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83 records · Page 5

Modeling Assessment of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Coupled with Cooling Thermal Storage

This study explored the performance and operating cost viability of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) in efficient new residential construction. AWHPs are an emerging technology in this country, but offer promise in terms of high efficiency, fully contained and factory charged outdoor refrigeration system, and hydronic delivery capabilities, which facilitates zoning, ducts in conditioned space, and TES integration for summer load-shifting. Although this AWHP+TES strategy is not yet mainstream, the authors feel that in ten years as decarbonization efforts proceed and TOU rates become more common, strategies such as this will be more accessible. Validated EnergyPlus simulation models were developed based on detailed monitoring data collected over several years at Pacific Gas and Electric's CVRH laboratory test homes located in Stockton, California. One of the CVRH test homes (1,962 ft 2 two-story) had been testing various AWHP systems and configurations over the past six years. The validated model was then updated with high efficiency IECC ZERH envelope and component requirements for climate zones 1-5, including ducts in conditioned space thermal distribution. Simulations were completed for the 1,962 ft 2 home in each climate zone for a minimum efficiency ASHP, an AWHP coupled with a fan coil, and an AWHP coupled with TES sized to eliminate summer on-peak compressor operation. To maintain consistency in reporting energy use estimates, all cases were run with a similar indoor thermostat control strategy to pre-cool the house below the nominal 76 degrees Fahrenheit set point prior to the on-peak period and float slightly above the set point during the peak period. The AWHP+TES configuration was controlled to alternately condition the indoor space or to charge the TES tanks prior to the beginning of the on-peak. Three composite TOU rates were developed based on existing TOU rates across the U.S. to provide differing economic scenarios to evaluate customer bill impacts throughout the summer. Two of the TOU rates had short three-hour peak periods, while the third rate had a longer seven-hour duration peak period. AWHP modeling projections were based on the observed field performance of the Chiltrix CX34 variable speed unit. Other products on the market or entering the market in the near term would likely perform differently.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advanced Computational Modeling of High-Level Waste Vitrification at the Hanford Site

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has selected vitrification for stabilizing legacy tank waste at the Hanford site, where radioactive waste from plutonium production was historically stored in underground tanks. This waste will be separated into low-activity waste (LAW) and high-level waste (HLW) fractions and processed at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). At WTP, glass melters are used for the vitrification of radioactive tank waste, transforming it into a stable borosilicate glass form for safe long-term storage. The melter vessel is constructed from highly durable and heat-resistant materials, where the vitrification process occurs. The main regions that are modeled are the melt pool, plenum, cold cap, riser/discharge chamber, and surrounding structure with insulation layers. Forced convection induced by air bubblers at the base of the melter ensure uniform temperature distribution and provide heat to the cold cap layer. The cold cap is a region of reacting batch feed that floats on top of the molten glass and is where the batch-to-glass reactions occur. Joule heating provided by electrodes mounted along the vertical walls of the melter and immersed directly in the glass, generates the necessary heat for the net endothermic conversion processes that occur in the cold cap. The high temperatures, radioactivity, and opaque nature of the glass prevent direct observation inside the melters. Therefore, computational models are essential for providing insight into factors that affect melter throughput. Thermocouples in the plenum provide operators with plenum temperature measurements. Operational adjustments include bubbling rate, voltage supplied to the electrodes, feed adjustments, and glass removal rate. Different computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models have been developed, each serving a specific purpose. There are CFD models of different scale melters, as well as models that capture the two-phase flow interfaces of rising bubbles in the molten glass or models with a simplified molten glass region so that the surrounding structure and plenum can be feasibly incorporated. Pilot-scale melter models have been developed to serve as validation of the methods employed in the simulation of the full-scale WTP melters. Models incorporating resolved bubbling are used to develop momentum source terms to implement into a single phase, multi-region, steady-state flow model that is being validated by measured process parameters such as glass production rate, voltage, input power, plenum temperatures, etc. The resolved bubbling model uses the multiphase volume of fluid approach to model the system with a high-resolution interface capturing scheme to maintain sharp interfaces between the molten glass and the air phase. The suite of CFD models is continually being improved to incorporate more realistic physics and achieve faster turnaround time. For example, an incremental controller is implemented to automatically adjust electrode voltage within the simulation to a molten glass set point temperature of 1150°C. Newer models feature improved meshes to ensure conformal meshes between regions and eliminate unnecessary mesh refinement in areas that are not of interest (such as boundary layers in offgas ports). Instead of explicitly modeling the structural, refractory, and insulation layers of the melter, a thermal resistance approach is used with published correlations used for boundary conditions. The development of robust and efficient CFD models will be instrumental in enabling the WTP to successfully fulfill its mission of safely stabilizing legacy nuclear waste.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗

