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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Greenland and Canadian Arctic Ice Temperature Profiles Database

Here, we present a compilation of 95 ice temperature profiles from 85 boreholes from the Greenland ice sheet and peripheral ice caps, as well as local ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Profiles from only 31 boreholes (36 %) were previously available in open-access data repositories. The remaining 54 borehole profiles (64 %) are being made digitally available here for the first time. These newly available profiles, which are associated with pre-2010 boreholes, have been submitted by community members or digitized from published graphics and/or data tables. All 95 profiles are now made available in both absolute (meters) and normalized (0 to 1 ice thickness) depth scales and are accompanied by extensive metadata. These metadata include a transparent description of data provenance. The ice temperature profiles span 70 years, with the earliest profile being from 1950 at Camp VI, West Greenland. To highlight the value of this database in evaluating ice flow simulations, we compare the ice temperature profiles from the Greenland ice sheet with an ice flow simulation by the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). We find a cold bias in modeled near-surface ice temperatures within the ablation area, a warm bias in modeled basal ice temperatures at inland cold-bedded sites, and an apparent underestimation of deformational heating in high-strain settings. These biases provide process level insight on simulated ice temperatures.

Greenland↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Ice Plains of Filchner/Ronne Ice Shelf Using ICESat Data

We use repeat-track laser altimeter data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) to map the grounding zone of Filchner/Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica. Repeated passes of ICESat reveal ice flexure in the grounding zone occurs as the ice shelf responds to ocean height changes due primarily to tides. In the course of our mapping, we have confirmed or identified three major "ice plains", regions of low surface slope near the GZ where the ice is close to hydrostatic equilibrium: one on Institute Ice Stream, another to its east, and another west of Foundation Ice Stream. The vertical information from repeated ICESat tracks enables us to study the topography and flexure characteristics across these three ice plains, and we use this to develop a classification scheme for ice plains based on their surface topography and their state of flotation. We show that one of these ice plains indicates changes in lateral extent on short time-scales, depending on the state of the ocean tide. Understanding the location and nature of ice plains is important for ice sheet modeling, since they add uncertainty to the absolute boundary between floating and grounded ice.

Brunt, Kelly M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance

Abstract. Unambiguous identification of past episodes of ice sheet thinning below the modern surface and grounding line retreat inboard of present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Such efforts are needed to understand the significance and potential future reversibility of ongoing and projected change in Antarctica. Here we evaluate the suitability for subglacial bedrock drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, which are located in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. We use an ice sheet model and field data – geological observations, glaciological observations and bedrock samples from nunataks, and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges – to rate each site against four key criteria: (i) presence of ridges extending below the ice sheet, (ii) likelihood of increased exposure of those ridges if the grounding line was inboard of present, (iii) suitability of bedrock for drilling and geochemical analysis, and (iv) accessibility for aircraft and drilling operations. Our results demonstrate that although no site in the Hudson Mountains is perfect for this study when assessed against all criteria, the accessibility, N–S orientation and basaltic bedrock lithology of Winkie Nunatak's southernmost ridge (74.86° S, 99.77° W) make it a feasible site both for drilling and subsequent cosmogenic nuclide analysis. Furthermore, the ridge is strewn with glacial erratics at all elevations, providing valuable constraints on its early Holocene deglacial history. Based on our experiences during this study, we conclude with a series of recommendations for assessing site suitability for future bedrock drilling campaigns. We emphasise the importance of consulting a range of expertise prior to drilling and ensuring that sufficient field reconnaissance is undertaken (including obtaining detailed grids of radar survey data and bedrock samples).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Future Sea Level Change Under CMIP5 and CMIP6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Antarctica↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2022

Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi-Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change

