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Uncertainty quantification for nuclear forensics with population analyses

Although neural networks offer cutting-edge predictive power, their deployment in high-consequence nuclear forensic applications is limited, partly because of their black-box nature. Incorporating robust uncertainty quantification methods into the predictive frameworks of neural networks is progress towards their future deployment in such scenarios. This work integrates uncertainty quantification into neural networks for nuclear reactor core-average burnup estimation from simulated environmental samples. We test two regimes (homogeneous and heterogeneous events) on DeepSets and Set Transformer architectures, we find both quantify predictive uncertainty effectively, but Set Transformer excels in partitioning latent events, offering superior predictive power and more informative uncertainty estimates.

Hatton, Conner [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000804970959)↗

Forensic species identification of elasmobranchs landed in Costa Rican artisanal fisheries

Elasmobranchs represent one of the most imperiled taxa, yet few nations have developed catch limits and no international or bilateral catch limits exist. One barrier to establishing catch limits is a lack of accurate species-specific extraction rates due to many species looking similar, distinguishing characteristics (fins and head) being removed, or grouping of all elasmobranchs together in fisheries data. To better understand the species-specific impacts fisheries are having on elasmobranchs we used forensic genetic techniques to identify the types and quantities of shark species landed in Costa Rican artisanal small-scale and mid-scale fisheries. We collected elasmobranch tissue samples from fishermen in three locations along Costa Rica’s Pacific Coast: Coyote, Bejuco, and Ojochal, from April 2013 to September 2014. We used DNA barcoding techniques, utilizing a 1044 base pair region of the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene, to identify to species 275 of the 416 samples collected. Within these fisheries, seven species of shark and one ray were identified, with the scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) accounting for ~750-80% of all sharks landed. Observed total lengths (TL) for the scalloped hammerhead shark (10.9–99 cm) in these fisheries suggests the sharks sampled were all either juveniles or neonates. Based on these data it is likely that the areas from which these samples were collected represent nursery grounds for the scalloped hammerhead shark. The quantity of young scalloped hammerhead sharks removed from these areas, and ones similar to them, by these artisanal fisheries could be of great importance when determining future conservation measures for this species. We conclude our findings also indicate that sharks caught in these artisanal fisheries do not appear to represent those sold in markets around San Jose.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Short-lived photofission product yields from 238 U and 232 Th at Bremsstrahlung X-ray endpoint energies of 8, 14, and 20 MeV for nuclear forensics isotope production applications

The existing photofission product yield data sets are often based on nuclear models, and limited experimental measurements of these fission product yields have been performed. These experiments resulted in measured cumulative fission product yields (CFPYs) for 238 U and 232 Th for the bremsstrahlung X-ray endpoint energies of 8, 14, and 20 MeV. The half-lives of the reported fission products range from 1.07–40.8 s. This work is motivated by a demonstrated need for novel isotope production methods for nuclear forensics and improved nuclear data to support the nonproliferation community. A high-purity germanium detector and a pneumatic transfer system were employed for measurements of short-lived fission products, collecting data between cycles of accelerator irradiation and measurement.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Proof-of-concept chemometric approach for environmental forensic sourcing of crude oil samples using SPME-GC-MS

Environmental exposure to crude oil through seepage and spillage poses risks to the immediate environment and the broader ecosystem as areas along the oil distribution path are affected by the influx of crude petroleum as well as the environmental, economic, and civil unrest that accompanies it. There is a large financial burden associated with the lost resources, including the cost of rehabilitation, and the affected sources of revenue for communities affected by oil spills. As such, it is crucial to determine the responsible parties. This work outlines an environmental forensics approach to determining the source of an un-weathered crude oil sample. The researchers employed solid phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (SPME-GC-MS) to capture and analyze the gaseous components emitted by crude oil samples sourced from five locations. Samples were analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation and 3D covariance analysis. Both chemometric approaches yielded optimal performance results with no misclassifications, true positive rate (TPR) = 100 % and false positive rate (FPR) = 0 %. The similarity metrics calculated by each test noted clear delineations between the values of same-source and differently sourced samples. The Spearman's rank correlation test and 3D covariance calculations both demonstrated the ability to correctly identify sample source origin in this dataset. Finally, the authors outline an approach to the future application of these tests and suggest their joint use in future crude oil sourcing endeavors.

