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DOE OSTI2024

Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model

A primary advantage to using reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) has been their ability to quickly conduct probabilistic climate projections, a key component of uncertainty quantification in many impact studies and multisector systems. Providing frameworks for such analyses has been a target of several RCMs used in studies of the future co-evolution of the human and Earth systems. In this paper, we present Matilda, an open-science R software package that facilitates probabilistic climate projection analysis, implemented here using the Hector simple climate model in a seamless and easily applied framework. The primary goal of Matilda is to provide the user with a turn-key method to build parameter sets from literature-based prior distributions, run Hector iteratively to produce perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), weight ensembles for realism against observed historical climate data, and compute probabilistic projections for different climate variables. This workflow gives the user the ability to explore viable parameter space and propagate uncertainty to model ensembles with just a few lines of code. The package provides significant freedom to select different scoring criteria and algorithms to weight ensemble members, as well as the flexibility to implement custom criteria. Additionally, the architecture of the package simplifies the process of building and analyzing PPEs without requiring significant programming expertise, to accommodate diverse use cases. We present a case study that provides illustrative results of a probabilistic analysis of mean global surface temperature as an example of the software application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

DARHT : Enduring Lessons from a Technical Project in a National Laboratory Context [Slides]

The Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is the world’s first flash x-ray facility able to take multiple high-resolution radiographs of the interior features of fast-moving dense objects during a single experiment. DARHT’s radiography and complimentary diagnostics makes it an important diagnostic tool in support of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)’s stewardship of the US nuclear deterrent. The project to construct DARHT ran from 1988 through 2003. Initial Operating Capability along a single axis began in 1999. A technical issue delayed Critical Decision 4 for the full dual-axis capability until 2008. DARHT was characterized by several directed changes resulting from an environmental impact study, changes to the global security context resulting from the end of underground nuclear testing, and rapid evolution of applicable technology. Conventional building and lab-space construction were part of the project, but the project was dominated by Special Facility Equipment that, together with the mission to support the nuclear weapons program, required the project to be completed by national laboratories. Although the project pre-dated implementation of DOE Order 413.3, several important lessons for national laboratory projects remain applicable today and will be discussed here, including projects appropriate for the national laboratory environment, scope stability, risk acceptance and mitigation, communication, and collaboration. Finally, considerations for DOE contractor project managers are offered based upon the DARHT experience.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generator Interconnection Cost Analysis in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) territory

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data from interconnection studies for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), representing nearly 50% of all projects requesting interconnection from 2010 to 2020. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Average interconnection costs have grown as the number of interconnection requests have escalated -Projects that have completed all required interconnection studies have the lowest cost compared to applicants still actively working through the interconnection process or those that have withdrawn. -Broader network upgrade costs are the primary driver of recent cost increase. -Potential interconnection costs for wind, storage, and solar are larger than for natural gas -Larger generators have greater interconnection costs in absolute terms, but economies of scale exist on a per kW basis. -Interconnection costs vary by location Berkeley Lab will publish a series of short analytical papers of generator interconnection costs to the transmission system for MISO, PJM, SPP, ISO-NE and NYISO, which you can find at https://emp.lbl.gov/interconnection_costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modular HF Isolated MV String Inverters Enable a New Paradigm for Large PV Farms

The “Modular HF Isolated MV String Inverters Enable a New Paradigm for Large PV Farms” project focuses on exploring alternative power converter and system-level plant configurations to achieve the lowest cost and highest energy output for a given solar plus storage (e.g., PV + battery) plant, including the use of medium voltage (MV) collection while taking into account detailed models of all elements. To realize this objective, four approaches were utilized (i) employ a novel Medium Voltage String Inverter (MVSI) topology (soft switching solid state transformer – S4T) to convert 1000 Vdc to 4.16 kVac; (ii) plant collection using standard, low-cost overhead MV distribution network; (iii) enable energy storage integration without additional converter cost to achieve dispatchability of the PV resource; and (iv) provide advanced functionality (autonomous operation, track ISO signals for dynamic balancing and ancillary services, and PV farm operation as a virtual grid resource). Subsequently and in alignment with the previously mentioned approaches, the project was structured in five efforts (i) S4T MVSI simulation and design; (ii) system analysis and storage optimization; (iii) financial analysis; (iv) power converter prototype build and test; and (v) regulatory and commercial impact study. The outcomes provided by each effort can be summarized as follows (i) Project explored the use of MV AC distribution architecture for hybrid PV+storage utility-scale PV farms; (ii) Detailed loss and LCOE analysis for AC and DC side BESS architecture, including multiple converter topologies, as well as for proposed MVSI/MDCT systems; (iii) MVSI was built and holds promise but needs lower-cost high-voltage Si-C devices, which does not seem possible in the near term; (iv) MDCT provides a simpler modular building block – validated through HIL and farm level modeling, simulation and experimental validation; (v) 300 kVA MDCT prototype built and tested, technology is being commercialized; and (vi) Regulatory model of utility building PV plants, where PV panels are treated as DC generation (IPP), seems viable and can allow improved grid integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interconnection Cost Analysis in the PJM Territory

