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Linearization errors in discrete goal-oriented error estimation

This paper is concerned with goal-oriented a posteriori error estimation for nonlinear functionals in the context of nonlinear variational problems solved with continuous Galerkin finite element discretizations. A two-level, or discrete, adjoint-based approach for error estimation is considered. The traditional method to derive an error estimate in this context requires linearizing both the nonlinear variational form and the nonlinear functional of interest which introduces linearization errors into the error estimate. In this paper, we investigate these linearization errors. In particular, we develop a novel discrete goal-oriented error estimate that accounts for traditionally neglected nonlinear terms at the expense of greater computational cost. We demonstrate how this error estimate can be used to drive mesh adaptivity. Here, we show that accounting for linearization errors in the error estimate can improve its effectivity for several nonlinear model problems and quantities of interest. We also demonstrate that an adaptive strategy based on the newly proposed estimate can lead to more accurate approximations of the nonlinear functional with fewer degrees of freedom when compared to uniform refinement and traditional adjoint-based approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Goal-oriented a-posteriori estimation of model error as an aid to parameter estimation

In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.

A-posterior estimates↗

Sustainability of the U.S. Manufacturing Sector: Use of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

The United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) aim to improve health and education, reduce inequality, and encourage economic growth, while also preserving or improving the conditions of our oceans and forests. Pursuing these SDGs would mean $12 trillion in economic opportunities for companies, while also improving the lives of all people and bettering the planet. Some manufacturing companies are already focusing on sustainability, but not all. In 2019, almost 30% of National Association of Manufacturers members did not have a sustainable policy, goals, or program in place. Business drivers for sustainability and the SDGs are similar, with focuses on economic growth and consumer demands. Despite the shortcomings of the SDGs, they represent an opportunity for manufacturing companies to further improve energy, material efficiency, and productivity. This report evaluates the SDGs and the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector was analyzed using the technology assessments (TAs) introduced in the 2015 Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) review, which focused on concepts, challenges, and solutions to meet the United States' energy needs. Annual or sustainability reporting of companies performing work in one of those TAs were analyzed for mentions of the SDGs. The call-out boxes throughout this report provide examples of companies making progress toward the SDGs. The possible overlap between the SDGs and the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) was also evaluated. The TAs in the 2015 QTR Review were furthered with detailed targets in the draft Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP) for Fiscal Years 2017-2021. Direct and likely relationships between the SDGs and the TAs were established. Positives, challenges, SDG-related literature, and future steps are also discussed in this report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effects of Production of Woody Pellets in the Southeastern United States on the Sustainable Development Goals

Wood-based pellets are produced in the southeastern United States (SE US) and shipped to Europe for the generation of heat and power. Effects of pellet production on selected Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) are evaluated using industry information, available energy consumption data, and published research findings. Challenges associated with identifying relevant SDG goals and targets for this particular bioenergy supply chain and potential deleterious impacts are also discussed. We find that production of woody pellets in the SE US and shipments to displace coal for energy in Europe generate positive effects on affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), industry innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), and life on land (SDG 15). Primary strengths of the pellet supply chain in the SE US are the provisioning of employment in depressed rural areas and the displacement of fossil fuels. Weaknesses are associated with potential impacts on air, water, and biodiversity that arise if the resource base and harvest activities are improperly managed. The SE US pellet supply chain provides an opportunity for transition to low-carbon industries and innovations while incentivizing better resource management.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Process intensification education contributes to sustainable development goals. Part 1

In 2015 all the United Nations (UN) member states adopted 17 sustainable development goals (UN-SDG) as part of the 2030 Agenda, which is a 15-year plan to meet ambitious targets to eradicate poverty, protect the environment, and improve the quality of life around the world. Although the global community has progressed, the pace of implementation must accelerate to reach the UN-SDG time-line. For this to happen, professionals, institutions, companies, governments and the general public must become cognizant of the challenges that our world faces and the potential technological solutions at hand, including those provided by chemical engineering. Process intensification (PI) is a recent engineering approach with demonstrated potential to significantly improve process efficiency and safety while reducing cost. It offers opportunities for attaining the UN-SDG goals in a cost-effective and timely manner. However, the pedagogical tools to educate undergraduate, graduate students, and professionals active in the field of PI lack clarity and focus. This paper sets out the state-of-the-art, main discussion points and guidelines for enhanced PI teaching, deliberated by experts in PI with either an academic or industrial background, as well as representatives from government and specialists in pedagogy gathered at the Lorentz Center (Leiden, The Netherlands) in June 2019 with the aim of uniting the efforts on education in PI and produce guidelines. In this Part 1, we discuss the societal and industrial needs for an educational strategy in the framework of PI. The terminology and background information on PI, as it relates to educational implementation in industry and academia, are provided as a preamble to Part 2, which presents practical examples that will help educating on Process Intensification.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analysis of water–energy nexus and trends in support of the sustainable development goals: A study using longitudinal water–energy use data