ARCUS Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

While land-based wind energy has become economically competitive with traditional energy generation sources in the U.S., offshore wind is not. For floating offshore wind this difference is even more substantial where the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is projected to be around 3-5 times more expensive than land-based wind. The turbine capital costs represent around 50% of the LCOE for land-based wind sites, but the increased system costs for floating offshore wind reduce this to 20%. The platform and mooring costs are the single largest contributor to the LCOE for floating offshore wind where their mass must counteract the overturning moment caused by the turbine’s thrust force. Despite the high costs of the platform and relatively low cost of the turbine, current offshore wind turbines are designed essentially the same as for land-based sites. Reducing the LCOE is the greatest challenge to realize the benefits of sustained development of floating offshore wind in the U.S. Reducing the complicated system costs of floating offshore wind will enable the industry to continue to grow and outpace current projections if reduced cost curves can be reached. The ideal wind energy system would remove all mass and cost that is not directly capturing energy from the wind. For floating offshore wind energy systems, this objective is even more significant as increased mass above the water level must be supported by larger and more expensive floating platforms. For this reason, vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) are ideal for floating offshore sites and have several advantages over horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) at this scale. Large VAWTs offer opportunities for improved energy capture over HAWTs as single units and with reduced wind plant aerodynamic losses through enhanced wake recovery. Additionally, the platform-level placement of the VAWT drivetrain greatly reduces the demands placed on the floating platform and its mass and cost. The ARCUS vertical-axis wind turbine concept (U.S. 11,421,650 B2) is an iteration beyond traditional Darrieus-type VAWTs that replaces the rigid tower with blades that are bent into shape and held in place with tensioned center supports, like a bow. The ARCUS design has been shown to further decrease the VAWT rotor mass properties, with a 50% reduction over traditional Darrieus VAWTs quantified in the ATLANTIS program. The ARCUS VAWT’s efficient use of material for the rotor and turbine support structures combined with its lowered center of gravity enables a tension-leg platform (TLP) with simplified installation procedures. TLPs have been an emerging platform architecture in the Oil and Gas industry and demonstrated to have the lowest hull mass requirements while maintaining stability with minimal roll and pitch deflections in operation. A 22 MW ARCUS turbine has been designed with a three-column TLP that enables quayside integration of the turbine while maintaining system stability during tow-out and installation and having optimal mass and cost properties. A comprehensive analysis shows the optimal ARCUS TLP system design minimizes LCOE through efficient material usage and increased energy capture to yield a competitive LCOE estimate of $\$$55/MWh. A comparison with a reference HAWT, having the same swept area, quantifies the advantages that helped to produce this improved LCOE for the ARCUS concept: (1) 30% reduction in total turbine mass, (2) 70% reduction in turbine center of gravity, and (3) 45% increase in energy production over what is optimal for a HAWT. Intellectual property has been generated through the ATLANTIS program providing opportunities to further reduce the LCOE and improve the performance of the ARCUS turbine and TLP system, expanding the list of innovations to support commercial development of the ARCUS concept.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Lunar Dust and Lunar Simulant Activation, Monitoring, Solution and Cellular Toxicity Properties

