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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

Abstract The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO 2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerically modeling stochastic inflation in slow-roll and beyond

In this work, we present a complete numerical treatment of inflationary dynamics under the influence of stochastic corrections from sub-Hubble modes. We discuss how to exactly model the stochastic noise terms arising from the sub-Hubble quantum modes that give rise to the coarse-grained inflaton dynamics in the form of stochastic differential equations. The stochastic differential equations are solved event by event on a discrete time grid. We then compute the power spectrum of curvature perturbations that can be compared with the power spectrum computed in the traditional fashion using the Mukhanov-Sasaki equation by canonically quantizing the inflaton fluctuations. Our numerical procedure helps us to easily extend the formalism to ultra slow-roll inflation and study the possibility of primordial black hole formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Results and forecasts on cosmic inflation from weak lensing

Here, we highlight the role of weak lensing measurements from current and upcoming stage-IV imaging surveys in the search for cosmic inflation, specifically in measuring the scalar spectral index n s . To do so, we combine the Dark Energy Survey 3 years of observation weak lensing and clustering data with Bicep/Keck, Planck, and Sloan Digital Sky Survey data in r⁢Λ⁢ CDM (cold dark matter) where r is the tensor-to-scalar ratio. While there is no significant improvement in constraining power, we obtain a 1⁢σ shift on n s . Additionally, we forecast a weak lensing and clustering data vector from the 10-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and show its combination with current data would improve their n s constraints by 25% in r⁢Λ⁢ CDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bare mass effects on the reheating process after inflation

We consider the effects of a bare mass term for the inflaton, when the inflationary potential takes the form V(Φ)=λΦ k about its minimum with k ≥ 4. We concentrate on k =4, but discuss general cases as well. Further, we assume $λΦ$$^{2}_{end}$ >> $m$$^{2}_{Φ}$, where Φ end is the inflaton field value when the inflationary expansion ends. We show that the presence of a mass term (which may be present due to radiative corrections or supersymmetry breaking) can significantly alter the reheating process, as the equation of state of the inflaton condensate changes from w Φ = $\frac{1}{3}$ to w Φ = 0 when λ⁢Φ 2 drops below $m$$^{2}_{Φ}$. We show that, for a mass mΦ ≳ 3⁢λ $\frac{1}{4}$ T RH , the mass term will dominate at reheating. The value of λ is relatively model independent as it is normalized by the cosmic microwave background perturbation spectrum. For T models of inflation, this leads to m Φ ≳ T RH /250. We compute the effects on the reheating temperature for cases where reheating is due to inflaton decay (to fermions, scalars, or vectors) or to inflaton scattering (to scalars or vectors). For scattering to scalars and in the absence of a decay, there is always a residual inflaton background that acts as cold dark matter. In this case, we derive a strong upper limit to the inflaton bare mass which for T models is m Φ < 350 MeV⁢(T RH /10 10 GeV) 3/5 . We also consider the effect of the bare mass term on the fragmentation of the inflaton condensate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

BICEP/ Keck XVIII: Measurement of BICEP3 polarization angles and consequences for constraining cosmic birefringence and inflation

We use a custom-made calibrator to measure individual detectors’ polarization angles of BICEP3, a small aperture telescope observing the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 95 GHz from the South Pole. We describe our calibration strategy and the statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with the measurement. We reach an unprecedented precision for such measurement on a CMB experiment, with a repeatability for each detector pair of 0.02°. Here, we show that the relative angles measured using this method are in excellent agreement with those extracted from CMB data. Because the absolute measurement is currently limited by a systematic uncertainty, we do not derive cosmic birefringence constraints from BICEP3 data in this work. Rather, we forecast the sensitivity of BICEP3 sky maps for such analysis. We investigate the relative contributions of instrument noise, lensing, and dust, as well as astrophysical and instrumental systematics. We also explore the constraining power of different angle estimators, depending on analysis choices. We establish that the BICEP3 2-year dataset (2017–2018) has an on-sky sensitivity to the cosmic birefringence angle of 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.07⁢8°, which could be improved to 𝜎 𝛼 = 0.05⁢5° by adding all of the existing BICEP3 data (through 2023). Furthermore, we emphasize the possibility of using the BICEP3 sky patch as a polarization calibration source for CMB experiments, which with the present data could reach a precision of 0.035°. Finally, in the context of inflation searches, we investigate the impact of detector-to-detector variations in polarization angles as they may bias the tensor-to-scalar ratio 𝑟. We show that while the effect is expected to remain subdominant to other sources of systematic uncertainty, it can be reliably calibrated using polarization angle measurements such as the ones we present in this paper.

