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DOE OSTI2025

How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff

Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (W) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in W magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme W magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme W magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme W can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Effects of Various Surface Textures and Features on Turbulent Heat Transfer in Hypersonic Flight

Experiments were conducted in the NASA Ames Hypervelocity Free Flight Aerodynamic Facility (ballistic range) to quantify the effects on turbulent convective heat transfer of distributed surface roughness, and of isolated features, representative of thermal protection systems on atmospheric entry vehicles. The surface textures and features were applied on the conic frusta of 45o sphere-cone models having a nose-to-base radius ratio of 0.5, similar to the forebody geometry of the Galileo and Pioneer-Venus entry probes. Test conditions were selected to provide turbulent roughness Reynolds numbers, k+, in the ranges expected for outer planet entry missions. Turbulent flow on the conic frustum was achieved by tripping the flow on the sphere-segment nose cap with distributed surface roughness, created by sand-blasting the nose cap. Surface textures included distributed, acreage, roughness, as well as cavity and groove discrete features. The majority of the data to be presented are results for distributed roughness, which includes both random, sand-grain-like roughness, and regular pattern roughness. The pattern roughness was designed to represent the roughness on woven thermal protection system materials, such as NASA’s 3-D Medium Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP), also known as HEEET, developed by the Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology project. The pattern roughness tested is a 3-D wavy surface, and includes three different roughness element height-to-spacing ratios representative of two configurations of 3MDCP, and spanning ratios measured both before, and after, ablation in an arc jet test facility. The patterns tested in the ballistic range were laser-etched on metal models, and represented an idealized version of the real-world materials in which each roughness element was nearly identical. Additional tests were performed wherein the laser-etched patterns were degraded by sand-blasting with various sized grit media, to produce regular patterns with superimposed irregular roughness, more representative of flight materials. Results of each will be compared. The discrete features tested included cylindrical cavities and rectangular grooves of various width-to-depth ratios. Cavities represent either heatshield damage, such as from micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) damage, or from designed penetrations, such as on the Genesis sample return capsule. The grooves were scaled representations of seams between segments of HEEET material in a notional tiled thermal protection system. The tests examined the effects on turbulent heating downstream of the isolated features. The tests were conducted at speeds between 3 km/s and 4 km/s in air between 0.15 atm and 0.25 atm (Mach numbers between 9 and 12). Roughness Reynolds numbers, k+, ranged from 12 to 70 for the sand roughness, and as high as 200 for the pattern roughness. Boundary-layer parameters required for calculating k+ were evaluated using computational fluid dynamics simulations using the DPLR (Data Parallel Line Relaxation) code. Each model included both rough- and smooth-wall segments, and heat transfer augmentation factors were determined as the ratio of the rough-wall to smooth-wall heat flux measured on each test.

hypersonic↗

NASA NTRS1997

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI

This study describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness function for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes of the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980s in order to refine our empirical understanding of intraannual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global l(sup o) gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: growing degree days, annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same climate index values from the previous year explained no significant additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes was closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from l(sup o) grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes were not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude ecosystems and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.

Potter, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Remote Sensing the Patterns of Vector-borne Disease in El Nino and non-El Nino Years

The relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino and the patterns of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are long term predictions of changing precipitation and temperature patterns at continental and global scales. At the opposite extreme are the local or site specific ecological changes associated with the long term events. In order to understand and address the human health consequences of El Nino events, especially the patterns of vector-borne diseases, it is necessary to combine both scales of observation. At a local or regional scale the patterns of vector-borne diseases are determined by temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability. These factors, as well as disease incidence can be altered by El Nino events. Remote sensing data such as that acquired by the NOAA AVHRR and Landsat TM sensors can be used to characterize and monitor changing ecological conditions and therefore predict vector-borne disease patterns. The authors present the results of preliminary work on the analysis of historical AVHRR and TM data acquired during El Nino and nonfatal Nino years to characterize ecological conditions in Peru on a monthly basis. This information will then be combined with disease data to determine the relationship between changes in ecological conditions and disease incidence. Our goal is to produce a sequence of remotely sensed images which can be used to show the ecological and disease patterns associated with long term El Nino events and predictions.

