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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Prevalence of human papillomavirus genotypes in high-grade cervical precancer and invasive cervical cancer from cancer registries before and after vaccine introduction in the United States

Background. US population-based cancer registries can be used for surveillance of human papillomavirus (HPV) types found in HPV-associated cancers. Using this framework, HPV prevalence among high-grade cervical precancers and invasive cervical cancers were compared before and after HPV vaccine availability. Methods. Archived tissue from 2 studies of cervical precancers and invasive cervical cancers diagnosed from 1993-2005 (prevaccine) were identified from 7 central cancer registries in Florida; Hawaii; Iowa; Kentucky; Louisiana; Los Angeles County, California; and Michigan; from 2014 through 2015 (postvaccine) cases were identified from 3 registries in Iowa, Kentucky, and Louisiana. HPV testing was performed using L1 consensus polymerase chain reaction analysis. HPV-type–specific prevalence was examined grouped by hierarchical attribution to vaccine types: HPV 16, 18, HPV 31, 33, 45, 52, 58, other oncogenic HPV types, and other types/HPV negative. Generalized logit models were used to compare HPV prevalence in the prevaccine study to the postvaccine study by patient age, adjusting for sampling factors. Results. A total of 676 precancers (328 prevaccine and 348 postvaccine) and 1140 invasive cervical cancers (777 prevaccine and 363 postvaccine) were typed. No differences were observed in HPV-type prevalence by patient age between the 2 studies among precancers or invasive cancers. Conclusions. The lack of reduction in vaccine-type prevalence between the 2 studies is likely explained by the low number of cases and low HPV vaccination coverage among women in the postvaccine study. Monitoring HPV-type prevalence through population-based strategies will continue to be important in evaluating the impact of the HPV vaccine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The intrinsic X-ray luminosity distribution of an optically selected SDSS quasar population

ABSTRACT In active galactic nuclei, the relationship between UV and X-ray luminosity is well studied (often characterised by αox) but often with heterogeneous samples. We have parametrized the intrinsic distribution of X-ray luminosity, LX, for the optically selected sample of SDSS quasars in the Stripe 82 and XXL fields across redshifts 0.5–3.5. We make use of the available XMM observations and a custom pipeline to produce Bayesian sensitivity curves that are used to derive the intrinsic X-ray distribution in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We find that the X-ray luminosity distribution is well described by a Gaussian function in log10 LX space with a mean that is dependent on the monochromatic 2500 Å UV luminosity, L2500. We also observe some redshift dependence of the distribution. The mean of the LX distribution increases with redshift while the width decreases. This weak but significant redshift dependence leads to L2500–LX and L2500–αox relations that evolve with redshift, and we produce a redshift- and L2500-dependent αox equation. Neither black hole mass nor Eddington ratio appear to be potential drivers of the redshift evolution.

Rankine, Amy L. (ORCID:0000000220911966)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Spatially Varying Multi-Regularization Image Deblurring

Many scientific experiments such as those found in astronomy, geology, microbiology, and X-ray radiography require the use of high-energy instruments to capture images. Since blur and noise are inevitably present in any imaging system, the images must be \deblurred" to extract the full information content. Mathematically, image deblurring is an ill-posed inverse problem that requires regularization. The regularization, in turn, has a large effect on the deblurred image: different regularization strengths, and types, lead to drastically different reconstructions. Moreover, many images contain a mixture of smooth and sharp features which suggests the use of multi-regularization, i.e., varying the type of regularization (e.g. Tikhonov or total variation) across the image. We address these issues by formulating the image deblurring problem within a hierarchical Bayesian framework in which we spatially adapt the strength of the regularization and also vary the regularization type across the image. In this way, the image itself, along with corresponding regularization strength at each pixel, are described jointly by a posterior distribution which we can sample by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We illustrate our techniques on simplified test problems and apply them to high-energy X-ray images taken at the Nevada National Security Site. Numerical tests show that our new method is robustly applicable and increases the quality of the image reconstruction when compared to other (Bayesian) methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Native Defects Hybridization and Electronic Transport in Cu 2 Se–CuGaSe 2 Hierarchical Composites

