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At least 91 records · Page 5

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Cui, Ryna↗

A comparative TEA of a two-step process using chemical solvents for producing an ultra-sweet natural gas

Here, a comprehensive Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) was performed to evaluate the economic feasibility of a novel two-step process (TSP) developed in Aspen Plus V12.1 to desulfurize and decarbonize a raw natural gas containing (2 mol% H 2 S and 5 mol% CO 2 ) into an ultra-sweet natural gas containing (1.72 ppmv H 2 S and 4.19 ppmv CO 2 ). The raw natural gas flow rate used in the TSP was 117.74 kg/s at 60 °C and 50 bar. The TSP combines an H 2 S desulfurization step using potassium carbonate (K 2 CO 3 ) and a CO 2 capture step using 3 different chemical solvents, monoethanolamine (MEA), sodium glycinate (SGS), and potassium glycinate (PGS). Both steps employ fixed-bed absorbers packed with Mellapak 250Y structured packing. The hydraulics and mass transfer characteristics for the TSP were calculated, indicating normal operation with higher gas-side (k G ) than liquid-side (k L ) mass transfer coefficients. The TEA of TSP indicated that PGS had the most promising economic feasibility among the 3 solvents as it exhibited the lowest Levelized Cost of CO 2 capture (LCOC) of $\$$47.54/ton.CO 2 at a Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) of $\$$24.98 million, and an Operating Expenditure (OPEX) of $\$$12.20 million/year. Also, the TSP could produce one MMSCF of ultra-sweet natural gas at a total cost of $\$$339.55.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Development of an innovative process for post-combustion CO 2 capture to produce high-value NaHCO 3 nanomaterials

An innovative post-combustion process using aqueous sodium glycinates solutions (SGS) for CO 2 capture from a split flue gas stream emitted from the 600 MWe coal power plant, used in the Wolverine Clean Energy Venture (WCEV) project, was developed in Aspen Plus v.10. The flue gas flow rate used in the process was 12.43 kg/s (at 353.15 K and 101.33 kPa) and contained 0.0023 and 13.33 mol% of SO 2 and CO 2 , respectively. The overall process includes 5 main units designed to remove all SO 2 and capture more than 90 mol% of CO 2 in the flue gas stream, while producing high-value, salable sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ) nanomaterials to offset the total process costs. The hydraulics, mass transfer characteristics, and process performance obtained using Aspen Plus were discussed. Also, the capital expenditure (CAPEX), operating expenditure (OPEX), and Levelized cost of CO 2 capture (LCOC) were calculated to assess the feasibility of this process. Further, the hydraulics in the SO 2 washing and CO 2 capture units showed a pressure drop of 12 and 1 kPa, respectively, and the behaviors of the liquid holdup and normalized packing specific wetted surface area were similar in both units. The gas-side mass transfer coefficients were orders of magnitude greater than the liquid-side mass transfer coefficients. The process was able to capture 2.352 kg/s of CO 2 and produce 4.486 kg/s of valuable NaHCO 3 nanomaterials. Also, the calculated CAPEX, OPEX, and LCOC of the process for a 30-year plant lifetime were ($\$ $4,450,552), (233.00 $\$ $/h) and (35.49 $\$ $/ton of CO 2 captured), respectively.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Geospatial characterization of low-temperature heating and cooling demand in residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors for potential geothermal applications in the United States

Thermal demand for heating and cooling has been predominantly supplied by fossil fuel combustion in the United States, although low-carbon alternatives are extensively available including geothermal, solar thermal, and waste heat. Here, this study analyzed end-use energy consumption, fuel expenditure, and data center commissioned power data to geospatially characterize the U.S. low-temperature heating and cooling demand at the county level in residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors and understand potential opportunities for geothermal applications. In the analysis, the regional-scale energy consumption data was incorporated with system efficiencies to address actual demand and was then disaggregated with weighting factors to the county level. The results indicated that total low-temperature heating and cooling demand is 16.7 EJ, combining heating demand of 10.8 EJ and cooling demand of 5.9 EJ. Overall, 59.9 % (10 EJ) of the low-temperature heating and cooling demand occurred in the residential sector. The heating and cooling demand visualized in maps represented that the geospatial distribution of heating and cooling demand in the residential and commercial sectors is governed by the number of housing units and climate zone designations, while heating and cooling demand in the manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors is dependent on the number and location of facilities. The results also demonstrated that geothermal heat pumps are broadly used in the residential and commercial sectors for heating and cooling in the U.S. Midwest, South, and Northeast regions but are limited in the West, implying great decarbonization potential in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The pesticide chlorpyrifos promotes obesity by inhibiting diet-induced thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue

