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At least 91 records · Page 5

Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

Gardner, Adrian↗

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) Overview and Comparison to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2)

Earth-GRAM (Earth-Global Reference Atmospheric Model) Overview: Provides monthly statistics at any point in the atmosphere; Monthly, geographic, altitude variation; Current Version - Earth-GRAM 2016, C++; Output Includes - pressure, density, temperature, horizontal and vertical winds, speed of sound, atmospheric constituents; Used by engineering community to create atmospheric dispersions at a rapid runtime; Not a forecast model. MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) Background: Developed by NASA Goddard Modelling and Assimilation Office; Horizontal Resolution: 0.625 degrees by 0.5 degrees longitude-by-latitude grid (NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis I vs. 2.5 degrees by 2.5 degrees currently used in Earth-GRAM); Vertical resolution: 72 model layers or interpolated to 42 pressure levels to 0.1 hectopascals (hPa) (NCEP reanalysis I, surface to 10hPa at 17 pressure levels).

White, Patrick W.↗

Uncertainty of Observation Impact Estimation in an Adjoint Model Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoint models are often used to estimate the impact of different observations on short-term forecast skill. A common difficulty with the evaluation of short term forecast quality is the choice of verification fields. The use of self-analysis fields for verification is typical but incestuous, and introduces uncertainty due to biases and errors in the analysis field. In this study, an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is used to explore the uncertainty in adjoint model estimations of observation impact. The availability of the true state for verification in the OSSE framework in the form of the Nature Run allows calculation of the observation impact without the uncertainties present in self-analysis verification. These impact estimates are compared to estimates calculated using self-analysis verification. The Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) forecast model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) is used with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) OSSE capability. The adjoint model includes moist processes, with total wet energy selected as the norm for evaluation of observation impacts. The results show that there are measurable but small discrepancies in the adjoint model estimation of observation impact. In general, observations of temperature and winds tend to have overestimated impacts with self-analysis verification, while observations of humidity and moisture-affected observations tend to have underestimated impacts. The small magnitude of the differences in impact estimates supports the robustness of the adjoint method of estimating observation impacts.

N C Prive↗

A sequential decoding performance analysis for International Comet Explorer

The effect of a noisy reference carrier on the performance of International Comet Explorer (ICE) Sequential decoder is analyzed. Ideal reference models for frame deletion probability are given for the Telemetry Processing Assembly (TPA) and the Linkabit (LS4815) sequential decoders. Based on these ideal reference models the deletion probability in the presence of noisy reference carrier is computed for both the high and the low data rate cases. A medium data rate performance model is then derived using an interpolation method. The derived medium rate performance model depends on the phase locked loop bandwidth-integration time product. Results are obtained for frame length 1024 bits, data bit rates of 1024 bps and 512 bps, modulation index of 60 deg, and threshold loop bandwidths of 10 Hz and 3 Hz. The medium rate model agrees with experimental data to within measurement uncertainty. For the 10 Hz loop bandwidth and modulation index of 60 deg at frame deletion rate of 0.0001, the required total received power to noise ratio is 36 dB. The analysis given is general and applicable to any sequential decoder, provided that the ideal reference model of the decoder is available.

Divsalar, D.↗

Elliptic surface grid generation on minimal and parmetrized surfaces

An elliptic grid generation method is presented which generates excellent boundary conforming grids in domains in 2D physical space. The method is based on the composition of an algebraic and elliptic transformation. The composite mapping obeys the familiar Poisson grid generation system with control functions specified by the algebraic transformation. New expressions are given for the control functions. Grid orthogonality at the boundary is achieved by modification of the algebraic transformation. It is shown that grid generation on a minimal surface in 3D physical space is in fact equivalent to grid generation in a domain in 2D physical space. A second elliptic grid generation method is presented which generates excellent boundary conforming grids on smooth surfaces. It is assumed that the surfaces are parametrized and that the grid only depends on the shape of the surface and is independent of the parametrization. Concerning surface modeling, it is shown that bicubic Hermite interpolation is an excellent method to generate a smooth surface which is passing through a given discrete set of control points. In contrast to bicubic spline interpolation, there is extra freedom to model the tangent and twist vectors such that spurious oscillations are prevented.

