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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

A Very Large Area Network (VLAN) knowledge-base applied to space communication problems

This paper first describes a hierarchical model for very large area networks (VLAN). Space communication problems whose solution could profit by the model are discussed and then an enhanced version of this model incorporating the knowledge needed for the missile detection-destruction problem is presented. A satellite network or VLAN is a network which includes at least one satellite. Due to the complexity, a compromise between fully centralized and fully distributed network management has been adopted. Network nodes are assigned to a physically localized group, called a partition. Partitions consist of groups of cell nodes with one cell node acting as the organizer or master, called the Group Master (GM). Coordinating the group masters is a Partition Master (PM). Knowledge is also distributed hierarchically existing in at least two nodes. Each satellite node has a back-up earth node. Knowledge must be distributed in such a way so as to minimize information loss when a node fails. Thus the model is hierarchical both physically and informationally.

Zander, Carol S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A hierarchical distributed control model for coordinating intelligent systems

A hierarchical distributed control (HDC) model for coordinating cooperative problem-solving among intelligent systems is described. The model was implemented using SOCIAL, an innovative object-oriented tool for integrating heterogeneous, distributed software systems. SOCIAL embeds applications in 'wrapper' objects called Agents, which supply predefined capabilities for distributed communication, control, data specification, and translation. The HDC model is realized in SOCIAL as a 'Manager'Agent that coordinates interactions among application Agents. The HDC Manager: indexes the capabilities of application Agents; routes request messages to suitable server Agents; and stores results in a commonly accessible 'Bulletin-Board'. This centralized control model is illustrated in a fault diagnosis application for launch operations support of the Space Shuttle fleet at NASA, Kennedy Space Center.

Adler, Richard M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resource selection functions based on hierarchical generalized additive models provide new insights into individual animal variation and species distributions

Habitat selection studies are designed to generate predictions of species distributions or inference regarding general habitat associations and individual variation in habitat use. Such studies frequently involve either individually indexed locations gathered across limited spatial extents and analyzed using resource selection functions (RSFs) or spatially extensive locational data without individual resolution typically analyzed using species distribution models. Both analytical methodologies have certain desirable features, but analyses that combine individual- and population-level inference with flexible non-linear functions may provide improved predictions while accounting for individual variation. Here, we describe how RSFs can be fit using hierarchical generalized additive models (HGAMs) using widely available software, providing a means to explore individual variation in habitat associations and to generate species distribution maps. We used GPS tracking data from golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos from across eastern North America with four environmental predictors to generate monthly distribution models. We considered three model structures that assumed different amounts of individual variation in the functional relationship between predictors and habitat use and used k-fold cross-validation to compare model performance. Models accounting for individual variability in shape and smoothness of functional responses performed best. Eagles exhibited the least amount of individual variation in response to land cover variables during winter months, with most individuals more closely adhering to the population-level trend. During the summer months, eagles exhibited more substantial individual variation in shape and smoothness of the functional relationships, suggesting some need to account for individual variation in eagle habitat use for both inferential and predictive purposes, during this time of year. Because they allow users to blend flexible functions with random effects structures and are well-supported by a variety of software platforms, we believe that HGAMs provide a useful addition to the suite of analyses used for modeling habitat associations or predicting species distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water Cycle-Driven Infectious Diseases as Multiscale, Reliable, Continuously Updating Water Cycle Sensors

We propose a novel synthesis of observational and simulated data (climatological and biological) to enhance understanding of the real-world interplay between climate (here, the water cycle) and the epidemiology of water cycle-driven infectious disease. Aligning with Focal Area 2, predictive modeling using AI techniques, we will develop systems of hierarchical models to discover latent features of the water cycle. Our approach will leverage state-of-the-art in Artificial Intelligence (AI) to measure the degree to which climate change-driven shifts in water cycle can be predicted by supplementing sparse and irregular climate data with water cycle-driven infectious disease resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Process Engineering Technology Center Initiative

NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is developing as a world-class Spaceport Technology Center (STC). From a process engineering (PE) perspective, the facilities used for flight hardware processing at KSC are NASA's premier factories. The products of these factories are safe, successful shuttle and expendable vehicle launches carrying state-of-the-art payloads. PE is devoted to process design, process management, and process improvement, rather than product design. PE also emphasizes the relationships of workers with systems and processes. Thus, it is difficult to speak of having a laboratory for PE at KSC because the entire facility is practically a laboratory when observed from a macro level perspective. However, it becomes necessary, at times, to show and display how KSC has benefited from PE and how KSC has contributed to the development of PE; hence, it has been proposed that a Process Engineering Technology Center (PETC) be developed to offer a place with a centralized focus on PE projects, and a place where KSC's PE capabilities can be showcased, and a venue where new Process Engineering technologies can be investigated and tested. Graphics for showcasing PE capabilities have been designed, and two initial test beds for PE technology research have been identified. Specifically, one test bed will look into the use of wearable computers with head mounted displays to deliver work instructions; the other test bed will look into developing simulation models that can be assembled into one to create a hierarchical model.

Centeno, Martha A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Process Engineering Technology Center Initiative

NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is developing as a world-class Spaceport Technology Center (STC). From a process engineering (PE) perspective, the facilities used for flight hardware processing at KSC are NASA's premier factories. The products of these factories are safe, successful shuttle and expendable vehicle launches carrying state-of-the-art payloads. PE is devoted to process design, process management, and process improvement, rather than product design. PE also emphasizes the relationships of workers with systems and processes. Thus, it is difficult to speak of having a laboratory for PE at K.S.C. because the entire facility is practically a laboratory when observed from a macro level perspective. However, it becomes necessary, at times, to show and display how K.S.C. has benefited from PE and how K.S.C. has contributed to the development of PE; hence, it has been proposed that a Process Engineering Technology Center (PETC) be developed to offer a place with a centralized focus on PE projects, and a place where K.S.C.'s PE capabilities can be showcased, and a venue where new Process Engineering technologies can be investigated and tested. Graphics for showcasing PE capabilities have been designed, and two initial test beds for PE technology research have been identified. Specifically, one test bed will look into the use of wearable computers with head mounted displays to deliver work instructions; the other test bed will look into developing simulation models that can be assembled into one to create a hierarchical model.

Centeno, Martha A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot Droughts and Forest Tree Dynamics in the Amazon - Statistical Models, Scripts, Data, and Outputs

This package contains data, outputs, equations, and R scripts for analyses for manuscript entitled "Hot droughts in the Amazon: A window to a future hypertropical climate" by J. Chambers et al., in particular it contains statistical models and analyses for the INPA BIONTE tree mortality study. The Models folder contains details for all statistical models in PDF files. The Scripts folder contains the R scripts for Bayesian Hierarchical Models (two text files) and SEMs (one text file) are separate and reasonably annotated. All data associated with these scripts are in the data folder. The Data folder contains two of the three CSV files used for the analyses and are called by the R scripts. Two of them are part of published datasets (`BIONTE_mortality-rates.csv` from Lima et al. 2024, DOI:10.15486/ngt/1898910 and `SPEI.csv` from Pastorello et al. 2023 DOI:10.15486/ngt/1958257) and also provided in this package for convenience (please see the corresponding datasets for usage and citation terms). The third dataset (`BIONTE_gapfilled_wd.csv`) contains sensitive information and can be obtained by contacting the manuscript lead author. The Outputs folder contains the two output files that provide extra information about the analyses. The file `figuresFeb2025d.pdf` contains all the figures from the manuscript - captions are in the manuscript. The file `ChambersMS.pdf` contains primary results from Bayesian statistical models, regression analyses, and validation steps applied to the tree mortality data from the INPA experiments. The document includes visual summaries, model diagnostics, and leave-one-out (LOO) validation results. A breakdown of file contents can be found in the README file that is part of this package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Models and techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of aircraft computing systems

The development of system models that can provide a basis for the formulation and evaluation of aircraft computer system effectiveness, the formulation of quantitative measures of system effectiveness, and the development of analytic and simulation techniques for evaluating the effectiveness of a proposed or existing aircraft computer are described. Specific topics covered include: system models; performability evaluation; capability and functional dependence; computation of trajectory set probabilities; and hierarchical modeling of an air transport mission.