3D covariance mapping↗

Rapid Quantification of 237 U Specific Activity for Nuclear Forensics

In the event of an unattributed nuclear explosion, rapid assessment of the short-lived uranium isotope activity and mass can provide valuable information for subsequent forensic analysis. Rapid analysis in the field is enabled by using microfluidic chemistry and deployable instrumentation. Here, this work presents a flow chemistry system, controlled in LabVIEW, that integrates three functionalities: (1) selective extraction of uranium from the sample matrix via a 3D-printed supported liquid membrane module; (2) UV–visible absorbance spectrophotometry to measure the total uranium concentration in the strip flow; and (3) a portable CdTe γ-ray spectrometer coupled to a 3D-printed flow cell to measure 237 U activity concentration in the strip solution. The system was calibrated using standard solutions, and its functionality was demonstrated using a solution of depleted uranium spiked with 237 U. Uranium concentrations of 40–5000 μg/mL were directly quantified online using a 100 mm optical flow cell, while concentrations of 0.5–10 μg/mL were quantified online using a colorimetric reagent. The mass concentration measurement takes approximately 60 min while the activity concentration via γ-ray spectrometry varies depending on the activity of 237 U, with 1 kBq/mL requiring about 30 min of acquisition time to obtain <10% uncertainty at 1σ. This platform provides a fieldable approach for quantifying uranium mass and radioactivity relevant to postdetonation nuclear debris.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

𝛾-ray spectroscopy of 140 La decay for nuclear forensics applications

140 La is an important isotope in nuclear forensics. It is typically paired with 140 Ba as a chronometer for dating nuclear events. Here, in this work, we report the results of two measurements performed to fully characterize the decay scheme of 140 La. The experiments were performed using the Gammasphere array at Argonne National Laboratory and the CLARION2 array at Florida State University. Sources of 140 La were produced through neutron irradiation of natural lanthanum (99.9% 139 La) in the University of Massachusetts Lowell research reactor. We identify a total of 40 transitions, three of which were not previously reported. An angular correlation analysis was conducted confirming current literature 𝐽 assignments and mixing ratios. By considering all data available in the literature, we provide new recommended values for the intensities of the strongest transitions commonly used in applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development of spectroscopic tools for nuclear forensics signatures development

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has been developing advanced spectroscopic tools for the characterization of plutonium-bearing compounds with the intent to develop material and process signatures for nuclear forensics. Plutonium in a production, refining, or finishing facility will exist in many forms including oxide precursors (PuF4, PuF3, Pu oxalate, etc.), oxide, and metal. The ability to identify plutonium in each of these chemical forms and determine their processing history is crucial for the development of spectroscopic signatures. This presentation will focus on our work to develop and apply spectroscopic tools at SRNL using doubled-walled cells (DWC) to characterize the thermal decomposition of oxalates, calcination chemistry, alpha-decay-induced chemistry, age dating since last calcination, and other signatures related to plutonium processing.

Villa-Aleman, Eliel↗

Doe Nuclear Forensics Player Injection Tool

The code is intended for mobile devices and provides simulated localized fallout environment information to players participating in DOE Forensics training exercises.

