NASA NTRS2000
Mars may have substantially decreased its average axial tilt over geologic time due to the waxing and waning of water ice caps through the phenomenon of climate friction (also called obliquity-oblateness feedback). Depending upon Mars' climate and internal structure, water caps of the order of 10(exp 17) - 10(exp 18) kg cycling with the obliquity oscillations could have either increased or decreased the average obliquity by possibly tens of degrees over the age of the solar system. Gravity and topography observations by the Mars Global Surveyor indicate that the south polar cap is mostly uncompensated, so that Mars may be largely rigid on the obliquity timescale. Further, Mars may be a water-rich planet, so that there is a large phase angle between insolation forcing and the size of the obliquity-driven water caps. A stiff, water-rich planet implies an obliquity decrease over the eons. Such a decrease might account for the apparent youthfulness of the polar layered terrain. The idea is that fewer volatiles were available to be cycled into and out of the terrain at high mean obliquity, because of the eveness of insolation between equator and pole, and because of small insolation variations as the obliquity oscillated; so that the movement of volatiles and dust produced thin layers or perhaps no layers at all. As the average obliquity decreased, the insolation contrast between high and low latitudes increased, plus the insolation variations over the obliquity cycle grew somewhat bigger, so that more volatiles and dust might have shuttled into and out of the polar regions, forming the observed thick layers late in Mars' history. It may also be that the average tilt has decreased to the point where the climate friction mechanism is starving itself: more and more water has gotten locked up in the polar regions, making less available for cycling with the oscillations. And the layer-forming mechanism may be starving too: not only less water, but also at low average obliquity the atmospheric pressure is lower, so that dust storms become rarer, making less dust available to be deposited in the layers. The rate of water ice sublimation and the atmospheric pressure are both expected to drop sharply for obliquities only slightly lower than the present one. Hence there are qualitative reasons for believing that (a) the mean obliquity may be about as low as it can get, and (b) the mechanism for making the layers may turn off at low average obliquity, so that the layered terrain is a transient phenomenon. Thus the formation of the layered terrain may be intimately connected to a change in the mean axial tilt.