Meyer, J. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
NASA NTRS1989

CONFIG - Adapting qualitative modeling and discrete event simulation for design of fault management systems

CONFIG is a modeling and simulation tool prototype for analyzing the normal and faulty qualitative behaviors of engineered systems. Qualitative modeling and discrete-event simulation have been adapted and integrated, to support early development, during system design, of software and procedures for management of failures, especially in diagnostic expert systems. Qualitative component models are defined in terms of normal and faulty modes and processes, which are defined by invocation statements and effect statements with time delays. System models are constructed graphically by using instances of components and relations from object-oriented hierarchical model libraries. Extension and reuse of CONFIG models and analysis capabilities in hybrid rule- and model-based expert fault-management support systems are discussed.

Malin, Jane T.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Territory and Population Attributes Affect Florida Scrub-Jay Fecundity in Fire Adapted Ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida’s Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing “strong” quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Long-term studies↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a wind turbine model and simulation platform using an acausal approach: Multiphysics modeling, validation, and control

This article presents the development of the Control-oriented, Reconfigurable, and Acausal Floating Turbine Simulator (CRAFTS). CRAFTS has a modular, hierarchical model architecture that enables rapid and accurate simulation of wind turbines. The architecture facilitates the incorporation of model variants, and its system reconfiguration features help simulate multiple design variants. CRAFTS also supports the integration of models developed on a causality-free platform (e.g., Modelica®) with existing causal models. This article focuses on the validation of a land-based wind turbine models against OpenFAST, an industry-standard platform, for several test cases. Closed-loop scenarios are also tested using the standard ROSCO controller and compared against OpenFAST. In addition, a nonlinear controller developed in our prior work is also evaluated. The test cases demonstrate the user-friendly and computationally efficient capabilities of CRAFTS to facilitate control co-design, assist in incorporating multiphysics models, be adaptable to design variants, and allow for rapid simulations to validate models and evaluate controllers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding implications of cathode architecture on energy density of solid-state batteries

Next generation solid-state batteries (SSB) will need to leverage high voltage cathodes, as well as metallic anodes to achieve the realistic performance targets necessary to replace liquid electrolyte-based batteries in cutting-edge applications including electric vehicles. However, limitations arising from mass and charge transports, kinetics and chemo-mechanical degradation at the electrode | electrolyte interface limit the performance of present day SSBs. Optimizing composite cathode architecture, which is an integral part of solid-state batteries, is vital to realize the high-energy density and high-performance goals for next-generation solid-state batteries. Additionally, cathode architecture needs to be optimized for high loadings of active material, well-percolated ion and electron transport pathways and increased resilience against electrochemical stresses. This paper provides a first report of framework for geometric modeling of composite cathode architectures and evaluates the impact of cathode architecture on cell-level energy density using hierarchical models. Packing around primary and secondary active material particles are simulated for a range of active material particle size and solid electrolyte size distributions in the composite cathode. Impact of packing architecture on processing parameters of a given cathode composition and thickness, as well as on achievable energy density is evaluated for a range of commonly used solid electrolyte and cathode materials. Overall, the proposed framework offers a facile exploratory methodology for establishing initial metrics for scalable processing of practical and competent SSBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Radiative Convective Equilibrium to Explore Clouds and Climate in the Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract Characteristics of, and fundamental differences between, the radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) climate states following the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) protocols in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and version 6 (CAM6) are presented. This paper explores the characteristics of clouds, moisture, precipitation and circulation in the RCE state, as well as the tropical response to surface warming, in CAM5 and CAM6 with different parameterizations. Overall, CAM5 simulates higher precipitation rates that result in larger global average precipitation, despite lower outgoing longwave radiation compared to CAM6. Differences in the structure of clouds, particularly the amount and vertical location of cloud liquid, exist between the CAM versions and can, in part, be related to distinct representations of shallow convection and boundary layer processes. Both CAM5 and CAM6 simulate similar peaks in cloud fraction, relative humidity, and cloud ice, linked to the usage of a similar deep convection parameterization. These anvil clouds rise and decrease in extent in response to surface warming. More generally, extreme precipitation, aggregation of convection, and climate sensitivity increase with warming in both CAM5 and CAM6. This analysis provides a benchmark for future studies that explore clouds, convection, and climate in CAM with the RCEMIP protocols now available in the Community Earth System Model. These results are discussed within the context of realistic climate simulations using CAM5 and CAM6, highlighting the usefulness of a hierarchical modeling approach to understanding model and parameterization sensitivities to inform model development efforts.