Water and energy are two critical natural resources necessary for human activities and socioeconomic development. Water and energy systems are highly interdependent, and water efficiency and energy efficiency are two related indicators for the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. It is critical to improve energy–water use efficiency to sustain socioeconomic development while reducing adverse effects on natural resources, society and the environment. By using longitudinal energy–water use data for China over the past 21 years, this paper develops a temporo-spatial study to address key issues and introduce analytical approaches needed to understand the water–energy nexus and support integrated resource planning and management to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Decomposition analysis indicates that the production effect was the dominating factor contributing the increase in the country's energy–water use, while energy–water efficiency is the major factor slowing the growth of the country's energy–water use. Changes and trends analyses show that the country's energy intensity, water intensity, and water/energy ratio significantly decreased from 1999 to 2019, but the rate of decline has slowed. The disparities of the country's provincial energy intensities, water intensities, and water/energy ratios significantly decreased with economic growth. Results suggest that improving energy–water efficiency is critical for the country to curb increasing energy and water use and achieve resource and environmental protection targets with rapid economic development. Furthermore, the disparities between regional energy-water efficiencies can be reduced along with economic growth, while an overheated economy can widen the disparities and result in unsustainable and inefficient utilization of resources. Government coordination, targets and policy as part of the efficiency governance system are critical for continuous energy–water efficiency improvement and directly influence the implementation and effectiveness of energy–water efficiency policy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Simons Observatory: science goals and forecasts for the enhanced Large Aperture Telescope

We describe updated scientific goals for the wide-field, millimeter-wave survey that will be produced by the Simons Observatory (SO). Significant upgrades to the 6-meter SO Large Aperture Telescope (LAT) are expected to be complete by 2028, and will include a doubled mapping speed with 30,000 new detectors and an automated data reduction pipeline. In addition, a new photovoltaic array will supply most of the observatory's power. The LAT survey will cover about 60% of the sky at a regular observing cadence, with five times the angular resolution and ten times the map depth of the Planck satellite. The science goals are to: (1) determine the physical conditions in the early universe and constrain the existence of new light particles; (2) measure the integrated distribution of mass, electron pressure, and electron momentum in the late-time universe, and, in combination with optical surveys, determine the neutrino mass and the effects of dark energy via tomographic measurements of the growth of structure at redshifts z ≲ 3; (3) measure the distribution of electron density and pressure around galaxy groups and clusters, and calibrate the effects of energy input from galaxy formation on the surrounding environment; (4) produce a sample of more than 30,000 galaxy clusters, and more than 100,000 extragalactic millimeter sources, including regularly sampled AGN light-curves, to study these sources and their emission physics; (5) measure the polarized emission from magnetically aligned dust grains in our Galaxy, to study the properties of dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation; (6) constrain asteroid regoliths, search for Trans-Neptunian Objects, and either detect or eliminate large portions of the phase space in the search for Planet 9; and (7) provide a powerful new window into the transient universe on time scales of minutes to years, concurrent with observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory of overlapping sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying Energy Justice Goals in the Power Sector: Developing and Using Metrics

New policy goals are explicitly guiding the future grid toward greater energy equity. At the same time, policy goals also guide the grid toward decarbonization and resilience, while maintaining cost, security, and reliability cornerstone requirements. In conclusion, these pressures create a dilemma: moving urgently to address climate change and respond to energy disruptions, but also slowly to engage communities on the climate frontlines in earnest.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The impact of interventions in the global land and agri-food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and maintain or increase food production to 2050. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative synergies with and trade-offs against different social and environmental goals has been difficult without direct comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined a series of 40 different options, implemented through land, value chain or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature’s Contributions to People (also known as ecosystem services) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. We find that a relatively small number of interventions show significant positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, agricultural diversification, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, management of invasive species, sustainable source, and reduced post-harvest losses. Several interventions show strong negative impacts on either SDGs, NCPs or in some cases, both; these include bioenergy and BECCS, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of benefits and trade-offs of comparative policy approaches can help decision-makers choose the most effective, or at the very minimum, benign interventions for implementation in specific contexts.