Obesity results from a caloric imbalance between energy intake, absorption and expenditure. In both rodents and humans, diet-induced thermogenesis contributes to energy expenditure and involves the activation of brown adipose tissue (BAT). We hypothesize that environmental toxicants commonly used as food additives or pesticides might reduce BAT thermogenesis through suppression of uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) and this may contribute to the development of obesity. Using a step-wise screening approach, we discover that the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos suppresses UCP1 and mitochondrial respiration in BAT at concentrations as low as 1 pM. In mice housed at thermoneutrality and fed a high-fat diet, chlorpyrifos impairs BAT mitochondrial function and diet-induced thermogenesis, promoting greater obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and insulin resistance. This is associated with reductions in cAMP; activation of p38MAPK and AMPK; protein kinases critical for maintaining UCP1 and mitophagy, respectively in BAT. These data indicate that the commonly used pesticide chlorpyrifos, suppresses diet-induced thermogenesis and the activation of BAT, suggesting its use may contribute to the obesity epidemic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hepatic SerpinA1 improves energy and glucose metabolism through regulation of preadipocyte proliferation and UCP1 expression

Lipodystrophy and obesity are associated with insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome accompanied by fat tissue dysregulation. Here, we show that serine protease inhibitor A1 (SerpinA1) expression in the liver is increased during recovery from lipodystrophy caused by the adipocyte-specific loss of insulin signaling in mice. SerpinA1 induces the proliferation of white and brown preadipocytes and increases the expression of uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) to promote mitochondrial activation in mature white and brown adipocytes. Liver-specific SerpinA1 transgenic mice exhibit increased browning of adipose tissues, leading to increased energy expenditure, reduced adiposity and improved glucose tolerance. Conversely, SerpinA1 knockout mice exhibit decreased adipocyte mitochondrial function, impaired thermogenesis, obesity, and systemic insulin resistance. SerpinA1 forms a complex with the Eph receptor B2 and regulates its downstream signaling in adipocytes. These results demonstrate that SerpinA1 is an important hepatokine that improves obesity, energy expenditure and glucose metabolism by promoting preadipocyte proliferation and activating mitochondrial UCP1 expression in adipocytes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reassessing Hybrid Vigor or Hybrid Dysfunction Using Physiological Trade-Offs in an Endangered Salamander System

Fitness of interspecific hybrids can be higher or lower than that of their parental genotypes, with major ramifications for evolution and conservation. A recent study found that hybrid tiger salamanders had higher metabolic rates than their parental forms. Specifically, the ratio of resting metabolic rate to water loss, which was used as a measure of performance, was greater in hybrids. Recent genetic research showed that over half of the experimental subjects in that study were genetically pure California tiger salamanders (Ambystoma californiense) misclassified as hybrids. We reanalyzed the data using the corrected identification of hybrids and parentals. As expected, updating the classification revealed even stronger evidence for differences between hybrids and parentals. Hybrids had higher resting metabolic rates and greater water loss than parentals. The ratio of resting metabolic rate to water loss was also higher in hybrids. However, we suggest that this ratio might not be a positive measure of salamander performance. Higher metabolic rate means higher energy expenditure, and higher water loss suggests increased risk of desiccation. Both are major challenges for terrestrial amphibians, especially salamanders, which are hypothesized to be low-energy, low-water-loss specialists. Under this hypothesis, the ratio of energy expenditure to water loss is a ratio of two costs rather than a ratio of benefit to cost. While our analyses corroborate and strengthen the previous statistical results, we suggest that high resting metabolic rate is better interpreted as hybrid dysfunction, not vigor. Here, both hypotheses are speculative, and specific research on the fitness effects of these physiological differences is needed to resolve this important ecological question.

Ambystoma californiense↗

ProFAST (Production Financial Analysis Scenario Tool) [SWR-23-88]

The Production Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (ProFAST) provides a quick and convenient in-depth financial analysis for production facilities. The model uses a generally accepted accounting principles analysis framework and provides annual projections of income statements, cash flow statements, and balance sheets. ProFAST allows users to calculate the levelized cost of the produced commodity by providing an expected financial performance, or on the other hand, calculate the financial performance based on an input price. Model inputs generally capital expenditures, operating expenditures, and financing structure. The programmatic approach of ProFAST allows users to easily perform large sensitivity analyses and integrates easily with other python tools.

