Results for “improvement” — Page 5

NASA NTRS2000

Evolving Improvements to TRMM Ground Validation Rainfall Estimates

The primary function of the TRMM Ground Validation (GV) Program is to create GV rainfall products that provide basic validation of satellite-derived precipitation measurements for select primary sites. Since the successful 1997 launch of the TRMM satellite, GV rainfall estimates have demonstrated systematic improvements directly related to improved radar and rain gauge data, modified science techniques, and software revisions. Improved rainfall estimates have resulted in higher quality GV rainfall products and subsequently, much improved evaluation products for the satellite-based precipitation estimates from TRMM. This presentation will demonstrate how TRMM GV rainfall products created in a semi-automated, operational environment have evolved and improved through successive generations. Monthly rainfall maps and rainfall accumulation statistics for each primary site will be presented for each stage of GV product development. Contributions from individual product modifications involving radar reflectivity (Ze)-rain rate (R) relationship refinements, improvements in rain gauge bulk-adjustment and data quality control processes, and improved radar and gauge data will be discussed. Finally, it will be demonstrated that as GV rainfall products have improved, rainfall estimation comparisons between GV and satellite have converged, lending confidence to the satellite-derived precipitation measurements from TRMM.

Robinson, M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Reflective Focused Schlieren System Improved for Use in 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

The reflective focused schlieren system that was developed for use in the 10- by 10-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel (10x10 SWT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field as part of the Unstart Test Program was improved this past year. In April 1999, the development and use of the system was presented at the Supersonic Tunnel Association International in Bedford, England. A focused schlieren system is similar to a standard schlieren system in that shock waves coming from an object in supersonic flow can be seen using a standard video camera. Unlike the standard schlieren system, which produces a two-dimensional schlieren image, a focused schlieren system can produce a threedimensional image. The preceding drawing shows the components of the reflective focused schlieren system being developed for use in the 10x10 SWT. Although the system worked well for the Unstart Test Program, it was not sensitive enough to be classified as a facility capability. Therefore, a program was implemented to improve the sensitivity of the reflective focused schlieren system so that it could be a facility capability for Glenn's 10x10 SWT. Several techniques were implemented to increase the sensitivity and to improve the overall operation of the system. These included refinement of the source grid, improvement in the cutoff grid production, improvement of the source grid and cutoff grid alignment, installation of an improved light source, and incorporation of an image-enhancing system. These changes are being implemented with the system set up in the laboratory. A checkout test of the system is planned in the 10x10 SWT in March 2000. Of these techniques, the most developed is the refinement of the source grid. The original system had a pattern of -in. by -in. squares on -in. centers (distance between the center points of adjacent squares). This gave a ratio of light to dark (reflective to nonreflective area) of 3:1. The recommended ratio is 1:1. In order to accomplish this, a pattern of -in.-diameter dots on 3/8-in. centers was developed. Preliminary tests with this pattern showed an increase in system sensitivity and image clarity. Further testing and refinement are scheduled. The former and improved dot patterns are shown. The use of glass plates to produce the cutoff grid improved the cutoff grid's quality and helped to align it with the source grid. The cutoff grid, which is the negative of the source grid, is made by exposing photography film (or glass plates) to the proper light while it is installed in the focused schlieren system. The exposed film or plate is removed from the system and then developed as a photograph negative. Because the glass plates are rigid, they eliminate the risk of distortion when the negative is reinstalled in the system and realigned with the source grid.

Williamson, Gary Scott↗

NASA NTRS2008

Requirements for an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) for Improved Regional Weather Prediction and Monitoring of Greenhouse Gases

Hyperspectral infrared atmospheric sounders (e.g., the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on Met Op) provide highly accurate temperature and water vapor profiles in the lower to upper troposphere. These systems are vital operational components of our National Weather Prediction system and the AIRS has demonstrated over 6 hrs of forecast improvement on the 5 day operational forecast. Despite the success in the mid troposphere to lower stratosphere, a reduction in sensitivity and accuracy has been seen in these systems in the boundary layer over land. In this paper we demonstrate the potential improvement associated with higher spatial resolution (1 km vs currently 13.5 km) on the accuracy of boundary layer products with an added consequence of higher yield of cloud free scenes. This latter feature is related to the number of samples that can be assimilated and has also shown to have a significant impact on improving forecast accuracy. We also present a set of frequencies and resolutions that will improve vertical resolution of temperature and water vapor and trace gas species throughout the atmosphere. Development of an Advanced Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Sounder (ALS) with these improvements will improve weather forecast at the regional scale and of tropical storms and hurricanes. Improvements are also expected in the accuracy of the water vapor and cloud properties products, enhancing process studies and providing a better match to the resolution of future climate models. The improvements of technology required for the ALS are consistent with the current state of technology as demonstrated in NASA Instrument Incubator Program and NOAA's Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES) formulation phase development programs.