Wood, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Wang, Hailan↗

NASA NTRS1975

EMGAN: A computer program for time and frequency domain reduction of electromyographic data

An experiment in electromyography utilizing surface electrode techniques was developed for the Apollo-Soyuz test project. This report describes the computer program, EMGAN, which was written to provide first order data reduction for the experiment. EMG signals are produced by the membrane depolarization of muscle fibers during a muscle contraction. Surface electrodes detect a spatially summated signal from a large number of muscle fibers commonly called an interference pattern. An interference pattern is usually so complex that analysis through signal morphology is extremely difficult if not impossible. It has become common to process EMG interference patterns in the frequency domain. Muscle fatigue and certain myopathic conditions are recognized through changes in muscle frequency spectra.

Hursta, W. N.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave I pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach to determine significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave 1 pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach for determining significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Cavalieri, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Report of Amphibian Development Group

Amphibian and fish embryos are extremely well suited for studies on pattern specification, whereas other systems (e.g., avian or mammalian) might be just as well suited for studies on differentiation or growth. Those distinctions are important for at least two reasons: (1) More precise focus regarding underlying mechanisms is called for when those distinctions are made. That facilitates the formulation of specific models or hypotheses; and (2) stress effects (i.e., the effects of weightlessness on structures (e.g., bones) which normally bear a load) are distinguished as being indirect, in contrast to direct effects of microgravity, which would be expected to act on pattern specification. That is, direct gravity effects are distinguished from indirect stress effects.

Malacinski, G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Sensing Super-position: Visual Instrument Sensor Replacement

Maluf, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Sensing Super-Position: Human Sensing Beyond the Visual Spectrum

The coming decade of fast, cheap and miniaturized electronics and sensory devices opens new pathways for the development of sophisticated equipment to overcome limitations of the human senses. This paper addresses the technical feasibility of augmenting human vision through Sensing Super-position by mixing natural Human sensing. The current implementation of the device translates visual and other passive or active sensory instruments into sounds, which become relevant when the visual resolution is insufficient for very difficult and particular sensing tasks. A successful Sensing Super-position meets many human and pilot vehicle system requirements. The system can be further developed into cheap, portable, and low power taking into account the limited capabilities of the human user as well as the typical characteristics of his dynamic environment. The system operates in real time, giving the desired information for the particular augmented sensing tasks. The Sensing Super-position device increases the image resolution perception and is obtained via an auditory representation as well as the visual representation. Auditory mapping is performed to distribute an image in time. The three-dimensional spatial brightness and multi-spectral maps of a sensed image are processed using real-time image processing techniques (e.g. histogram normalization) and transformed into a two-dimensional map of an audio signal as a function of frequency and time. This paper details the approach of developing Sensing Super-position systems as a way to augment the human vision system by exploiting the capabilities of Lie human hearing system as an additional neural input. The human hearing system is capable of learning to process and interpret extremely complicated and rapidly changing auditory patterns. The known capabilities of the human hearing system to learn and understand complicated auditory patterns provided the basic motivation for developing an image-to-sound mapping system. The human brain is superior to most existing computer systems in rapidly extracting relevant information from blurred, noisy, and redundant images. From a theoretical viewpoint, this means that the available bandwidth is not exploited in an optimal way. While image-processing techniques can manipulate, condense and focus the information (e.g., Fourier Transforms), keeping the mapping as direct and simple as possible might also reduce the risk of accidentally filtering out important clues. After all, especially a perfect non-redundant sound representation is prone to loss of relevant information in the non-perfect human hearing system. Also, a complicated non-redundant image-to-sound mapping may well be far more difficult to learn and comprehend than a straightforward mapping, while the mapping system would increase in complexity and cost. This work will demonstrate some basic information processing for optimal information capture for headmounted systems.

Maluf, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Visual Image Sensor Organ Replacement

This innovation is a system that augments human vision through a technique called "Sensing Super-position" using a Visual Instrument Sensory Organ Replacement (VISOR) device. The VISOR device translates visual and other sensors (i.e., thermal) into sounds to enable very difficult sensing tasks. Three-dimensional spatial brightness and multi-spectral maps of a sensed image are processed using real-time image processing techniques (e.g. histogram normalization) and transformed into a two-dimensional map of an audio signal as a function of frequency and time. Because the human hearing system is capable of learning to process and interpret extremely complicated and rapidly changing auditory patterns, the translation of images into sounds reduces the risk of accidentally filtering out important clues. The VISOR device was developed to augment the current state-of-the-art head-mounted (helmet) display systems. It provides the ability to sense beyond the human visible light range, to increase human sensing resolution, to use wider angle visual perception, and to improve the ability to sense distances. It also allows compensation for movement by the human or changes in the scene being viewed.