During the Apollo missions, many undesirable situations were encountered that must be mitigated prior to returning humans to the moon. Lunar dust (that part of the lunar regolith less than 20 m in diameter) was found to produce several problems with astronaut s suits and helmets, mechanical seals and equipment, and could have conceivably produced harmful physiological effects for the astronauts. For instance, the abrasive nature of the dust was found to cause malfunctions of various joints and seals of the spacecraft and suits. Additionally, though efforts were made to exclude lunar dust from the cabin of the lunar module, a significant amount of material nonetheless found its way inside. With the loss of gravity correlated with ascent of the lunar module from the lunar surface to rendezvous with the command module, much of the major portions of the contaminating soil and dust began to float, irritating the astronaut s eyes and being inhaled into their lungs. Our goal has been to understand some of the properties of lunar dust that could lead to possible hazards for humans. Due to the lack of an atmosphere, there is nothing to protect the lunar soil from ultraviolet radiation, solar wind, and meteorite impacts. These processes could all serve to activate the soil, or produce reactive surface species. In order to understand the possible toxic effects of the reactive dust, it is necessary to reactivate the dust, as samples returned during the Apollo missions were exposed to the atmosphere of the Earth. We have used grinding and UV exposure to mimic some of the processes occurring on the Moon. The level of activation has been monitored using two methods: fluorescence spectroscopy and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy (EPR). These techniques allow the monitoring of hydroxyl radical production in solution. We have found that grinding of lunar dust produces 2-3 times the concentration of hydroxyl radicals as lunar simulant and 10 times that of quartz. Exposure of the lunar dust to UV radiation under vacuum was also found to lead to hydroxyl radical production. After grinding, we have also monitored loss of reactivity of the dusts by exposing them to conditions of known humidity and temperature. From these tests, it was found that the reactivity half-life of lunar simulant is approximately 3 hours, while that of quartz is approximately 2 hours. Placing lunar dust in solution could lead to effects on mechanical and physiological systems, as well as other biological systems. For instance, while it is known that lunar dust is highly abrasive and caused a variety of problems with suits and equipment during Apollo, it is unknown as to how these properties might be affected in the presence of water or other liquids. It is possible that the dust may release minerals (e.g., metallic nanophase Fe) into solution that could speed corrosion or rust. Also, as lunar dust produces hydroxyl radicals (and possibly other reactive oxygen species) in solution, these radicals could also lead to the breakdown of suit or habitat materials. In the body (i.e., in lung solution), the effects could be two-fold. First, if the lunar dust dissolves, it may release an excess of elements (such as zero-valence metallic Fe) that are necessary for bodily functions but only in certain concentration ranges. For lunar dust, the presence of nanophase iron being released into the body is a concern. Secondly, the hydroxyl radicals or other reactive oxygen species produced by the dust in solution could conceivably interact with cells, leading to various problems. We have studied the dissolution of both ground and unground lunar simulant in buffer solutions of different pH. The concentration of a number of species was determined using mass spectrometry. These studies showed that lowering the pH of the solution causes a dramatic increase in the amount of each element released into solution and that grinding also produces higher concentrations. Finally, we have perfmed initial tests aimed at understanding the effects of lunar simulant on cellular systems. Alveolar epithelial cells were cultured and exposed to different concentrations of dust suspended in cell culture media. After predetermined amounts of time, the media was removed and the concentrations of important inflammatory cytokines (IL6, IL8, and TNF-alpha ) were measured. The results of these tests are being used to develop the correct protocols for tests to be performed using lunar dust samples.

Jeevarajan, A.S.↗

25th Space Simulation Conference. Environmental Testing: The Earth-Space Connection