Engineering the energy distribution of electronic defects in semiconductors can afford the coexistence of degenerate and nondegenerate transport behavior. By leveraging native defects in Cu 2 Se and CuGaSe 2 phases, the tunability of the concentration and energy distribution of active electronic defects in hierarchical (1-x)Cu 2 Se-(x)CuGaSe 2 composites is demonstrated. This study found that the electrical conductivity of various composites decreases with rising temperature indicating degenerate semiconducting behavior, whereas the carrier density increases with temperature, which is consistent with non-degenerate semiconductivity. Remarkably, this study found that while the carrier density and electrical conductivity drop with the increasing CuGaSe 2 content for samples with x ≤ 0.45 is consistent with an increase in the activation energy of “active” electronic defects, the sudden increase by 140% in the electrical conductivity and by 109% in the carrier density for near equimolar composition suggests the formation of a large density of electronic defects with lower activation energy. This unusual behavior is understood within the context of the hybridization of coexisting native electronic defects to form degenerate hybrid acceptor states with lower activation energy. The reported unique electronic transport can be leveraged for the development of more versatile electronic and optoelectronic devices with superior performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Federated Learning Methods for Nonsmooth, Nonconvex, and Hierarchical Optimization (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the outcomes of a DOE-funded project on federated scientific machine learning (FL) under nonsmooth, nonconvex, and hierarchical optimization settings. The project develops new mathematical models, algorithms, and theoretical guarantees for decentralized stochastic, bilevel, and minimax optimization problems arising in DOE mission-relevant applications. A unified framework of randomized and zeroth-order federated optimization methods is introduced, providing provable convergence, communication efficiency, and sample-complexity guarantees. The report documents algorithmic design, theoretical analysis, and empirical validation of the proposed federated learning methods. The project also contributes to workforce development through graduate training and dissemination of results via publications and seminars.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network of networks: Time series clustering of AmeriFlux sites

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Nanocrystalline Graphite from Lignin Sources

Carbon composites are attractive to a variety of high-impact applications, such as carbon fibers, batteries, and vehicle parts, due to their multifunctional properties. The properties of carbon are highly dependent on the allotrope the carbon takes and the functionality, impurities, and defects contained within the structure. The increase in demand for sustainable carbon sources in energy storage devices motivates interest in understanding synthesis parameters of lignin value-added products. Also, as the dependence on oil for fuel decreases, alternative sources for carbon in many applications will be needed. In this work, the thermochemical conversion of lignin powders from different feedstocks was evaluated via small and wide-angle X-ray scattering techniques to resolve the amorphous, disordered, and crystalline domains present in the lignin carbons. Scattering analyses indicated an evolution of hierarchical structures along with an increase in ordered domains as a function of carbonization temperature. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to describe isotropic scattering intensity profiles at multiple length scales. The use of power law models in the mesoscopic region served as the basis to describe morphological changes related to structural features, for example, graphene stacking, degree of roughness, and surface fractals. Kraft softwood and switchgrass produced carbon powder with the most crystalline domains and the least surface roughness. Softwoods reached the highest degree of crystallinity followed by switchgrass samples and had less variability in particle sizes. These results suggest lignin carbons extracted from softwoods and switchgrass are viable substitutes for graphite. Interpretation of X-ray scattering data from lignin carbon powders elucidates feedstock- and processing-dependent morphological features across multiple length scales providing a straightforward framework to evaluate the feasibility of leveraging lignin carbons for producing tunable application-specific materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis

The leaf economic spectrum is a widely-studied axis of plant trait variability that defines a trade-off between leaf longevity and productivity. While this has been investigated at the global scale, where it is robust, and at local scales, where deviations from it are common, it has received less attention at the intermediate scale of PFTs. We investigated whether global leaf economic relationships are also present within the scale of plant functional types (PFTs) commonly used by Earth System models, and the extent to which this global-PFT hierarchy can be used to constrain trait estimates. We developed a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian model that assumes separate means and covariance structures within and across PFTs and fit this model to seven leaf traits from the TRY database related to leaf longevity, morphology, biochemistry, and photosynthetic metabolism. Although patterns of trait covariation were generally consistent with the leaf economic spectrum, we found three approximate tiers to this consistency. Relationships among morphological and biochemical traits (SLA, N, P) were the most robust within and across PFTs, suggesting that covariation in these traits is driven by universal leaf construction trade-offs and stoichiometry. Relationships among metabolic traits (R_d, V_{c,max}, J_max) were slightly less consistent, reflecting in part their much sparser sampling (especially for high-latitude PFTs), but also pointing to more flexible plasticity in plant metabolistm. Finally, relationships involving leaf lifespan were the least consistent, indicating that leaf economic relationships related to leaf lifespan are dominated by across-PFT differences and that within-PFT variation in leaf lifespan is more complex and idiosyncratic. Across all traits, these covariance were an important source of information, as evidenced by the improved imputation accuracy and reduced predictive uncertainty in multivariate models compared to univariate models. Ultimately, our study reaffirms the value of studying not just individual traits but the multivariate trait space and the utility of hierarchical modeling for studying the scale dependence of trait relationships.

biodiversity, ecological modeling, ecology, leaf b↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights from application of a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to an intensive urban black carbon monitoring dataset

Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km 2 West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R 2 =0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, here we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Additive manufacturing of multiscale NiFeMn multi-principal element alloys with tailored composition

Nanostructured multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) have been explored as next-generation engineering materials due to unique mechanical and functional properties which have significant advantages over traditional dilute alloys. However, the practical applications of nanostructured MPEAs are still limited due to the lack of scalable processing approaches to prepare a large quantity of nanostructured MPEAs, as well as lack of an efficient pathway for high-throughput discovery of better functional nanostructured MPEAs within their vast compositional space. Here we tackle these challenges by presenting an integrated approach by combining direct-ink-writing-based additive manufacturing, solid-state sintering, and chemical dealloying to manufacture hierarchically porous MPEAs. The hierarchical structure is comprised of macro- and micro-scale pores introduced via extrusion printing and polymer decomposition during sintering, as well as nanoscale pores formed via chemical dealloying. The macro- and micro-scale pores allow efficient dealloying of a large mass of material as the diffusion length that the corroding medium must penetrate remains at the scale of the ligaments formed after sintering (∼10 μm), despite the large volume of the 3D-printed samples. In addition, this integrated approach enables versatile control of the alloy composition via precisely tuning the ratio of elemental powders in the starting ink, thus offering a pathway for high-throughput discovery of novel functional MPEAs. As a case study, multiscale macro/micro/nanoporous NiFeMn MPEAs with three different compositions were investigated as catalysts to reduce the overpotential of oxygen evolution reaction (OER), where NiFeMn-based electrocatalysts display composition-dependent performance such that the overpotential measured at a current of 0.5 A g −1 for OER increases in the order of Ni 58 Fe 29 Mn 13 ⩽ Ni 64 Fe 26 Mn 10 < Ni 76 Fe 18 Mn 6 . This introduced manufacturing process offers new opportunities for scalable fabrication and rapid screening of nanostructured multi-component complex alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Post-hoc reweighting of hadron production in the Lund string model

We present a method for reweighting flavor selection in the Lund string fragmentation model. This is the process of calculating and applying event weights enabling fast and exact variation of hadronization parameters on pre-generated event samples. The procedure is post hoc, requiring only a small amount of additional information stored per event, and allowing for efficient estimation of hadronization uncertainties without repeated simulation. Weight expressions are derived from the hadronization algorithm itself, and validated against direct simulation for a wide range of observables and parameter shifts. The hadronization algorithm can be viewed as a hierarchical Markov process with stochastic rejections, a structure common to many complex simulations outside of high-energy physics. This perspective makes the method modular, extensible, and potentially transferable to other domains. We demonstrate the approach in Pythia, including both coverage considerations and timing benefits. For the purpose of this paper, our goal is to develop and demonstrate the the formalism, and we therefore exclude several model variations for baryon production (popcorn model, junction production) needed for proton collisions. These will be the topic of a future paper.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The dark matter halo masses of elliptical galaxies as a function of observationally robust quantities

