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79 records · Page 5

A Modeling and Verification Study of Summer Precipitation Systems Using NASA Surface Initialization Datasets

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse-type convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within parameterization schemes, model resolution limitations, and uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of summertime pulse convection. This paper describes a sensitivity experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Interpolated land and ocean surface fields from a large-scale model are replaced with high-resolution datasets provided by unique NASA assets in an experimental simulation: the Land Information System (LIS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SSTs. The LIS is run in an offline mode for several years at the same grid resolution as the WRF model to provide compatible land surface initial conditions in an equilibrium state. The MODIS SSTs provide detailed analyses of SSTs over the oceans and large lakes compared to current operational products. The WRF model runs initialized with the LIS+MODIS datasets result in a reduction in the overprediction of rainfall areas; however, the skill is almost equally as low in both experiments using traditional verification methodologies. Output from object-based verification within NCAR s Meteorological Evaluation Tools reveals that the WRF runs initialized with LIS+MODIS data consistently generated precipitation objects that better matched observed precipitation objects, especially at higher precipitation intensities. The LIS+MODIS runs produced on average a 4% increase in matched precipitation areas and a simultaneous 4% decrease in unmatched areas during three months of daily simulations.

Jonathan L. Case↗

An Efficient and Accurate Algorithm for Computing Grid-Averaged Solar Fluxes for Horizontally Inhomogeneous Clouds

A computationally efficient method is presented to account for the horizontal cloud inhomogeneity by using a radiatively equivalent plane parallel homogeneous (PPH) cloud. The algorithm can accurately match the calculations of the reference (rPPH) independent column approximation (ICA) results, but use only the same computational time required for a single plane parallel computation. The effective optical depth of this synthetic sPPH cloud is derived by exactly matching the direct transmission to that of the inhomogeneous ICA cloud. The ffective9 scattering asymmetry factor is found from a pre-calculated albedo inverse look-up-table that is allowed to vary over the range from -1.0 to 1.0. In the special cases of conservative scattering and total absorption, the synthetic method is exactly equivalent to the ICA, with only a small bias (about 0.2% in flux) relative to ICA due to imperfect interpolation in using the look-up tables. In principle, the ICA albedo can be approximated accurately regardless of cloud inhomogeneity. For a more complete comparison, the broadband shortwave albedo and transmission calculated from the synthetic sPPH cloud and averaged over all incident directions, have the RMS biases of 0.26% and 0.76%, respectively, for inhomogeneous clouds over a wide variation of particle size. The advantages of the synthetic PPH method are that (1) it is not required that all the cloud subcolumns have uniform microphysical characteristic, (2) it is applicable to any 1D radiative transfer scheme, and (3) it can handle arbitrary cloud optical depth distributions and an arbitrary number of cloud subcolumns with uniform computational efficiency.

cloud inhomogeneity↗

A 3D Full Stress Tensor Model for Oklahoma

Abstract The stress tensor is an important property for upper crustal studies such as those that involve pore fluids and earthquake hazards. At tectonic plate scale, plate boundary forces and mantle convection are the primary drivers of the stress field. In many local settings (10–100 s of km and <10 km depth) in tectonic plate interiors, we can simplify by assuming a constant background stress field that is perturbed by local heterogeneity in density and elasticity. Local stress orientation and sometimes magnitude can be estimated from earthquake and borehole‐based observations when available. Modeling of the local stress field often involves interpolating sparse observations. We present a new method to estimate the 3D stress field in the upper crust and demonstrate it for Oklahoma. We created a 3D material model by inverting multiple types of geophysical observations simultaneously. Integrating surface‐wave dispersion, local travel times and gravity observations produces a model of P‐wave velocity, S‐wave velocity, and density. The stress field can then be modeled using finite element simulations. The simulations are performed using our simplified view of the local stress field as the sum of a constant background stress field that is perturbed by local density and elasticity heterogeneity and gravitational body forces. An orientation of N82°E, for the maximum compressive tectonic force, best agrees with previously observed stress orientations and faulting types in Oklahoma. The gravitational contribution of the horizontal stress field has a magnitude comparable to the tectonic contribution for the upper 5 km of the subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ballistics Model for Particles on a Horizontal Plane in a Vacuum Propelled by a Vertically Impinging Gas Jet