Numerical, process-based simulations of tidewater glacier evolution are necessary to project future sea-level change under various climate scenarios. Previous work has shown that nonlinearities in tidewater glacier and ice stream dynamics can lead to biases in simulated ice mass change in the presence of noisy forcings. Ice sheet modeling projections that are used in the IPCC Assessment Report 6 (AR6) utilize atmospheric and oceanic forcings at annual temporal resolution, omitting any higher frequency forcings. Here, we quantify the effect of seasonal (<1 year) tidewater glacier terminus oscillations on decadal-scale (30 years) mass change. We use an idealized geometry to mimic realistic tidewater glacier geometries and investigate the impact of the magnitude of seasonal oscillations, bed slope at the glacier terminus, and basal friction law. We find that omitting seasonal terminus motion results in biased mass change projections, with up to an 39% underestimate or 25% overestimate of mass loss when seasonality is neglected, depending on bed slope and magnitude of oscillations. The bias is most sensitive to the magnitude of the seasonal terminus oscillations and exhibits very little sensitivity to choice of friction law. Although omitting seasonal terminus motion may bias mass change projections of individual glaciers, further work is needed to investigate the impact on ice sheet mass change projections. In order to achieve this, seasonality in atmospheric and oceanic forcings must be adequately represented and observations of seasonal terminus positions and tidewater glacier thickness changes must be acquired to evaluate numerical models. Note: Zip folder contains all videos listed in the supplemental document and can be downloaded for viewing.

D. Felikson↗
NASA NTRS2021

Challenges in predicting Greenland supraglacial lake drainages at the regional scale

A leading hypothesis for the mechanism of fast supraglacial lake drainages is that transient extensional stresses briefly allow crevassing in otherwise compressional ice flow regimes. Lake water can then hydrofracture a crevasse to the base of the ice sheet, and river inputs can maintain this connection as a moulin. If future ice sheet models are to accurately represent moulins, we must understand their formation processes, timescales, and locations. Here, we use remote-sensing velocity products to constrain the relationship between strain rates and lake drainages across ∼ 1600 ksq.m in Pâkitsoq, western Greenland, between 2002–2019. We find significantly more extensional background strain rates at moulins associated with fast-draining lakes than at slow-draining or non-draining lake moulins. We test whether moulins in more extensional background settings drain their lakes earlier, but we find insignificant correlation. To investigate the frequency at which strain-rate transients are associated with fast lake drainage, we examined Landsat-derived strain rates over 16 and 32 d periods at moulins associated with 240 fast-lake-drainage events over 18 years. A low signal-to-noise ratio, the presence of water, and the multi-week repeat cycle obscured any resolution of the hypothesized transient strain rates. Our results support the hypothesis that transient strain rates drive fast lake drainages. However, the current generation of ice sheet velocity products, even when stacked across hundreds of fast lake drainages, cannot resolve these transients. Thus, observational progress in understanding lake drainage initiation will rely on field-based tools such as GPS networks and photogrammetry.

Kristin Poinar↗
NASA NTRS1997

Balance Velocities of the Greenland Ice Sheet

We present a map of balance velocities for the Greenland ice sheet. The resolution of the underlying DEM, which was derived primarily from radar altimetry data, yields far greater detail than earlier balance velocity estimates for Greenland. The velocity contours reveal in striking detail the location of an ice stream in northeastern Greenland, which was only recently discovered using satellite imagery. Enhanced flow associated with all of the major outlets is clearly visible, although small errors in the source data result in less accurate estimates of the absolute flow speeds. Nevertheless, the balance map is useful for ice-sheet modelling, mass balance studies, and field planning.

Joughin, Ian↗
NASA NTRS2013

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improvements in Ice-Sheet Sea-Level Projections

Ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland are the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections. Nevertheless, improvements in ice-sheet models over recent decades have led to closer agreement with satellite observations, keeping track with their increasing contribution to global sea-level rise.

Shepherd, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2017

Use of CMIP Atmospheric Boundary Conditions with ISMs

Dynamical ice sheet models are being used in simulations of future sea level change resulting from changing glacier mass. One of the difficulties in doing so are the input conditions obtained from earth system models. These inputs can be of coarse spatial resolution, and may not represent surface melt in a future climate. I review various methods for overcoming this with the aim of promoting discussion among modelers.

