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At least 91 records · Page 5

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

The feasibility of long-range weather prediction through the use of global general circulation models (GCMs) was investigated. A climate model was developed to simulate the monthly mean state of the atmosphere from real global initial data at the beginning of the month. The model contains the same dynamic and physical ingredients as most numerical weather prediction models and GCMs. The model generates a one-day global simulation on the 8 x 10 grid in four minutes (on an IBM 360/95 computer), so that a 30 day forecast can be executed in two hours. The high speed of the model is achieved mainly at the price of its coarse resolution, which requires certain parameterizations of surface boundary conditions, as well as inherent filtering of smaller-scale features of the initial state.

Spar, J.↗

Effect Of Noise In The Ideal State Reconstructor

More measurements yield better estimate. Report discusses effects of measurement noise on system including linear, time-invariant plant of measurable inputs and known parameters and deterministic digital control subsystem governed by algorithm called "ideal state reconstructor." So named because in absence of noise, it exactly reconstructs vector represting state of plant, even without knowledge of initial state. Ideal state reconstructor adds no new states or eigenvalues to system; affects measurement equation only.

Polites, Michael E.↗

Temporal evolution of the solar wind and the formation of a standing shock

The temporal evolution of the solar wind from one steady state to another is explored when momentum deposition produces multiple critical points in the flow. It is shown that the wind always evolves in time to a new steady state compatible with the solution of the steady state equation of motion. However, for the same initial state and identical asymptotic momentum deposition rate, the temporal evolution pattern of the wind depends on the detailed time history of momentum addition and is therefore not unique. This feature plays an important role in the particular case when multiple (three in this study) steady states exist for identical boundary conditions; each one of these solutions is thus shown to be physically accessible. The details of the temporal evolution pattern of the wind reveal the formation of a shock discontinuity whenever the flow becomes supersonic at a critical point upstream from the initial critical point. If the flow remains supersonic at that inner critical point, the shock can become a standing one, depending on the strength and the temporal history of momentum addition. The results of this study indicate that the time scale required for the solar wind to evolve between steady states is of the order of 30-60 hours. Furthermore, the results also reveal the interesting and novel phenomenon that a standing shock is likely to develop in the inner solar wind flow within this time frame, in particular, in coronal hole regions with rapidly diverging geometries.

Habbal, S. R.↗

Assessment of the Gaussian Covariance Approximation over an Earth-Asteroid Encounter Period

In assessing the risk an asteroid may pose to the Earth, the asteroids state is often predicted for many years, often decades. Only by accounting for the asteroids initial state uncertainty can a measure of the risk be calculated. With the asteroids state uncertainty growing as a function of the initial velocity uncertainty, orbit velocity at the last state update, and the time from the last update to the epoch of interest, the asteroids position uncertainties can grow to many times the size of the Earth when propagated to the encounter risk corridor. This paper examines the merits of propagating the asteroids state covariance as an analytical matrix. The results of this study help to bound the efficacy of applying different metrics for assessing the risk an asteroid poses to the Earth. Additionally, this work identifies a criterion for when different covariance propagation methods are needed to continue predictions after an Earth-encounter period.

planetary defense↗

Assessment of the Gaussian Covariance Approximation over an Earth-Asteroid Encounter Period

In assessing the risk an asteroid may pose to the Earth, the asteroids state is often predicted for many years, often decades. Only by accounting for the asteroids initial state uncertainty can a measure of the risk be calculated. With the asteroids state uncertainty growing as a function of the initial velocity uncertainty, orbit velocity at the last state update, and the time from the last update to the epoch of interest, the asteroids position uncertainties can grow to many times the size of the Earth when propagated to the encounter risk corridor. This paper examines the merits of propagating the asteroids state covariance as an analytical matrix. The results of this study help to bound the efficacy of applying different metrics for assessing the risk an asteroid poses to the Earth. Additionally, this work identifies a criterion for when different covariance propagation methods are needed to continue predictions after an Earth-encounter period.

uncertainty characterization↗

Optimal Low Energy Earth-Moon Transfers

The optimality of a low-energy Earth-Moon transfer is examined for the first time using primer vector theory. An optimal control problem is formed with the following free variables: the location, time, and magnitude of the transfer insertion burn, and the transfer time. A constraint is placed on the initial state of the spacecraft to bind it to a given initial orbit around a first body, and on the final state of the spacecraft to limit its Keplerian energy with respect to a second body. Optimal transfers in the system are shown to meet certain conditions placed on the primer vector and its time derivative. A two point boundary value problem containing these necessary conditions is created for use in targeting optimal transfers. The two point boundary value problem is then applied to the ballistic lunar capture problem, and an optimal trajectory is shown. Additionally, the ballistic lunar capture trajectory is examined to determine whether one or more additional impulses may improve on the cost of the transfer.

