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Status memorandum on ORNL support of vendor irradiation capsule design and ASME irradiation code development and new ASTM test standard development activities

This report is in submission of completion of the Level 4 milestone number M4TG-24OR0501111 within the larger Advanced Reactor Technologies Gas Cooled Reactor program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The focus of this year’s efforts is to continue support of industry needs related to the development of future industry-funded irradiation programs. At ORNL these efforts included the development of a generalized three-dimensional CAD model of an irradiation creep capsules for graphite, cost estimates of the expansion of the Materials Irradiation Facility (MIF), involvement with ASTM D02.F0 “Manufactured Carbon and Graphite Products” and the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, and publication of papers supporting these efforts. This report will document the status of these activities.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ATEAM4Py: An Efficient and Scalable Python-Based Model for Charging Demand

This report details the development and implementation of ATEAM4Py, a Python-based simulation model that projects demand for battery electric vehicle (BEV) charging based on adoption trends and consumer behavior. With Exelon’s support, Argonne National Laboratory converted the original Java-based Agent-based Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM) into Python, resulting in a faster and more efficient tool for forecasting the timing, location, and scale of charging demand growth. ATEAM4Py tackles key challenges in simulation efficiency and runtime, supporting the strategic development of cost-effective grid capacity expansion strategies and ensuring reliable service for stakeholders.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Reduction of acoustic disturbances in the test section of supersonic wind tunnels by laminarizing their nozzle and test section wall boundary layers by means of suction

The feasibility of quiet, suction laminarized, high Reynolds number (Re) supersonic wind tunnel nozzles was studied. According to nozzle wall boundary layer development and stability studies, relatively weak area suction can prevent amplified nozzle wall TS (Tollmien-Schlichting) boundary layer oscillations. Stronger suction is needed in and shortly upstream of the supersonic concave curvature nozzle area to avoid transition due to amplified TG (Taylor-Goertler) vortices. To control TG instability, moderately rapid and slow expansion nozzles require smaller total suction rates than rapid expansion nozzles, at the cost of larger nozzle length Re and increased TS disturbances. Test section mean flow irregularities can be minimized with suction through longitudinal or highly swept slots (swept behind local Mach cone) as well as finely perforated surfaces. Longitudinal slot suction is optimized when the suction-induced crossflow velocity increases linearly with surface distance from the slot attachment line toward the slot (through suitable slot geometry). Suction in supersonic blowdown tunnels may be operated by one or several individual vacuum spheres.

Pfenninger, W.↗

The development of a cislunar space infrastructure

The primary objective of this Advanced Mission Design Program is to define the general characteristics and phased evolution of a near-Earth space infrastructure. The envisioned foundation includes a permanently manned, self-sustaining base on the lunar surface, a space station at the Libration Point between earth and the moon (L1), and a transportation system that anchors these elements to the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) station. The implementation of this conceptual design was carried out with the idea that the infrastructure is an important step in a larger plan to expand man's capabilities in space science and technology. Such expansion depends on low cost, reliable, and frequent access to space for those who wish to use the multiple benefits of this environment. The presence of a cislunar space infrastructure would greatly facilitate the staging of future planetary missions, as well as the full exploration of the lunar potential for science and industry. The rationale for, and a proposed detailed scenario in support of, the cislunar space infrastructure are discussed.

Buck, C. A.↗

Rocket-in-a-Duct Performance Analysis

An axisymmetric, 110 N class, rocket configured with a free expansion between the rocket nozzle and a surrounding duct was tested in an altitude simulation facility. The propellants were gaseous hydrogen and gaseous oxygen and the hardware consisted of a heat sink type copper rocket firing through copper ducts of various diameters and lengths. A secondary flow of nitrogen was introduced at the blind end of the duct to mix with the primary rocket mass flow in the duct. This flow was in the range of 0 to 10% of the primary massflow and its effect on nozzle performance was measured. The random measurement errors on thrust and massflow were within +/-1%. One dimensional equilibrium calculations were used to establish the possible theoretical performance of these rocket-in-a-duct nozzles. Although the scale of these tests was small, they simulated the relevant flow expansion physics at a modest experimental cost. Test results indicated that lower performance was obtained at higher free expansion area ratios and longer ducts, while, higher performance was obtained with the addition of secondary flow. There was a discernable peak in specific impulse efficiency at 4% secondary flow. The small scale of these tests resulted in low performance efficiencies, but prior numerical modeling of larger rocket-in-a-duct engines predicted performance that was comparable to that of optimized rocket nozzles. This remains to be proven in large-scale, rocket-in-a-duct tests.