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data from interconnection studies for the PJM Territory, representing nearly 86% of all new unique generators requesting interconnection from 2000 to 2022. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Average interconnection costs have grown as the number of interconnection requests have escalated -Projects that have completed all required interconnection studies have the lowest cost compared to applicants still actively working through the interconnection process or those that have withdrawn. -Broader network upgrade costs are the primary driver of recent cost increase. -Potential interconnection costs for wind, storage, and solar are larger than for natural gas -Larger generators have greater interconnection costs in absolute terms, but economies of scale exist on a per kW basis. -Interconnection costs vary by location Berkeley Lab will publish a series of short analytical papers of generator interconnection costs to the transmission system for MISO, PJM, SPP, ISO-NE and NYISO, which you can find at https://emp.lbl.gov/interconnection_costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generator Interconnection Cost Analysis in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) Territory

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data for 845 projects from interconnection studies for the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) Territory. The studies were performed between 2002 and 2023 and include all of the most refined cost estimates available. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Project-specific interconnection costs can differ widely. -Average interconnection costs are stable for projects that complete all interconnection studies but have escalated for those that withdraw. -Broader network upgrade costs are the primary driver of recent cost increases, especially for withdrawn projects. -Potential interconnection costs of all solar and wind requests have been greater than those of storage and natural gas projects. -Economies of scale exist for completed wind and solar projects but not for other fuel types or withdrawn projects. -Interconnection costs vary by location. Berkeley Lab publishes a series of short analytical papers of generator interconnection costs to the transmission system for MISO, PJM, SPP, ISO-NE and NYISO, which you can find at https://emp.lbl.gov/interconnection_costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interconnection Cost Analysis in ISO-New England

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data for 194 projects in New England from interconnection studies performed between 2010 and 2021. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Interconnection costs have grown over time, especially for projects that withdraw. -Interconnection costs are highest for onshore wind, followed by solar and storage. Natural gas and offshore wind projects tend to cost less to interconnect, in comparison. -Economies of scale exist for solar and possibly storage projects, but not for other resource types. -Wind and solar projects requesting capacity network resource interconnection service have higher interconnection costs, despite being evaluated using the same interconnection standard in the analyzed studies. -Low and high interconnection costs can be found throughout the ISO-NE footprint. -Costs are split fairly evenly between investments at the point of interconnection and within the broader network for active and withdrawn projects, while complete projects incur most costs at the point of interconnection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Queued Up: 2024 Edition, Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2023 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require projects seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. The amount of new electric capacity in these queues is growing dramatically, with nearly 2,600 gigawatts (GW) of total generation and storage capacity now seeking connection to the grid (over 95% of which is for zero-carbon resources like solar, wind, and battery storage). However, most projects that apply for interconnection are ultimately withdrawn, and those that are built are taking longer on average to complete the required studies and become operational. Data from these queues nonetheless provide a general indicator for mid-term trends in developer interest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ESMs Latent Space Exploration for Uncertainty Quantification and Spatiotemporal Downscaling

This final report for DOE Award DE-SC0023044 presents advances in two key areas of climate modeling: (1) representative climate model selection and (2) Earth System Model (ESM) downscaling using hybrid AI methods. The first section introduces a reordered, three-stage workflow to select representative GCM runs that more effectively balance historical skill with ensemble spread, validated across Texas, Bihar, and New York. The second section introduces two novel super-resolution frameworks, ViSIR and ViFOR, that integrate Vision Transformers with sinusoidal and Fourier-based implicit neural representations. These models achieve state-of-the-art reconstruction accuracy for ESM variables including surface temperature and heat fluxes. The report includes detailed methodology, benchmarks, and results, demonstrating significant gains in uncertainty quantification, spatial fidelity, and scalability for climate-impact studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting EV Charging Demand on the Distribution System

