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DOE OSTI2021

Potential Link Between 2020 Mentone, West Texas M5 Earthquake and Nearby Wastewater Injection: Implications for Aquifer Mechanical Properties

Abstract The M5 Mentone earthquake that occurred on March 26, 2020, was the largest event recorded over the last 2 decades in West Texas within the Delaware Basin, a U.S. major petroleum‐producing area. Also, numerous hydrofracturing and wastewater disposal wells are spread across this region. Within a 30 km distance to mainshock, eight class‐II injection wells for industrial wastewater disposal target the deep porous Ellenburger aquifer at an average rate of 1.36 × 10 6 barrel (BBL) per month during 2012–2020. Poroelastic models of fluid diffusion show these nearby injectors collectively imparted up to 80.5 kPa of Coulomb stress at the mainshock location, capable of triggering this M5 event. Assuming the Mentone event occurs when pore‐pressure increase is maximum, the time delay between peak injection and the M5 occurrence corresponds with an optimal permeability of 6.76 × 10 ‐14 m 2 for the Ellenburger aquifer layer, in agreement with independent estimates.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data

The objective of this work is to utilize integrated geomechanics, field vertical seismic profile (VSP) and microseismic data to characterize the complex subsurface stress conditions at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). The model is based on a five-spot sector model extracted from a primary geomechanical model. The five-spot well injection pattern is characterized by extensive reservoir characterization data, such well logs, extracted cores and borehole geophone data, to facilitate the detailed examination of stress changes and microseismic event occurrences. The study utilizes field vertical seismic volumes acquired from the injection well 13-10A. The seismic volumes successfully provided snapshots of the behavior of the reservoir at distinct times. The use of VSP and microseismic data provided direct and indirect estimates of the dynamic stress changes occurring in the overburden, reservoir and underburden rock formations. In order to illuminate the stress regions and identify rocks that have undergone inelastic failure, microseismic event occurrences were utilized. Microseismic activity has been detected at the FWU; further study of its locations, timing, and magnitude was needed to deduce the nature of the changing stress state. The results of the study revealed that microseismic events were successfully modeled within the Morrow B formation. Moment magnitudes of seismic events were within the same magnitudes for events in the reservoir, suggesting the suitability of the model. The results of the study showed that the computed moment magnitudes for seismic events were insignificant to warrant safety concerns. The study findings showed the usefulness of coupled hydromechanical models in predicting the subsurface stress changes associated with CO 2 injection. The knowledge gained from this study will serve as a guideline for industries planning to undertake underground CO 2 storage, and characterize the subsurface stress changes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Climate and Extreme Weather Events in the Greater New York Area

The goal of this project is to create a framework for modeling extreme events using climate information for risk assessment in the Greater New York City (NYC) region. The central research question we addressed was how best can we use information from historical climate data and numerical models of the climate system to estimate changing risks of rainfall extremes at specific locations – starting with the NYC region as a testbed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Sensor Trajectory Reconstruction of the 24 April 2025 Alaska Fireball and Implications for Planetary Defense

On 24 April 2025 at 18:30:57 UTC, a bright daytime fireball over Southcentral Alaska was detected by 37 seismic stations, 16 single infrasound sensors, and four infrasound arrays, yielding 30 ballistic and multiple fragmentation arrivals. Here, the unprecedented density of seismoacoustic coverage enabled detailed reconstruction of the event using acoustic signals, with fragmentation source locations further guiding the identification of Doppler weather radar signatures of a meteorite fall. Incorporation of a radar-derived terminal point yielded a final trajectory solution, which agreed closely with an independent optical trajectory solution from video analysis. The reconstructed entry parameters from seismoacoustic analysis indicate a velocity of 25.3 km/s, an entry angle of 19°, and an energy release of ∼38 t TNT equivalent. Assuming a chondritic composition, the pre-entry object diameter was ∼0.7 m. Using orbital parameters from the optical solution, we estimate meteoroid composition as most likely an L-type ordinary chondrite. The event occurred in the sub-Arctic, where space-based optical systems face challenges in detection, demonstrating the critical role of dense ground-based seismoacoustic networks in characterizing high-latitude atmospheric entries. This uniquely well-recorded event demonstrates the capability of dense seismoacoustic networks to constrain bolide trajectories, energetics, and fragmentation, with radar and optical data providing critical confirmation and complementary perspectives. These results bridge the methodological gap between planetary-defense monitoring of natural impactors and space-traffic analyses of artificial reentries, illustrating how multi-sensor integration can deliver calibration-grade trajectories even for unpredicted events.