Griesemer, Paul Ricord↗

Squeezed states and graviton-entropy production in the early universe

Squeezed states are a very useful framework for the quantum treatment of tensor perturbations (i.e. gravitons production) in the early universe. In particular, the non equilibrium entropy growth in a cosmological process of pair production is completely determined by the associated squeezing parameter and is insensitive to the number of particles in the initial state. The total produced entropy may represent a significant fraction of the entropy stored today in the cosmic blackbody radiation, provided pair production originates from a change in the background metric at a curvature scale of the Planck order. Within the formalism of squeezed thermal states it is also possible to discuss the stimulated emission of gravitons from an initial thermal bath, under the action of the cosmic gravitational background field. We find that at low energy the graviton production is enhanced, if compared with spontaneous creation from the vacuum; as a consequence, the inflation scale must be lowered, in order not to exceed the observed CMB quadrupole anisotropy. This effect is important, in particular, for models based on a symmetry-breaking transition which require, as initial condition, a state of thermal equilibrium at temperatures higher than the inflation scale and in which inflation has a minimal duration.

Giovannini, Massimo↗

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗

Two-state ion heating at quasi-parallel shocks

This paper documents the alternating occurrence of two different ion states of the ion distributions downstream from several quasi-parallel shocks: a cooler (and denser) core/shoulder type and a hotter (less dense) and more Maxwellian type. Three separate lines of evidence are presented to show that the two states are not related in an evolutionary sense, but that both are produced alternately at the shock: (1) the asymptotic downstream plasma parameters (density, ion temperautre, and flow speed) are intermediate between those characterizing the two different states closer to the shock, suggesting that the asymptotic state is produced by a mixing of the two initial states; (2) examples of apparently interpenetrating distributions are found during transitions from one state to the other; and (3) examples of both types of distributions are found at actual crossings of the shock ramp.

Thomsen, M. F.↗

Investigating Intrinsic and Extrinsic Variables During Simulated Internet Search

Using an eye tracker we examined decision-making processes during an internet search task. Twenty experienced homebuyers and twenty-five undergraduates from Old Dominion University viewed homes on a simulated real estate website. Several of the homes included physical properties that had the potential to negatively impact individual perceptions. These negative externalities were either easy to change (Level 1) or impossible to change (Level 2). Eye movements were analyzed to examine the relationship between participants' "stated preferences"[verbalized preferences], "revealed preferences" [actual decisions[, and experience. Dwell times, fixation durations/counts, and saccade counts/amplitudes were analyzed. Results revealed that experienced homebuyers demonstrated a more refined search pattern than novice searchers. Experienced homebuyers were also less impacted by negative externalities. Furthermore, stated preferences were discrepant from revealed preferences; although participants initially stated they liked/disliked a graphic, their eye movement patterns did not reflect this trend. These results have important implications for design of user-friendly web interfaces.

Liechty, Molly M.↗

Florida commercial space initiatives and technology transfer mechanisms

This paper discusses commercial space policy for the State of Florida in the context of state initiatives for general technology and economic development. The paper also compares Florida's commercial space initiatives to national space policies and describes mechanisms for transferring space related technologies and research to Florida businesses for subsequent development and commercialization.

Moore, Roger L.↗

Ab initio Screening of Refractory Nitrides and Carbides for High Temperature Hydrogen Permeation Barriers

Density functional theory was used to screen eleven refractory materials – two pure metals, six nitrides, and three carbides–as high-temperature hydrogen permeation barriers to prevent hydrogen embrittlement. Activation energies were calculated for atomic hydrogen (H) diffusion into the first subsurface layer from the lowest energy surface of the high-temperature phase of each candidate material. The candidate barrier materials with the highest activation energies are h-BN, c-BN, HfN, and ZrN with predicted barriers of 3.25 eV, 3.23 eV, 3.14 eV, and 2.76 eV, respectively. Strain energies, Bader charges, and density of states were calculated for the diffusing H at the relaxed initial state and the transition state to provide insight into contributing factors to high energy barriers. The diffusing H atom in materials with the highest predicted barriers are protic. In addition, interstitial H atoms induce mid-gap states in the density of states of both BN polymorphs. The nitrogen retention of each nitride material at high temperatures was predicted using nitrogen vacancy formation energies with respect to gaseous nitrogen. Experimental evaluation of nitrogen retention in h-BN, ZrN, and TiN confirmed their resistance to nitrogen loss at 1773 K. However, of these nitrides, TiN is predicted to be the least stable. This work identifies multiple promising materials that are predicted to be effective hydrogen barriers at high temperatures and that are stable at temperatures above 2700 K, with BN predicted to perform best.

