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NASA NTRS2004

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model User's Guide

The Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model was developed as an implementation of the Fratar algorithm to project future traffic flow between airports in a system and of then scheduling the additional flights to reflect current passenger time-of-travel preferences. The methodology produces an unconstrained future schedule from a current (or baseline) schedule and the airport operations growth rates. As an example of the use of the model, future schedules are projected for 2010 and 2022 for all flights arriving at, departing from, or flying between all continental United States airports that had commercial scheduled service for May 17, 2002. Inter-continental US traffic and airports are included and the traffic is also grown with the Fratar methodology to account for their arrivals and departures to the continental US airports. Input data sets derived from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) data and FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) are included in the examples of the computer code execution.

Kimmel, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Future Air Traffic Growth and Schedule Model, Supplement

Kimmel, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Forward Contamination of the Moon and Mars: Implications for Future Life Detection Missions

NASA and ESA have outlined new visions for solar system exploration that will include a series of lunar robotic missions to prepare for, and support a human return to the Moon, and future human exploration of Mars and other destinations. One of the guiding principles for exploration is to pursue compelling scientific questions about the origin and evolution of life. The search for life on objects such as Mars will require that all spacecraft and instrumentation be sufficiently cleaned and sterilized prior to launch to ensure that the scientific integrity of extraterrestrial samples is not jeopardized by terrestrial organic contamination. Under COSPAR's current planetary protection policy for the Moon, no sterilization procedures are required for outbound lunar spacecraft. Nonetheless, future in situ investigations of a variety of locations on the Moon by highly sensitive instruments designed to search for biologically derived organic compounds would help assess the contamination of the Moon by lunar spacecraft. These studies could also provide valuable "ground truth" data for Mars sample return missions and help define planetary protection requirements for future Mars bound spacecraft carrying life detection experiments. In addition, studies of the impact of terrestrial contamination of the lunar surface by the Apollo astronauts could provide valuable data to help refine future Mars surface exploration plans for a human mission to Mars.

Glavin, Daniel P.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Future Flight Decks

The evolution of commercial transport flight deck configurations over the past 20-30 years and expected future developments are described. Key factors in the aviation environment are identified that the authors expect will significantly affect flight deck designers. One of these is the requirement for commercial aviation accident rate reduction, which is probably required if global commercial aviation is to grow as projected. Other factors include the growing incrementalism in flight deck implementation, definition of future airspace operations, and expectations of a future pilot corps that will have grown up with computers. Future flight deck developments are extrapolated from observable factors in the aviation environment, recent research results in the area of pilot-centered flight deck systems, and by considering expected advances in technology that are being driven by other than aviation requirements. The authors hypothesize that revolutionary flight deck configuration changes will be possible with development of human-centered flight deck design methodologies that take full advantage of commercial and/or entertainment-driven technologies.

Arbuckle, P. Douglas↗

NASA NTRS2006

Aerocapture Benefits to Future Science Missions

NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Program is investing in technologies to revolutionize the robotic exploration of deep space. One of these technologies is Aerocapture, the most promising of the "aeroassist" techniques used to maneuver a space vehicle within an atmosphere, using aerodynamic forces in lieu of propellant. (Other aeroassist techniques include aeroentry and aerobraking.) Aerocapture relies on drag atmospheric drag to decelerate an incoming spacecraft and capture it into orbit. This technique is very attractive since it permits spacecraft to be launched from Earth at higher velocities, providing shorter trip times and saving mass and overall cost on future missions. Recent aerocapture systems analysis studies quantify the benefits of aerocapture to future exploration. The 2002 Titan aerocapture study showed that using aerocapture at Titan instead of conventional propulsive capture results in over twice as much payload delivered to Titan. Aerocapture at Venus results in almost twice the payload delivered to Venus as with aerobraking, and over six times more mass delivered into orbit than all-propulsive capture. Aerocapture at Mars shows significant benefits as the payload sizes increase and as missions become more complex. Recent Neptune aerocapture studies show that aerocapture opens up entirely new classes of missions at Neptune. Current aerocapture technology development is advancing the maturity of each subsystem technology needed for successful implementation of aerocapture on future missions. Recent development has focused on both rigid aeroshell and inflatable aerocapture systems. Rigid aeroshell systems development includes new ablative and non-ablative thermal protection systems, advanced aeroshell performance sensors, lightweight structures and higher temperature adhesives. Inflatable systems such as trailing tethered and clamped "ballutes" and inflatable aeroshells are also under development. Computational tools required to support future aerocapture missions are an integral part of aerocapture development. Tools include engineering reference atmosphere models, guidance and navigation algorithms, aerothermodynamic modeling, and flight simulation.