Fireball↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial and temporal variability of tritium in precipitation within South Africa and it's bearing on hydrological studies

Tritium, the radioactive isotope of hydrogen, has been used to understand groundwater recharge processes for decades. The current variation of tritium in the atmosphere is largely attributed to stratospheric production and fall out rates as well as global circulation phenomena controlling the hydrological cycle. Global controls on the variability in atmospheric tritium activity are poorly suited to explain local variation and tritium activities in precipitation are often assumed to be uniform over both local and regional catchments and watersheds. This assumption can result in both over and under estimation of modern recharge within an aquifer when using tritium as the recharge proxy. In order to minimize the inherent prediction residuals associated with tritium based recharge investigations, the variability of tritium in precipitation was modelled from 127 spatial precipitation samples taken over a two year period, combined with a 76 precipitation sample group-set taken over a one year period in a single location. Precipitation events were traced backward in time, from the point of collection, using HYSPLIT modelling to ascertain the origins of moisture content as well as the altitudes of moisture origin reached along the particle track. Tritium activities, collected over a one year period in Paarl, range from 0.45 to 4.16 TU and have a mean of 1.59 TU. Spatial storm events in the Western Cape in 2017 and 2018 had a range from 0 to 2.2 and 0.37 to 3.27 TU, respectively, with mean activities of 1.18 (n = 34) and 1.25 TU (n = 32). Both storm events had similar tritium variability (σ = 0.5 n = 35 and 0.48 n = 32). Regional precipitation events had the largest range of tritium activities (0.55–12.2 TU). Although not all tritium activities can be explained by interrogating the water mass origin, this study suggests that approximately 90% of events can be completely or partially attributed to the origin of the water mass. The variability of tritium, both spatially and temporally, was higher than expected, confirming that when uniform tritium inputs are used, the groundwater system would provide inaccurate modern recharge estimates. Higher spatial resolution of tritium variation in precipitation for a particular region will improve our ability to relate tritium activities in groundwater to local precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor: Safety Design Approach

Deployment Objectives Flexibly co-locate with new industry users of nuclear energy Steam and electric cogeneration applications Direct process heat with temperature ranges from 700°C to 950°C Enabling Requirements Meet regulatory dose limits at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) 25 rem Total Effective Dose Equivalent (TEDE) for duration of the release from 10 CFR 50.34 (10 CFR 52.79) at Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) for design basis accidents EAB is estimated approximately 400 meters from the modular HTGR plant (to support co-location with industrial facilities) Meet safety goals for cumulative individual risk for normal and off-normal operation Design goal: meet EPA Protective Action Guides (PAGs) at EAB 1 rem TEDE for sheltering Design basis and beyond design basis events are considered Realistically evaluated at the EAB Emergency planning and protection

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The geometry of signal space: a case study of direct mapping between seismic signals and event distribution

SUMMARY Under favourable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal-space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection and scaling, with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

LL18-Signal Analysis-NDD2Ad (Final Report)

Under favorable circumstances, seismic waveforms corresponding to an ensemble of events related by a common, spatially-distributed process collectively exhibit a regular, signal-space geometry. When events in the ensemble have a common, or nearly common, source mechanism, this geometry is a distorted image of the distribution of events in the source region. The signal space image can be visualized using a relatively simple waveform alignment and projection operation. Ensemble waveform correlation measurements can be inverted to estimate the distribution of the events in the source region, up to an arbitrary rotation, reflection, and scaling with residual distortion. We demonstrate these concepts with synthetic waveforms and with observations of long-wall mining induced seismicity for which substantial ground truth information is available. Our experience with these data has implications for location, correlation detection and machine learning, and possible application to studies of repeating events in induced, volcanic, and glacial seismicity. Our results place limits on the widely-held assumption that waveform correlation is a useful measure of event separation. We suggest that the constraints on event separation need to be evaluated in the context of a population of related events, whose waveforms sample the signal space image of the source region. A better indicator of event separation is the length of the shortest path in signal space along the image.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Radiogenic Noble Gas Nuclides to Identify and Characterize Rock Fracturing