Cosmic microwave background↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian nonparametric analysis for zero-inflated multivariate count data with application to microbiome study

High-throughput sequencing technology has enabled researchers to profile microbial communities from a variety of environments, but analysis of multivariate taxon count data remains challenging. Here, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model with zero inflation to analyse multivariate count data from microbiome studies. A BNP approach flexibly models microbial associations with covariates, such as environmental factors and clinical characteristics. The model produces estimates for probability distributions which relate microbial diversity and differential abundance to covariates, and facilitates community comparisons beyond those provided by simple statistical tests. We compare the model to simpler models and popular alternatives in simulation studies, showing, in addition to these additional community-level insights, it yields superior parameter estimates and model fit in various settings. The model's utility is demonstrated by applying it to a chronic wound microbiome data set and a Human Microbiome Project data set, where it is used to compare microbial communities present in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overview of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) Home Energy Rebate Tool

The IRA Home Energy Rebate Tool (Tool) provides if/then analysis on the impact of two provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA); 50121 - Home Energy Performance-Based Whole-House Rebates (Home Efficiency Rebates or HOMES Program) and 50122 - High-Efficiency Electric Home Rebate Program (Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates or High-Efficiency Electric Appliances Rebates Program). The Tool can generate realistic scenarios based on the legislative text. The results of the Tool should not be interpreted as forecasts or predictions of what will happen for individual households, States or the nation. This overview provides a high level summary of the data inputs and methods.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on Nuclear Plant Power Uprate and Hydrogen Cogeneration

On August 16, 2022, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to promote investment in new, carbon-free power generation and sustainable operation of existing carbon-free assets. Specifically, the IRA includes both a production tax credit (PTC – Section 45Y of the IRA) and an investment tax credit (ITC – Section 48E) which utilities may leverage to offset the costs of power uprate. Further, the IRA includes a provision (Section 45V) for a PTC associated with carbon-free hydrogen cogeneration. These tax credits, along with recent legislation efforts to decarbonize the country, have re-emphasized the importance of maintaining and optimizing the existing nuclear plant operating fleet. As a result, utilities are reexamining the possibility of uprating their existing nuclear assets to further maximize carbon-free electricity generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on Domestic Manufacturing and Deployment for Land-Based Wind Turbines

The land-based wind energy industry in the United States has matured over the past several decades, representing 10% of the country's total electricity generation in 2022. It has experienced periods of rapid growth and decline in recent years, in large part because of supply chain disruptions at a global and domestic level. With the recent passing of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the industry faces unprecedented opportunities to strengthen domestic manufacturing and enable greater deployment over the next decade. To better understand the opportunities and challenges, the authors explore the value of relevant IRA provisions and provide a set of scenarios evaluating impacts on domestic component demand and manufacturing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Driving Investment in Wind Energy: An Introduction to Incentives and the Inflation Reduction Act [Slides]

In a webinar hosted by the U.S. Department of Energy's WINDExchange initiative, experts from the North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory introduce attendees to the key incentives supporting investment in wind energy deployment and manufacturing in the United States, as well as the role that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) plays in shaping those investments. Over the past few decades, incentives like the production tax credit and investment tax credit have supported the growth of wind energy deployment, while manufacturing-related incentives have helped scale up domestic manufacturing of wind energy components. With its passage in 2022, the IRA ushered in a new wave of investment in wind energy and other renewable technologies, as well as introducing new workforce requirements and equity provisions. This presentation explores the history and impact of major incentives, unpacks some of the complex provisions of the IRA, and highlights the ways federal incentives and policies will continue to shape the wind energy industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Final Technical Report: Testing the robustness of CMB-S4 inflation measurements to foreground models

This report summarizes the research activities for DOE award SC0024462, which focused on enhancing the robustness of CMB-S4 inflation measurements by characterizing and mitigating Galactic foreground interference. The project grounded foreground models in the physical processes of the Interstellar Medium with MHD and semi-analytic filament models, and developed analysis pipelines, such as Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC) techniques, to isolate faint cosmological signals.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act on Consumer Energy Expenditures

The Inflation Reduction Act introduced or expanded a suite of federal tax credits for clean electricity generation and customer adoption of electric (and other highly efficient) end-use equipment. These incentives are expected to drive changes in both the electricity generation mix and demand for electricity (especially for space heating and light-duty vehicles), which are highly interconnected. In this session, Caitlin Murphy, Group Manager and Senior Analyst in NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, will present findings from her team's recent state-level analysis on the combined effects of various IRA incentives on customer expenditures for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. She will present and explain the regional variations observed in their analysis, based on interactions between end-use equipment cost and performance and projections for future energy prices.

