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DOE OSTI2026

Distinguishing Single and Linked Ruptures in the Laboratory and Nature

Earthquakes can grow either monotonically from a single, stressed patch or through linking multiple stressed regions. The distinction has implications for magnitude predictability with single ruptures requiring knowledge of the local stress state, while linked ruptures require knowing the global stress and energy distribution. Here, we use a laboratory fault that allows direct observation of slip to determine which fault conditions promote linked ruptures, and how to observationally evaluate their likelihood. Higher concentrations of normal stress due to increased normal force, applied stress asperities, or larger heterogeneity between the samples, all lead to significant increases in linked rupture likelihood. The mean radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF) of large events is an excellent proxy for linked event likelihood, and a combination of REEF and duration can identify the rupture style of some but not all events. The results imply that globally observed variations of REEF can be interpreted as variations in stress concentration.

earthquakes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precursory Locking Precedes Slip Events on Laboratory Fault

Earthquakes occur through repeated cycles of locking and slip. What is the relationship between transiently locked patches and the size, location, and timing of the subsequent slip events? Here we use an experimental fault made of transparent rubber to image the slip history of over 18,000 events. The soft elastic system allows for contained ruptures and thus a natural evolution of stress heterogeneity over multiple earthquake cycles. We observe a precursory locking phase preceding slip nucleation for events of all sizes. The integrated locking distance increases linearly with the moment of the eventual event. The most intense (largest slip deficit) locking events are spatially and temporally correlated with the hypocenters of the largest rupture events. These results show that the transient locking is statistically, but not deterministically, predictive of the location, timing, and size of the eventual slip event.

earthquakes↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydro-Mechanical Measurements of Sheared Crystalline Rock Fractures With Applications for EGS Collab Experiments 1 and 2

We present hydro-mechanical measurements that characterize shear on natural fractures in schist, amphibolite, and rhyolite specimens from the enhanced geothermal system (EGS) Collab Project's Experiment 1 and 2 sites (E1 and E2) at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We employed a triaxial direct shear method augmented with X-ray imaging to perform hydroshearing (injection-induced shearing) and mechanical shearing on naturally fractured specimens at in situ stress conditions. Measurements included fracture permeability, strength, stress-dependent aperture, shear dilation, and frictional strength. Results reveal that in situ natural fractures must be permeable, weak, and shear-oriented to be hydrosheared, and only a subset of the observable in situ fractures were suitable. When sheared, the fracture permeability typically increased by a factor of 10 or more and this increase was retained over time. However, shear slip did not always result in permeability increase. High phyllosilicate content associated with exceptionally weak fractures exhibited poor or even decreased permeability after stimulation. These measurements in combination with site data were used to conduct a slip-tendency analysis for different fracture sets, and we selected the top candidate natural fractures for hydroshearing at the EGS Collab sites. We also found that the lower in situ shear stress and stronger fractures at the E2 site make hydroshearing more challenging than at the E1 site. Overall, the methods and analysis used in our work can be applied to any geothermal project to identify in situ joint sets that are best suited for hydroshearing, which in turn can help to optimize well placement and energy production.

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