temperature↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving coastal water level estimation by merging nadir-only satellite altimetry data into a hydrodynamic model

Providing robust real time flood warnings is of paramount importance to coastal communities. Although state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models are capable of robustly predicting Coastal Water Levels (CWL), unresolved drivers affecting level fluctuations are often not represented by the model governing equations. This work evaluates a novel method to improve the performance of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model by assimilating observations from four nadir-only satellite altimetry missions against a set of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gauge stations located across the entire U.S. East Coast. Two different types of simulations were performed – Open Loop (OL) and Data Assimilation (DA). Five different simulations were performed where four different satellite altimetry observations were assimilated individually and combined with two different scenarios – with and without considering the data quality flags. Results indicate that, despite their limited spatial coverage, merging nadir-only observations into ADCIRC from the newly launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT)’s nadir altimeter can improve the model performance at 76% of the gauge locations, whereas Sentinel-6 improves 73% of the total locations, Jason-3 74%, and SARAL 21%. Furthermore, combining observations from SWOT-nadir, Jason-3, and Sentinel-6 can improve the ADCIRC performance at more than 80% of the gauge locations for 107-day simulation. Nadir-only satellite altimetry observations can be useful for improving the model performance even if flagged as “poor quality” near the coast. When the flagged data are disregarded, SWOT can improve ADCIRC at 78%, Sentinel-6 at 73%, Jason-3 at 53%, and SARAL at 21% of the gauge locations. The ability to improve the model simulations largely depends on the availability of a satellite overpass nearby. Therefore, model performance can be further enhanced if satellite observations are available during a storm surge event, stressing the importance of frequent satellite overpasses.

Aafnan Bhuiyan, Soelem↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oxygen stress mitigation for microalgal biomass productivity improvement in outdoor raceway ponds

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations at supersaturated levels are commonly observed in outdoor microalgae cultures due to photosynthesis during periods of rapid growth. Paradoxically, the photosynthetically generated oxygen is inhibitory and lowers biomass productivity, therefore, increasing the cost of microalgal biofuels. In this study, photosynthetic rates of Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM and Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393, two of the top DISCOVR strains, were compared at three DO levels, 0, 8, and 30 mg L -1 . Increasing DO from 0 to 30 mg L -1 caused a 36.6% and 26.1% reduction in photosynthetic rate for M. minutum 26B-AM and S. obliquus UTEX393, respectively. To improve the outdoor pond biomass productivity of each strain, three oxygen stress mitigation methods were tested. The first method raised the dissolved bicarbonate concentration by an order of magnitude to favor bicarbonate transport into the cell, increasing the CO 2 :O 2 ratio near RuBisCO, thus reducing photorespiration. Although this method increased the observed photosynthesis rate of M. minutum 26B-AM by 26% and S. obliquus UTEX393 by 13% in laboratory testing, it failed to improve biomass productivity under outdoor pond conditions for both strains. The second method added sodium sulfite as an oxygen scavenger to chemically lower the DO concentration in the culture. Chemical reduction of dissolved molecular oxygen did not significantly improve the biomass productivity of M. minutum 26B-AM; however, a 10% improvement in biomass productivity for S. obliquus UTEX393 was observed. The final method sparged cultures with air to strip oxygen out of the liquid medium. This did not improve the biomass productivity of M. minutum 26B-AM, likely due to unfavorable weather conditions during cold season cultivation; however, an improvement of 36% in biomass productivity was achieved for S. obliquus UTEX393 during the warm season cultivation. Of the three tested methods, air-sparging was the most effective and practical for improving outdoor biomass production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Anticipated Improvements in Precipitation Physics and Understanding of Water Cycle from GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late-2007 to early-2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycles. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood/draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation s orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. GPM is organized internationally, involving existing, pending, projected, and under-study partnerships which will link NASA and NOAA in the US, NASDA in Japan, ESA in Europe, ISRO in India, CNES in France, and possibly AS1 in Italy, KARI in South Korea, CSA in Canada, and AEB in Brazil. Additionally, the program is actively pursuing agreements with other international collaborators and domestic scientific agencies and institutions, as well as participation by individual scientists from academia, government, and the private sector to fulfill mission goals and to pave the way for what is expected to become an internationally-organized operational global precipitation observing system. Notably, the broad societal applications of GPM are reflected in the United Nation s identification of GPM as a foremost candidate for its Peaceful Uses of Space Program. An overview of the GPM mission design is given, followed by an explanation of its scientific agenda as an outgrowth of making improvements in rain retrieval accuracy, microphysics dexterity, sampling frequency, and global coverage. All of these improvements offer new means to observe variability in precipitation and water cycle fluxes and to achieve improved predictability of weather, climate, and hydrometeorology. Specifically, the scientific agenda of GPM has been designed to leverage the measurement improvements to improve prognostic model performance, particularly quantitative precipitation forecasting and its linked phenomena at short, intermediate, and extended time scales. The talk addresses how GPM measurements will enable better detection of accelerations and decelerations in regional and global water cycle processes and their relationship to climate variability, better impacts of precipitation data assimilation on numerical weather prediction and global climate reanalysis, and better performance from basin scale hydrometeorological models for short and long term flood-drought forecasting and seasonal fresh water resource assessment. These improvements become possible by using more accurate, more microphysically-centric, more frequent, and fully global precipitation observations to achieve better water budget closure and to provide more realistic forcing and assessment of prediction models.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Improved Surface Parameter Retrievals using AIRS/AMSU Data

