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For treaty monitoring, the ability to accurately locate seismic events is essential. Since many event location techniques rely on the comparison of observed to predicted seismic wave travel times through the Earth, it is important to be able to accurately estimate travel times and their uncertainties.
During a survey of infrared emission detected by IRAS from shock-heated dust associated with Galactic SNRs, a roughly 1 deg diameter supernova remnant shell centered 30 arcmin east of SNR CTB80's core was discovered. The pulsar's projected location inside this infrared emission shell, together with similar distance and age estimates, suggest that both the shell and pulsar were produced by the same supernova event. It is proposed that the interaction between the pulsar's energetic particle emission and the shell's compressed interstellar magnetic field can explain CTB80's remarkable radio structure, and the implications of such pulsar/SNR interactions are discussed.
Spatial correlations of two of the main rain drop-size distribution (DSD) parameters - namely the median-volume diameter (Do) and the normalized intercept parameter (Nw) - as well as rainfall rate (R) are determined from polarimetric radar measurements, with added information from 2D video disdrometer (2DVD) data. Two cases have been considered, (i) a widespread, long-duration rain event in Huntsville, Alabama, and (ii) an event with localized intense rain-cells within a convection line which occurred during the MC3E campaign. For the first case, data from a C-band polarimetric radar (ARMOR) were utilized, with two 2DVDs acting as ground-truth , both being located at the same site 15 km from the radar. The radar was operated in a special near-dwelling mode over the 2DVDs. In the second case, data from an S-band polarimetric radar (NPOL) data were utilized, with at least five 2DVDs located between 20 and 30 km from the radar. In both rain event cases, comparisons of Do, log10(Nw) and R were made between radar derived estimates and 2DVD-based measurements, and were found to be in good agreement, and in both cases, the radar data were subsequently used to determine the spatial correlations For the first case, the spatial decorrelation distance was found to be smallest for R (4.5 km), and largest fo Do (8.2 km). For log10(Nw) it was 7.2 km (Fig. 1). For the second case, the corresponding decorrelation distances were somewhat smaller but had a directional dependence. In Fig. 2, we show an example of Do comparisons between NPOL based estimates and 1-minute DSD based estimates from one of the five 2DVDs.
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes ~ 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.
Abstract Impact cratering is one of the fundamental processes throughout the history of the Solar System. The formation of new impact craters on planetary bodies has been observed with repeat images from orbiting satellites. However, the time gap between images is often large enough to preclude detailed analysis of smaller‐scale features such as secondary impact craters, which are often removed or buried over a short time period. Here we use a seismic event detected on Mars by the NASA InSight mission to investigate secondary cratering at a new impact crater. We strengthen the case that the seismic event that occurred on Sol 1034 (S1034a) is the result of a new impact cratering event. Using the exact timing of this event from InSight, we investigated the resulting new impact crater in orbital image data. The S1034a impact crater is approximately 9 m in diameter but is responsible for over 900 secondary impact events in the form of low albedo spots that are located at distances of up to almost 7 km from the primary crater. We suggest that the low albedo spots formed from relatively low energy ejecta, with individual ejecta block velocities less than 200 m s −1 . We estimate that the low albedo spots, the main evidence of secondary impact processes at this new impact event, fade within 200–300 days after formation.
We have recorded a series of outbursts starting on 1996 Dec. 2 that are consistent with the position of GRO J1744-28, the bursting pulsar. The bursts are detected between 20 and 100 keV, and on Dec. 2 they came in variable rates ranging from every 300 to every 500 s, with a preliminary total number estimated between 80 and 1 00 events. After Dec. 3, the burst rate dropped to 15-20 bursts/day, where it has remained. The current average error radius of the burst locations is about 4 deg. The burst fluence is currently about 2 x 10E-7 erg cmE-2. This indicates that the source is in outburst again. Although the source location is currently very close to the sun, we encourage observations in other wavelengths whenever possible. Persistent, hard x-ray emission from GRO J1744-28 (IAUC 6272, 6284, 6285) is currently being detected through both pulsation and earth occultation. Pulsations with a period near 0.467 s became detectable on Dec. 17, rising to a 20- to 40-keV-rms-pulsed flux of 1.3(1) x 10E-9 erg cmE-1 sE-1 (170 mCrab) by 1997 Jan. 3. On Jan. 1.0, the intrinsic pulse frequency was 2.1408983(4) Hz, and the spin-up rate was 2.8(5) x l0E-12 HzsE-1. This assumes the following circular orbit parameters: P = 11.83665(14) days; epoch of longitude 90 deg = JD 2450126.9977(4) TDB; a sin i = 2.6371(5) light-s (determined using data from the 1995 Dec.-l996 Apr. outburst). Earth-occultation monitoring of flux from GRO J1744-28 shows its intensity increasing by a factor of about two during 1996 Dec. 25-1997 Jan. 6. Although source confusion prevents a precise flux estimate, subtracting a 25-percent background for unresolved galactic-center sources yields a persistent flux for Jan. 3-6 in the energy bands 20-30, 30-40, and 40-50 keV of 590, 470, and 290 mcrab, respectively."