Spekreijse, S. P.↗

Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

Warner, James E.↗

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled GSI/WRF Forecasts

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) are the operational systems that make up the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) analysis used by National Weather Service forecasters. The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) manages and distributes the code for the WRF and GSI, but it is up to individual researchers to link the systems together and write scripts to run the systems, which can take considerable time for those not familiar with the code. The objective of this project is to develop and disseminate a set of dynamic scripts that mimic the unique cycling configuration of the operational NAM to enable researchers to develop new modeling and data assimilation techniques that can be easily transferred to operations. The current version of the SPoRT GSI/WRF Scripts (v3.0.1) is compatible with WRF v3.3 and GSI v3.0.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Execute Cycled GSI/WRF Forecasts

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) are the operational systems that make up the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS) analysis used by National Weather Service forecasters. The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) manages and distributes the code for the WRF and GSI, but it is up to individual researchers to link the systems together and write scripts to run the systems, which can take considerable time for those not familiar with the code. The objective of this project is to develop and disseminate a set of dynamic scripts that mimic the unique cycling configuration of the operational NAM to enable researchers to develop new modeling and data assimilation techniques that can be easily transferred to operations. The current version of the SPoRT GSI/WRF Scripts (v3.0.1) is compatible with WRF v3.3 and GSI v3.0.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Conical-Domain Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

The conical-domain model is a computational model, now undergoing development, for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. Relative to the standard ionospheric delay model described below, the conical-domain model offers improved accuracy. In the absence of selective availability, the ionosphere is the largest source of error for single-frequency users of GPS. Because ionospheric signal delays contribute to errors in GPS position and time measurements, satellite-based augmentation systems (SBASs) have been designed to estimate these delays and broadcast corrections. Several national and international SBASs are currently in various stages of development to enhance the integrity and accuracy of GPS measurements for airline navigation. In the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) of the United States, slant ionospheric delay errors and confidence bounds are derived from estimates of vertical ionospheric delay modeled on a grid at regularly spaced intervals of latitude and longitude. The estimate of vertical delay at each ionospheric grid point (IGP) is calculated from a planar fit of neighboring slant delay measurements, projected to vertical using a standard, thin-shell model of the ionosphere. Interpolation on the WAAS grid enables estimation of the vertical delay at the ionospheric pierce point (IPP) corresponding to any arbitrary measurement of a user. (The IPP of a given user s measurement is the point where the GPS signal ray path intersects a reference ionospheric height.) The product of the interpolated value and the user s thin-shell obliquity factor provides an estimate of the user s ionospheric slant delay. Two types of error that restrict the accuracy of the thin-shell model are absent in the conical domain model: (1) error due to the implicit assumption that the electron density is independent of the azimuthal angle at the IPP and (2) error arising from the slant-to-vertical conversion. At low latitudes or at mid-latitudes under disturbed conditions, the accuracy of SBAS systems based upon the thin-shell model suffers due to the presence of complex ionospheric structure, high delay values, and large electron density gradients. Interpolation on the vertical delay grid serves as an additional source of delay error. The conical-domain model permits direct computation of the user s slant delay estimate without the intervening use of a vertical delay grid. The key is to restrict each fit of GPS measurements to a spatial domain encompassing signals from only one satellite. The conical domain model is so named because each fit involves a group of GPS receivers that all receive signals from the same GPS satellite (see figure); the receiver and satellite positions define a cone, the satellite position being the vertex. A user within a given cone evaluates the delay to the satellite directly, using (1) the IPP coordinates of the line of sight to the satellite and (2) broadcast fit parameters associated with the cone. The conical-domain model partly resembles the thin-shell model in that both models reduce an inherently four-dimensional problem to two dimensions. However, unlike the thin-shell model, the conical domain model does not involve any potentially erroneous simplifying assumptions about the structure of the ionosphere. In the conical domain model, the initially four-dimensional problem becomes truly two-dimensional in the sense that once a satellite location has been specified, any signal path emanating from a satellite can be identified by only two coordinates; for example, the IPP coordinates. As a consequence, a user s slant-delay estimate converges to the correct value in the limit that the receivers converge to the user s location (or, equivalently, in the limit that the measurement IPPs converge to the user s IPP).