The AIRS Science Team Version 5.0 retrieval algorithm became operational at the Goddard DAAC in July 2007 generating near real-time products from analysis of AIRS/AMSU sounding data. This algorithm contains many significant theoretical advances over the AIRS Science Team Version 4.0 retrieval algorithm used previously. Two very significant developments of Version 5 are: 1) the development and implementation of an improved Radiative Transfer Algorithm (RTA) which allows for accurate treatment of non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (non-LTE) effects on shortwave sounding channels; and 2) the development of methodology to obtain very accurate case by case product error estimates which are in turn used for quality control. These theoretical improvements taken together enabled a new methodology to be developed which further improves soundings in partially cloudy conditions. In this methodology, longwave C02 channel observations in the spectral region 700 cm(exp -1) to 750 cm(exp -1) are used exclusively for cloud clearing purposes, while shortwave C02 channels in the spectral region 2195 cm(exp -1) 2395 cm(exp -1) are used for temperature sounding purposes. This allows for accurate temperature soundings under more difficult cloud conditions. This paper further improves on the methodology used in Version 5 to derive surface skin temperature and surface spectral emissivity from AIRS/AMSU observations. Now, following the approach used to improve tropospheric temperature profiles, surface skin temperature is also derived using only shortwave window channels. This produces improved surface parameters, both day and night, compared to what was obtained in Version 5. These in turn result in improved boundary layer temperatures and retrieved total O3 burden.

Susskind, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lightning Reporting at 45th Weather Squadron: Recent Improvements

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) provides daily lightning reports to space launch customers at CCAFS/KSC. These reports are provided to assess the need to inspect the electronics of satellite payloads, space launch vehicles, and ground support equipment for induced current damage from nearby lightning strokes. The 45 WS has made several improvements to the lightning reports during 2008-2009. The 4DLSS, implemented in April 2008, provides all lightning strokes as opposed to just one stroke per flash as done by the previous system. The 45 WS discovered that the peak current was being truncated to the nearest kilo amp in the database used to generate the daily lightning reports, which led to an up to 4% underestimate in the peak current for average lightning. This error was corrected and led to elimination of this underestimate. The 45 WS and their mission partners developed lightning location error ellipses for 99% and 95% location accuracies tailored to each individual stroke and began providing them in the spring of 2009. The new procedure provides the distance from the point of interest to the best location of the stroke (the center of the error ellipse) and the distance to the closest edge of the ellipse. This information is now included in the lightning reports, along with the peak current of the stroke. The initial method of calculating the error ellipses could only be used during normal duty hours, i.e. not during nights, weekends, or holidays. This method was improved later to provide lightning reports in near real-time, 24/7. The calculation of the distance to the closest point on the ellipse was also significantly improved later. Other improvements were also implemented. A new method to calculate the probability of any nearby lightning stroke. being within any radius of any point of interest was developed and is being implemented. This may supersede the use of location error ellipses. The 45 WS is pursuing adding data from nine NLDN sensors into 4DLSS in real-time. This will overcome the problem of 4DLSS missing some of the strong local strokes. This will also improve the location accuracy, reduce the size and eccentricity of the location error ellipses, and reduce the probability of nearby strokes being inside the areas of interest when few of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. This will not reduce 4DLSS performance when most of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. Finally, several possible future improvements were discussed, especially for improving the peak current estimate and the error estimate for peak current, and upgrading the 4DLSS. Some possible approaches for both of these goals were discussed.

