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At least 91 records · Page 5

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗

Automated Probabilistic Finite Element Model Calibration Tool Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning

Qualification and certification of safety critical parts is a hurdle to the adoption of metallic additively manufactured components for aerospace vehicle applications. Challenges include variability in part properties due to inconsistent defect distribution and microstructure. Understanding of the process through finite element modeling (FEM), and process control through in-situ monitoring, may result in significant improvements; however, solutions useful to manufacturers will require large volumes of data and automated data utilization. Toward this end, a generalizable automated FEM calibration paradigm is developed. This paradigm leverages existing and novel tools from machine learning and uncertainty quantification to enable the automatic calibration of FEMs without requiring prior knowledge of the model performance across input parameter space, including meshing and solver settings, which can require time consuming manual model probing or cause noisy and inconsistent predictions. The result is a probabilistic distribution of calibrated and validated FEM input parameters targeting measured data.

Additive manufacturing model calibration finite el↗

Effects of noise frequency on performance and annoyance for women and men

Effects of noise frequencies on both performance on a complex psychomotor task and annoyance were investigated for men (n = 30) and women (n = 30). Each subject performed a complex psychomotor task for 50 min in the presence of low-frequency noise, high-frequency noise, or ambient noise. Women and men learned the task at different rates. Little effect of noise was shown. Annoyance ratings were subsequently obtained from each subject for noises of various frequencies by the method of magnitude estimation. High-frequency noises were more annoying than low-frequency noises regardless of sex and immediate prior exposure to noise. Sex differences in annoyance did not occur. No direct relationship between learning to perform a complex task while exposed to noise and annoyance by that noise was demonstrated.

Key, K. F.↗

SatNet: A Benchmark for Satellite Scheduling Optimization

Satellites provide essential services such as networking and weather tracking, and the number of near-earth and deep space satellites are expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Communications with terrestrial ground stations is one of the critical functionalities of any space mission. Satellite scheduling is a problem that has been scientifically investigated since the 1970s. A central aspect of this problem is the need to consider resource contention and satellite visibility constraints as they require line of sight. Due to the combinatorial nature of the problem, prior solutions such as linear programs and evolutionary algorithms require extensive compute capabilities to output a feasible schedule for each scenario. Machine learning based scheduling can provide an alternative solution by training a model with historical data and generating a schedule quickly with model inference. We present SatNet, a benchmark for satellite scheduling optimization based on historical data from the NASA Deep Space Network. We propose formulation of the satellite scheduling problem as a Markov Decision Process and use reinforcement learning (RL) policies to generate schedules. The nature of constraints imposed by SatNet differ from other combinatorial optimization problems such as vehicle routing studied in prior literature. Our initial results indicate that RL is an alternative optimization approach that can generate candidate solutions of comparable quality to existing state-of-the-practice results. However, we also find that RL policies overfit to the training dataset and do not generalize well to new data, thereby necessitating continued research on reusable and generalizable agents.

Wilson, Brian↗

Putting Priors in Mixture Density Mercer Kernels

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly infinite dimensional feature space. We describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using predefined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can en- code prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains template for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic- algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code. The results show that the Mixture Density Mercer-Kernel described here outperforms tree-based classification in distinguishing high-redshift galaxies from low- redshift galaxies by approximately 16% on test data, bagged trees by approximately 7%, and bagged trees built on a much larger sample of data by approximately 2%.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗

A production peripheral vision display system

A small number of peripheral vision display systems in three significantly different configurations were evaluated in various aircraft and simulator situations. The use of these development systems enabled the gathering of much subjective and quantitative data regarding this concept of flight deck instrumentation. However, much was also learned about the limitations of this equipment which needs to be addressed prior to wide spread use. A program at Garrett Manufacturing Limited in which the peripheral vision display system is redesigned and transformed into a viable production avionics system is discussed. Modular design, interchangeable units, optical attenuators, and system fault detection are considered with respect to peripheral vision display systems.