Cullather, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2023

Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt-Albedo Feedbacks

The Greenland Ice Sheet is a leading contributor to global sea-level rise because climate warming has enhanced surface meltwater runoff. Melt rates are particularly sensitive to air temperatures due to feedbacks with albedo. The primary melt-albedo feedback, fluctuation of seasonal snowlines, however, is determined not only by melt but also by antecedent snowfall which could delay the onset of dark glacier ice exposure. Here we investigate the role of snowfall versus air temperatures on ice sheet melt-albedo feedbacks using satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data. We find several lines of evidence that snowline fluctuations are driven primarily by air temperatures and that snowfall is a secondary control. First, standardized linear regressions indicate that the timing of glacier ice exposure is nearly twice as sensitive to air temperatures than antecedent snowfall. Second, in 74% of the ablation zone by area, winter snowfall rates are not significantly correlated with winter air temperatures. This relationship implies that ice sheet melt due to climate warming is unlikely to be compensated by higher snowfall rates in the ablation zone. Third, we find no significant change in snowfall rates in the ablation zone during our 1981–2021 study period. Our findings demonstrate that snowfall is unlikely to reduce future ice sheet melt and that ice sheet meltwater runoff should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Although given the importance of melt-albedo feedbacks, ice sheet models that parameterize albedo or are coupled with regional climate models are likely to provide the most accurate projections of mass loss.

J. C. Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2000

Troughs on Martian Ice Sheets: Analysis of Their Closure and Mass Balance

At the Copenhagen workshop on Martian polar processes, Ralf Greve commented that the flow regime surrounding scarps and troughs of the Martian polar ice sheets cannot be modeled using traditional "plan view" ice-sheet models. Such models are inadequate because they typically use reduced equations that embody certain simplifications applicable only to terrestrial ice sheets where the upper ice sheet surface is smooth. In response to this suggestion, we have constructed a 2-dimensional, time dependent "side view" (two spatial dimensions: one horizontal, one vertical) model of scarp closure that is designed to overcome the difficulties described by Greve. The purpose of the model is to evaluate the scales of stress variation and styles of flow closure so as to estimate errors that may be encountered by "plan view" models. We show that there may be avenues whereby the complications associated with scarp closure can be overcome in "plan view" models through appropriate parameterizations of 3-dimensional effects. Following this, we apply the flow model to simulate the evolution of a typical scarp on the North Polar Cap of Mars. Our simulations investigate: (a) the role of "radiation trapping" (see our companion abstract) in creating and maintaining "spiral-like" scarps on the ice sheet, (b) the consequences of different flowlaws and ice compositions on scarp evolution and, in particular, scarp age, and (c) the role of dust and debris in scarp evolution.

Fountain, A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Intercomparison of surface meltwater routing models for the Greenland ice sheet and influence on subglacial effective pressures

Each summer, large volumes of surface meltwater drain off the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface through moulins to the bed, impacting subglacial hydrology and ice flow dynamics. Supraglacial surface routing delays may propagate to englacial and subglacial hydrologic systems, requiring accurate assessment to correctly estimate subglacial effective pressures. We compare hourly supraglacial moulin discharge simulations from three surface meltwater routing models – the synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH), the bare-ice component of surface routing and lake filling (SRLF), and the rescaled width function (RWF) – for four internally drained catchments on the southwestern Greenland ice sheet surface. The routing models are forced identically using surface runoff from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale regional climate model (RCM). For each catchment, simulated moulin hydrographs are input to the SHAKTI subglacial hydrologic model to simulate diurnally varying subglacial effective-pressure variations in the vicinity of a single moulin. Overall, all three routing models produce more realistic moulin discharges than simply using RCM runoff outputs without surface routing but produce significant differences in peak moulin discharge and time to peak. In particular, the RWF yields later, smaller peak moulin discharges than the SUH or SRLF due to its representation of slow interfluve flow between supraglacial meltwater channels, and it can readily accommodate the seasonal evolution of supraglacial stream and river networks. Differences among the three routing models are reflected in a series of simple idealized subglacial hydrology simulations that yield different diurnal effective-pressure amplitudes; however, the supraglacial hydrologic system acts as short-term storage for surface meltwater, and the temporal mean effective pressure is relatively consistent across routing models.

Kang Yang↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling ice streams: Derived quantities