Schneider, Steven J.↗

Quantifying the Value of Technology and Policy Innovation in Water Resource Portfolios

Abstract Recent water infrastructure planning models demonstrate that explicitly accounting for hydrological changes in long‐term water planning reduces costs and increases system robustness. However, current models do not consider the effects of other changes occurring in the system over long time horizons, namely technology and policy innovation. By leveraging state‐of‐the‐art dynamic control techniques, we propose a suite of tools that explicitly relate hydrologic change, technology innovation, and policy interventions to system‐level water costs. We design robust and cost‐optimal strategies for water supply expansion under hydrological variability and hundreds of plausible innovation states, for example, treatment cost and diversification improvements, deployment times, and demand reduction campaigns. Our approach circumvents the need to pre‐assign probabilities to innovation scenarios and, instead, directly calculates the effects of technology, policy, and hydrology variations on system cost and planning strategies to identify avenues of impactful innovation. These tools can support technology development hubs, urban, state, and federal water planners in anticipating cost implications of technology and policy innovation at the local level, and prioritizing high‐impact innovation goals based on quantitative targets. Results for the case study of Santa Barbara, California identify high‐value innovation attributes for the city as well as combinations of innovation attributes across technologies and policies, and quantify their potential utility cost reductions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimal Gas-Electric Energy System Decarbonization Planning

As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cost-Effectiveness of Local Distribution Tied Solar within KyMEA

KyMEA is a Kentucky joint action agency which provides electric transmission and energy services to eleven municipal utilities. One of KyMEA's member cities, Frankfort, has set a goal to reach 100% renewable generation for the city load by 2023 and 100% carbon free city operations and 100% renewable generation community-wide by 2030. The aim of this research was to determine if the Frankfort city government could reduce its power costs by implementing distribution tied solar while also avoiding any cross subsidization between other KyMEA member utilities or other Frankfort Plant Board customers. The project simulated the KyMEA generation portfolio and transmission system from KyMEA's cost perspective using the NREL Engage capacity expansion model. Running in operate mode, the authors used Engage to compare KyMEA's costs to operate the baseline system to its costs to operate the system with Frankfort meeting some of its load with distribution-tied PV. The cost perspective of Frankfort Plant Board, meanwhile, was simulated using Python. The simulations indicated that it would be cost-beneficial to KyMEA, i.e., that no additional costs would be borne by other members, and that it would be cost-neutral to Frankfort Plant Board for Frankfort city government to implement distribution tied utility-scale PV. The new load attributes resulting from the distribution-tied PV lowered KyMEA's cost to serve load by improving system load factor, reducing system transmission and energy costs, and increasing revenues from market energy sales.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced sorbents for modular oxygen production for REMS gasifiers

Under a DOE funded effort, Thermosolv LLC has been developing a sorbent-based oxygen production technology for gasification and oxy-combustion applications. The sorbents utilize oxygen-storage properties of certain perovskites to (1) selectively adsorb oxygen at moderate temperature from compressed air and (2) release the adsorbed oxygen into a vacuum or a sweep gas such as CO2 and/or steam. Through cyclic operations of multiple sorbent beds such a process can be made continuous. Pressure drop across the sorbent bed and other similar design considerations dictate that the sorbent be in the form of a high surface-area-to-volume pellet and yet still possess sufficient crush strength and integrity. Process efficiency is determined by the sorption and desorption kinetics and sorbent capacity. Typical process involves cycle times in the order of 100 seconds, a time too short to fully utilize the full volume of the sorbent and the sorption capacity of the sorbent pellets. As a part of this project, Thermosolv LLC undertook the development of oxygen sorbents as a high-surface area supported sorbent on a light-weight inert support to (1) reduce the cost, (2) increase the productivity, and (3) reduce the overall weight of the reactor. Using a previously developed perovskite (LSCF 1991) with its well-characterized performance, composite sorbent pellets each consisting of an inert core coated by a thin layer of the functional perovskite material were produced. Several low-density, inexpensive inert solids supports in the 1/8”-1/4” size were selected to keep the pressure drop across the sorbent bed in the acceptable range. A number of commercial technologies including spray coating, dip coating, incipient impregnation of porous substrate followed by thermal annealing at various temperatures and duration were employed and tested to produce robust composite supported sorbent pellets. A sense of optimum coating thickness was developed by testing sorbent pellets of various increasing diameter pellets. LSCF-1991extrudates ranging in size from 1/32” to 3/16” were tested in a TGA and in a fixed-bed pressure swing test set-up for sorption/desorption cycles of interest. The data show that for the operational conditions of interest the coating thickness for a supported sorbent pellet needs to be approximately 1/32” (about 0.8 mm). Subsequent work thereby concentrated on developing composite pellets of various substrates, shapes and sizes with coating layer of about this size range. Candidate support materials were chosen based on cost, inertness, mechanical strength, thermal expansion and chemical stability with sorbent material, and in a size range to give an acceptable pressure drop in fixed-bad reactor configurations. Coating application methods used for application of the sorbent onto the support included precipitation, spray coating and dip coating from sorbent slurries and sol gels. For all coated supports where we could successfully apply a uniform coating of desired thickness with an acceptable handling performance in terms of exfoliation, TGA-based cyclic sorption/desorption testing was performed to determine cycling capacity of oxygen. Among nearly twenty different support materials tested, best adhesion performance was obtained from stainless saddle supports. In the bench-scale fixed-bad tests stainless steel saddle support composite pellets with a coating thickness in the 0.6 mm or so range, the composite sorbent pellet performance approached up to 95% of that of the 2 mm parent material pellets. In a parallel approach to reducing the cost of the sorbent, alternate sorbent formulations replacing/reducing the amount of cobalt in the LSCF family were also investigated. Successful formulations that could match the performance of LSCF 1991 were identified based on TGA cyclic tests as LSCF 1919 and LSF 1910. In the range of operational envelop of cycle times and other relevant process operating conditions, the reduced Co formulations showed comparable performance in the bench-scale fixed-bad cyclic operations. As a part of this project, we also attempted substitution of La and Sr with Ca and Ba, and Co with Mn, Ni and Cu with little success, but the overall project goal of reducing sorbent cost in terms of raw material and manufacturing expenses was successful.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