Heinmiller, B.↗

A Communication Channel Density Estimating Generative Adversarial Network

Autoencoder-based communication systems use neural network channel models to backwardly propagate message reconstruction error gradients across an approximation of the physical communication channel. In this work, we develop and test a new generative adversarial network (GAN) architecture for the purpose of training a stochastic channel approximating neural network. In previous research, investigators have focused on additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channels and/or simplified Rayleigh fading channels, both of which are linear and have well defined analytic solutions. Given that training a neural network is computationally expensive, channel approximation networks— and more generally the autoencoder systems—should be evaluated in communication environments that are traditionally difficult. To that end, our investigation focuses on channels that contain a combination of non-linear amplifier distortion, pulse shape filtering, intersymbol interference, frequency-dependent group delay, multipath, and non-Gaussian statistics. Each of our models are trained without any prior knowledge of the channel. We show that the trained models have learned to generalize over an arbitrary amplifier drive level and constellation alphabet. We demonstrate the versatility of our GAN architecture by comparing the marginal probability density function of several channel simulations with that of their corresponding neural network approximations

Smith, Aaron↗

An Ensemble Approach to Building Mercer Kernels with Prior Information

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly dimensional feature space. we describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using pre-defined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can encode prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of the algorithm in situations with extremely small samples of data. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and demonstrate the method's superior performance against standard methods. The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains templates for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic-algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗

Partnering with Industry: Lessons Learned from the Wide Field Instrument on the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope Mission

Through most of the project formulation prior to Phase A, the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) project was developed as a Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in house mission with one secondary instrument developed by JPL and an existing telescope donated from elsewhere in the federal government and managed by the original industry vendor. GSFC was responsible for the spacecraft bus, the instrument supporting structure and the Wide Field Instrument (WFI), which provides the primary science for the mission. Shortly before the beginning of Phase A, NASA codified its acquisition strategy for WFIRST to explore a more substantial role for industry in the mission. The project decided to have a large portion of the WFI be co-developed by industry. This paper describes lessons learned and recommendations for bringing potential industry partners into a project at later stages of conceptual design and presents viewpoints from both the vendor and customer on the experience with WFIRST.

Peabody,Hume L.↗

Smart Congestion Control for Delay- and Disruption Tolerant Networks

In this paper, we propose a novel congestion control framework for delay- and disruption tolerant networks (DTNs). The proposed framework, called Smart-DTN-CC, adjusts its operation automatically as a function of the dynamics of the underlying network. It employs reinforcement learning, a machine learning technique known to be well suited to problems in which the environment, in this case the network, plays a crucial role; yet, no prior knowledge about the target environment can be assumed, i.e., the only way to acquire information about the environment is to interact with it through continuous online learning. Smart-DTN-CC nodes get input from the environment (e.g., its buffer occupancy, set of neighbors, etc), and, based on that information, choose an action to take from a set of possible actions. Depending on an action’s effectiveness in controlling congestion, it will be given a reward. Smart-DTN-CC’s goal is to maximize the overall reward which translates to minimizing congestion. To our knowledge, Smart-DTN-CC is the first DTN congestion control framework that has the ability to automatically and continuously adapt to the dynamics of the target environment which allows Smart-DTNCC to deliver adequate performance in a variety of DTN applications and scenarios. As demonstrated by our experimental evaluation, Smart-DTN-CC is able to consistently outperform existing DTN congestion control mechanisms under a wide range of network conditions and characteristics.

Hirata, Celso M.↗

Ares I-X Thermal Model Correlation and Lessons Learned

The Ares I-X vehicle launched and flew successfully on October 28, 2009. This paper will describe the correlation of the vehicle thermal model to both ground testing and flight data. A main purpose of the vehicle model and ground testing was to ensure that the avionics within the vehicle were held within their thermal limits prior to launch and during flight. The correlation of the avionics box temperatures will be shown. Also, the lessons learned in the thermal discipline during the modeling, test, correlation to test, and flight of the Ares I-X flight test vehicle will be described. Lessons learned will cover thermal modeling, as well as management of the thermal discipline, thermal team, and thermal-related actions in design, testing, and flight.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗

Thermal Testing and Integration: Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) Observatories with Digital 1-Wire Sensors

Thermocouples require two thin wires to be routed out of the spacecraft to connect to the ground support equipment used to monitor and record the temperature data. This large number of wires that exit the observatory complicates integration and creates an undesirable heat path during testing. These wires exiting the spacecraft need to be characterized as a thermal short that will not exist during flight. To minimize complexity and reduce thermal variables from these ground support equipment (GSE) wires, MMS pursued a hybrid path for temperature monitoring, utilizing thermocouples and digital 1-wire temperature sensors. Digital 1-wire sensors can greatly reduce harness mass, length and complexity as they can be spliced together. For MMS, 350 digital 1-wire sensors were installed on the spacecraft with only 18 wires exiting as opposed to a potential 700 thermocouple wires. Digital 1-wire sensors had not been used in such a large scale at NASAGSFC prior to the MMS mission. During the MMS thermal vacuum testing a lessons learned matrix was formulated that will assist future integration of 1-wires into thermal testing and one day into flight.

Sensors↗

Analysis of a Decision-Directed Receiver with Unknown Priors

A decision-directed receiver (DDR) uses previous outputs (decisions) to estimate unknown parameters and, on the basis of these estimates, modifies the detector structure for subsequent decisions. Although the DDR is less complex to instrument than other adaptive schemes, inherent in the decision-directed approach is the possibility of a runaway. This occurs when the detector commits a sequence of decision errors resulting in a degradation of parameter estimates, which, in turn, results in a further deterioration of detector performance. Because of the dependencies introduced by the learning process, runaway is difficult to analyze. In this paper, a DDR with unknown a priori probabilities is considered. The priors are estimated by the relative frequency of decisions of that event. For binary detection, it is shown that there is a positive probability of a runaway (the estimates converge to 1 or 0), which equals 1 if the signal-to-noise ratio is below a critical value. A tight bound on the probability of a runaway is obtained by approximating the learning process by a random walk with independent increments. The analysis demonstrates that a runaway is quite improbable even for moderate signal-to-noise ratios. The analysis is extended to multiple signals and to the situation where the estimates of the priors are updated continuously through exponential weighting rather than allowed to converge.

Davisson, Lee D.↗

Fuzzy Adaptive Control for Intelligent Autonomous Space Exploration Problems

The principal objective of the research reported here is the re-design, analysis and optimization of our newly developed neural network fuzzy adaptive controller model for complex processes capable of learning fuzzy control rules using process data and improving its control through on-line adaption. The learned improvement is according to a performance objective function that provides evaluative feedback; this performance objective is broadly defined to meet long-range goals over time. Although fuzzy control had proven effective for complex, nonlinear, imprecisely-defined processes for which standard models and controls are either inefficient, impractical or cannot be derived, the state of the art prior to our work showed that procedures for deriving fuzzy control, however, were mostly ad hoc heuristics. The learning ability of neural networks was exploited to systematically derive fuzzy control and permit on-line adaption and in the process optimize control. The operation of neural networks integrates very naturally with fuzzy logic. The neural networks which were designed and tested using simulation software and simulated data, followed by realistic industrial data were reconfigured for application on several platforms as well as for the employment of improved algorithms. The statistical procedures of the learning process were investigated and evaluated with standard statistical procedures (such as ANOVA, graphical analysis of residuals, etc.). The computational advantage of dynamic programming-like methods of optimal control was used to permit on-line fuzzy adaptive control. Tests for the consistency, completeness and interaction of the control rules were applied. Comparisons to other methods and controllers were made so as to identify the major advantages of the resulting controller model. Several specific modifications and extensions were made to the original controller. Additional modifications and explorations have been proposed for further study. Some of these are in progress in our laboratory while others await additional support. All of these enhancements will improve the attractiveness of the controller as an effective tool for the on line control of an array of complex process environments.