A simple trajectory model has been developed and is presented. The particle trajectory path is estimated by computing the vertical position as a function of the horizontal position using a constant horizontal velocity and a vertical acceleration approximated as a power law. The vertical particle position is then found by solving the differential equation of motion using a double integral of vertical acceleration divided by the square of the horizontal velocity, integrated over the horizontal position. The input parameters are: x(sub 0) and y(sub 0), the initial particle starting point; the derivative of the trajectory at x(sub 0) and y(sub 0), s(sub 0) = s(x(sub 0))= dx(y)/dy conditional expectation y = y((sub 0); and b where bx(sub 0)/y(sub 0) is the final trajectory angle before gravity pulls the particle down. The final parameter v(sub 0) is an approximation to a constant horizontal velocity. This model is time independent, providing vertical position x as a function of horizontal distance y: x(y) = (x(sub 0) + s(sub 0) (y-y(sub 0))) + bx(sub 0) -(s(sub 0)y(sub 0) ((y - y(sub 0)/y(sub 0) - ln((y/y(sub 0)))-((g(y-y(sub 0)(exp 2))/ 2((v(sub 0)(exp 2). The first term on the right in the above equation is due to simple ballistics and a spherically expanding gas so that the trajectory is a straight line intersecting (0,0), which is the point at the center of the gas impingement on the surface. The second term on the right is due to vertical acceleration, which may be positive or negative. The last term on the right is the gravity term, which for a particle with velocities less than escape velocity will eventually bring the particle back to the ground. The parameters b, s(sub 0), and in some cases v(sub 0), are taken from an interpolation of similar parameters determined from a CFD simulation matrix, coupled with complete particle trajectory simulations.

Lane, J. E.↗

Decoding Golden Eagle Movement Behavior from High-Resolution, Variable-Rate Telemetry Data Through Bayesian Filtering

The recent advances in animal tracking technology have enabled the collection of a vast amount of in situ data regarding the movement of wildlife at high spatiotemporal resolution. These data are usually available at variable time resolutions and contains noise (error) originating from GPS fixes. Decoding movement characteristics, particularly of flying animals, from telemetry data while handling these factors is a challenging yet important task for conservation purposes. Typically, this task is broken into two subtasks: resampling, and model calibration. The resampling subtask converts the variable rate positional data into a constant time interval data, while the model calibration subtask uses the resampled data to tune time-invariant parameters of the proposed models. For telemetry data at high temporal resolutions (order of 1 second), it is very challenging to decouple noise from actual movements using interpolation-based resampling techniques. Any errors introduced during resampling can significantly alter the the calibration and prediction attributes of the movement model. We address this problem through a unified Bayesian state-space framework that can handle both the resampling and calibration tasks in a single step. In addition, we use the speed and heading of the bird from telemetry data to regularize the position information of the bird. We use a Kalman filtering approach to include these nonlinearly related motion parameters within the state space framework. We cross-validated to quantify how this inclusion affects the model performance in estimating true bird movements. The relationship between the true state of the bird and environmental and topographical covariates is then represented parametrically. These parameters are then tuned using stochastic sampling strategies like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We use the telemetry data collected from golden eagles in the western USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to build a predictive, probabilistic movement model. Our preliminary results show that this approach provides improved predictive performance in terms of capturing higher-order motion parameters such as angular and horizontal accelerations, which may have simpler and more direct relationships with environmental covariates than corresponding speeds. In this talk, we will demonstrate how this state-space approach benefits the prediction capabilities of a movement model in simulating golden eagle paths through a wind power plant in Wyoming given certain atmospheric conditions. The model outcomes are aimed at informing mitigation strategies that can minimize the potential for collisions of golden eagles with wind turbines.

Bayesian methods↗

Photophoretic Propulsion Enabling Mesosphere Exploration NIAC Phase I Final Report

This Phase I report presents a comprehensive study on photophoretic flyers—innovative, ultralight, solar-powered vehicles that harness photophoretic forces generated via Knudsen pumping to achieve sustained flight in the mesosphere (50–80 km altitude). By integrating advanced materials such as nanocardboard— characterized by its extremely low areal density (~1 g/m²) and high bending stiffness—with ultrathin light-absorbing coatings, the project converts incident solar radiation directly into a directed thrust. Extensive experimental investigations, coupled with high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations using ANSYS Fluent, validate the concept across various three-dimensional geometries, including spherical, conical, and rocket-shaped configurations. These simulations bridge the gap between free-molecular and continuum flow regimes, demonstrating that optimized designs can generate lift forces sufficient to support kilogram-scale payloads even in low-pressure environments. At the heart of this innovation is the use of Knudsen pumping, where temperature gradients across porous surfaces induce directional gas flow, creating a modest overpressure that provides lift. The report introduces an analytical framework that interpolates between the well-known low-Reynolds number drag regime and the high-Reynolds number momentum theory. This model accurately predicts lift based on design parameters such as microchannel dimensions, porous wall geometry, areal density, and nozzle exit area. For instance, simulations indicate that 10-meter-scale structures with carefully engineered porous walls can achieve the necessary pressure differential to support scientifically significant payloads (~1 kg). The study also explores a hybrid propulsion approach that combines solar buoyancy with photophoretic lift. Initially, solar heating creates a buoyant force that elevates the flyer to mesospheric altitudes. Once in the optimal pressure range, the photophoretic mechanism—powered by Knudsen pumping—takes over as the primary source of lift, ensuring stable, long-duration flight. This dual-mode operation not only facilitates the deployment of photophoretic flyers but also broadens the potential applications for mesospheric exploration. In addition to propulsion, the report investigates the integration of photophoretic thrusters for trajectory control of existing research balloons in the upper stratosphere. By dynamically adjusting the nozzle orientation and controlling the flow-through velocity, these thrusters provide precise maneuverability, enabling the flyers to counteract atmospheric disturbances and adjust their flight paths in real time. For example, a photophoretic thruster approximately 7.5 by 7.5 meters in size could be unfolded below a payload gondola of a 60 million-cubic-foot zero-pressure balloon. Such a thruster can provide horizontal speed control of approximately 1 m/s using only sunlight and no moving parts (except those needed to track the Sun and control the jet direction). Importantly, photophoretic thrusters operate more efficiently at higher altitudes, which is complementary to known trajectory control techniques, such as propellers and tethered wings, which are more effective at lower altitudes. Finally, the report identifies three scientific research thrusts where mesospheric aircraft technology can have a profound impact: atmospheric tides, characterization of gravity waves, and investigation of mesospheric instabilities. Overall, the findings of this Phase I project represent a significant advancement in photophoretic propulsion technology. By demonstrating that large-scale, ultralight structures can be powered solely by solar radiation—via carefully engineered Knudsen pumping—this work lays a robust foundation for scalable, near-space flight architectures. Future refinements in material fabrication, structural optimization, and integrated trajectory control are expected to further enhance performance, paving the way for operational demonstrations that could revolutionize atmospheric science, remote sensing, and communication networks.