Kee, Jamie↗

BioC2G Tool v1

The BioC2G tool provides an interface for running technoeconomic analyses and life-cycle assessments of biofuel and bioproduct production pathways. Models for the pathways are currently built into the tool: limonene, limonane, bisabolene, bisabolane, ethanol, isoprenol, DMCO, and HEFA. Additionally, a "Custom" option is available for analyzing a bioproduction pathway not included among the built-in examples. Users must supply key product properties and process parameters. Three types of model runs are available in the tool: minimum selling price (MSP), water consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Running the MSP model yields a breakdown of MSP by major process stage of production, along with a a table of estimated capital expenditures (CAPEX) and annual operating expenditures (OPEX). Running the water consumption and GHG models yields a breakdown of water consumed and carbon emissions respectively, per unit of end product. A breakdown of these metrics by major process stage is also provided. Model run results can be viewed in the web interface numerically and graphically, as well as downloaded in CSV format. Detailed documentation on model methodology and assumptions is also available for download.

Huntington, Tyler↗

Household Transportation Energy Affordability by Region and Socioeconomic Factors

Transportation fuel is an important component of household budgets, as 3.3% of total household expenditures are for vehicle fuel nationwide and over 50% of annual household expenditures on energy are for transportation. These average values vary geographically, and higher energy cost burdens are faced by households with lower incomes. Defining transportation energy affordability burden as the percentage of annual household income spent on vehicle fuel, this study aims to quantify affordability as a function of household characteristics and geography. Here, through analysis at the census tract level, this study (i) projects annual household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) based on demographic factors using machine-learning techniques, (ii) estimates local differences in vehicle fuel economy and fuel price, and (iii) quantifies resulting transportation energy affordability by census tract. This study found that the average burden by tract varies from 0.15% to 8%. The variation in affordability can be largely explained by income level and vehicle fuel efficiency. Suburban and rural households spend more on transportation energy compared with urban households because of the usage of less fuel-efficient vehicle technologies and higher annual VMT. Lower-income groups have a wide distribution of the percentage of income spent on transportation energy, 1.2% to 8%, whereas the range for the highest income group ($125,000+) is from 0.15% to 3.9%. This detailed transportation energy affordability analysis provides a better understanding of regional variations in household travel behavior, helps to determine where fuel-efficient vehicle technologies are more likely to be used, and improves estimates of vehicle ownership costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Male Runners With Lower Energy Availability Have Impaired Skeletal Integrity Compared to Nonathletes

Abstract Context Female athletes, particularly runners, with insufficient caloric intake for their energy expenditure [low energy availability (EA) or relative energy deficiency] are at risk for impaired skeletal integrity. Data are lacking in male runners. Objective To determine whether male runners at risk for energy deficit have impaired bone mineral density (BMD), microarchitecture, and estimated strength. Design Cross-sectional. Setting Clinical research center. Participants 39 men (20 runners, 19 controls), ages 16–30 years. Main Outcome Measures Areal BMD (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry); tibia and radius volumetric BMD and microarchitecture (high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography); failure load (microfinite element analysis); serum testosterone, estradiol, leptin; energy availability. Results Mean age (24.5 ± 3.8 y), lean mass, testosterone, and estradiol levels were similar; body mass index, percent fat mass, leptin, and lumbar spine BMD Z-score (−1.4 ± 0.8 vs −0.8 ± 0.8) lower (P < .05); and calcium intake and running mileage higher (P ≤ .01) in runners vs controls. Runners with EA <median had lower lumbar spine (−1.5 ± 0.7, P = .028), while runners with EA ≥median had higher hip (0.3 ± 0.7 vs −0.4 ± 0.5, P = .002), BMD Z-scores vs controls. After adjusting for calcium intake and running mileage, runners with EA <median had lower mean tibial total and trabecular volumetric BMD, trabecular bone volume fraction, cortical porosity, and apparent modulus vs controls (P < .05). Appendicular lean mass and serum estradiol (R ≥ 0.45, P ≤ .046), but not testosterone, were positively associated with tibial failure load among runners. Conclusions Despite weight-bearing activity, skeletal integrity is impaired in male runners with lower caloric intake relative to exercise energy expenditure, which may increase bone stress injury risk. Lower estradiol and lean mass are associated with lower tibial strength in runners.