Esogbue, Augustine O.↗

The Soil Moisture Acttive Passive Mission: Fault Protection Performance and Lessons Learned

Fault protection as a discipline involves a collection of flight software logic and operational processes for detecting unacceptable anomalous behavior, responding prior to reaching criticality, restricting the propagation of a failure beyond a fault containment region, and recovering the vehicle back to full or degraded functionality if possible. The System Fault Protection (SFP) design for the SMAP Earth orbiter was put to the test during its 90-day vehicle commissioning activities. During this time, the SFP software autonomously protected the vehicle from multiple faults to critical hardware, and the operations team successfully returned the observatory to its science state. The SFP also performed well in the presence of anomalous behavior below true safety limits by not taking unnecessary response actions, instead allowing the operations team time to monitor the behavior. Certain aspects of the SFP design were modified during operations via both parameter updates and a full flight software update in order to better match the vehicle behavior in the flight environment. An evaluation of the SMAP SFP performance during vehicle Commissioning will be provided in this paper, as well as a set of lessons learned largely focused on visibility, SFP mutability in operations, responses to peripheral device faults, and Safe Mode recovery and design. By capturing some of the knowledge gained during SMAP Commissioning, it is intended that this paper provide guidance for making future System Fault Protection designs more robust and supportive of operations.

Clark, Jessica↗

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗

Effects of heavy particle irradiation and diet on amphetamine- and lithium chloride-induced taste avoidance learning in rats

Rats were maintained on diets containing either 2% blueberry or strawberry extract or a control diet for 8 weeks prior to being exposed to 1.5 Gy of 56Fe particles in the Alternating Gradient Synchrotron at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Three days following irradiation, the rats were tested for the effects of irradiation on the acquisition of an amphetamine- or lithium chloride-induced (LiCl) conditioned taste avoidance (CTA). The rats maintained on the control diet failed to show the acquisition of a CTA following injection of amphetamine. In contrast, the rats maintained on antioxidant diets (strawberry or blueberry extract) continued to show the development of an amphetamine-induced CTA following exposure to 56Fe particles. Neither irradiation nor diet had an effect on the acquisition of a LiCl-induced CTA. The results are interpreted as indicating that oxidative stress following exposure to 56Fe particles may be responsible for the disruption of the dopamine-mediated amphetamine-induced CTA in rats fed control diets; and that a reduction in oxidative stress produced by the antioxidant diets functions to reinstate the dopamine-mediated CTA. The failure of either irradiation or diet to influence LiCl-induced responding suggests that oxidative stress may not be involved in CTA learning following injection of LiCl.

Non-NASA Center↗

AstroAmpSeq: Microbial Bioinformatics Education with NASA GeneLab’s Amplicon Pipeline

The prevalence and importance of large sequencing datasets in microbiology has led to a movement to share microbial ecology experimental data through open-access databases. This is particularly true of experiments that are difficult to replicate, such as those conducted in the spaceflight environment and shared via NASA GeneLab. It is now possible and indeed valuable for students to access and re-analyze these shared datasets for educational and research purposes. To provide students with experience utilizing microbial bioinformatics tools, GeneLab for Colleges and Universities (GL4U) has designed AstroAmpSeq, a week-long, virtually implemented project-based learning (PBL) minicourse to instruct undergraduate students on 16S amplicon sequencing. AstroAmpSeq was created to be accessible to students without prior bioinformatics or microbial ecology experience. During the minicourse students work in teams to process, analyze, and visualize a subsample of GeneLab dataset GLDS-280 using GeneLab’s standard amplicon processing pipeline, which is based in R. Students develop a hypothesis related to the dataset then generate and analyze figures to evaluate their hypothesis. Formative assessment of student learning is determined via pre- and post-evaluations, peer feedback, and self-reflection. Project and presentation rubrics serve as a summative assessment of student learning. GL4U AstroAmpSeq not only meets American Society for Microbiology Curriculum Guidelines, but also incites student interest in research by an inquiry-based approach and can be made part of a larger semester-long curriculum. GL4U AstroAmpSeq raises awareness of space microbiology and bioinformatics as a field and career path among undergraduates. Further, by using a GeneLab dataset and nesting microbiology techniques into the real-world application of space biology, AstroAmpSeq enforces deeper and longer-lasting student learning.

microbiology↗