Topics covered include: Methods of Helium Injection and Removal for Heat Transfer Augmentation; The ESA Large Space Simulator Mechanical Ground Support Equipment for Spacecraft Testing; Temperature Stability and Control Requirements for Thermal Vacuum/Thermal Balance Testing of the Aquarius Radiometer; The Liquid Nitrogen System for Chamber A: A Change from Original Forced Flow Design to a Natural Flow (Thermo Siphon) System; Return to Mercury: A Comparison of Solar Simulation and Flight Data for the MESSENGER Spacecraft; Floating Pressure Conversion and Equipment Upgrades of Two 3.5kw, 20k, Helium Refrigerators; Affect of Air Leakage into a Thermal-Vacuum Chamber on Helium Refrigeration Heat Load; Special ISO Class 6 Cleanroom for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Project; A State-of-the-Art Contamination Effects Research and Test Facility Martian Dust Simulator; Cleanroom Design Practices and Their Influence on Particle Counts; Extra Terrestrial Environmental Chamber Design; Contamination Sources Effects Analysis (CSEA) - A Tool to Balance Cost/Schedule While Managing Facility Availability; SES and Acoustics at GSFC; HST Super Lightweight Interchangeable Carrier (SLIC) Static Test; Virtual Shaker Testing: Simulation Technology Improves Vibration Test Performance; Estimating Shock Spectra: Extensions beyond GEVS; Structural Dynamic Analysis of a Spacecraft Multi-DOF Shaker Table; Direct Field Acoustic Testing; Manufacture of Cryoshroud Surfaces for Space Simulation Chambers; The New LOTIS Test Facility; Thermal Vacuum Control Systems Options for Test Facilities; Extremely High Vacuum Chamber for Low Outgassing Processing at NASA Goddard; Precision Cleaning - Path to Premier; The New Anechoic Shielded Chambers Designed for Space and Commercial Applications at LIT; Extraction of Thermal Performance Values from Samples in the Lunar Dust Adhesion Bell Jar; Thermal (Silicon Diode) Data Acquisition System; Aquarius's Instrument Science Data System (ISDS) Automated to Acquire, Process, Trend Data and Produce Radiometric System Assessment Reports; Exhaustive Thresholds and Resistance Checkpoints; Reconfigurable HIL Testing of Earth Satellites; FPGA Control System for the Automated Test of MicroShutters; Ongoing Capabilities and Developments of Re-Entry Plasma Ground Tests at EADS-ASTRIUM; Operationally Responsive Space Standard Bus Battery Thermal Balance Testing and Heat Dissipation Analysis; Galileo - The Serial-Production AIT Challenge; The Space Systems Environmental Test Facility Database (SSETFD), Website Development Status; Simulated Reentry Heating by Torching; Micro-Vibration Measurements on Thermally Loaded Multi-Layer Insulation Samples in Vacuum; High Temperature Life Testing of 80Ni-20Cr Wire in a Simulated Mars Atmosphere for the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) Instrument Suit Gas Processing System (GPS) Carbon Dioxide Scrubber; The Planning and Implementation of Test Facility Improvements; and Development of a Silicon Carbide Molecular Beam Nozzle for Simulation Planetary Flybys and Low-Earth Orbit.

Packard, Edward↗

Analysis in Support of Disposition of Tank 48 Legacy Material

This report contains the characterization of six 200-mL Tank 48H samples: HTF-48-21-74, HTF-48-21-75, HTF-48-21-76, HTF-48-21-81, HTF-48-21-82, and HTF-48-21-83. The effort supports a Systems Engineering Evaluation (SEE) recommendation involving a Tank 48H decantation strategy that would remove liquid volume and grout the solids. The first three Tank 48H samples were surface samples taken after a quiescent period in the tank. The quiescent period allowed settling of the solids, these being mostly potassium tetraphenylborate. These three surface samples had no measurable solids, though a settling haze could be seen. The latter three samples were taken at 48, 25, and 10 inches from the bottom of Tank 48H immediately after tank mixing pumps had been run. Those samples contained measurable insoluble solids that were readily visible. All six samples were analyzed to provide chemical and radionuclide concentrations as defined as the "Limit" and "Target" in the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF) Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) and per the compliance strategy in the Tank Farm Waste Compliance Plan (WCP). Samples were analyzed by many methods to determine pH, density/specific gravity, radioactive isotopes, soluble and insoluble elements, total solids, total insoluble solids, organic and inorganic mercury, volatile and semi-volatile chemicals, and anions. Photographs of the settling of small samples were taken over time and are displayed in this report. The extent of settling was very significant, showing that surface sample liquids are similar to filtrates. However, Cs-137 measurements exceeded WAC limits in all surface samples (1.1E+07 vs. 1.3E+06). The solids were found to contain very high cesium activity, measured as high as 1.1E+10 dpm/gram. Sodium was in the range of 4.24 to 4.74 M for all samples, so the solids would tend to settle with time and would not be at risk of floating without air entrainment. No organic mercury was detected in this work.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analysis in Support of Disposition of Tank 48 Legacy Material

