud-based ground system leveraging Amazon Web Services (AWS) Ground Station service. Announced in December 2018 and launched in May 2019, AWS Ground Station is a fully managed ground station service that aims to reduce the overhead associated with developing and maintaining ground system infrastructure throughout the mission lifecycle. AWS Ground Station makes available the suite of features required for any ground system in support of low-Earth orbit (LEO) and medium-Earth Orbit (MEO) satellite operations on-demand and without setting up or maintaining long-term contracts. Charges are incurred on a per-minute basis for antenna usage during scheduled tracks. Support is available for S-band uplink and downlink, along with X-band narrowband and wideband downlink. Missions that use the service may reserve tracks with any licensed AWS Ground Station antennas located across each service region and have direct access to any AWS services in support of mission operations. The cloud-based architecture built around the AWS Ground Station service greatly enhanced ASTERIA mission operations by enabling end-to-end pass automation, on-demand contact scheduling and contingency planning, along with more efficient data downlink through station availability and station-tostation handovers. It incorporated open-source software, particularly NASA's AMMOS Instrument Toolkit (AIT) and Open Mission Control Technologies (OpenMCT), along with the AWS application programming interfaces (API) to the Ground Station, Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) and Simple Storage Service (S3) services. After showcasing operability in August 2019, the team continued using and improving this novel ground system architecture until the end of mission in December 2019. This paper describes the cloud-based ground system, how it was designed, tested, and evaluated with an inorbit spacecraft, the operational capabilities that it enabled, along with lessons learned and recommendations for future missions.

Fesq, Lorraine↗
NASA NTRS1999

Control Design Strategies to Enhance Long-Term Aircraft Structural Integrity

Over the operational lifetime of both military and civil aircraft, structural components are exposed to hundreds of thousands of low-stress repetitive load cycles and less frequent but higher-stress transient loads originating from maneuvering flight and atmospheric gusts. Micro-material imperfections in the structure, such as cracks and debonded laminates, expand and grow in this environment, reducing the structural integrity and shortening the life of the airframe. Extreme costs associated with refurbishment of critical load-bearing structural components in a large fleet, or altogether reinventoring the fleet with newer models, indicate alternative solutions for life extension of the airframe structure are highly desirable. Increased levels of operational safety and reliability are also important factors influencing the desirability of such solutions. One area having significant potential for impacting crack growth/fatigue damage reduction and structural life extension is flight control. To modify the airframe response dynamics arising from command inputs and gust disturbances, feedback loops are routinely applied to vehicles. A dexterous flight control system architecture senses key vehicle motions and generates critical forces/moments at multiple points distributed throughout the airframe to elicit the desired motion characteristics. In principle, these same control loops can be utilized to influence the level of exposure to harmful loads during flight on structural components. Project objectives are to investigate and/or assess the leverage control has on reducing fatigue damage and enhancing long-term structural integrity, without degrading attitude control and trajectory guidance performance levels. In particular, efforts have focused on the effects inner loop control parameters and architectures have on fatigue damage rate. To complete this research, an actively controlled flexible aircraft model and a new state space modeling procedure for crack growth have been utilized. Analysis of the analytical state space model for crack growth revealed the critical mathematical factors, and hence the physical mechanism they represent, that influenced high rates of airframe crack growth. The crack model was then exercised with simple load inputs to uncover and expose key crack growth behavior. To characterize crack growth behavior, both "short-term" laboratory specimen test type inputs and "long-term" operational flight type inputs were considered. Harmonic loading with a single overload revealed typical exponential crack growth behavior until the overload application, after which time the crack growth was retarded for a period of time depending on the overload strength. An optimum overload strength was identified which leads to maximum retardation of crack growth. Harmonic loading with a repeated overload of varying strength and frequency again revealed an optimum overload trait for maximizing growth retardation. The optimum overload strength ratio lies near the range of 2 to 3 with dependency on frequency. Experimental data was found to correlate well with the analytical predictions.

Newman, Brett A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden–Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users’ expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress.

Annarita Mariotti↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Origins Space Telescope: Baseline Mission Concept

The Origins Space Telescope will trace the history of our origins from the time dust and heavy elements permanently altered the cosmic landscape to present-day life. How did galaxies evolve from the earliest galactic systems to those found in the Universe today? How do habitable planets form? How common are life-bearing worlds? To answer these alluring questions, Origins will operate atmid- and far-infrared (IR) wavelengths and offer powerful spectroscopic instruments and sensitivity three orders of magnitude better than that of the Herschel Space Observatory, the largest telescope flown in space to date. We describe the baseline concept for Origins recommended to the 2020 US Decadal Survey in Astronomy and Astrophysics. The baseline design includes a 5.9-m diameter telescope cryocooled to 4.5 K and equipped with three scientific instruments. A mid-infrared instrument (Mid-Infrared Spectrometer and Camera Transit spectrometer) will measure the spectra of transiting exoplanets in the 2.8 to 20 μm wavelength range and offer unprecedented spectrophotometric precision, enabling definitive exoplanet biosignature detections. The far-IR imager polarimeter will be able to survey thousands of square degrees with broadband imaging at 50 and 250 μm. The Origins Survey Spectrometer will cover wavelengths from 25 to 588 μm, making wide-area and deep spectroscopic surveys with spectral resolving power R ∼ 300, and pointed observations at R ∼ 40;000 and 300,000 with selectable instrument modes. Origins was designed to minimize complexity. The architecture is similar to that of the Spitzer Space Telescope and requires very few deployments after launch, while the cryothermal system design leverages James Webb Space Telescope technology and experience. A combination of current-state-of-the-art cryocoolers and next-generation detector technology will enable Origins’ natural background-limited sensitivity.

David Leisawitz↗