Abstract Fracture‐released radiogenic noble gas nuclides are used to identify locations and constrain the volume of new fracture creation during subsurface detonations. Real‐time, in situ noble gases and reactive gases were monitored using a field‐deployed mass spectrometer and automated sampling system in a multilevel borehole array. Released gases were measured after two different detonations having distinct energy, pressure, and gas volume characteristics. Explosive‐derived gases (N 2 O, CO 2 ) and excess radiogenic 4 He and 40 Ar above atmospheric background are used to identify locations of gas transport and new fracture creation after each detonation. Fracture‐released radiogenic 4 He is used to constrain the volume of newly created fractures with a model of helium release from fracturing. Explosive by‐product gas was observed in multiple locations both near and distal to the shot locations for both detonations. Radiogenic 4 He and 40 Ar release from rock damage was observed in locations near the detonation after the second, more powerful detonation. Observed 4 He response is consistent with a model of diffusive release from newly created fractures. Volume of new fractures estimated from the 4 He release ranges from 1 to 5 m 2 with apertures ranging from 0.1 to 1 m. Our results provide evidence that radiogenic noble gases released during fracture creation can be identified at the field scale in real time and used to identify timing and location of fracture creation during deformation events. This technique could be useful in subsurface science and engineering problems where the location and amount of newly created rock fracturing is of interest including fault rupture, mine safety, subsurface detonation monitoring and reservoir stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Contaminant Source Identification from Finite Sensor Data: Perron–Frobenius Operator and Bayesian Inference

Sensors in the built environment ensure safety and comfort by tracking contaminants in the occupied space. In the event of contaminant release, it is important to use the limited sensor data to rapidly and accurately identify the release location of the contaminant. Identification of the release location will enable subsequent remediation as well as evacuation decision-making. In previous work, we used an operator theoretic approach—based on the Perron–Frobenius (PF) operator—to estimate the contaminant concentration distribution in the domain given a finite amount of streaming sensor data. In the current work, the approach is extended to identify the most probable contaminant release location. The release location identification is framed as a Bayesian inference problem. The Bayesian inference approach requires considering multiple release location scenarios, which is done efficiently using the discrete PF operator. The discrete PF operator provides a fast, effective and accurate model for contaminant transport modeling. The utility of our PF-based Bayesian inference methodology is illustrated using single-point release scenarios in both two and three-dimensional cases. The method provides a fast, accurate, and efficient framework for real-time identification of contaminant source location.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

OGLE-2018-BLG-0567Lb and OGLE-2018-BLG-0962Lb: Two Microlensing Planets through the Planetary-caustic Channel

We present the analyses of two microlensing events, OGLE-2018-BLG-0567 and OGLE-2018-BLG-0962. In both events, the short-lasting anomalies were densely and continuously covered by two high-cadence surveys. The light-curve modeling indicates that the anomalies are generated by source crossings over the planetary caustics induced by planetary companions to the hosts. The estimated planet/host separation (scaled to the angular Einstein radius θ {sub E}) and mass ratio are (s, q × 10{sup 3}) = (1.81 ± 0.02, 1.24 ± 0.07) and (s, q × 10{sup 3}) = (1.25 ± 0.03, 2.38 ± 0.08), respectively. From Bayesian analyses, we estimate the host and planet masses as (M{sub h},M{sub p})=(0.25{sub −0.13}{sup +0.27} M{sub ⊙},0.32{sub −0.17}{sup +0.34} M{sub J}) and (M{sub h},M{sub p})=(0.54{sub −0.28}{sup +0.33} M{sub ⊙},1.34{sub −0.70}{sup +0.82} M{sub J}), respectively. These planetary systems are located at a distance of 7.06{sub −1.15}{sup +0.93} kpc for OGLE-2018-BLG-0567 and 6.50{sub −1.75}{sup +1.06} kpc for OGLE-2018-BLG-0962, suggesting that they are likely to be near the Galactic bulge. The two events prove the capability of current high-cadence surveys for finding planets through the planetary-caustic channel. We find that most published planetary-caustic planets are found in Hollywood events in which the source size strongly contributes to the anomaly cross-section relative to the size of the caustic.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Neutrino Final States and Energies in MicroBooNE with New Deep-Learning Based LArTPC Reconstruction Frameworks