Context. The assembly history of the stellar component of a massive elliptical galaxy is closely related to that of its dark matter halo. Measuring how the properties of galaxies correlate with their halo mass can therefore help to understand their evolution. Aims. We investigate how the dark matter halo mass of elliptical galaxies varies as a function of their properties, using weak gravitational lensing observations. To minimise the chances of biases, we focus on the following galaxy properties that can be determined robustly: the surface brightness profile and the colour. Methods. We selected 2409 central massive elliptical galaxies (log M*/M ⊙ ≳ 11.4) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic sample. We first measured their surface brightness profile and colours by fitting Sérsic models to photometric data from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). We fitted their halo mass distribution as a function of redshift, rest-frame r-band luminosity, half-light radius, and rest-frame u - g colour, using KiDS weak lensing measurements and a Bayesian hierarchical approach. For the sake of robustness with respect to assumptions on the large-radii behaviour of the surface brightness, we repeated the analysis replacing the total luminosity and half-light radius with the luminosity within a 10 kpc aperture, L r, 10 , and the light-weighted surface brightness slope, Γ 10 . Results. We did not detect any correlation between the halo mass and either the half-light radius or colour at fixed redshift and luminosity. Using the robust surface brightness parameterisation, we found that the halo mass correlates weakly with L r,10 and anti-correlates with Γ 10 . At fixed redshift, L r, 10 and Γ 10 , the difference in the average halo mass between galaxies at the 84th percentile and 16th percentile of the colour distribution is 0.00 ± 0.11 dex. Conclusion. Our results indicate that the average star formation efficiency of massive elliptical galaxies has little dependence on their final size or colour. This suggests that the origin of the diversity in the size and colour distribution of these objects lies with properties other than the halo mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global Explainability of A Deep Abstaining Classifier for Cancer Pathology Reports

We present a global explainability method to characterize sources of errors in a real-world multitask deep abstaining classifier (DAC), in the context of cancer histology prediction. Our multitask classifier, currently deployed for automated annotation of cancer pathology reports from NCI-SEER registries, was trained and evaluated on 1.04 million hand-annotated samples and makes simultaneous predictions of cancer site, subsite, histology, laterality, and behavior for each report. The DAC framework enables the model to abstain on ambiguous reports and confusing classes to achieve the target accuracy on the retained (non-abstained) samples, but at the cost of decreased coverage. Requiring 97% accuracy on the histology task caused our model to retain only 22% of all samples, mostly the less ambiguous and common classes. Local explainability with the GradInp technique provided a computationally efficient way of obtaining contextual reasoning for hundreds of thousands of individual predictions. Our method, involving dimensionality reduction of approximately 13000 aggregated local explanations (ALE), offers a tractable path to true global explainability. It enabled identification of sources of errors in histology classification, globally, as hierarchical complexity among classes, label noise, insufficient information, and conflicting evidence. This suggests several strategies for iterative improvement of our DAC, including well-designed exclusion criteria, focused annotation, and reduced penalties for errors involving hierarchically related classes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building Alternative Indices of Socioeconomic Status for Population Modeling in Data-Sparse Contexts (Short Paper)

Population modeling requires clear definitions of socioeconomic status (SES) to ensure overall estimate accuracy and locate potentially underserved subpopulations. This presents a challenge as SES can be measured in myriad ways and for divergent purposes, and the data required to calculate these metrics may be lacking, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs). To support more refined SES measurement, we explore improvements upon the Demographic and Health Survey’s (DHS) Wealth Index (DHS-WI) using alternative characterizations of SES based on multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical clustering. We produce the MCA-derived metrics first on a full suite of household economic, demographic, and dwelling variables, then on a reduced set of occupant-only SES characteristics. We explore the utility of these metrics relative to DHS-WI based on their ability to 1) differentiate DHS household types and 2) identify mixtures of SES levels within DHS samples and mapped at high spatial resolution. We find that our full suite MCA yields more clearly defined SES segments and that our reduced MCA delineates occupant SES most clearly, suggesting potential pathways to improve upon the DHS-WI in future population modeling efforts for LMICs.