Artis, Gwen↗

NASA NTRS2008

Current Scientific Progress and Future Scientific Prospects Enabled by Spaceborne Precipitation Radar Measurements

First, we examine current scientific progress and understanding that have been possible through use of spaceborne precipitation radar measurements being provided by the TRMM and CloudSat satellites. Second, we look across a future 20-year time frame to assess how and why anticipated improvements in space radar systems will further advance scientific progress into topic areas once considered beyond the realm of space-based remote sensing. JAXA's 13.8 GHz Ku-band cross-track scanning Precipitation Radar (PR) developed for flight on NASA's non-sun-synchronous, diurnally-precessing TRMM satellite, was the first Earth radar flown in space that was designed specifically for precipitation measurement. Its proven accuracy in measuring global rainfall in the tropics and sub-tropics and its unanticipated longevity in continuing these measurements beyond a full decade have established the standards against which all follow-up and future space radars will be evaluated. In regards to the current PR measurement time series, we will discuss a selection of major scientific discoveries and impacts which have set the stage for future radar measuring systems. In fact, the 2nd contemporary space radar applicable for terrestrial precipitation measurement, i.e., JPL-CSA's 94 GHz nadir-staring Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) flown on NASA's sun-synchronous CloudSat satellite, although designed primarily for measurement of non-precipitating cloud hydrometeors and aerosols, has also unquestionably advanced precipitation measurement because CPR's higher frequency and greatly increased sensitivity (approximately 30 dBZ) has enabled global observations of light rain rate spectrum processes (i.e., rain rates below 0.05 mm per hourand of precipitation processes in the high troposphere (particularly ice phase processes). These processes are beyond reach of the TRMM radar because the PR sensitivity limit is approximately 17 dBZ which means its lower rain rate cutoff is around 0.3 mm per hour and its vertical profiling acuity is greatly limited above the melting layer. Thus, the newer CPR measurements have become important for a variety of scientific reasons that will be highlighted and assessed. In considering scientific progress likely to stem from future precipitation radar systems, we will specifically examine possible scientific impacts from three anticipated missions for which NASA and various of its space agency partners are expected to lead the way. These three missions are: (1) the nearterm Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) Mission; (2) the decadal timeline Aerosol and Cloud Experiment (ACE) Mission; and the post-decadal timeline NEXRAD in Space (NIS) Mission. The observational capabilities of the planned radar systems for each of these three satellite missions are distinct from each other and each provides progressive improvements in precipitation measuring and scientific research capabilities relative to where we are now -- insofar as TRMM PR and the CloudSat CPR capabilities. The potential innovations in scientific research will be discussed in a framework of likely synergisms between next-generation radar capabilities and accessible dynamical and microphysical properties that have heretofore evaded detection.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Preliminary Analysis of ISS Maintenance History and Implications for Supportability of Future Missions

The International Space Station (ISS) enables the study of supportability issues associated with long-duration human spaceflight. The ISS is a large, complex spacecraft that must be maintained by its crew. In contrast to the Space Shuttle Orbiter vehicle, but similar to spacecraft that will be component elements of future missions beyond low-Earth orbit, ISS does not return to the ground for servicing and provisioning of spares is severely constrained by transportation limits. Although significant technical support is provided by ground personnel, all hands-on maintenance tasks are performed by the crew. It is expected that future missions to distant destinations will be further limited by lack of resupply opportunities and will, eventually, become largely independent of ground support. ISS provides an opportunity to begin learning lessons that will enable future missions to be successful. Data accumulated over the first several years of ISS operations have been analyzed to gain a better understanding of maintenance-related workload. This analysis addresses both preventive and corrective maintenance and includes all U.S segment core systems. Systems and tasks that are major contributors to workload are identified. As further experience accrues, lessons will be learned that will influence future system designs so that they require less maintenance and, when maintenance is required, it can be performed more efficiently. By heeding the lessons of ISS it will be possible to identify system designs that should be more robust and point towards advances in both technology and design that will offer the greatest return on investment.

