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DOE OSTI2025

Real Space Imaging of Field-Driven Decision-Making in Nanomagnetic Galton Boards

A possible spintronic route to hardware implementation for decision-making involves injecting a domain wall into a bifurcated magnetic nanostrip resembling a Y-shaped junction. A decision is made when the domain wall chooses a particular path through the bifurcation. Recently, it was shown that a structure like a nanomagnetic Galton board, which is essentially an array of interconnected Y-shaped junctions, produces outcomes that are stochastic and therefore relevant to artificial neural networks. However, the exact mechanism leading to the robust nature of randomness is unknown. Here, in this study, we directly image the decision-making process in nanomagnetic Galton boards using Lorentz transmission electron microscopy. We identify that the stochasticity in nanomagnetic Galton boards arises as a culmination of (1) the topology of the injected domain wall, (2) dissimilarly sized vertices, and (3) the strength of the applied field. Our results pave the way to a detailed understanding of stochasticity in nanomagnetic networks.

lorentz microscopy↗

NASA NTRS2005

Model Checking Real Time Java Using Java PathFinder

The Real Time Specification for Java (RTSJ) is an augmentation of Java for real time applications of various degrees of hardness. The central features of RTSJ are real time threads; user defined schedulers; asynchronous events, handlers, and control transfers; a priority inheritance based default scheduler; non-heap memory areas such as immortal and scoped, and non-heap real time threads whose execution is not impeded by garbage collection. The Robust Software Systems group at NASA Ames Research Center has JAVA PATHFINDER (JPF) under development, a Java model checker. JPF at its core is a state exploring JVM which can examine alternative paths in a Java program (e.g., via backtracking) by trying all nondeterministic choices, including thread scheduling order. This paper describes our implementation of an RTSJ profile (subset) in JPF, including requirements, design decisions, and current implementation status. Two examples are analyzed: jobs on a multiprogramming operating system, and a complex resource contention example involving autonomous vehicles crossing an intersection. The utility of JPF in finding logic and timing errors is illustrated, and the remaining challenges in supporting all of RTSJ are assessed.

Lindstrom, Gary↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

NASA NTRS1988

A knowledge-based decision support system for payload scheduling

The role that artificial intelligence/expert systems technologies play in the development and implementation of effective decision support systems is illustrated. A recently developed prototype system for supporting the scheduling of subsystems and payloads/experiments for NASA's Space Station program is presented and serves to highlight various concepts. The potential integration of knowledge based systems and decision support systems which has been proposed in several recent articles and presentations is illustrated.

Floyd, Stephen↗

NASA NTRS1991

Single-chip microcontrollers for switchgear control

A switchgear controller utilizing a microcontroller is described. The primary goal was to mimic the functions and performance of the generic controller board with a microcontroller board which will cause the power automation system to consume less power. The code for the microcontroller implementation on a development board has been developed, and the signal conditioning for the signals to the microcontroller has been designed and tested. The implementation of this decision system for data gathering, command control, fault detection, and circuit protection, when compared to other implementations, provides more functions and better response while reducing weight, volume, and power consumption.

Watson, Karan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detecting damaged buildings using real-time crowdsourced images and transfer learning

After significant earthquakes, we can see images posted on social media platforms by individuals and media agencies owing to the mass usage of smartphones these days. These images can be utilized to provide information about the shaking damage in the earthquake region both to the public and research community, and potentially to guide rescue work. This paper presents an automated way to extract the damaged buildings images after earthquakes from social media platforms such as Twitter and thus identify the particular user posts containing such images. Using transfer learning and ~ 6500 manually labelled images, we trained a deep learning model to recognize images with damaged buildings in the scene. The trained model achieved good performance when tested on newly acquired images of earthquakes at different locations and when ran in near real-time on Twitter feed after the 2020 M7.0 earthquake in Turkey. Furthermore, to better understand how the model makes decisions, we also implemented the Grad-CAM method to visualize the important regions on the images that facilitate the decision.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Fuzzy sets, rough sets, and modeling evidence: Theory and Application. A Dempster-Shafer based approach to compromise decision making with multiattributes applied to product selection

The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is applied to a multiattribute decision making problem whereby the decision maker (DM) must compromise with available alternatives, none of which exactly satisfies his ideal. The decision mechanism is constrained by the uncertainty inherent in the determination of the relative importance of each attribute element and the classification of existing alternatives. The classification of alternatives is addressed through expert evaluation of the degree to which each element is contained in each available alternative. The relative importance of each attribute element is determined through pairwise comparisons of the elements by the decision maker and implementation of a ratio scale quantification method. Then the 'belief' and 'plausibility' that an alternative will satisfy the decision maker's ideal are calculated and combined to rank order the available alternatives. Application to the problem of selecting computer software is given.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Making Human Spaceflight Practical and Affordable: Spacecraft Designs and their Degree of Operability