The model addressed is a finite-element, map-plane, time-dependent, column-averaged continuity equation solver. The key to the fitting process involves the balance between ice motion dominated by flow in internal layers, and ice motion dominated by sliding at the bed. The fitting process involves an iterative process carried out in the time domain. Beginning with the portion of the ice sheet being modeled identical to the present ice sheet with uniform flow, sliding, and fraction specified at nominal values, the model monitors each nodal point surface elevation. As the calculated surface elevation deviates from the present surface, a correction proportional to the difference is applied to selected parameter sets. This correction is in a sense that would tend to improve the fit at the particular nodal point. A calculated surface elevation that was higher than the present surface would result in an increased fraction, which would tend to lower the calculated surface (if the flow or sliding constant were being used as the fitting parameter, they would be lowered to improve the fit). This process is allowed to proceed as long as is necessary for the situation to stabilize. Typically, this takes tens of thousands of model years, but the rate is dependent on other external forcings such as the accumulation rate. The primary result is that while a typical sample of ice streams from around Antarctica can be fitted quite reasonably using only the fraction of the velocity due to sliding, a different mechanism seems to be in play along the Siple Coast, where reduced sliding constants are required to attain a reasonable fit. Flow is more strongly channelized in this region, and velocities are, in general, higher than are observed in other regions. It is unlikely that the mechanism that controls the ice movement along the Siple Coast is exactly similar to the mechanisms in the other ice streams. The concept of deformable sediments and their contribution to the fast flow along the Siple Coast may have limited applicability to other Antarctic ice streams.

Fastook, James↗
NASA NTRS1989

Can Milankovitch orbital variations initiate the growth of ice sheets in a general circulation model?

The possibility of initiating the growth of ice sheets by solar insolation variations is examined. The study is conducted using a climate model with three different orbital configurations corresponding to 116,000 and 106,000 yr before the present and a modified insolation field with greater reductions in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. Despite the reduced summer and fall insolation, the model fails to maintain snow cover through the summer at locations of suspected ice sheet initiation. The results suggest that there is a discrepancy between the model's response to Milankovitch perturbations and the geophysical evidence of ice sheet initiation. If the model results are correct, the growth of ice shown by geophysical evidence would have occurred in an extremely ablative environment, demanding a complicated strategy.

Rind, D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivities of the West Greenland Current to Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater in a Mesoscale Ocean/Sea Ice Model

Abstract Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet can alter the continental shelf/slope circulation and cross-shelf freshwater fluxes and limit deep convection in adjacent basins through surface freshening. We explore the impacts on the West Greenland Current and eastern Labrador Sea with different vertical distributions of the meltwater forcing. In this study, we present the results from global coupled ocean/sea ice simulations, forced with atmospheric reanalysis, that are mesoscale eddy-active (∼2–3-km horizontal spacing) and eddy-permitting (∼6–7-km horizontal spacing) in the study region. We compare the West Greenland Current in mesoscale eddy-active and eddy-permitting without meltwater to highlight the role of small-scale features. The mesoscale eddy-active configuration is then used to assess the change in the eastern Labrador Sea when meltwater is added to the surface or vertically distributed to account for mixing within fjords. In both simulations with meltwater, the West Greenland and West Greenland Coastal Currents are faster than in the simulation with no meltwater; their mean surface speeds are the highest in the vertical distribution case. In the latter case, there is enhanced baroclinic conversion at the shelf break compared to the simulation with no meltwater. When meltwater is vertically distributed, there is an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy. In addition, in the eastern Labrador Sea, the salinity is lower and the meltwater volume is greater when meltwater is vertically distributed. Therefore, the West Greenland Current is sensitive to how meltwater is added to the ocean with implications for the freshening of the Labrador Sea. Significance Statement Our goal is to understand how the flux of freshwater across the West Greenland continental slope into the Labrador Sea is modified by meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We compare the simulations of the ocean that capture key dynamics along the West Greenland continental slope that have no meltwater, meltwater added to the ocean surface, and meltwater distributed vertically to represent the mixing within fjords. When meltwater is added, the currents along the continental slope are faster, with the greatest increase when meltwater is vertically distributed. In that case, there is enhanced freshening of the Labrador Sea because modified density gradients generate more eddies. Proper representation of the vertical structure of meltwater is important for projecting the impact of freshwater on the subpolar North Atlantic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

A digital elevation model of the Greenland ice sheet and validation with airborne laser altimeter data

A 2.5 km resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the Greenland ice sheet was produced from the 336 days of the geodetic phase of ERS-1. During this period the altimeter was operating in ice-mode over land surfaces providing improved tracking around the margins of the ice sheet. Combined with the high density of tracks during the geodetic phase, a unique data set was available for deriving a DEM of the whole ice sheet. The errors present in the altimeter data were investigated via a comparison with airborne laser altimeter data obtained for the southern half of Greenland. Comparison with coincident satellite data showed a correlation with surface slope. An explanation for the behavior of the bias as a function of surface slope is given in terms of the pattern of surface roughness on the ice sheet.

Bamber, Jonathan L.↗