Finn, Frank C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Improvements in Cold-Plate Fabrication

Five improvements are reported in cold-plate fabrication. This cold plate is part of a thermal control system designed to serve on space missions. The first improvement is the merging of the end sheets of the cold plate with the face sheets of the structural honeycomb panel. The cold plate, which can be a brazed assembly, uses the honeycomb face sheet as its end sheet. Thus, when the honeycomb panel is fabricated, the face sheet that is used is already part of the cold plate. In addition to reducing weight, costs, and steps, the main benefit of this invention is that it creates a more structurally sound assembly. The second improvement involves incorporation of the header into the closure bar to pass the fluid to a lower layer. Conventional designs have used a separate header, which increases the geometry of the system. The improvement reduces the geometry, thus allowing the cold plate to fit into smaller area. The third improvement eliminates the need of hose, tube, or manifold to supply the cooling fluid externally. The external arrangement can be easily damaged and is vulnerable to leakage. The new arrangement incorporates an internal fluid transfer tube. This allows the fluid to pass from one cold plate to the other without any exposed external features. The fourth improvement eliminates separate fabrication of cold plate(s) and structural members followed by a process of attaching them to each other. Here, the structural member is made of material that can be brazed just as that of the cold plate. Now the structural member and the cold plate can be brazed at the same time, creating a monolithic unit, and thus a more structurally sound assembly. Finally, the fifth improvement is the elimination of an additional welding step that can damage the braze joints. A tube section, which is usually welded on after the braze process, is replaced with a more structurally sound configuration that can be brazed at the same time as the rest of the cold plate.

Zaffetti, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

damage assessment↗

NASA NTRS2019

Orion Heat Shield Manufacturing Producibility Improvements for the EM-1 Flight Test Program

This paper describes how the Orion program is incorporating improvements in the heat shield design and manufacturing processes reducing programmatic risk and ensuring crew safety in support of NASA’s Exploration Missions. The Orion program successfully completed the EFT-1 flight test in 2014 and is currently developing the EM-1 spacecraft to meet the test objectives of an orbital mission to the moon and return to earth in 2019. Lessons learned from the EFT-1 manufacturing and flight test experience are being incorporated into a wide variety of vehicle systems and manufacturing processes to reduce risk to the Orion missions and flight crew. A critical contributor to crew safety is the heat shield that protects the crew capsule during re-entry through the earth’s atmosphere for return from deep space. The first flight test vehicle, EFT-1, was manufactured and tested in the Neil Armstrong Operations and Checkout (O&C) facility at KSC to demonstrate early risk reduction including the functionality of the Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) for capsule safe return to earth. The approach for the EFT-1 heat shield utilized a low risk approach using Apollo heritage design and manufacturing processes using an Avcoat TPS ablator with a honeycomb substrate to provide a one piece heat shield to meet the mission re-entry heating environments. The manufacturing processes used honeycomb cell injection guns which were redeveloped from the Apollo Lunar Program processes to build the EFT-1 heat shield. The completed heat shield was transported across the country by aircraft to the O&C at KSC for installation onto the capsule. The EFT-1 heat shield successfully performed its mission and experienced ~80% of the re-entry velocity (50% heating rate) for a lunar return for an Exploration Mission. The second flight test vehicle is the EM-1 mission which will have additional flight systems installed to fly to the moon and return. Heat shield design and producibility improvements have been incorporated in the EM-1 vehicle to meet deep space mission and programmatic requirements. The design continues to use the Avcoat material, but in a “block” configuration to enable improvements in the application processes as well as additional improvements in the carrier structure design and manufacturing operations. Incorporating flight test results and producibility improvements from EFT-1 for the heat shield system design and processes have improved the thermal protection capability, improved the producibility, and cost for EM-1 flight test.