Watson, Kevin J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

In Situ Biological Contamination Studies of the Moon: Implications for Future Planetary Protection and Life Detection Missions

NASA and ESA have outlined visions for solar system exploration that will include a series of lunar robotic precursor missions to prepare for, and support a human return to the Moon, and future human exploration of Mars and other destinations. One of the guiding principles for exploration is to pursue compelling scientific questions about the origin and evolution of life. The search for life on objects such as Mars will require that all spacecraft and instrumentation be sufficiently cleaned and sterilized prior to launch to ensure that the scientific integrity of extraterrestrial samples is not jeopardized by terrestrial organic contamination. Under the Committee on Space Research's (COSPAR's) current planetary protection policy for the Moon, no sterilization procedures are required for outbound lunar spacecraft, nor is there yet a planetary protection category for human missions. Future in situ investigations of a variety of locations on the Moon by highly sensitive instruments designed to search for biologically derived organic compounds would help assess the contamination of the Moon by lunar spacecraft. These studies could also provide valuable "ground truth" data for Mars sample return missions and help define planetary protection requirements for future Mars bound spacecraft carrying life detection experiments. In addition, studies of the impact of terrestrial contamination of the lunar surface by the Apollo astronauts could provide valuable data to help refine future Mars surface exploration plans for a human mission to Mars.

Glavin, Daniel P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Parametric Analysis of Life Support Systems for Future Space Exploration Missions

Having adopted a flexible path approach to space exploration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is in a process of evaluating future targets for space exploration. In order to maintain the welfare of a crew during future missions, a suite of life support technology is responsible for oxygen and water generation, carbon dioxide control, the removal of trace concentrations of organic contaminants, processing and recovery of water, and the storage and reclamation of solid waste. For each particular life support subsystem, a variety competing technologies either exist or are under aggressive development efforts. Each individual technology has strengths and weaknesses with regard to launch mass, power and cooling requirements, volume of hardware and consumables, and crew time requirements for operation. However, from a system level perspective, the favorability of each life support architecture is better assessed when the sub-system technologies are analyzed in aggregate. In order to evaluate each specific life support system architecture, the measure of equivalent system mass (ESM) was employed to benchmark system favorability. Moreover, the results discussed herein will be from the context of loop-closure with respect to the air, water, and waste sub-systems. Specifically, closure relates to the amount of consumables mass that crosses the boundary of the vehicle over the lifetime of a mission. As will be demonstrated in this manuscript, the optimal level of loop closure is heavily dependent upon mission requirements such as duration and the level of extra- vehicular activity (EVA) performed. Sub-system level trades were also considered as a function of mission duration to assess when increased loop closure is practical. Although many additional factors will likely merit consideration in designing life support systems for future missions, the ESM results described herein provide a context for future architecture design decisions toward a flexible path program.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Parametric Analysis of Life Support Systems for Future Space Exploration Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is in a process of evaluating future targets for space exploration. In order to maintain the welfare of a crew during future missions, a suite of life support technology is responsible for oxygen and water generation, carbon dioxide control, the removal of trace concentrations of organic contaminants, processing and recovery of water, and the storage and reclamation of solid waste. For each particular life support subsystem, a variety competing technologies either exist or are under aggressive development efforts. Each individual technology has strengths and weaknesses with regard to launch mass, power and cooling requirements, volume of hardware and consumables, and crew time requirements for operation. However, from a system level perspective, the favorability of each life support architecture is better assessed when the sub-system technologies are analyzed in aggregate. In order to evaluate each specific life support system architecture, the measure of equivalent system mass (ESM) was employed to benchmark system favorability. Moreover, the results discussed herein will be from the context of loop-closure with respect to the air, water, and waste sub-systems. Specifically, closure relates to the amount of consumables mass that crosses the boundary of the vehicle over the lifetime of a mission. As will be demonstrated in this manuscript, the optimal level of loop closure is heavily dependent upon mission requirements such as duration and the level of extra-vehicular activity (EVA) performed. Sub-system level trades were also considered as a function of mission duration to assess when increased loop closure is practical. Although many additional factors will likely merit consideration in designing life support systems for future missions, the ESM results described herein provide a context for future architecture design decisions toward a flexible path program.

