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At least 91 records · Page 5

Carbon dioxide emissions from Deccan volcanism and a K/T boundary greenhouse effect

A greenhouse warming caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide from the Deccan Traps volcanism has been suggested as the cause of the terminal Cretaceous extinctions on land and in the sea. Total eruptive and noneruptive CO2 output by the Deccan eruptions (from 6 to 20 x 10 to the 16th moles) over a period of several hundred thousand years is estimated based on best estimates of the CO2 weight fraction of the original basalts and basaltic melts, the fraction of CO2 degassed, and the volume of the Deccan Traps eruptions. Results of a model designed to estimate the effects of increased CO2 on climate and ocean chemistry suggest that increases in atmospheric pCO2 due to Deccan Traps CO2 emissions would have been less than 75 ppm, leading to a predicted global warming of less than 1 C over several hundred thousand years. It is concluded that the direct climate effects of CO2 emissions from the Deccan eruptions would have been too weak to be an important factor in the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions.

Caldeira, Ken↗

Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases - An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change

Many mechanisms, including variations in solar radiation and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, compete with anthropogenic greenhouse gases as causes of global climate change. Comparisons of available data show that solar variability will not counteract greenhouse warming and that future observations will need to be made to quantify the role of tropospheric aerosols, for example.

Hansen, James E.↗

A numerical simulation of climate changes during the obliquity cycle on Mars

A one-dimensional seasonal energy balance climate model of the Martian surface is developed. The model shows the importance of using short-period diurnal and seasonal variations of solar irradiance instead of yearly-averaged quantities. The roles of meridional heat transport and greenhouse warming are shown to be important. The possible existence of hysteresis cycles in the formation and sublimation of permanent deposits during the course of the obliquity cycle is demonstrated.

Francois, L. M.↗

Monitoring Global Temperatures From Satellites

Report provides evidence that passive microwave radiometry from satellites provides more-precise information on atmospheric temperatures than sparse distribution of thermometers. Accurate temperatures needed for detection of "greenhouse" warming, evaluation of computer models of change in climate, and for understanding important factors in climate system.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

The role of SO2 on Mars and on the primordial oxygen isotope composition of water on Earth and Mars

We stress the importance of SO2 on Mars. In the case that water should have been supplied in sufficient quantities to the Martian surface by a late veneer and stored in the near surface layers in form of ice, temporary greenhouse warming by SO2 after large SO2 discharges may have been responsible for melting of ice and break-out of water in areas not directly connected to volcanic activity. Aside from water, liquid SO2 could explain at least some of the erosion features on the Martian surface.

Waenke, H.↗

Effects of aerosol from biomass burning on the global radiation budget

An analysis is made of the likely contribution of smoke particles from biomass burning to the global radiation balance. These particles act to reflect solar radiation directly; they also can act as cloud condensation nuclei, increasing the reflectivity of clouds. Together these effects, although uncertain, may add up globally to a cooling effect as large as 2 watts per square meter, comparable to the estimated contribution to sulfate aerosols. Anthropogenic increases of smoke emission thus may have helped weaken the net greenhouse warming from anthropogenic trace gases.

Penner, Joyce E.↗

Evolution of the Martian atmosphere: The role of the polar caps

Lines of evidence indicate that early in Mars' history, it had a much thicker CO2 atmosphere than it does today. A model was constructed for the evolution of the Martian atmosphere that self consistently calculates the rates at which CO2 is stored in Mars' polar reservoirs. Given some initial abundance, which is assumed to be entirely in the atmosphere, the model calculates the annually averaged temperature of the equatorial region and the polar region, and the planetwide mean. Thus far, results obtained for the case where CO2 condensation in the atmosphere is not a limiting factor. Results fall into two categories: initial inventories above 1 bar and below 1 bar. For inventories above 1 bar, CO2 is partitioned between the atmosphere and regolith with the latter taking up almost 800 mbar of CO2. The rest remains in the atmosphere and is weathered out at a rate proportional to atmospheric pressure. For values less than 1 bar, the evolution scenario is different, polar caps form immediately since there is not enough greenhouse warming to prevent CO2 from going into the regolith and thereby reducing the atmospheric pressure to levels where caps can form. The results do not favor either scenario.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Sea level variation

Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect estimates of global sea level acceleration for time spans of less than about 50 years. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a reliable leading indicator of climate change in less than many decades. This time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms, and then removed from the tide gauge records.

Douglas, Bruce C.↗

Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

Jenkins, Lyle M.↗

Satellite observation of lake ice as a climate indicator - Initial results from statewide monitoring in Wisconsin

The research reported herein focused on the general hypothesis that satellite remote sensing of large-area, long-term trends in lake ice phenology (formation and breakup) is a robust, integrated measure of regional and global climate change. To validate this hypothesis, we explored the use of data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to discriminate the presence and extent of lake ice during the winter of 1990-1991 on the 45 lakes and reservoirs in Wisconsin with a surface area greater than 1,000 hectares. Our results suggest both the feasibility of using the AVHRR to determine the date of lake ice breakup as well as the strong correlation (R= -0.87) of the date so derived with local surface-based temperature measurements. These results suggest the potential of using current and archival satellite data to monitor changes in the date of lake ice breakup as a means of detecting regional 'signals' of greenhouse warming.