Records of infrasonic signals, propagating through the Earth's atmosphere in the frequency band 2 to 16 Hz, were gathered on a three microphone array at Langley Research Center throughout the year 1984. Digital processing of these records fulfilled three functions: time delay estimation, based on an adaptive filter; source location, determined from the time delay estimates; and source identification, based on spectral analysis. Meteorological support was provided by significant meteorological advisories, lightning locator plots, and daily reports from the Air Weather Service. The infrasonic data are organized into four characteristic signatures, one of which is believed to contain emissions from local meteorological sources. This class of signature prevailed only on those days when major global meteorological events appeared in or near to eastern United States. Eleven case histories are examined. Practical application of the infrasonic array in a low level wing shear alert system is discussed.
In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency storage assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency storage assets placed prior to an extreme event.
The objective of this investigation was to study the effects of small amplitude sinusoidal pulsations on fully developed turbulent flow in a tube from both experimental and theoretical viewpoints. Theoretical models for the macroscopic behavior of pulsating turbulent tube flow were developed for the two cases of very low and very high pulsation frequencies. The models are based on assumptions of quasi-steady and frozen eddy viscosity flow behavior, respectively. The models successfully predict unsteady velocity profiles, thereby supporting the currently proposed definitions of frequency regimes in pulsating turbulent flow. Experimental measurements were made of the time-dependent pressure drop and velocity profiles over the range of frequency-to-Reynolds number ratios from 0.0095 to 0.24. The two macroscopic models developed in this study predict unsteady velocity profiles which are in moderately good agreement with the experiments in their respective frequency regimes, and a previously developed quasi-steady model is found to predict experimental velocity profiles well in both the quasisteady and the frozen eddy viscosity frequency regimes. The effect of flow pulsations on the dissipation of turbulence energy in the vicinity of the wall was measured in the lower transition frequency regime. The long-time averaged dissipation was observed to be unchanged from the steady flow dissipation, within the accuracy of the experiment. A theoretical model of the periodic viscous sublayer was also developed and applied to pulsating flow in a tube, in order to investigate the effects of flow pulsations on the rate of production of turbulence in the region of the wall. The periodic viscous sublayer model predicts sublayer growth periods in steady flow which agree with the published experimental data. When the model is applied to pulsating flow, the response of the sublayer growth period falls into three frequency regimes, the parameters of which are in approximate agreement with the frequency regimes which are defined on the basis of macroscopic flow behavior. The sublayer renewal cycle exhibits quasi-steady flow behavior when the sublayer growth period is much less than the pulsation period, transition behavior when these two periods are approximately equal, and frozen eddy viscosity behavior when the sublayer period is much longer than the pulsation period. The effect of the sublayer growth and renewal cycle on the level of turbulence was investigated by two methods. The velocity fluctuations seen by a point velocity probe located close to the wall were predicted from the model in one method and the rate of turbulence production was estimated from the frequency of sublayer renewal events in the other.
In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency generation assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency generation assets placed prior to an extreme event.
In this paper we study a problem of hurricane emergency preparedness via placement of emergency generation assets prior to its strike. We present a two-stage stochastic model for choosing locations and quantities of emergency storage to help support the power grid through a hurricane event. The expectation of losses in our two-stage model is estimated using the sample average approximation. We construct damage scenarios for sample average approximation using WIND Toolkit meteorological data and fragility curves of various electric grid components. We demonstrate the efficacy of our two-stage planning model by simulating operations during Hurricane Dolly on the 2000-bus transmission test system. Our model, coupled with our scenario selection strategy, is effective at mitigating loss of load when compared to a model without emergency generation assets placed prior to an extreme event.