The U.S. transportation and electricity sectors have historically operated independently, but the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) is driving their convergence. After decades of stagnant demand, utilities must prepare for rising load growth, driven in part by transportation electrification. Utilities must anticipate when and where these new loads will materialize to effectively manage EV growth and maintain grid reliability. This presentation outlines NREL's approach to developing high-resolution EV load datasets for distribution planning, with insights from the Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study on EV and load forecasting, infrastructure requirements, and managed charging strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Protection of Inverter-Dependent Transmission Systems (PROTECT-IT)

This presentation highlights the overall objectives of the SETO funded protection project. The main technical approaches are also highlighted. This high impact project produces multiple innovative outcomes, including comprehensive impact study of how IBR affects protection elements, simplified low-order IBR model for protection engineers, enhanced and data-driven protection design, co-design concept for coordination protection and IBRs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Queued Up: 2026 Edition, Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2025 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require proposed power plants seeking to connect to the transmission grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. In collaboration with https://www.interconnection.fyi. Berkeley Lab compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection queue data from >50 transmission grid operators (7 ISO/RTOs and 50 non-ISO balancing areas), which collectively represent ~98% of currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey: Modeling strategy for multiprobe cluster cosmology and validation for the Full Six-year Dataset

We introduce an updated To&Krause2021 model for joint analyses of cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations of weak lensing and galaxy and cluster clustering (termed CL+3x2pt analysis) and validate that this model meets the systematic accuracy requirements of analyses with the statistical precision of the final Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 (Y6) dataset. The validation program consists of two distinct approaches, (1) identification of modeling and parameterization choices and impact studies using simulated analyses with each possible model misspecification (2) end-to-end validation using mock catalogs from customized Cardinal simulations that incorporate realistic galaxy populations and DES-Y6-specific galaxy and cluster selection and photometric redshift modeling, which are the key observational systematics. In combination, these validation tests indicate that the model presented here meets the accuracy requirements of DES-Y6 for CL+3x2pt based on a large list of tests for known systematics. In addition, we also validate that the model is sufficient for several other data combinations: the CL+GC subset of this data vector (excluding galaxy--galaxy lensing and cosmic shear two-point statistics) and the CL+3x2pt+BAO+SN (combination of CL+3x2pt with the previously published Y6 DES baryonic acoustic oscillation and Y5 supernovae data).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

SIDIS Unpolarized Cross Sections from a 3 He Target with the Solenoidal Large Intensity Device at JLab

In this paper we present a detailed impact study of semi-inclusive deep inelastic scattering unpolarized cross sections' measurements using the proposed SoLID apparatus at Jefferson Lab. This type of data, collected at large Bjorken x bj , moderate values of Q 2 and small values of the transverse momentum of produced hadrons, P hT , allows to study transverse momentum dependent (TMD) parton distribution and fragmentation functions in a still poorly explored region. We present the projected results for charged light mesons based on simulated data. For the azimuthal-angle integrated cross sections we adopt the TMD framework up to the next-to-next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy, while a simpler TMD parton model is employed for the study of azimuthal angular dependencies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7

Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Big Box Retail Grocery Store and Electric Vehicle Station Load Profiles

This dataset includes yearlong, one-minute resolution time series profiles for the big box retail grocery stores stores simulated in Phoenix, Houston, Denver, and Minneapolis, as well as electric vehicle charging time series profiles for the various ports, charging levels, and station utilizations produced for the study "Impact of electric vehicle charging on the power demand of retail buildings", published in 2021 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100062). Please cite as: Gilleran, M., Bonnema, E., Woods, J. et al. Impact of electric vehicle charging on the power demand of retail buildings. Advances in Applied Energy 4, (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100062

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Study of Financial Impacts of Pooled Rideshare Based on Assignment Strategies

This study explores the potential profitability of a pooled rideshare service in a simulation-based case study of two US metropolitan regions in the context of two fleet assignment strategies. A new method of obtaining more accurate fares is created to address scalability and accuracy assumptions relevant to pooling choice. Cases for private rideshare fleets, public mobility on demand offerings, and autonomous fleets are explored and analyzed. Two regions of differing types are explored to illustrate the impacts of geo-spatial demand density of profitability, with one region capturing a large urban and suburban environment and the second a less dense more compact small city. Results indicate that the cost of human drivers is prohibitively expensive, and regulation of driver pay extends the issue of financial viability. Despite these shortcomings, a more efficient rideshare assignment strategy is shown to increase profitability by as much as 60%. The smaller, more dense region was illustrated to experience a greater increase in profitability than the larger region when pooling was improved.

Paul, Joseph↗