This report contains the characterization of six 200-mL Tank 48H samples: HTF-48-21-74, HTF-48-21-75, HTF-48-21-76, HTF-48-21-81, HTF-48-21-82, and HTF-48-21-83. The effort supports a Systems Engineering Evaluation (SEE) recommendation involving a Tank 48H decantation strategy that would remove liquid volume and grout the solids. The first three Tank 48H samples were surface samples taken after a quiescent period in the tank. The quiescent period allowed settling of the solids, these being mostly potassium tetraphenylborate. These three surface samples had no measurable solids, though a settling haze could be seen. The latter three samples were taken at 48, 25, and 10 inches from the bottom of Tank 48H immediately after tank mixing pumps had been run. Those samples contained measurable insoluble solids that were readily visible. All six samples were analyzed to provide chemical and radionuclide concentrations as defined as the "Limit" and "Target" in the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF) Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) and per the compliance strategy in the Tank Farm Waste Compliance Plan (WCP). Samples were analyzed by many methods to determine pH, density/specific gravity, radioactive isotopes, soluble and insoluble elements, total solids, total insoluble solids, organic and inorganic mercury, volatile and semi-volatile chemicals, and anions. Photographs of the settling of small samples were taken over time and are displayed in this report. The extent of settling was very significant, showing that surface sample liquids are similar to filtrates. However, Cs-137 measurements exceeded WAC limits in all surface samples (1.1E+07 vs. 1.3E+06). The solids were found to contain very high cesium activity, measured as high as 1.1E+10 dpm/gram. Sodium was in the range of 4.24 to 4.74 M for all samples, so the solids would tend to settle with time and would not be at risk of floating without air entrainment. No organic mercury was detected in this work.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗

Combustion of Metals in Carbon Dioxide and Reduced-Gravity Environments

Ongoing exploration and future mission2001110444 s to Mars have given impetus to research on the use of natural resources of the planet. Since carbon dioxide (CO2) constitutes approximately 95% of the Mars atmosphere and since it reacts directly and vigorously with several metals, this investigation focuses on metal-CO2 reactions as a possible combination for rocket-propellant production and energy generation. Magnesium (Mg) has been initially selected as the metal fuel owing to its low ignition temperature and high specific impulse and burning rate in CO2. Our studies in this field started with low gravity (g) combustion tests of Mg in O2, CO2, and CO. Reduced gravity provided a clear picture of the burning phenomena by eliminating the intrusive buoyant flows in high-temperature metal reactions and by removing the destructive effect of gravity on the shape of molten metal samples. Suspended cylindrical metal samples of 2, 3, and 4-mm in diameter and length were radiatively ignited in low-g to generate free-floating samples exhibiting a spherically symmetric flame with increasing metal-oxide accumulation in an outer shell. For the Mg-CO2 combination, burning times twice as long as in normal-g and five times longer than in Mg-O2 flames were observed, revealing a diffusion-controlled reaction. The burning time is proportional to the square of the sample diameter. In tests conducted with pure CO, combustion was not possible without constant heating of the sample due to the formation of a thick carbon-containing coating around the Mg sample generated by surface reactions. The following work presents two new studies that attempt to explain some of the low-g experimental observations. First, a simplified one-dimensional, quasi-steady numerical model is developed to obtain temperature, species concentrations, and burning rates of the spherically symmetric diffusion flame around the Mg sample burning in O2 and CO2. Second, a Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) technique is implemented to provide spatially resolved measurements of magnesium oxide (MgO) in the reaction zone of Mg samples burning in O2 and CO2. These experiments reveal fundamental differences between the two combustion systems.