As we push toward new and diverse space transportation capabilities, reduction in operations cost becomes increasingly important. Achieving affordable and safe human spaceflight capabilities will be the mark of success for new programs and new providers. The ability to perceive the operational implications of design decisions is crucial in developing safe yet cost competitive space transportation systems. Any human spaceflight program - government or commercial - must make countless decisions either to implement spacecraft system capabilities or adopt operational constraints or workarounds to account for the lack of such spacecraft capabilities. These decisions can benefit from the collective experience that NASA has accumulated in building and operating crewed spacecraft over the last five decades. This paper reviews NASA s history in developing and operating human rated spacecraft, reviewing the key aspects of spacecraft design and their resultant impacts on operations phase complexity and cost. Specific examples from current and past programs - including the Space Shuttle and International Space Station - are provided to illustrate design traits that either increase or increase cost and complexity associated with spacecraft operations. These examples address factors such as overall design performance margins, levels of redundancy, degree of automated failure response, type and quantity of command and telemetry interfaces, and the definition of reference scenarios for analysis and test. Each example - from early program requirements, design implementation and resulting real-time operations experience - to tell the end-to-end "story" Based on these experiences, specific techniques are recommended to enable earlier and more effective assessment of operations concerns during the design process. A formal method for the assessment of spacecraft operability is defined and results of such operability assessments for recent spacecraft designs are provided. Recent experience in applying these techniques to Orion spacecraft development is reviewed to highlight the direct benefits of early operational assessment and collaborative development efforts.

Crocker, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Soft Decision Analyzer

Lansdowne, Chatwin↗

NASA NTRS2007

Sensor Networking Testbed with IEEE 1451 Compatibility and Network Performance Monitoring

Design and implementation of a testbed for testing and verifying IEEE 1451-compatible sensor systems with network performance monitoring is of significant importance. The performance parameters measurement as well as decision support systems implementation will enhance the understanding of sensor systems with plug-and-play capabilities. The paper will present the design aspects for such a testbed environment under development at University of Houston in collaboration with NASA Stennis Space Center - SSST (Smart Sensor System Testbed).

Gurkan, Deniz↗

NASA NTRS2005

Results from the NASA Capability Roadmap Team for In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU)

On January 14, 2004, the President of the United States unveiled a new vision for robotic and human exploration of space entitled, "A Renewed Spirit of Discovery". As stated by the President in the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE), NASA must "... implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond " and ".. .develop new technologies and harness the moon's abundant resources to allow manned exploration of more challenging environments." A key to fulfilling the goal of sustained and affordable human and robotic exploration will be the ability to use resources that are available at the site of exploration to "live off the land" instead of bringing everything from Earth, known as In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU can significantly reduce the mass, cost, and risk of exploration through capabilities such as: mission consumable production (propellants, fuel cell reagents, life support consumables, and feedstock for manufacturing & construction); surface construction (radiation shields, landing pads, walls, habitats, etc.); manufacturing and repair with in-situ resources (spare parts, wires, trusses, integrated systems etc.); and space utilities and power from space resources. On January 27th, 2004 the President's Commission on Implementation of U.S. Space Exploration Policy (Aldridge Committee) was created and its final report was released in June 2004. One of the report's recommendations was to establish special project teams to evaluate enabling technologies, of which "Planetary in situ resource utilization" was one of them. Based on the VSE and the commission's final report, NASA established fifteen Capability Roadmap teams, of which ISRU was one of the teams established. From Oct. 2004 to May 2005 the ISRU Capability Roadmap team examined the capabilities, benefits, architecture and mission implementation strategy, critical decisions, current state-of-the-art (SOA), challenges, technology gaps, and risks of ISRU for future human Moon and Mars exploration. This presentation will provide an overview of the ISRU capability, architecture, and implementation strategy examined by the ISRU Capability Roadmap team, along with a top-level review of ISRU benefits, resources and products of interest, and the current SOA in ISRU processes and systems. The presentation will also highlight the challenges of incorporating ISRU into future missions and the gaps in technologies and capabilities that need to be filled to enable ISRU.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analytical Framework for Homeowner-Focused Computational Cost-Benefit Mitigation Decision Making