Mcelwee, Pam↗

Model-based Design Optimization to Achieve the Performance Goals (16.0 SEER/9.5 HSPF), Developing Heat Pump by Using Low-GWP Refrigerants and 5 mm Diameter Tubes

Usage of low-GWP refrigerants can reduce the Green House Gas (GHG) emission of HVAC systems. Our research in previous milestone report has shown that using heat exchangers with 5 mm diameter tubes instead of 9 mm diameter tubes is a promising solution to meet the performance goals of heat pump using low-GWP refrigerants. In addition, the 5mm tube heat exchangers can lead to lower system refrigerant charge and as a result, reduce environmental impact further. However, shifting to small tube diameters requires in-depth heat exchanger design optimization to adapt to the transition to low-GWP refrigerants. In the 2nd quarter of FY21, we conducted multi-objective optimizations using Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm on a residential 5-ton air source heat pump to investigate the potential system performance improvements and material savings. 4 low-GWP refrigerants, ARM20A, ARM20B, R454A and R454C are investigated in this study. The objectives of the optimization are to minimize the heat pump material cost and to maximize the system performance simultaneously. As a result, the HXs material cost is reduced by up to 77% according to the copper and aluminum material price in current market. Under heating mode operation, the smart 4-way valve guarantees that the optimal low-GWP systems maintain or outperform the heating performance of the R410A baseline system. The model-based design optimization yields 18.3-18.9 SEER and 10.6-11.9 HSPF for optimal systems using different low-GWP refrigerants. The initial performance goals (16.0 SEER/9.5 HSPF) are achieved. Furthermore, up to 50% system refrigerant charge reduction is possible in the optimized low-GWP heat pump system using ARM20B. And 91%-95% predicted life-time direct CO 2 emission reduction is achieved by using the optimal 5mm tube low-GWP heat pumps. The significant material saving, charge reduction and direct CO 2 emission reduction help in reducing the environmental impacts of heat pump systems. The optimal heat exchangers resulting from this research can fit into the original baseline indoor and outdoor fan-coil unit. This can reduce the retrofitting effort by minimizing the change in manufacturing and installation of the heat pumps and guarantee the compatibility with end-users’ house structure. Finally, the new products can be easily accepted by manufacturers and end-users.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Biota Modeling in EPA’s Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration Calculators for Use in EPA Superfund Risk Assessment: Explanation of Intake Rate Derivation, Transfer Factor Compilation, and Mass Loading Factor Sources

The Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) calculators are screening level risk assessment tools that set forth the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recommended approaches and currently available risk assessment guidance for response actions at Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) sites, commonly known as Superfund. The environmental screening levels derived by the PRG and DCC calculators are used to identify isotopes contributing the highest risk and dose as well as establish preliminary remediation goals. Each calculator has residential gardening and subsistence farmer exposure scenarios that model transfer of contaminants from soil and water into various types of biota (crops and animal products). New publications of human intake rates of biota; farm animal intakes of water, soil, and fodder; and soil to plant interactions require updates be implemented into the PRG and DCC calculators. Recent improvements in the biota modeling for these calculators include newly derived biota intake rates, enhanced soil mass loading factors (MLFs), and more comprehensive soil to plant transfer factors (BV’s) and soil to tissue transfer factors (TFs) for animals. New biota have been added in both the produce and animal products categories that greatly improve the accuracy and utility of the PRG and DCC calculators and encompass greater geographic diversity on a national and international scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the 200-IA-1 Preliminary Remediation Goal Saturated Zone Abstraction

In order to develop and evaluate alternatives for remediation of waste sites constituting the 200-IA-1 Operable Unit (OU), a focused feasibility study (FFS) is currently underway. The 200-IA-1 OU FFS requires preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) protective of groundwater be evaluated which includes estimates of fate and transport of contaminants in the groundwater from multiple sources within the Central Plateau Inner Area. This document details the application of the Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model version 8.3 to predict the flow of groundwater on the Central Plateau for the 10,000-year simulation to support the 200-IA-1 OU PRG calculation. The simulated flow field will support the simulation of fate and transport of contaminants for use in estimating peak unit-length concentration as part of the 200-IA-1 OU PRG calculation presented in a separate environmental calculation file (ECF) (ECF-200IA1-20-0108, Determination of Preliminary Remediation Goals for 200-IA-1 Source Operable Unit).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

State Energy Offices’ Engagement in Electric Distribution Planning to Meet State Policy Goals