Haines, Melanie S. (ORCID:0000000310024754)↗

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

TEAMER: MADWEC Techno-Economic Analysis

The objective of this project was for the facility to conduct a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of the Maximal Asymmetric Drag Wave Energy Converter (MADWEC), developed by the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (UMass Dartmouth). MADWEC is used for powering remote monitoring and Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) charging systems compared to other existing power supply options. The assessment estimates capital expenditures (CapEx), operational expenditures (OpEx), and power performance for 18 scenarios with the purpose of identifying key cost drivers, comparing total system cost, and comparing the power performance of the power supply options in terms of required installed capacity and estimated theoretical annual energy performance. The 18 assessed scenarios include two end-uses: 1) AUV charging and 2) offshore remote monitoring); three power sources: 1) MADWEC), 2) photovoltaic (PV) solar buoy, 3) and traditional battery swapping); and three locations; 1) nearshore, 2) far-offshore, and 3) high-latitude). In addition, other project goals included developing high level installation, operation, and maintenance plans for each scenario. The techno-economic model, created in Microsoft Excel, estimates CapEx, OpEx, and the power performance of each power supply source. The model has a dynamic format that allows custom inputs to accommodate future changes to the systems being assessed. This is a TEA for the MADWEC project, TEAMER RFTS 7 (request for technical support) program.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Smart Charging for Electric Ride-Hailing Vehicles using Renewables: A San Francisco Case Study

Charging large fleets of electric ride-hailing vehicles (ERVs) is a complex matter that could serve different objectives: lower carbon dioxide emissions, lower monetary expenditures, or maximize solar photovoltaics (PV) energy consumption. Currently, it is unclear how each of those objectives could impact the business and performance of a ride-hailing fleet. In order to fill this gap, this article employs a dynamic transportation model: a smart charging simulation that combines agent-based, discrete-event, and system dynamic modelling by comparing the above-mentioned objectives in separate scenarios. The results show that each scenario successfully manages to shift between 34% and 87% of all load to hours of the day when the objectives of those scenarios are met. Therefore, in comparison to the baseline, smart charging can save between 5% and 26% of monthly emissions and between 4% and 57% of monthly expenditures. The solar PV scenario, however, results in the highest savings, while ensuring profitable economics via net metering in the short- as well as long term. Finally, the sensitivity analysis points to important trade-offs between several fleet performance metrics. The article concludes by giving business and policy recommendations for maximising the economic, energy and environmental efficiency of large ERV fleets.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Zeolite Membrane Reactor for Pre-Combustion Carbon Dioxide Capture (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Water-gas shift (WGS) reaction followed by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) separation is a critical step in the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) process for fossil-fuel-fired electrical power generation with CO 2 capture. To intensify the IGCC process hydrogen-permselective zeolite membrane reactor offers promise to replace the conventional energy-intensive fixed-bed reactors and solvent-based CO 2 capture units. The objectives of this project were to develop a bench-scale zeolite membrane reactor (total membrane area: 932 cm 2 for a 21-tube membrane bundle) for the water-gas-shift reaction of raw syngas from an oxygen-blown coal-gasifier for H 2 production with simultaneous CO 2 separation at the capability of about 2 kilograms H 2 per day (equivalent to 2 kW IGCC power plant) and to demonstrate significant progress toward achieving overall performance goal of 90% CO 2 capture rate with 95% CO 2 purity at the cost of electricity 30% less than the baseline carbon capture approaches. This report summarizes results obtained in this project on scaling up the zeolite membrane reactor by a factor of 200 in membrane area, tests of the bench-scale zeolite membrane reactor for the water-gas-shift reaction at high temperature and high-pressure, and techno-economic analysis of the integration of the zeolite membrane reactor in IGCC power plant for the electrical generation with CO 2 capture. With effective pore modification by catalytic cracking deposition of MDES (methyldiethoxysilane), fabrication of MFI-type zeolite membranes was successfully scaled-up from a lab-scale disk type to bench-scale multiple-tube bundles on low-cost alumina supports. A Co-Mo based sour shift catalyst was evaluated and used in the zeolite membrane reactors for water-gas-shift reaction. The reaction kinetic and gas-permeation equations were developed and employed in mathematic models to guide/predict experiments/performance of zeolite membrane reactors for water-gas shift reaction. Multiple-tube zeolite membrane bundles and reactors were designed, fabricated and tested for gas separation and water-gas-shift reactions with real raw syngas from a coal-fired gasifier operated at high temperature and pressure. The zeolite membrane reactors demonstrated good long-term thermal and chemical stability and constant H 2 permeance (>300 GPU) together with a Knudsen selectivity (~4.7) for H 2 over CO 2 in the field test (cumulative time >28 hours) with high-sulfur coal-derived syngas. The zeolite-membrane-reactor integrated IGCC process was designed using the performance experimentally measured by the University of Cincinnati team with a single-tube zeolite membrane reactor that offers a CO conversion >98% with more than 90% of CO 2 and H 2 captured. With the above integrative approaches, a techno-economic analysis for a cost-benefit comparison was performed to uncover features that determine the power output, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, cost of electricity and cost of CO 2 capture in a 550-MW zeolite-membrane-reactor integrated IGCC process. The integration of the zeolite membrane reactor in IGCC could provide a significant reduction of 80% and 27% in the power consumption for Selexol™ Acid Gas Removal and CO 2 compression, respectively, which lowers the total auxiliary power consumption by 12.5%. However, the low pressure required at permeate stream for maintaining the driving force of hydrogen permeation through the zeolite membrane costs a huge power in permeate compressor, compensating the power consumption reduction achieved with the membrane reactor. Thus, for coal-fired IGCC for electricity generation with 90% CO 2 captured, the integration of the membrane reactor could provide a CO conversion ~99% and a significant drop in cost-of-electricity using zeolite membrane with H 2 permeance >600 GPU and the H 2 /CO 2 selectivity over 70.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Low Cost (CAPEX and variable): Tool design for cell and module fabrication with thin, free-standing silicon wafers