Thompson, ScottJ. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

TA-55 Forensic Support Operations Cross-Training Exercise

As part of the annual FBI/LANL training schedule, a joint training exercise was conducted during the week of 10FEB2020 with FBI HEAT members and LANL Fissile Material Handlers (FMHs). The joint training exercise was conducted in a non-radiological area to reduce cost and ensure the test object would not be contaminated. The exercise test object was fabricated by LANL using surrogate materials to represent an object containing Special Nuclear Material (SNM). Working with Jim Blankenship and Kevin Swearingen, functional requirements of the test object included the following: unclassified, disassembly (to include screws), and moderately heavy. To meet the objectives, the test object was fabricated by welding a custom aluminum box (8” x 8” x 12”) with a lid which was secured by four (4) screws. The custom box housed a track and field shot put (16 lbs.) that was anchored by a hose clamp. The intent of the training was to disassemble the test object and conduct traditional forensic determinations on the parts. This lessons learned report documents all of the associated aspects related to the joint training effort.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Generic National Nuclear Forensics Library Implementation

This document provides instructions for the database implementation for national nuclear forensic library (NNFL) using a relational database. While there are many software options that can be used to implement an NNFL database, in this document we reference an Oracle database for the implementation. The principles related here can be applied to any relational database structure. The design revolves around two main types of data: Samples and Results. Samples are materials or descriptions of materials; results are the results of analyses of those samples. All additional tables exist as a result of the normalization process. The remaining tables/entities have keys that are referenced by the Result/Sample tables via foreign key constraints. This allows for the enforcement of different relationships between the tables such as one-to-one, one-to-many, many-to-many. This process helps to ensure that valid data is entered, optimizes database performance and avoids data redundancies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Review of capture cross sections relevant for intentional nuclear forensics

The NA-22 Intentional Forensics Venture is developing a system for tagging nuclear fuel using various methods of information encoding. One of the main methods under development is the insertion of isotopically enriched tracers into the fuel. In order to aid in the understanding of the neutronic performance of these taggants, we assess the quality of the nuclear data underpinning simulations, which are driven by the neutron-capture cross sections. We present these cross sections of naturally occurring isotopes of the elements provided in the neutron sublibrary of the planned ENDF/B-VIII.1 Feb. 2023 library release. We make this assessment using a rubric designed for this effort, which quantifies orthogonal features related to the overall quality. The quality metric highlights 6 aspects: experimental data, resonance evaluations, integral metrics, covariances, fission products, and documentation. We focus on energy ranges relevant for reactor applications. We also discuss additional sources for new, high-quality cross-section data that may be utilized on the time scale of the venture, including existing global data, new experiments, and computational methods. Finally, overall outlook is presented with conclusions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

β- and γ-Counting for Pre-detonation Nuclear Forensics on Eu-155

Post-detonation nuclear forensics was performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on 155Eu, a fission product on the wing of the fission product production curve whose yield is sensitive to fission fuel and neutron energy. With a half-life of 4.753 years, 155Eu provides a longer-lived option for these measurements than other fission products with similar mass numbers. The Chemistry Division Group - Nuclear and Radiochemistry, at LANL routinely measures a suite of fission products from 235U fissions in thermal neutron flux experiments known as thermal calibration exercises, using a mixture of gas proportional β-decay counting and γ-spectrometry on HPGe detectors. The fission products of interest are reported relative to a high-yield reference fission product from the same sample to create a running average ratio specific to neutron energy and fuel type; Equation 1 below shows the ratio-of-ratios R-value measured fission products are reported in: R i x = [A( i X)/A( 99 Mo)] unknown [A( i X)/A( 99 Mo)] 235 U n,th where A denotes activity, i X is the nuclide of interest, and 235 U n,th denotes irradiations of 235 U with thermal neutrons. Measurements of unknown fission spectra are ratioed to a running-average of thermal calibration results, and the resulting R-value can be referred to as against a library of irradiation conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Assessment of the quality of nuclear data for stable oxygen isotopes for Intentional Forensics applications