The extinction of marine phyto-and zoo-plankton across the K-T boundary has been well documented. Such an event may have resulted in decreased photosynthetic fixation of carbon in surface waters and a collapse of the food chain in the marine biosphere. Because the vertical and horizontal distribution of the carbon isotopic composition of total dissolved carton (TDC) in the modern ocean is controlled by the transfer of organic carbon from the surface to deep reservoirs, it follows that a major disruption of the marine biosphere would have had a major effect on the distribution of carbon isotopes in the ocean. Negative carbon isotope excursions have been identified at many marine K-T boundary sequences worldwide and are interpreted as a signal of decreased oceanic primary productivity. However, the magnitude, duration and consequences of this productivity crisis have been poorly constrained. On the basis of planktonic and benthic calcareous microfossil carbon isotope and other geochemical data from DSDP Site 577 located on the Shatsky Rise in the north-central Pacific, as well as other sites, researchers have been able to provide a reasonable estimate of the duration and magnitude of this event.
The paper describes a numerical study of a potential accident scenario of the space shuttle, operating at the same flight conditions as flight 51L, the Challenger accident. The interest in performing this simulation is derived by evidence that indicates that the event itself did not exert large enough blast loading on the shuttle to break it apart. Rather, the quasi-steady aerodynamic loading on the damaged, unbalance vehicle caused the break-up. Despite the enormous explosive potential of the shuttle total fuel load (both liquid and solid), the post accident explosives working group estimated the maximum energy involvement to be equivalent to about five hundreds of pounds of TNT. This understanding motivated the simulation described here. To err on the conservative side, we modeled the event as an explosion, and used the maximum energy estimate. We modeled the transient detonation of a 500 lbs spherical charge of TNT, placed at the main engine, and the resulting blast wave propagation about the complete stack. Tracking of peak pressures and impulses at hundreds of locations on the vehicle surface indicate that the blast load was insufficient to break the vehicle, hence demonstrating likely crew survivability through such an event.
Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.
Inelastic beam-gas collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), within a few hundred metres of the ATLAS experiment, are known to give the dominant contribution to beam backgrounds. These are monitored by ATLAS with a dedicated Beam Conditions Monitor (BCM) and with the rate of fake jets in the calorimeters. These two methods are complementary since the BCM probes backgrounds just around the beam pipe while fake jets are observed at radii of up to several metres. In order to quantify the correlation between the residual gas density in the LHC beam vacuum and the experimental backgrounds recorded by ATLAS, several dedicated tests were performed during LHC Run 2. Local pressure bumps, with a gas density several orders of magnitude higher than during normal operation, were introduced at different locations. The changes of beam-related backgrounds, seen in ATLAS, are correlated with the local pressure variation. In addition the rates of beam-gas events are estimated from the pressure measurements and pressure bump profiles obtained from calculations. Using these rates, the efficiency of the ATLAS beam background monitors to detect beam-gas events is derived as a function of distance from the interaction point. These efficiencies and characteristic distributions of fake jets from the beam backgrounds are found to be in good agreement with results of beam-gas simulations performed with theFluka Monte Carlo programme.
SUMMARY We conduct a thorough analysis of seismic and acoustic data purported to be from the so-called ‘interstellar meteor’ which entered the Earth’s atmosphere off the coast of Papua New Guinea on 2014 January 08. Previous work had suggested that this meteor may have been caused by an alien spacecraft burning up in the atmosphere. We conclude that both previously reported seismic signals are spurious—one has characteristics suggesting a local vehicular-traffic-based origin; whilst the other is statistically indistinguishable from the background noise. As such, previously reported localizations based on this data are unreliable. Analysis of acoustic data provides a best-fitting location estimate which is very far ($\sim$170 km) from the reported fireball location. Accordingly, we conclude that material recovered from the seafloor and purported to be from this event is almost certainly unrelated to it, and is likely of more mundane (non-interstellar) origin.
Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period August 25-29, 2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared to the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed Drop Size Distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value of α=0.015 and β=0.600 and β=0.625 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.
Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on 25 August 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on 29 August 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 in. (150 cm) of rain over a 5-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar dataset to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period 25–29 August2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared with the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed drop size distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value ofa50.015 andb50.600 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.