Maluf, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Negative extreme events in gross primary productivity and their drivers in China during the past three decades

Climate extremes have remarkable impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase with future global warming. However, only few studies have focused on the ecological extreme events and their drivers in China. In this study, we carried out an analysis of negative extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) in China and the sub-regions during 1982–2015, using monthly GPP simulated by 12 process-based models (TRENDYv6) and an observation-based model (Yao-GPP). Extremes were defined as the negative 5th percentile of GPP anomalies, which were further merged into individual extreme events using a three-dimensional contiguous algorithm. Spatio-temporal patterns of negative GPP anomalies were analyzed by taking the 1000 largest extreme events into consideration. Results showed that the effects of extreme events decreased annual GPP by 2.8% (i.e. 208 TgC/year) in TRENDY models and 2.3% (i.e. 151 TgC/year) in Yao-GPP. Hotspots of extreme GPP deficits were mainly observed in North China (−53 gC/sq.m year) in TRENDY models and Northeast China (−42 gC/sq.m year) in Yao-GPP. For China as a whole, attribution analyses suggested that extreme low precipitation was associated with 40%–50% of extreme negative GPP events. Most events in northern and western China could be explained by meteorological droughts (i.e. low precipitation) while GPP extreme events in southern China were more associated with temperature extremes, in particular with cold spells. GPP was revealed to be much more sensitive to heat/drought than to cold/wet extreme events. Combined with projected changes in climate extremes in China, GPP negative anomalies caused by drought events in northern China and by temperature extremes in southern China might be more prominent in the future.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS2018

Interconnection of Semiconductor Devices in Extreme Environment Microelectronic Integrated Circuit Chips

A process of fabrication and the resulting integrated circuit device is made of patterned metal electrical interconnections between semiconductor devices residing on and forming extremely harsh environment integrated circuit chips. The process enables more complicated wide band gap semiconductor integrated circuits with more than one level of interconnect to function for prolonged time periods (over 1000 hours) at much higher temperatures (500 C).

Spry, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Causes of and Long Term Changes in Eurasian Heat Waves

The MERRA reanalysis, other observations, and the GEOS-S model have been used to diagnose the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability (in this case a particular large-scale atmospheric planetary wave) that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. Model experiments suggest that forcing from both the ocean (SST) and land playa role phase-locking the waves. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more extreme in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bismuth-oxo Clusters for Next Generation Extreme Ultraviolet Light Photolithography

Photolithography is the primary technique used for the patterning of semiconducting materials for chip manufacturing; however, as requisite pattern dimensions and feature sizes continue to decrease, state-of-the-art lithographic methods now require the use of 13.5 nm extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light. The shift toward these higher energy wavelengths of light has resulted in a need for new single component materials, with high EUV absorption cross sections and high etch resistance. Herein, we report the exploration of Bi 9 O 7 (hfac) 13 as the first bismuth oxo cluster based EUV photoresist. It was determined this material has an exceptional EUV linear absorption coefficient (24 μm –1 ), nearly an order of magnitude larger than commercially available chemically amplified resists (CARs) (∼5 μm –1 ). Additionally, the resist was determined to be highly sensitive to EUV exposure and displayed a dose-to-gel of 10 mJ/cm 2 , undergoing ligand decomposition during exposure and cross-linking during the postexposure bake, which was supported by FTIR and residual gas analysis. In conclusion, this class of bismuth-oxo cluster resists can lead to the development of more efficient, effective and safe EUV resist materials required for next-generation photolithography.

MacKenzie, Harvey K. [Univ. of Victoria, BC (Canad↗

NASA NTRS2003

Perspectives on Forced Predictability

This talk addresses the relationships between weather and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other low frequency atmospheric variations such as the Pacific/North American pattern. We focus, in particular, on the predictability of extreme wintertime precipitation events over the continental United States. We first examine fifty years of daily precipitation observations and quantify the leading patterns of winter weather variability. These weather systems, familiar to operational weather forecasters, account for many of the major flooding events on the west coast as well as the major winter snowstorms along the east coast. We next examine the statistics of these storm systems with a particular focus on the occurrence of extreme events. The leading weather systems show varying degrees of linkages to low frequency atmospheric variability. We show, for example, that on seasonal time scales the probability of occurrence of certain types of west coast storms is strongly enhanced by El Nino, while it is reduced during winters with an anomalous trough to the west of the dateline. ENSO also has a strong impact on storms that develop over the Gulf of Mexico and affect much of the eastern United States, with enhanced storminess during El Nino, and reduced storminess during La Nina conditions. We conclude with an example of how well current climate models are able to reproduce the basic linkages between weather and low frequency variability.

Schubert, S.↗