The Intentional Forensics (IF) project seeks to design a suite of tagging materials that can be used to unobtrusively “barcode” nuclear fuel. The idea being that, if the fuel leaves institutional controls and is later recovered, the “barcode” can be used to determine the provenance of the fuel. The IF project is investigating several schemes for this “barcode” and taggants with tailored isotopic compositions are once leading concept. Recently 18 O was suggested as a potential taggant [IF2023]. This report assesses the quality of 16,17,18 O evaluations in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library [ENDF8.0]. In a neutron-rich environment such as a nuclear reactor, we are interested in two main processes – neutron scattering and neutron absorption (or capture). For the typical neutron energies encountered in a reactor, absorption is determined exclusively by the neutron radiative capture cross section (in which a neutron is absorbed, and the residual nucleus emits one or more gamma rays). The capture cross sections are described by and can be completely determined from R-matrix parameters in the ENDF evaluations. Therefore, it is sufficient to consider the quality of the neutron resonance part of these evaluations. Neutron scattering is determined mainly by the elastic scattering cross section which is very similar for all oxygen isotopes and is essentially constant until around 100 keV. The cross section varies from 3-4 barns, depending on the isotope, and 16 O has the largest elastic cross section of all isotopes. Therefore, we expect that significant amounts of 17 O and 18 O could diminish the moderating role of oxygen in fuel. We note that, in traditional power reactor, the hydrogen in the coolant water provides the vast majority of the moderation in the reactor, so the impact of 17 O and 18 O in any taggant would be minimal. At higher energies, neutron resonances start to play a role and the R-matrix parameters determine the cross sections. Fig. 1 shows the mass region near stable oxygen isotopes. As nuclei capture neutrons, they transmute into a different isotope, one unit to the right. In particular, 16 O transmutes to 17 O, 17 O transmutes to 18 O and 18 O transmutes to 19 O. 19 O, being unstable, beta decays in 27 s to 19 F. So, even if the 18 O neutron capture data is good, the fact that it transmutes into 19 F may be problematic and needs investigation. Fig. 2 from [NuDat] shows the thermal neutron capture cross sections for all nuclei in the ENDF/B-VII.1 library [ENDF7.1]. Clearly oxygen thermal capture values are quite small compared to other nuclei. Note, there is no 18 O evaluation in the ENDF/B-VII.1 library. In any event, given that neutron capture events lower the reactor reactivity and potentially induce chemical changes in the fuel, we will focus our attention on the capture part of the neutron resonances.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

OPCW Twining Project Visit by the National Laboratory of Scientific and Technical Police (LNPST) to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Forensic Science Center (LLNL)

PURPOSE FOR TRIP Through the Organisation for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) Twinning and Assistance Program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Forensic Science Center (LLNL) has been paired with Morocco’s National Laboratory of Scientific and Technical Police (LNPST), with the goal of mentoring LNPST to become an OPCW Designated Laboratory. The purpose of this visit was for LLNL staff to mentor staff from LNPST as they participated in hands-on, laboratory-based exercises to analyze proficiency test samples prepared by LLNL. This visit was designed to help LNPST scientists strengthen their skills in OPCW proficiency testing.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Creation of Speed-of-Sound Inject Data for Technical Nuclear Forensics

Technical Nuclear Forensics (TNF) exercises simulate a detonation of a nuclear device within the United States, usually in a city. Speed-of-sound (SOS) phenomenology are the atmospheric overpressure and ground shock mechanical motions that are observed at over-pressure (air-blast and infrasound) and seismic sensors, respectively (Figure 1). Amplitudes of SOS data are related to the explosive yield (Kinney and Graham, 1985; Koper et al., 2002; Bonner et al., 2013ab; Ford et al., 2014, 2021; Templeton et al., 2018; Schnurr et al., 2020). Within the country, the United States Prompt Diagnostics System (USPDS) includes a network of geophysical sensors to capture such SOS signals. During the TNF exercise, the event data will be analyzed by the players who know nothing about the technical details of the source (e.g. location, yield, explosive). Specifically, they will use the Integrated Yield Determination Tool (IYDT) to estimate the yield and height-of-burst or depth-of-burial (HOB/DOB). The IYDT allows the user to measure features on the overpressure and seismic channels, evaluate the consistency of features and jointly estimate yield and HOB/DOB. For these exercises, SOS data are simulated for the location, emplacement and yield of the device and signals are propagated to the observing stations. This document describes the steps undertaken in the simulation, validation, preparation and verification of SOS signals for TNF exercises.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