air source heat pump↗
DOE OSTI2023

Double-copy towards supergravity inflation with α-attractor models

A bstract Key to the simplicity of supergravity α -attractor models of inflation are Volkov-Akulov fermions, often in the form of nilpotent superfields. Here we explore the possibility of using the double-copy to construct theories of Dirac-Born-Infeld-Volkov-Akulov (DBIVA) coupled to supergravity. A color-dual bootstrap admits scattering amplitudes involving pions and vectors through five-point tree-level order by order in mass-dimension, but requires the introduction of a Tr( F 3 ) operator. Gauge theories with this operator were recently found to require a tower of higher-derivative operators to be compatible with the duality between color and kinematics. Adjoint-type double-copy construction at its most conservative seems to require the UV completion of DBIVA + pure Poincaré supergravity scattering amplitudes to a family of theories involving DBIVA-like particles coupled to Weyl-Einstein supergravity. We also point out an alternative solution to color-dual gauged pions that allows adjoint double-copy without a tower of higher derivative corrections but at the cost of exchange symmetry between scalars.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous shape and topology optimization of inflatable soft robots

Simultaneous shape and topology optimization is used to design pressure-activated inflatable soft robots. The pressure loaded boundary is meshed conformingly and shape optimized, while the morphology of the robot is topology optimized. The design objective is to exert maximum force on an object, i.e. to produce soft “grippers”. The robot’s motion is modeled using nearly incompressible finite deformation hyperelasticity. To ensure stability of the robot, the buckling load factors obtained via linearized buckling analyses are constrained. The finite element method is used to evaluate the optimization cost and constraint functions and the adjoint method is employed to compute their sensitivities. The numerical examples produce pressure-driven soft robots with varying complexity. We also compare our simultaneous optimization results to those obtained via sequential topology and then shape optimization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uplift and Seismicity Driven by Magmatic Inflation at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos Islands

Abstract Although episodes of surface uplift and elevated seismicity precede many volcanic eruptions, their temporal evolution is often complex, and apparently in contradiction to simple trends predicted by mechanical deformation models. Here, we use continuous global positioning system and seismic data recorded at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands, to show how the edifice responded to stress changes driven by magma accumulation in a shallow sill. The rate of uplift varied during the 13 years and 6.5 m of inflation before the 2018 eruption. The number of earthquakes per unit of uplift increased exponentially with total uplift as the differential stress increased. Accordingly, the temporal seismicity rate varied in time as a function of both the total uplift and the uplift rate. The Gutenberg‐Richter b ‐value decreased as a function of total uplift. In the final six months before the eruption, a sequence of large ( M > 4) earthquakes regulated the state of stress on the fault, each being followed by 2–3 days of postseismic quiescence, and retarding the increase in seismicity rate. These earthquakes did not affect the overall uplift rate. Subsidence of 8.5 m accompanied the 2‐month eruption. On resumption of uplift, the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift was very low, and the b ‐value high, reflecting the relaxed stress state of the fault system. These observations show that crustal deformation becomes increasingly brittle at higher stress states, and supports theoretical models based on elastic‐brittle mechanics. They suggest that joint interpretation of deformation and seismicity is key for forecasting future eruptions in similar volcanic settings.

Bell, Andrew Forbes↗
DOE OSTI2026

Violent mergers can explain the inflated state of some of the fastest stars in the Galaxy

A significant number of hypervelocity stars with velocities between 1500 − 2500 km s −1 have recently been observed. The only plausible explanation so far is that they were produced through thermonuclear supernovae in white dwarf binaries. Since these stars are thought to be surviving donors of Type Ia supernovae, a surprising finding was that these stars are inflated, with radii an order of magnitude higher than expected for Roche-lobe-filling donors. Recent attempts at explaining them have combined 3D hydrodynamical supernova explosion simulations with 1D stellar modelling to explain the impact of supernova shocks on runaway white dwarfs. However, only the hottest and most compact of those runaway stars can so far marginally be reproduced by detailed models of runaways from supernova explosions. In this and a companion paper, we introduce a new AREPO simulation of two massive CO white dwarfs that explode via a violent merger. During the merger, the primary white dwarf ignites when the secondary is on its last orbit and plunging towards the primary. In the corresponding aftermath, the core of the secondary white dwarf of 0.16 M ⊙ remains bound, moving at a velocity of ∼2800 km s −1 . We mapped this object into MESA and show that this runaway star can explain the observations of two hypervelocity stars that were dubbed D6-1 and D6-3 based on their original discovery motivated by the D6 scenario, though the violent merger scenario presented here is somewhat distinct from the D6 scenario.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