Density Functional Theory (DFT)↗

HelioSwarm: Transfer Trajectory and P/2 Lunar Resonant Orbit Design for a Multi-Satellite Observatory

The HelioSwarm mission will fly a multi-satellite observatory in a P/2 lunar resonant orbit to study plasma turbulence in the solar wind. Lunar resonant orbits enable long-term access to high Earth altitudes. The relative dynamics of a multi-satellite observatory introduce novel considerations for lunar resonant orbit design. Additional maneuvers in the post lunar encounter transfer enable heightened control of the lunar resonant orbit initial state compared to previous missions. Adjusting the mission orbit’s initial conditions enables refinement of the orbit design based on requirements imposed by the relative dynamics of the observatory. refinement of the orbit design based on requirements imposed by the relative dynamics of the observatory.

cislunar↗

Onboard Navigation Error Analysis for Aerocapture at Uranus

Capturing into an orbit around Uranus using aerocapture allows one to design a mission with faster interplanetary trajectories and less propellant requirements. Such an aerocapture mission would rely on the onboard Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) subsystems to successfully capture into an orbit around Uranus. Uncertainty in the state information and the noise in the sensor measurements induce navigation errors in the guidance and control subsystems, which can affect the overall performance of the aerocapture mission at Uranus. Understanding the effect of these navigation errors on mission performance is essential. To this end, this work considers different sensors with varying quality to understand their impact on the overall mission performance. In addition, this paper studies the impact of the uncertainty in the initial states used to initialize the onboard navigation filter and understands their effect on mission performance. This paper also shows the onboard navigation errors obtained from the Linear Covariance (LinCov) analysis and uses them for verification and validation (V&V) of the results from Program to Optimize and Simulate Trajectories-II (POST2).

Pardha Sai Chadalavada↗

Onboard Navigation Error Analysis for Aerocapture at Uranus

Capturing into an orbit around Uranus using aerocapture allows one to design a mission with faster interplanetary trajectories and less propellant requirements. Such an aerocapture mission would rely on the onboard Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) subsystems to successfully capture into an orbit around Uranus. Uncertainty in the state information and the noise in the sensor measurements induce navigation errors in the guidance and control subsystems, which can affect the overall performance of the aerocapture mission at Uranus. Understanding the effect of these navigation errors on mission performance is essential. To this end, this work considers different sensors with varying quality to understand their impact on the overall mission performance. In addition, this paper studies the impact of the uncertainty in the initial states used to initialize the onboard navigation filter and understands their effect on mission performance. This paper also shows the onboard navigation errors obtained from the Linear Covariance (LinCov) analysis and uses them for verification and validation (V\&V) of the results from Program to Optimize and Simulate Trajectories-II (POST2).

Aerocapture↗

Nonhomologous contraction and equilibria of self-gravitating, magnetic interstellar clouds embedded in an intercloud medium: Star formation. II - Results

The paper studies the equilibrium of self-gravitating isothermal models of interstellar clouds with a frozen-in magnetic field linked smoothly to the field of a hot tenuous intercloud medium. Equilibrium states are determined which can be reached by clouds contracting nonhomologously from a spherical uniform initial state. Three free parameters characterize the problem: a dimensionless initial radius related to the Jeans length of the cloud, the initial ratio of the magnetic and gas pressures in the cloud, and the initial ratio of the intercloud and cloud pressures. The dependence of the solutions on each of these parameters is investigated. It is found that: (1) the frozen-in field causes the cloud to become oblate with its major axis normal to the field lines; (2) the flattening increases as the magnetic-field strength, gravitational forces, or intercloud pressure increases; (3) increasing intercloud pressure eventually leads to gravitational collapse; and (4) the cloud can reach equilibrium only if its radius does not exceed some critical value. The observed inefficiency of the star-formation process within massive clouds is examined and explained in terms of magnetic phenomena in a collapsing cloud.

Mouschovias, T. C.↗

Entropy and chemical change. 1: Characterization of product (and reactant) energy distributions in reactive molecular collisions: Information and enthropy deficiency

Optimal means of characterizing the distribution of product energy states resulting from reactive collisions of molecules with restricted distributions of initial states are considered, along with those for characterizing the particular reactant state distribution which yields a given set of product states at a specified total energy. It is suggested to represent the energy-dependence of global-type results in the form of square-faced bar plots, and of data for specific-type experiments as triangular-faced prismatic plots. The essential parameters defining the internal state distribution are isolated, and the information content of such a distribution is put on a quantitative basis. The relationship between the information content, the surprisal, and the entropy of the continuous distribution is established. The concept of an entropy deficiency, which characterizes the specificity of product state formation, is suggested as a useful measure of the deviance from statistical behavior. The degradation of information by experimental averaging is considered, leading to bounds on the entropy deficiency.

Bernstein, R. B.↗

A new state reconstructor for digital controls systems using weighted-average measurements

A state reconstructor is presented for a linear continuous-time plant driven by a zero-order-hold. It takes a continuous-time output vector from the plant and convolutes it with a weighting-function matrix whose elements are time dependent. This result is integrated over T second intervals to generate weighted-averaged measurements, every T seconds, that are used in the state reconstruction process. If the plant is noise-free and can be modeled precisely, the output of this state reconstructor exactly equals the true state of the plant and accomplishes this without knowledge of the plant's initial state. If noise or modeling errors are a problem, it can be catenated with a state observer or a Kalman filter for a synergistic effect.

Polites, Michael E.↗