MicroBooNE, a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located in the $\nu_{\mu}$-dominated Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab, has been studying $\nu_{e}$ charged-current (CC) interaction rates to shed light on the MiniBooNE low energy excess. The LArTPC technology employed by MicroBooNE provides the capability to image neutrino interactions with mm-scale precision. Computer vision and other machine learning techniques are promising tools for image processing that could boost efficiencies for selecting $\nu_{e}$-CC and other rare signals, reduce cosmic and beam-induced backgrounds, and improve the reconstruction of neutrino energies. The MicroBooNE experiment has been at the forefront of developing and testing such techniques for use in physics analyses. In this poster we overview deep-learning based reconstruction methods. We will showcase the use of a recurrent neural network to estimate neutrino energies and present a new reconstruction framework that uses convolutional neural networks to locate neutrino interaction vertices, tag pixels with track and shower labels, and perform particle identification on reconstructed clusters. We will present studies characterizing the performance of these new tools and demonstrate their effectiveness through their use in an inclusive $\nu_{e}$-CC event selection.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Neutrino Final States and Energies in MicroBooNE with New Deep-Learning Based LArTPC Reconstruction Frameworks

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring

Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.

geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Locating Operational Events of the Cooling Tower of a Nuclear Reactor with a Very Local Seismic Network

Geolocation of emergent seismic signals is challenging at close distances. Here, we used three-component data from a seismic network and a targeted experiment at a research nuclear reactor to locate seismic sources. Utilizing known events collected during the targeted experiment, we were able to infer source locations with seismic amplitudes and polarization characteristics of the data. Although the resolution of the source location is not perfect, the seismic amplitudes and polarization analysis offer useful constraints. For the known events, the source region inferred with our analysis includes the true source locations. Synthetic tests indicate the resolution is largely due to limited data coverage and measurement uncertainties because the synthetic tests show similar results compared with the field data. We identified the source of the unknown event through spectrum cross correlation between the signals from the known events and an unknown event. Our findings were confirmed by operational staff at the facility. When the propagation medium properties (i.e., seismic velocity and quality factor for attenuation) are known, our analysis can be applied to continuous data from a seismic array to infer both source amplitude and location. If the medium properties are not known, a targeted experiment can be conducted to estimate them.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A framework to enhance disaster debris estimation with AI and aerial photogrammetry

This study addresses the critical need to enhance disaster preparedness and response, focusing on hurricane impact assessment and debris estimation. Accurate assessments in this context are critical for post-event search-and-rescue (SAR) operations and resource distribution. Recent computing advancements are revealing the potential of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in collecting data and assisting with post-hurricane reconnaissance. However, the use of AI and UAV photogrammetry for accurate disaster impact analysis remains underexplored. To this end, this study proposes a damage and debris analysis framework harnessing reality capture through aerial imagery and photogrammetry. Within this framework, a region-based neural network is leveraged to detect debris locations in aerial imagery with favorable performance. In a testbed within the Beaumont-Port Arthur region, in Southeast Texas, this study performs 3D reality captures of the built environment. Since the accuracy of the 3D reality capture is of importance in research areas associated with time-sensitive disaster response, we further investigate the optimal 2D aerial imagery overlap ratio required to generate a sufficiently accurate 3D model for disaster impact analysis and debris volume estimation. Results indicate that, in the case of aerial imagery for infrastructure systems, a minimum of 60 % overlap is recommended for damage assessment and debris analysis. In contrast, for flat green areas, a minimum of 50 % overlap is adequate. Overall, for disaster response applications, our study reveals that an overlap ratio between 60 % and 70 % is optimal for achieving a balance between time efficiency and data quality in aerial data collection. Furthermore, these quantitative recommendations are crucial for enabling efficient disaster response efforts. Additionally, our study outcomes will improve disaster impact analysis and facilitating timely and effective response strategies.

Artificial intelligence↗