NASEO and Berkeley Lab released a new publication on State Energy Offices’ Engagement in Electric Distribution Planning to Meet State Policy Goals. State and Territory Energy Offices develop plans, programs, policies, and projects that have a substantial impact on electric distribution systems. They also can participate in distribution system planning (DSP) processes to help ensure that utilities – consumer- and investor-owned – meet the state’s future energy needs. This paper recognizes the wide spectrum of roles that State Energy Offices can play in DSP processes, including planning for distributed energy resources and grid modernization. It highlights various examples of non-regulatory activities by State Energy Offices including planning, conducting studies, convening stakeholder processes, and implementing programs that inform and contribute to distribution system planning. It also provides examples of State Energy Offices’ engagement in proceedings before their respective public utility commissions. As State Energy Offices face myriad challenges associated with meeting state policy goals, preparing for anticipated rates of distributed energy resource deployment, addressing concerns regarding grid reliability and resilience, and recommending and making long-term investment decisions, the examples provided through this guide can serve as a resource in navigating those challenges.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Opportunities for agrivoltaic systems to achieve synergistic food-energy-environmental needs and address sustainability goals

Achieving decarbonization goals to address global climate change and increasing energy needs requires significant continued investments in solar energy. The expansion of utility-scale solar development across the globe has increased the pressure on land resources for energy generation and other land uses (e.g., agriculture, biodiversity conservation). To address this growing issue, greater emphasis has been placed on solar development strategies that maximize the benefits of solar energy generation and multiple ecosystem services, such as the development of agrivoltaics systems that co-locate solar energy production and various forms of conservation and agricultural land uses. The purpose of this paper is to systematically synthesize the potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics and summarize how these development strategies could address several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our review will focus on four broad potential ecosystem services of agrivoltaics: (1) energy and economic benefits; (2) agricultural provisioning services of food production and animal husbandry; (3) biodiversity conservation; and (4) regulating ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and water and soil conservation. In particular, we will highlight the state of the science, challenges, and knowledge gaps that represent opportunities for further study to better understand how solar energy deployment can facilitate sustainable development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The One-hundred-deg 2 DECam Imaging in Narrowbands (ODIN): Survey Design and Science Goals

We describe the survey design and science goals for One-hundred-deg 2 DECam Imaging in Narrowbands (ODIN), a NOIRLab survey using the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) to obtain deep (AB ~ 25.7) narrowband images over an unprecedented area of sky. The three custom-built narrowband filters, N419, N501, and N673, have central wavelengths of 419, 501, and 673 nm and respective FWHM of 7.5, 7.6, and 10.0 nm, corresponding to Lyα at z = 2.4, 3.1, and 4.5 and cosmic times of 2.8, 2.1, and 1.4 Gyr, respectively. When combined with even deeper, public broadband data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam, DECam, and in the future, the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the ODIN narrowband images will enable the selection of over 100,000 Lyα-emitting (LAE) galaxies at these epochs. ODIN-selected LAEs will identify protoclusters as galaxy overdensities, and the deep narrowband images enable detection of highly extended Lyα blobs (LABs). Primary science goals include measuring the clustering strength and dark matter halo connection of LAEs, LABs, and protoclusters, and their respective relationship to filaments in the cosmic web. The three epochs allow for the redshift evolution of these properties to be determined during the period known as Cosmic Noon, where star formation was at its peak. The narrowband filter wavelengths are designed to enable interloper rejection and further scientific studies by revealing [O II] and [O III] at z = 0.34, Lyα and He II 1640 at z = 3.1, and Lyman continuum plus Lyα at z = 4.5. Ancillary science includes similar studies of the lower-redshift emission-line galaxy samples and investigations of nearby starforming galaxies resolved into numerous [O III] and [S II] emitting regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ground Operations Aerospace Language (GOAL)

GOAL, is a test engineer oriented language designed to be used to standardize procedure terminology and as the test programming language to be used for ground checkout operations in a space vehicle launch environment. The material presented concerning GOAL includes: (1) a historical review, (2) development objectives and requirements, (3) language scope and format, and (4) language capabilities.

Source record↗

Ground Operations Aerospace Language (GOAL). Volume 1: Study overview

A series of NASA and Contractor studies sponsored by NASA/KSC resulted in a specification for the Ground Operations Aerospace Language (GOAL). The Cape Kennedy Facility of the IBM Corporation was given the responsibility, under existing contracts, to perform an analysis of the Language Specification, to design and develop a GOAL Compiler, to provide a specification for a data bank, to design and develop an interpretive code translator, and to perform associated application studies.

Source record↗