As a result of increasing windstorm losses in the United States over the past 50 years, a variety of residential wind hazard mitigation strategies have been recommended. Wind hazard mitigation undoubtedly reduces windstorm losses; however, little customized information is available to support the economic decision-making process for individual stakeholders, especially at the consumer level. Therefore, there is a need for decision support tools to calculate, evaluate, and present the economic benefits of mitigation over variable decision-making time horizons for unique building characteristics in specific geographical locations. This paper presents a cost-benefit computational decision-making recommendation framework that evaluates and presents the cost effectiveness of mitigation, customized based on location, years of interest, and building characteristics. The decision-making framework consists of two cores. The user-independent core and user-dependent core which consists of eight steps, divided into four subprocesses: (1) data acquisition, (2) data evaluation, (3) cost-benefit calculation, and (4) results comparison and decision making. To demonstrate the framework, a wood-framed single-family home in light suburban terrain in Golden Meadow, Louisiana, is used as a case study, considering retrofit mitigation with a $15,000 budget and a decision-making time horizon of 30 years. The case study provides six mitigation options, with cost ranging between approximately $2,000 and $15,000 and net benefit/cost ratios ranging from 2.4 to 13. Once fully implemented in a decision making information tool, the developed mitigation recommendation framework will provide valuable information that can be used by home designers, builders, owners, and other stakeholders to better understand the economic facets of wind hazard mitigation, providing critical information as part of the overall decision-making process.

Orooji, Fatemeh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Observatory Implementation and Challenges

NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) is a deep space infrared observatory with a Hubble-sized telescope and wide field of regard with a boresight view greater than 200 times that of the Hubble Wide Field Camera 3infrared field of view, that will conduct a suite of science surveys to characterize dark energy and expand the census of exoplanets in our galaxy. Roman will also demonstrate exoplanet coronagraphy with active wavefront control technology and provide general investigator opportunities for the science community. Roman is finishing the critical design phase and is planning for launch in 2026. It will operate at the second Sun-Earth-Moon Lagrange for a five-year primary mission life. The Observatory features a telescope with an existing, repurposed 2.4m primary mirror, a Wide Field Instrument with a near-infrared detector focal plane array and optical elements for imaging and spectroscopy, as well as a Coronagraph instrument technology demonstration for direct imaging and spectroscopy of exoplanets. The telescope and instruments are mounted to an Instrument Carrier for optical metering and isolation from Spacecraft-induced disturbances. The Spacecraft includes a Bus, Solar Array Sunshield, Deployable Aperture Cover, Outer Barrel Assembly, and Star Tracker/Inertial Reference Unit Bench. When fully integrated, Roman will be the largest Observatory assembled and tested at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The development of scientific satellites is challenging and pushes engineering boundaries to broaden scientific knowledge. The Roman mission implementation is a prime example and expected challenges have been amplified by the foundational decision to use existing, repurposed telescope components. Other unique aspects of the Roman mission, including its survey nature, large data volume, and Observatory packaging, create constrained design spaces that drive competing requirements across Observatory subsystems. Given these challenges, systems engineering has been a critical discipline in balancing implementation decisions and will continue to play a key role in the development of the Roman mission. This paper will discuss details of the Roman Observatory configuration, systems engineering challenges and the decision-making process used to mature the Roman Space Telescope from preliminary design to implementation.

Lisa M L Bartusek↗

NASA NTRS1974

A computer simulation of Skylab dynamics and attitude control for performance verification and operational support

A simulation of the Skylab attitude and pointing control system (APCS) is outlined and discussed. Implementation is via a large hybrid computer and includes those factors affecting system momentum management, propellant consumption, and overall vehicle performance. The important features of the flight system are discussed; the mathematical models necessary for this treatment are outlined; and the decisions involved in implementation are discussed. A brief summary of the goals and capabilities of this tool is also included.

Buchanan, H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ethical considerations in infectious disease modelling for public health policy: the case of school closures

Mathematical models of infectious diseases are frequently used as a tool to support public health policy and decisions around the implementation of interventions such as school closures. However, most publications on policy-relevant modelling lack an ethical framework and do not explicitly consider the ethical implications of the work. This creates a risk that the unintended consequences of interventions are overlooked or that models are used to justify decisions that are inconsistent with public health ethics. In this article, we focus on the case study of school closures as a commonly modelled intervention against pandemic influenza, COVID-19 and other infectious disease threats. We briefly review some of the key concepts in public health ethics and describe approaches to modelling the effects of school closures. We then identify a series of ethical considerations involved in modelling school closures. These include accounting for population heterogeneity and inequalities; including a diversity of viewpoints and expertise in model design; considering the distribution of benefits and harms; and model transparency and contextualization. Furthermore, we conclude with some recommendations to ensure that policy-relevant modelling is consistent with some key ethics values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Rapidly Prototyped Vegetation Dryness Index Evaluated for Wildfire Risk Assessment at Stennis Space Center

MVDI, which effectively involves the differencing of NDMI and NDVI, appears to display increased noise that is consistent with a differencing technique. This effect masks finer variations in vegetation moisture, preventing MVDI from fulfilling the requirement of giving decision makers insight into spatial variation of fire risk. MVDI shows dependencies on land cover and phenology which also argue against its use as a fire risk proxy in an area of diverse and fragmented land covers. The conclusion of the rapid prototyping effort is that MVDI should not be implemented for SSC decision support.

Ross, Kenton↗