Knudsen Pump↗

Progress Toward Generation of a Navier-Stokes Database for a Harrier in Ground Effect

The Harrier YAV-8B aircraft is capable of vertical and short-field take-off and landing (V/STOL) by directing its four exhaust nozzles toward the ground, or conventional flight by rotating its nozzles into a horizontal position. The British Royal Air Force and the United States Marine Corps have used this aircraft for more than 30 years to provide a quick reaction time for troop support, and reduce the need for long runways. The success of this powered-lift (PL) vehicle has also prompted the more recent design of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). However there are significant safety issues that must be addressed when operating a PL vehicle in close proximity to the ground. Hot Gas Ingestion (HGI) by the inlets can result in a rapid loss of powered lift; and high-speed jet flows along the ground plane can induce low pressures underneath the vehicle, causing a 'suck-down' effect. Under these conditions, departure from controlled flight may occur. Moreover, unsteady ground vortices and jet fountains can affect the aircraft,s controllability and its proximity to ground troops. The viscous, time-dependent flow fields of PL vehicles are difficult to accurately and efficiently predict using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). A number of researchers have used the time-dependent Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations to compute flows for single and multiple jets in a cross-flow. A few have added some geometric complexity to the problem by computing flows for jet-augmented delta wings near a ground plane. Smith et.al. computed for the first time a single RANS solution about a simplified Harrier. This geometry included a fuselage, wing, leading edge root extension (LERX), inlets, and exhaust nozzles. All of these investigations cite two practical problems with computing these flows: 1) the need for improved solution accuracy; and, 2) the need for faster solution methods. We view the need for faster solution methods as key to improving the solution accuracy and making this class of computation more routine. One can hardly refine grids, explore the use of advanced turbulence models, and generate databases when it takes weeks of dedicated computer time for a single solution. Chaderjian, Ahmad, Pandya, and Murman have focused on reducing the time-to-solution for this very difficult and complex problem through process automation and exploitation of parallel computing. They began with the Harrier geometry reported, and added a deflected wing flap and empennage for greater realism. To date more than 80 solutions have been carried out. This paper will describe this process and progress made in reducing the time required to generate a simple longitudinal force and moment database for a Harrier in ground effect. It shows a typical snap-shot from an unsteady streakline animation, where fluid particles are colored by temperature. The ground vortex and a jet-fountain vortex are highlighted. It also shows a similar streakline image, where HGI occurs due to the vehicle in close proximity to the ground. It is show the mean lift coefficient as a function of angle of attack and height. The angle of attack range was 4 deg less than or = alpha less than or = 10 deg with an increment of 1 degree, and the height range was 10 ft less than or = h less than or = 30ft with an increment of 5 feet. This 35 solution database was extended to over 2500 cases using a monotone cubic-spline interpolation procedure. The suck-down effect (reduction of lift near the ground) is highlighted in the figure. The "cushion effect," the conventional reduction of lift as the vehicle moves out of ground effect, is also indicated. All 35 RANS solutions were obtained using 952 Silicon Graphics Origin 2000 and 3000 processors in dedicated mode for one week. Typically, 112 processors were assigned to each case. Some other cases used fewer processors to utilize all available CPUS. The final paper will report on the automation of the solution process, including: grid generation, job monitoring, solution completion criteria, and post processing. Moreover, improvements in parallel efficiency for a dual time-step algorithm for the RANS equations will also be presented. Results will be discussed in detail using unsteady streakline flow visualization to correlate unsteady flow structures with dominant aerodynamic frequencies. The stability derivatives, CL, and CL, will also be presented.

Chaderjian, Neal M.↗