This project aimed to develop technologies that can potentially enable free-standing thin (<80 μm) wafer in today’s manufacturing lines with high production yield, and thereby reduce capex barriers of silicon photovoltaics cells and modules. One of the major benefits is that thin wafer dramatically reduces the amount of polysilicon required. As a result, it can lead to reduction in the capital expenditures associated with polysilicon refining and wafer fabrication, which together are more than half of the total capital expenditure to manufacture Si PV module. We focused our efforts on developing the tools needed to enable high yield fabrication of wafer, cell, and module with thin silicon wafers. However, as the wafer thickness reduces, the major challenge is that wafer breakage increases significantly. Three technological areas were explored in this project to improve the production yield of the silicon wafer, namely detection of edge cracks via dark-field near-infrared (NIR) scattering; (2) wafer handling using controlled temperature profiles; (3) manufacturable low-stress cell interconnection for multiwire. First, the formation of wafer cracks in submillimeter length is one of the reasons that causes wafer breakages. Crack detection tools are needed to enable us to locate and track the wafer crack during manufacturing, so that we can improve the process to reduce initialization. The state-of-the-art crack detection technique cannot fulfill the need for measuring submillimeter edge cracks detrimental for thin wafers. The prototype developed in this project demonstrates the scanning of microcracks near wafer edges. With a semi-automatic laboratory setup, the submillimeter cracks were reliably detected near the edges in multi-Si wafers. The smallest detectable crack is 200 µm in length in slow scans; and submillimeter cracks are detected in high-throughput scans at the scan speed of >0.5 m/s, which is compatible with the inline detection of a manufacturing line at least 1 sec/wafer. This detection limit is a significant advancement in comparison to the benchmarked industrial tool. Second, wafer handling with the well-controlled temperature profile was thought to be the solution to reduce crack initiation and propagation during the manufacturing. However, without crack detection being widely adopted in production line, we did not find a strong industrial pull toward this technology. We did an initial literature survey and then diverted our efforts to the other tasks. Third, the innovation on low-stress multi-wire interconnection tackles a fundamental problem in the standard interconnection scheme. The standard over-under “zig-zag” interconnection induces a significant amount of stress into the soldering point on the cell whenever PV module is under stress, e.g., thermal cycling, transportation, and installation. Therefore, the interconnection process was re-designed in this project to allow for significant movement between adjacent solar cells, e.g., due to thermal expansion, without building up stresses on the solar cells or solder joints. The new interconnection method with the cross-connect wire also simplifies the tabbing and stringing process by replacing the standard over-under method with an off-cell interconnect from top to bottom. A manual tabbing and stringing tool for this new process was prototyped in the lab to demonstrate the fabrication of this new interconnection design. During the test with brass sheets as our “testing cells”, it was found that the mechanical cycling test only broke the interconnection after more than 50,000 cycles, which is equivalent to more than 130 years of the day-and-night thermal cycles. Lastly, throughout the project, we continuously analyzed the PV market with techno-economic analysis to identify the opportunity for thin Si adoption. Even though the drastic cost reduction has already happened in the past five years, our analysis results indicated that we can still save quite significantly in both manufacturing cost and factory capex, Particularly, in order to grow the PV manufacturing capacity to multi-terawatt level, reducing the thickness of silicon wafer is one of the most effective ways to quickly reduce factory capex, and sustain the high growth rate. The technologies developed in this project are readily available to provide some assistances in tackling the production yield problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Benchmarking Utility-Scale PV Operational Expenses and Project Lifetimes: Results from a Survey of U.S. Solar Industry Professionals

This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