Producibility↗

NASA NTRS2022

Cross-Cutting Flight Infrastructure Improvements on M2020

Mars2020 (M2020) was formulated as a mission that leveraged as much Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) heritage as possible, while focusing major new development efforts on the original and unique elements needed to accomplish the different mission objectives. Well publicized examples of high profile new developments include precision landing, the sampling and caching system, the specific instrument suite, improved mobility via Autonomous Navigation, and later the addition of the Ingenuity helicopter. Less well known are the refinements to the core flight infrastructure, primarily in the cross-cutting functions of Telecom, Avionics, Data Management, Communications Behaviors, and Parameter Management. These enhancements are introduced predominately via flight software, and represent increases in capability that justified their inclusion in an otherwise heritage-focused project environment.Perseverance’s cross-cutting flight infrastructure improvements fall into and across the following five categories. First is a trimming of the software footprint of infrastructure modules, in order to make room for memory demands elsewhere in the system. Second is the minimization of data volume to be downlinked, through various methods such as the incorporation of new compression options. Third is the maximization of the available downlink bandwidth for data, by curtailing content-less data (fill) and introducing an improved UHF proximity link protocol. Fourth is a reduction in vulnerabilities, through increased file system redundancy, robustness, and software process monitoring. Fifth is an increase in operations efficiency by lowering file system mount times, improving parallelism between simultaneous events, minimizing the time to recover from file system errors, streamlining the purging of obsolete data, and reducing the number of commands to service parameters by a factor of 100.Individually, none of the cross-cutting infrastructure improvements are likely to garner headlines, but collectively they appreciably improve the safety and operability of Perseverance over its predecessor. This paper will describe the improvements, their promise, and where applicable, their actual impact in operations.

Bohannon, Emily↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Ocean Reanalyses and ENSO Forecasts By Assimilation of Rain-Corrected Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Using the GMOA S2s Forecast System

The ENSO phenomenon has a significant global socio-economic impact and has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of satellite altimetry and subsurface temperature and salinity from (mostly) Argo help improve the initialization of the thermocline, while satellite SST aids in constraining surface heat-fluxes, leading to improved coupled system sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts. However, few studies have focused on improving the near-surface density and mixing through satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) assimilation. The few ocean models that assimilate satellite SSS, bias correct to normalize towards the near-surface Argo data for expediency. This assumption is likely inadequate in rainy regions, where buoyant water forms a fresh surface lens. In previous work, we showed that adjusting SSS to bulk salinity (Sb) using the Rain Impact Model (RIM) of Santos-Garcia et al., 2014 improves the near-surface density and mixed layer depth, leading to deeper thermocline and improved NINO3.4 SST forecasts. We now utilize the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity rain-corrected (SMOS_RC) SSS, available in SMOS-CATDS products, to represent Sb more accurately at the first model layer (e.g., 5 m). Rather than a diffusivity model as RIM, SMOS_RC uses a statistical correction dependent on Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) rain rates, established on observed SMOS SSS decreases related to Sb in the presence of rain (Supply et al., 2020). For all experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis additionally assimilates SMOS SSS data as is, and a separate reanalysis assimilates SMOS_RC. We assess the impact on near-surface and subsurface dynamics by validating against observations and explore how SSS assimilation (SMOS vs SMOS_RC) impacts ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to Seasonal coupled forecast system (S2S-v3, Molod et al. 2020). We show that improved estimates of density and near-surface mixing led to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better ENSO forecasts. The increased SSS, resulting from the removal of the instantaneous rain effect, modifies the ocean state by enhancing mixing and deepening the thermocline.