Wynne, Randolph H.↗

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Lee, Robert B., III↗

Mars and the early Sun

Global mean temperatures near 273 K on early Mars are difficult to explain in the context of standards solar evolution models. Even assuming maximum CO2 greenhouse warming, the required flux is approximately 15 percent too low. Here we consider two astrophysical models that could increase the flux by this amount. The first model is a nonstandard solar model in which the early Sun had a mass somewhat greater than today's mass (1.02-1.06 solar mass). The second model is based on a standard evolutionary solar model, but the ecliptic flux is increased due to focusing by an (expected) heavily spotted early Sun.

Whitmire, D. P.↗

Biospheric effects of a large extraterrestrial impact: Case study of the cretaceous/tertiary boundary crater

The Chicxulub impact crater, buried in the Yucatan carbonate platform in Mexico, is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. A recently discovered Chicxulub ejecta deposit in Belize contains evidence of carbonate vaporization and precipitation from the vapor plume. Sulfate clasts are almost absent in the Belize ejecta, but are abundant in the coarse ejecta near the crater rim, hwich may reflect the greater abundance of sulfates deep in the target section. The absence of sulfate precipitates in Belize may indicate that most of the vaporized sulfur was deposited in the upper atmosphere. Hydrocode modeling of the impact indicates that between 0.4 to 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact in sulfates. Laser experiments indicate that SO2, SO3, and SO4 are produced, and that complex chemical reactions between plume constituents occur during condensation. The sulfur released as SO3 or SO4 converted rapidly into H2HO4 aerosol. A radiative transfer model coupled with a model of coagulation predicts that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if it contained impurities. The sulfur released as SO2 converted to aerosol slowly due to the rate limiting oxidation of SO2. Radiative transfer calculations combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20 percent of normal for a period of 8-13 years. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 Wm(exp -2), which far exceeded the +8 Wm(exp -2) greenhouse warming caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Pope, Kevin O.↗

Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: Results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model

The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

Pope, Kevin O.↗

The tropospheric emission spectrometer (TES) for the Earth Observing System (EOS)

In recent years, increasing concern has been expressed about Global Change - the natural and anthropogenic alteration of the Earth's environment involving global greenhouse warming and the associated climate change, urban and regional atmospheric pollution, acid deposition, regional increases in tropospheric zone, and the decrease in stratospheric ozone. A common theme among these problems is that they all involve those tropospheric trace gases which are fundamental to the biosphere-troposphere interaction, the chemistry of the free troposphere itself, and troposphere-stratosphere exchange. The chemical species involved all have spectral signatures within the near and mid infrared that can now be measured by advanced techniques of remote-sensing infrared spectroradiometry. Such a system is the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), now in Phase B definition for the Earth Observing System (EOS) polar platforms. TES addresses these objectives by obtaining radiometrically calibrated, linewidth-limited spectral resolution, infrared spectra of the lower atmosphere using both natural thermal emission and reflected sunlight (where appropriate) in three different, but fully programmable, modes: a gobal mode, a pointed mode, and a limb-viewing mode. The goals of TES, its instrumentation, operational modes, sensitivity and data handling are discussed.

Beer, R.↗

Biospheric effects of volatiles produced by the Chicxulub Cretaceous/Tertiary impact

The meteorite impact that formed the Chicxulub crater 65 million years ago caused a mass extinction of life. Analyses indicate that the projectile was either a 9.4-16.8 km diameter asteroid or a 14.2-24.0 km diameter comet. We estimate that 200 gigatons each of S02 and H2O were deposited globally in the stratosphere by the impact into water saturated sulfate-rich sediments. Conversion of these gases into sulfuric acid aerosols blocked an average of 68 percent of the sun's radiation for a period of 12 years. Global average temperatures probably dropped to near freezing in 5 years and remained near or below freezing for 7 years. Greenhouse warming due to impact-generated C02 was negligible, hence global cooling from sulfates was the major cause of climate change and contributed greatly to the mass extinction.

Pope, Kevin O.↗

Research and Educational Opportunities with NASA GSFC

The research carried out in the Earth sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentation. These research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth System Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. There are 4 major laboratories in the directorate and 2 organizations that focus on scientific information technology. These laboratories focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change). Two of the labs also have branches that focus on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies. In the information technologies, areas of scientific and technical research, and expertise include massively parallel computers, technologies for high speed electronic networks, scientific visualization, information systems, archive and distribution systems, and information processing. Examples will be presented from each of these research disciplines.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗

Earth System Science at NASA: Teleconnections Between Sea Surface Temperature and Epidemics in Africa

The research carried out in the Earth Sciences in NASA and at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentations. In addition, one research project that links sea surface temperature to epidemics in Africa will be highlighted. At GSFC research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. These organizations focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change), on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies, and on information technologies, that enable support of scientific and technical research.

Meeson, Blanche W.↗