Swickrath, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Project's Current Products and Future Directions

Since its inception in 2001, the objective of the In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) project has been developing and delivering in-space propulsion technologies that enable or enhance NASA robotic science missions. These in-space propulsion technologies are applicable, and potentially enabling for future NASA flagship and sample return missions currently under consideration, as well as having broad applicability to future Discovery and New Frontiers mission solicitations. This paper provides status of the technology development, applicability, and availability of in-space propulsion technologies that recently completed, or will be completing within the next year, their technology development and are ready for infusion into missions. The paper also describes the ISPT project s future focus on propulsion for sample return missions. The ISPT technologies completing their development are: 1) the high-temperature Advanced Material Bipropellant Rocket (AMBR) engine providing higher performance for lower cost; 2) NASA s Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) ion propulsion system, a 0.6-7 kW throttle-able gridded ion system; and 3) aerocapture technologies which include thermal protection system (TPS) materials and structures, guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) models of blunt-body rigid aeroshells; and atmospheric and aerothermal effect models. The future technology development areas for ISPT are: 1) Planetary Ascent Vehicles (PAV); 2) multi-mission technologies for Earth Entry Vehicles (MMEEV) needed for sample return missions from many different destinations; 3) propulsion for Earth Return Vehicles (ERV) and transfer stages, and electric propulsion for sample return and low cost missions; 4) advanced propulsion technologies for sample return; and 5) Systems/Mission Analysis focused on sample return propulsion.

Anderson, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Progress on the Development of Future Airport Surface Wireless Communications Network

Continuing advances in airport surface management and improvements in airport surface safety are required to enable future growth in air traffic throughout the airspace, as airport arrival and departure delays create a major system bottleneck. These airport management and safety advances will be built upon improved communications, navigation, surveillance, and weather sensing, creating an information environment supporting system automation. The efficient movement of the digital data generated from these systems requires an underlying communications network infrastructure to connect data sources with the intended users with the required quality of service. Current airport surface communications consists primarily of buried copper or fiber cable. Safety related communications with mobile airport surface assets occurs over 25 kHz VHF voice and data channels. The available VHF spectrum, already congested in many areas, will be insufficient to support future data traffic requirements. Therefore, a broadband wireless airport surface communications network is considered a requirement for the future airport component of the air transportation system. Progress has been made on defining the technology and frequency spectrum for the airport surface wireless communications network. The development of a test and demonstration facility and the definition of required testing and standards development are now underway. This paper will review the progress and planned future work.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Future of Space Astronomy: A Global Road Map for the Next Decades

The use of space techniques continues to play a key role in the advance of astrophysics by providing access to the entire electromagnetic spectrum from the radio observations to the high energy gamma rays. The increasing size, complexity and cost of large space observatories places a growing emphasis on international collaboration. Furthermore, combining existing and future datasets from space and ground based observatories is an emerging mode of powerful and relatively inexpensive research to address problems that can only be tackled by the application of large multi-wavelength observations. If the present set of space and ground-based astronomy facilities today is impressive and complete, with space and ground based astronomy telescopes nicely complementing each other, the situation becomes concerning and critical in the next 10-20 years. In fact, only a few main space missions are planned, possibly restricted to JWST and, perhaps, WFIRST and SPICA, since no other main facilities are already recommended. A "Working Group on the Future of Space Astronomy" was established at the 38th COSPAR Assembly held in Bremen, Germany in July 2010. The purpose of this Working Group was to establish a roadmap for future major space missions to complement future large ground-based telescopes. This paper presents the results of this study including a number of recommendations and a road map for the next decades of Space Astronomy research.