IM3 Projected U.S. Western Interconnection Grid Stress Dataset

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from GO WEST and TEP) for Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the U.S. Western Interconnection through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States from a set of Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations. These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for the U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BAs) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a simplified network by utilizing 10,000 nodal topology of the U.S. Western Interconnection (ACTIVSg10k). Users can select different number of nodes, mathematical formulations (linear programming vs. mixed-integer linear programming), transmission line limit scaling factors, and hurdle rate scaling factors. GO WEST offers a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC/ED) module to simulate grid operations on an hourly scale. In this sense, users can calibrate and validate their model versions by comparing model outputs to historical datasets. TEP is an open-source transmission capacity expansion model, built on the GO WEST framework. It utilizes linear programming to optimize transmission capacity addition investment on existing lines within the GO WEST framework. The TEP model only increases the thermal capacity of existing transmission lines and does not add new lines to the system, which leaves the topology preserved. In order to use TEP model, users need to create scenarios with the GO WEST framework. Please refer to README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

GRid Analysis and Visualization Interface (GRAVI) [SWR-24-16]

GRAVI (GRid Analysis and Visualization Interface) is a web application for viewing and analyzing nodal Production Cost Model (PCM) and Capacity Expansion Model (CEM) simulations. The web application provides the ability to animate geospatially coupled timeseries data in an agnostic way regardless of the underlying simulation tool used to generate the data. GRAVI also provides capabilities to animate non-geospatial data relevant to a PCM or CEM model. Furthermore, this web application can be tailored as an real-time operational tool to better understand a live grid.

Webb, Micah↗

Development of the uncertainty quantification toolkit's python interface and surrogate construction tutorial

The uncertainty quantification toolkit (UQTk) is a collection of c++ libraries that assess the confidence of numerical models. Surrogate approximations, often polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs), lessen the computational cost of these assessments. I developed a Python interface in UQTk for regression and Bayesian compressive sensing to add to the existing Galerkin projection method. These methods receive an object containing the polynomial basis information and NumPy arrays of sample points, call c++ methods, and return the PCE coefficients in a NumPy array. To demonstrate these methods, I wrote a tutorial in which I use them to construct surrogates for Genz functions and calculate the resulting error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Systematic, Polynomial-Cost Approach to Exact Correlation Energies (Final Technical Report)

The full configuration interaction (FCI) wave function provides the exact solution to the Schrödinger equation in a given basis set. While FCI is intractable due to exponential computational costs, the many-body expansion (or the method of increments) can reduce scaling to a low-order polynomial with system size. This project entailed advances in the incremental FCI (iFCI) approach, designed to allow iFCI to reach larger system sizes and maintain its intrinsic high accuracy. This document describes advances in solvers for iFCI, strategies to treat multiple charge and spin states, and virtual state management methods to reduce memory requirements. Overall, this project allows iFCI to correlate (for the first time) 142 valence electrons in 444 orbitals in a realistic model of a transition metal complex.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Complementarity of Renewable Energy-Based Hybrid Systems

Increased attention has focused on scenarios of rapid and deep decarbonization of the U.S. electricity supply, with least-cost solutions typically involving significant expansion of renewable energy, energy storage, and transmission assets. Strategies that enable the integration of renewable energy projects while minimizing transmission expansion could be especially valuable in the future. It is within this context that the concept of hybrid power plants (or hybrid energy systems) has gained prominence. One specific example is the FlexPower concept, which seeks to demonstrate how coupling variable renewable energy (VRE) and energy storage technologies can result in renewable-based hybrid power plants that provide full dispatchability and a full range of reliability and resiliency services, similar to or better than fuel-based power plants.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