Sparks, Lawrence↗

Multi-grid for structures analysis

In structural analysis the amount of computational time necessary for a solution is proportional to the number of degrees of freedom times the bandwidth squared. In implicit time analysis, this must be done at each discrete point in time. If, in addition, the problem is nonlinear, then this solution must be iterated at each point in time. If the bandwidth is large, the size of the problem that can be analyzed is severely limited. The multi-grid method is a possible algorithm which can make this solution much more computationally efficient. This method has been used for years in computational fluid mechanics. It works on the fact that relaxation is very efficient on the high frequency components of the solution (nearest neighbor interactions) and not very good on low frequency components of the solution (far interactions). The multi-grid method is then to relax the solution on a particular model until the residual stops changing. This indicates that the solution contains the higher frequency components. A coarse model is then generated for the lower frequency components to the solution. The model is then relaxed for the lower frequency components of the solution. These lower frequency components are then interpolated to the fine model. In computational fluid mechanics the equations are usually expressed as finite differences.

Kascak, Albert F.↗

Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Uncertainty Due to Unsteady Fluid/Structure Interaction for the Ares I Vehicle Traversing the Transonic Regime

Rapid reduced-order numerical models are being investigated as candidates to simulate the dynamics of a flexible launch vehicle during atmospheric ascent. There has also been the extension of these new approaches to include gust response. These methods are used to perform aeroelastic and gust response analyses at isolated Mach numbers. Such models require a method to time march through a succession of ascent Mach numbers. An approach is presented for interpolating reduced-order models of the unsteady aerodynamics at successive Mach numbers. The transonic Mach number range is considered here since launch vehicles can suffer the highest dynamic loads through this range. Realistic simulations of the flexible vehicle behavior as it traverses this Mach number range are presented. The response of the vehicle due to gusts is computed. Uncertainties in root mean square and maximum bending moment and crew module accelerations are presented due to assumed probability distributions in design parameters, ascent flight conditions, gusts. The primary focus is on the uncertainty introduced by modeling fidelity. It is found that an unsteady reduced order model produces larger excursions in the root mean square loading and accelerations than does a quasi-steady reduced order model.

Bartels, Robert E.↗

Hybrid CFD Engineering Model of Plume Induced Erosion and Crater Formation During Descent of Lunar Landers

With rapidly increased worldwide interest in landing on the moon, the issue of Plume Surface Interactions (PSI) is gaining attention. Hazards posed by lander plume induced dust and debris, as well as landing site deformation can be mitigated when better understood through predictive simulations. As simulation enabling computational power continues to increase, hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)/Engineering models provide the immediate ability to conduct parametric/trade studies driving design decisions for landers. Reduced order erosion engineering models apply correlations of the surface erosion rate to the plume induced surface forces with the correlations anchored to flight observations from Apollo LM landings. The MSFC propulsion fluid dynamics branch has developed such a hybrid model for predicting the plume induced viscous erosive regression of the Lunar surface beneath a landing vehicle. The (Descent Interpolated Gas Granular Erosion Model) DIGGEM was originally implemented as a post processing tool to calculate induced erosion rates through vehicle descent using CFD solutions of the vehicle plume at several fixed altitudes. This capability has since been advanced in the Loci/Chem-DIGGEM model to allow transient, moving vehicle, fully coupled viscous erosion modeling of vehicle descent PSI. This model has recently been used to make preflight predictions of the erosive regression of the ground beneath a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) vehicle in support of measurements to be made by the Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume Surface Studies (SCALPSS) instrument.

Plume Surface Interaction↗

Hybrid CFD Engineering Model of Plume Induced Erosion and Crater Formation During Descent of Lunar Landers

With rapidly increased worldwide interest in landing on the moon, the issue of Plume Surface Interactions (PSI) is gaining attention. Hazards posed by lander plume induced dust and debris, as well as landing site deformation can be mitigated when better understood through predictive simulations. As simulation enabling computational power continues to increase, hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)/Engineering models provide the immediate ability to conduct parametric/trade studies driving design decisions for landers. Reduced order erosion engineering models apply correlations of the surface erosion rate to the plume induced surface forces with the correlations anchored to flight observations from Apollo LM landings. The MSFC propulsion fluid dynamics branch has developed such a hybrid model for predicting the plume induced viscous erosive regression of the Lunar surface beneath a landing vehicle. The (Descent Interpolated Gas Granular Erosion Model) DIGGEM was originally implemented as a post processing tool to calculate induced erosion rates through vehicle descent using CFD solutions of the vehicle plume at several fixed altitudes. This capability has since been advanced in the Loci/Chem-DIGGEM model to allow transient, moving vehicle, fully coupled viscous erosion modeling of vehicle descent PSI. This model has recently been used to make preflight predictions of the erosive regression of the ground beneath a Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) vehicle in support of measurements to be made by the Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume Surface Studies (SCALPSS) instrument.