Veronica Ruiz Xomchuk↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Ocean Reanalyses and ENSO Forecasts By Assimilation of Rain Corrected Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Using the GMAO S2S Forecast System

During the past years, we have seen that the La Nina to El Nino transition has had a significant global socio-economic impact and so has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of satellite altimetry and subsurface temperature and salinity from (mostly) Argo help to improve the initialization of the thermocline, while satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) aids in constraining surface heat-fluxes, leading to improved subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of the coupled system. However, few studies have focused on improving the fresh-water flux and near-surface density and mixing through assimilation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS). For expediency, the few ocean models that do assimilate SSS bias-correct the satellite SSS data to normalize towards the near-surface Argo data. However, in rainy regions, where buoyant water sits as a fresh lens at the surface, this assumption is likely inadequate. In previous work, we have shown that adjusting SSS data to bulk salinity (Sb) using the Rain Impact Model (RIM) of Santos-Garcia et al., 2014 has improved the near-surface density and mixed layer depth, leading to deeper thermocline and improved the NINO3.4 SST forecasts. Now we utilize the Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity, Rain Corrected (SMOS_RC) SSS product provided by the Centre Aval de Traitement des données SMOS (CATDS CPDC) to represent the Sb more accurately at first model layer (in our case 5 m). Rather than using a diffusivity model as with RIM, SMOS_RC relies on an observed relationship between the spatial heterogeneity of SMOS SSS and instantaneous rain rate (RR) (Supply et al., 2020). In order to test the impact of SMOS_RC versus SMOS, we compare two reanalyses over the period 2014 to 2021. For both reanalysis experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis additionally assimilates SMOS SSS data as is (i.e., with the fresh bias), and a separate reanalysis is performed assimilating the SMOS_RC data. We assess the impact for near-surface and subsurface dynamics within ocean reanalyses by validating against observations and explore how SSS assimilation (SMOS versus SMOS_RC) impacts dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to Seasonal coupled forecast system (GEOS S2S-3, Molod et al., 2020, Hackert et al., 2023). We will show that improved SSS estimates and near-surface density and mixing led to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better ENSO forecasts.

Eric Hackert↗

DOE OSTI2025

Better Climate Challenge Working Groups Non-Energy Benefits of Energy Projects-Improving Financial Payback

Energy efficiency is a key strategy recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. For manufacturing companies, improving energy efficiency will reduce money spent on energy utilities such as gas, electricity, and oil. Energy improvement projects also provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, such as reducing the carbon footprint, improving safety metrics and even enhancing quality and productivity. Unfortunately, energy efficiency projects have typically faced an adoption gap, even when they meet criteria such as payback period for capital projects. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs), also known as co-benefits, in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback periods for those projects as well as potentially improve the company's key performance metrics aligned with business strategies. There are no readily available tools that facilitate this, however, and the most used tools for energy audits address NEBs in a perfunctory way if at all. We integrated research for finding and quantifying non-energy benefits of energy efficiency projects into a commonly recognized continuous improvement practice, the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control (DMAIC) Process. This process, along with software and supplemental materials, guides energy assessments to find and to quantify NEBs associated with energy conservation opportunities. Our aim is to deliver an easy to use and effective process and software tool and to maximize return on investment for energy efficiency projects as well as contribute to companies' strategic performance goals.

DMAIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projection-to-Born-improved subtractions at NNLO

While the current frontier in fixed-order precision for collider observables is N 3 LO, important steps are necessary to consolidate NNLO cross-section predictions with improved stability and efficiency. Slicing methods have been successfully applied to obtain NNLO and N 3 LO predictions, but have shown poor performance in the presence of fiducial cuts due to large kinematical power corrections. In this paper we implement Projection-to-Born-improved q T (P2B q T ) and jettiness (P2Bτ 0 ) subtractions for a large class of color singlet processes in MCFM. This method allows for the efficient evaluation of fiducial power corrections in any non-local subtraction scheme using a Projection-to-Born subtraction. We demonstrate the significant numerical improvements of this method based on fiducial Drell-Yan and Higgs cross-sections. Moreover, with fiducial power corrections removed via this method, the leading-logarithmic power corrections that have only been calculated without fiducial cuts can be included, further improving the calculations. For di-photon production with photon isolation, we devise a novel method in combination with P2B-improved subtractions, which we name P2B γ τ 0 , and P2B γ q T for the two subtraction schemes, respectively. This method allows the inclusion of both fiducial power corrections due to kinematic cuts on the photons and a set of isolation power corrections in the fragmentation channel where a quark may enter the isolation cone. We find significant improvements in the convergence of NNLO di-photon cross-sections with photon isolation cuts, demonstrating that it is possible to achieve a stable and efficient calculation of di-photon cross-sections using slicing methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