Branch, M. C.↗

The Cost of Floating Offshore Wind Energy in California Between 2019 and 2032

California’s energy planning is centered around meeting the emissions reduction and renewable energy requirements of Senate Bill 350 by 2030. However, state power system planning is expected to eventually address California’s requirement to achieve 100% of total retail electricity sales from renewable energy and zero-carbon resources by 2045, as mandated by Senate Bill 100. To comply with these directives, California needs to investigate the further development of energy efficiency, storage, and a diverse range of renewable energy, zero-carbon emission, and transmission resources, including offshore wind. Wind resources off the coast of California have the potential to generate a significant portion of the state’s electric energy as it moves toward a zero-carbon economy and can help diversify its energy mix. Floating offshore wind technology, which is suitable for the deep waters along the California coast, is currently in a precommercial phase, with approximately 84 megawatts (MW) installed worldwide at the end of 2019. Globally there are over 7,000 MW in planning and permitting phases of development, with the first commercial-scale projects expected to be operational in 2024. This study provides site-specific cost and performance data for floating offshore wind to inform California’s long-term energy planning. The identification of new resources to meet California’s policy goals at least cost is part of the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, which is coordinated by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). In 2019–2020 IRP modeling, offshore wind was included for the first time as a candidate resource in some sensitivity cases (CPUC 2019). The data and information presented in this report can be used to update offshore wind inputs in future IRP cycles. The authors conducted a geospatial cost analysis over portions of the offshore wind resource area of California. The analyzed spatial domain includes sites with a mean wind speed of at least 7 meters per second and water depths between 40 meters (m) and 1,300 m. Costs and energy production vary across this analysis domain. We calculated these parameters on a grid layout with over 750 sites, with each site representing a 1,000-MW commercial offshore wind power plant. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated at each site over the analysis domain. The resulting variation in LCOE across the analysis domain is illustrated through heat maps in this report. Five study areas were selected within the analysis domain where more detailed cost analysis was conducted and cost parameters, such as annual energy production, capital cost expenditures (CapEx), operational cost expenditures (OpEx), and net capacity factors are reported. These five study areas include Morro Bay, Diablo Canyon, Humboldt, Cape Mendocino and Del Norte.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Grand challenges in the design, manufacture, and operation of future wind turbine systems

Abstract. Wind energy is foundational for achieving 100 % renewable electricity production, and significant innovation is required as the grid expands and accommodates hybrid plant systems, energy-intensive products such as fuels, and a transitioning transportation sector. The sizable investments required for wind power plant development and integration make the financial and operational risks of change very high in all applications but especially offshore. Dependence on a high level of modeling and simulation accuracy to mitigate risk and ensure operational performance is essential. Therefore, the modeling chain from the large-scale inflow down to the material microstructure, and all the steps in between, needs to predict how the wind turbine system will respond and perform to allow innovative solutions to enter commercial application. Critical unknowns in the design, manufacturing, and operability of future turbine and plant systems are articulated, and recommendations for research action are laid out. This article focuses on the many unknowns that affect the ability to push the frontiers in the design of turbine and plant systems. Modern turbine rotors operate through the entire atmospheric boundary layer, outside the bounds of historic design assumptions, which requires reassessing design processes and approaches. Traditional aerodynamics and aeroelastic modeling approaches are pressing against the limits of applicability for the size and flexibility of future architectures and flow physics fundamentals. Offshore wind turbines have additional motion and hydrodynamic load drivers that are formidable modeling challenges. Uncertainty in turbine wakes complicates structural loading and energy production estimates, both around a single plant and for downstream plants, which requires innovation in plant operations and flow control to achieve full energy capture and load alleviation potential. Opportunities in co-design can bring controls upstream into design optimization if captured in design-level models of the physical phenomena. It is a research challenge to integrate improved materials into the manufacture of ever-larger components while maintaining quality and reducing cost. High-performance computing used in high-fidelity, physics-resolving simulations offer opportunities to improve design tools through artificial intelligence and machine learning, but even the high-fidelity tools are yet to be fully validated. Finally, key actions needed to continue the progress of wind energy technology toward even lower cost and greater functionality are recommended.

17 WIND ENERGY↗