Ubertini, Pietro↗

NASA NTRS2014

Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

ice dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2013

Technology Needs to Support Future Mars Exploration

The Mars Program Planning Group (MPPG) under the direction of Dr. Orlando Figueroa, was chartered to develop options for a program-level architecture for robotic exploration of Mars consistent with the objective to send humans to Mars in the 2030's. Scientific pathways were defined for future exploration, and multiple architectural options were developed that meet current science goals and support the future human exploration objectives. Integral to the process was the identification of critical technologies which enable the future scientific and human exploration goals. This paper describes the process for technology capabilities identification and examines the critical capability needs identified in the MPPG process. Several critical enabling technologies that have been identified to support the robotic exploration goals and with potential feedforward application to human exploration goals. Potential roadmaps for the development and validation of these technologies are discussed, including options for subscale technology demonstrations of future human exploration technologies on robotic missions.

Mars Program Planning Group (MPPG)↗

NASA NTRS2009

Performance Testing of Yardney Li-Ion Cells and Batteries in Support of Future NASA Missions

NASA requires lightweight rechargeable batteries for future missions to Mars and the outer planets that are capable of operating over a wide range of temperatures, with high specific energy and energy densities. Due to the attractive performance characteristics, Li-ion batteries have been identified as the battery chemistry of choice for a number of future applications. For example, JPL is planning to launch another unmanned rover mission to the planet Mars. This mission, referred to as the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), will involve the use of a rover that is much larger than the previously developed Spirit and Opportunity Rovers for the 2003 Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission, that are currently still in operation on the surface of the planet after more than five years. Part of the reason that the MER rovers have operated so successfully, far exceeding the required mission duration of 90 sols, is that they possess robust Li-ion batteries, manufactured by Yardney Technical Products, which have demonstrated excellent life characteristics. Given the excellent performance characteristics displayed, similar Li-ion batteries have been projected to successfully meet the mission requirements of the up-coming MSL mission. In addition to future missions to Mars, Li-ion technology is attractive for a number of other future NASA applications which require high specific energy, rechargeable batteries. To ascertain the viability of using Li-ion batteries for these applications, a number of performance validation tests have been performed on both Yardney cells and batteries of various sizes. These tests include mission simulation tests, charge and discharge rate characterization testing, cycle life testing under various conditions, and storage testing.

Smart, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Modelling Bambara Groundnut Yield in Southern Africa: Towards a Climate-Resilient Future

Current agriculture depends on a few major species grown as monocultures that are supported by global research underpinning current productivity. However, many hundreds of alternative crops have the potential to meet real world challenges by sustaining humanity, diversifying agricultural systems for food and nutritional security, and especially responding to climate change through their resilience to certain climate conditions. Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilised African legume, is an exemplar crop for climate resilience. Predicted yield performances of Bambara groundnut by AquaCrop (a crop−water productivity model) were evaluated for baseline (1980−2009) and mid-century climates (2040−2069) under 20 downscaled Global Climate Models (CMIP5-RCP8.5), as well as for climate sensitivities (AgMIPC3MP) across 3 locations in Southern Africa (Botswana, South Africa, Namibia). Different land - races of Bambara groundnut originating from various semi-arid African locations showed diverse yield performances with diverse sensitivities to climate. S19 originating from hot-dry conditions in Namibia has greater future yield potential compared to the Swaziland landrace Uniswa Red-UN across study sites. South Africa has the lowest yield under the current climate, indicating positive future yield trends. Namibia reported the highest baseline yield at optimum current temperatures, indicating less yield potential in future climates. Bambara groundnut shows positive yield potential at temperatures of up to ~31degC, with further warming pushing yields down. Thus, many regions in Southern Africa can utilize Bambara groundnut successfully in the coming decades. This modelling exercise supports decisions on genotypic suitability for present and future climates at specific locations.

farm crops↗

NASA NTRS2015

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