Cunningham, Angela↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hierarchically structured MoO 2 /dopamine-derived carbon spheres as intercalation electrodes for lithium-ion batteries

A hydrogen peroxide initiated sol-gel process involving molybdenum transformation in the presence of dopamine (Dopa) hydrochloride excess produced the metastable precipitate composed of polydopamine (PDopa) spheres coated with Dopa preintercalated molybdenum oxide, (Dopa) x MoO y @PDopa. The hydrothermal treatment (HT) of the (Dopa) x MoO y @PDopa precursor resulted in the simultaneous carbonization of Dopa and molybdenum reduction generating MoO 2 nanoplatelets distributed and confined on the surface of the Dopa-derived carbon matrix (HT-MoO 2 /C). The consecutive annealing (An) of the HT-MoO 2 /C sample at 600 °C under Ar atmosphere led to the formation of MoO 2 with increased Mo oxidation state and improved structural stability (AnHT-MoO 2 /C). Annealing had also further facilitated interaction between the molybdenum-derived and Dopa-derived components resulting in the modification of the carbon matrix confirmed by Raman spectroscopy. Morphology of both materials is best described as Dopa-derived carbon spheres decorated with MoO 2 nanoplatelets. These integrated metal oxide and carbon structures were tested as electrodes for lithium-ion batteries in the potential window that corresponds to the intercalation mechanism of charge storage. The AnHT-MoO 2 /C electrode showed enhanced electrochemical activity, with an initial specific discharge capacity of 260 mAh/g and capacity retention of 67% after 50 cycles, compared to the HT-MoO 2 /C electrode which exhibited an initial specific discharge capacity of 235 mAh g –1 and capacity retention of 47% after 50 cycles. The rate capability experiments revealed that the capacity of 93 mAh/g and 120 mAh/g was delivered by the HT-MoO 2 /C and AnHT-MoO 2 /C electrodes, respectively, when the current density was increased to 100 mA/g. Here, the improved specific capacity, electrochemical stability, and rate capability achieved after annealing were attributed to higher crystallinity of MoO 2 , increased oxidation state of Mo, and formation of the tighter MoO 2 /carbon contact accompanied by the annealing assisted interaction between MoO 2 and Dopa-derived carbon.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Application of a Genomic Network Analysis in Population Ecology: Inferring Patterns of Dispersal and Geographic Structure in the Emerging Pathogen, Coccidioides

A challenge in population ecology studies is identifying how to best group individuals into populations, especially when individual origin is unknown. Machine learning has improved upon traditional methods of identifying population structure and is more efficient at handling large, complex datasets. We demonstrate the applicability of a machine learning method to identify hierarchical population structure in an emerging pathogen, Coccidioides spp., the causative agent of Valley fever. We compared the network clusters to structure identified by traditional tools as a validation of the network performance. We used publicly available whole-genome data for 48 C. immitis and 102 C. posadasii, resulting in 168,211 genome-wide SNPs among the two species. The network analysis grouped samples into populations comparable to the literature for these species but also identified fine-scale geographic structure and travel-associated cases not reported thus far. Exploring different resolutions in the network made it easy to identify unique genotypes specific to California and possibly Nevada, as well as Phoenix- and Tucson-acquired infections in non-endemic areas, regardless of reported travel history. The present study provides a promising example of how a ML-based network analysis can improve our ability to understand pathogen ecology, group cases into populations and infer travel-associated infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