Plume Surface Interaction↗

Networks for image acquisition, processing and display

The human visual system comprises layers of networks which sample, process, and code images. Understanding these networks is a valuable means of understanding human vision and of designing autonomous vision systems based on network processing. Ames Research Center has an ongoing program to develop computational models of such networks. The models predict human performance in detection of targets and in discrimination of displayed information. In addition, the models are artificial vision systems sharing properties with biological vision that has been tuned by evolution for high performance. Properties include variable density sampling, noise immunity, multi-resolution coding, and fault-tolerance. The research stresses analysis of noise in visual networks, including sampling, photon, and processing unit noises. Specific accomplishments include: models of sampling array growth with variable density and irregularity comparable to that of the retinal cone mosaic; noise models of networks with signal-dependent and independent noise; models of network connection development for preserving spatial registration and interpolation; multi-resolution encoding models based on hexagonal arrays (HOP transform); and mathematical procedures for simplifying analysis of large networks.

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.↗

A frost formation model and its validation under various experimental conditions

A numerical model that was used to calculate the frost properties for all regimes of frost growth is described. In the first regime of frost growth, the initial frost density and thickness was modeled from the theories of crystal growth. The 'frost point' temperature was modeled as a linear interpolation between the dew point temperature and the fog point temperature, based upon the nucleating capability of the particular condensing surfaces. For a second regime of frost growth, the diffusion model was adopted with the following enhancements: the generalized correlation of the water frost thermal conductivity was applied to practically all water frost layers being careful to ensure that the calculated heat and mass transfer coefficients agreed with experimental measurements of the same coefficients.

Dietenberger, M. A.↗

Assessing the Uncertainty Impact of CERES Fast Longwave and SHortwave Radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) Level 3 Product With and Without Terra Observations

The Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of how Earth’s energy flows are varying in time and space and how clouds and aerosols are affecting the Earth’s radiation budget. Nominally, CERES data products require months of validation and calibration before releasing a climate quality data. The Fast Longwave And SHortwave radiative Flux (FLASHFlux) data product was developed to provide data for applied science research involving the renewable energy and agricultural sectors within a week of observation. FLASHFlux achieves this by using simplified calibration, an operational meteorological product from Global Monitoring and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and a surface parameterizations model. The CERES FLASHFlux provides two data products: 1) an hourly Level 2 Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) data separately for Terra and NOAA-20 observations. 2) a daily Level 3 Time Interpolated and Spatially Averaged (TISA) gridded data that combines NOAA-20 and Terra observations on a one-degree equal angle grid. FLASHFlux TISA data product interpolate on a diurnal model that assumes a satellite equilateral crossing time of 10:30 AM and 1:30 PM from Terra and Aqua, respectively. Aqua was replaced by NOAA-20 starting on September 2022. Terra is planned to be replace by the Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) soon. We are currently using the Terra observations as it continues to drift. We assess the impact of FLASHFlux TISA data when Terra is removed. An uncertainty estimate of the Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) fluxes are given of FLASHFlux Version4A (before Terra drift) and Version4B (current), and Version4B (no Terra) in comparison to the CERES EBAF and SYN1deg. In addition, we compare FLASHFlux Version4B and Version4B (no Terra) surface radiative fluxes to ground base measurements to determine the impact of running without Terra data.

PC Sawaengphokhai↗

Neutral parcel transport in the high latitude F-region

The NCAR Thermospheric General Circulation model (TGCM) is used together with a 'post-processor' diagnostic package to analyze neutral parcel transport in the high latitude F-region. The diagnostic package includes a feature that enables individual parcels of neutral gas to be tracked by interpolation through the TGCM model grid in time and space. Various trajectories have been calculated to illustrate the predicted loci of neutral gas parcels that encounter large ion-drag forces due to the ionospheric mapping of the magnetospheric convection electric field. The trajectories, calculated for a 'steady state', diurnally reproducible run of the TGCM, show that the cusp region plays an exceedingly important regulatory or nozzle role for the overall flow pattern and has great influence on the energization of the F-region polar cap. In particular, it is found that the trajectory of a 'typical' F-region neutral gas parcel passes through the cusp region at least once and sometimes twice in a 24 hour period due to the convergent geometry of the ion convection pattern.

Killeen, T. L.↗