Reed, Kevin A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Problems, questions and results in the use of the BBN-model

A hierarchical structured control model was used to describe pilot performance in a multivariable control problem. The model is based on the assumption that a well trained operator optimized a quadratic optimization criterion. The model considers some special characteristics of the human operator as time delay, neuromuscular time lag, observation and motor noise and the ability to extract the first derivative of a displaced value. Numerical results of a simple human engineering example using the BBN model demonstrate the influence of the variation of different parameters on covariance matrices of the state and observation vectors.

Dey, D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automating Bayesian inference and design to quantify acoustic particle levitation

Self-propulsion of micro- and nanoparticles powered by ultrasound provides an attractive strategy for the remote manipulation of colloidal matter using biocompatible energy inputs. Quantitative understanding of particle motion and its dependence on size, shape, and composition requires accurate characterization of the acoustic field, which depends sensitively on the experimental setup. Here, we show how automated experiments based on Bayesian inference and design can accurately and efficiently characterize the acoustic field within resonant chambers used to propel acoustic nanomotors. Repeated cycles of observation, inference, and design (OID) are guided by a physical model that describes the rate at which levitating particles approach the nodal plane. Using video microscopy, we observe the relaxation of tracer particles to this plane following the application of the acoustic field. We use sequential Monte Carlo methods to infer model parameters such as the amplitude and frequency of the resonant chamber while accounting for particle-level measurement noise and population-level heterogeneity in the field. Guided by simulated outcomes, we select the optimal design for the next experiment as to maximize the information gain in the relevant parameters. We show how this iterative process serves to discriminate between competing hypotheses and efficiently converges to accurate parameter estimates using only few automated experiments. We discuss the need for model criticism to ensure the validity of the guiding model throughout automated cycles of observation, inference, and design. Furthermore, this work demonstrates how Bayesian methods can learn the parameters of nonlinear, hierarchical models used to describe video microscopy data of active colloids.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Variational Inference Approach to Inverse Problems with Gamma Hyperpriors

Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge L 1 and L 2 regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing methodologies are limited to maximum a posteriori estimation. The potential to perform uncertainty quantification has not yet been realized. This paper introduces a variational iterative alternating scheme for hierarchical inverse problems with gamma hyperpriors. The proposed variational inference approach yields accurate reconstruction, provides meaningful uncertainty quantification, and is easy to implement. In addition, it lends itself naturally to conduct model selection for the choice of hyperparameters. Here, we illustrate the performance of our methodology in several computed examples, including a deconvolution problem and sparse identification of dynamical systems from time series data.

Bayesian shrinkage↗
NASA NTRS1980

On evaluating the performability of degradable computing systems

If the performance of a computing system is 'degradable', performance and reliability issues must be dealt with simultaneously in the process of evaluating system effectiveness. For this purpose, a unified measure, called 'performability', is introduced and the foundations of performability modeling and evaluation are established. A critical step in the modeling process is the introduction of a 'capability function' which relates low-level system behavior to user-oriented performance levels. A hierarchical modeling scheme is used to formulate the capability function and capability is used, in turn, to evaluate performability. These techniques are then illustrated for a specific application: the performability evaluation of an aircraft computer in the environment of an air transport mission.

Meyer, J. F.↗