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Influence of Precipitation Forcing Uncertainty on Hydrological Simulations with the NASA South Asia Land Data Assimilation System

Accurate meteorological estimates are critical for process-based hydrological simulationand prediction. This presents a significant challenge in mountainous Asia where in situmeteorological stations are limited and major river basins cross international borders. In thiscontext, remotely sensed and model-derived meteorological estimates are often necessary inputsfor distributed hydrological analysis. However, these datasets are difficult to evaluate on accountof limited access to ground data. In this case, the implications of uncertainty associated withprecipitation forcing for hydrological simulations is explored by driving the South Asia Land DataAssimilation System (South Asia LDAS) using a range of meteorological forcing products.MERRA2, GDAS, and CHIRPS produce a wide range of estimates for rainfall, which causes awidespread simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration. A combination of satellite-derived andlimited in situ data are applied to evaluate model simulations and, by extension, to constrain theestimates of precipitation. The results show that available gridded precipitation estimates based onin situ data may systematically underestimate precipitation in mountainous regions and thatperformance of gridded satellite-derived or modeled precipitation estimates varies systematicallyacross the region. Since no station-based data or product including station data is satisfactoryeverywhere, our results suggest that the evaluation of the hydrological simulation of streamflowand ET can be used as an indirect evaluation of precipitation forcing based on ground-basedproducts or in-situ data. South Asia LDAS produces reasonable evapotranspiration and streamflowwhen forced with appropriate meteorological forcing and the choice of meteorological forcingshould be made based on the geographical location as well as on the purpose of the simulations.

South Asia land data assimilation system (South As↗

Precipitation over the U.S. Coastal Land/Water Using Gauge-Corrected Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System and Three Satellite Products

The weather and climate over the coastal regions have received increasing attention because of substantial population growth, the rising sea level, and extreme weather. Satellite remote sensing provides global precipitation estimates (including coastal land/ocean). While these datasets have been extensively evaluated over land, they have rarely been assessed over coastal ocean. As precipitation radars cover both coastal land and ocean, we used the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) gauge-corrected precipitation product from 2018 to 2020 to evaluate three widely used satellite-based precipitation products over the U.S. coastal land versus the ocean (and the water over the Great Lakes). These products included the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH). The MRMS data showed a precipitation climatology difference between the coastal land and the ocean that was higher in the winter and lower in the summer and autumn. IMERG and CMORPH performed best over land and water, respectively, while PERSIANN was the most consistent in its performance over land versus water. Heavy precipitation was overestimated by the three products, with larger overestimates over water than over land. These results were not affected by the MRMS uncertainties due to the gauge correction or by the use of different versions.

coastal precipitation↗

Summarizing Multiple Aspects of Triple Collocation Analysis in a Single Diagram

With the ongoing expansion of global observation networks, it is expected that we shall routinely analyze records of geophysical variables such as temperature from multiple collocated instruments. Validating datasets in this situation is not a trivial task because every observing system has its own bias and noise. Triple collocation is a general statistical framework to estimate the error characteristics in three or more observational-based datasets. In a triple colocation analysis, several metrics are routinely reported but traditional multiple-panel plots are not the most effective way to display information. A new formula of error variance is derived for connecting the key terms in the triple collocation theory. A diagram based on this formula is devised to facilitate triple collocation analysis of any data from observations, as illustrated using three aerosol optical depth datasets from the recent Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). An observational-based skill score is also derived to evaluate the quality of three datasets by taking into account both error variance and correlation coefficient. Several applications are discussed and sample plotting routines are provided.

triple collocation↗

Evaluating the Uncertainty of Terrestrial Water Budget Components over High Mountain Asia

This study explores the uncertainties in terrestrial water budget estimation over High Mountain Asia (HMA) using a suite of uncoupled land surface model (LSM) simulations. The uncertainty in the water balance components of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and terrestrial water storage (TWS) is significantly impacted by the uncertainty in the driving meteorology, with precipitation being the most important boundary condition. Ten gridded precipitation datasets along with a mix of model-, satellite-, and gauge-based products, are evaluated first to assess their suitability for LSM simulations over HMA. The datasets are evaluated by quantifying the systematic and random errors of these products as well as the temporal consistency of their trends. Though the broader spatial patterns of precipitation are generally well captured by the datasets, they differ significantly in their means and trends. In general, precipitation datasets that incorporate information from gauges are found to have higher accuracy with low Root Mean Square Errors and high correlation coefficient values. An ensemble of LSM simulations with selected subset of precipitation products is then used to produce the mean annual fluxes and their uncertainty over HMA in P, ET, and R to be 2.11 ± 0.45, 1.26 ± 0.11, and 0.85 ± 0.36 mm per day, respectively. The mean annual estimates of the surface mass (water) balance components from this model ensemble are comparable to global estimates from prior studies. However, the uncertainty/spread of P, ET, and R is significantly larger than the corresponding estimates from global studies. A comparison of ET, snow cover fraction, and changes in TWS estimates against remote sensing-based references confirms the significant role of the input meteorology in influencing the water budget characterization over HMA and points to the need for improving meteorological inputs.

Terrestrial water budget↗

The Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD)

Low clouds continue to contribute greatly to the uncertainty in cloud feedback estimates. Depending on whether a region is dominated by cumulus (Cu) or stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, the interannual low-cloud feedback is somewhat different in both spaceborne and large-eddy simulation studies. Therefore, simulating the correct amount and variation of the Cu and Sc cloud distributions could be crucial to predict future cloud feedbacks. Here we document spatial distributions and profiles of Sc and Cu clouds derived from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) and CloudSat measurements. For this purpose, we create a new dataset called the Cumulus And Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD), which identifies Sc, broken Sc, Cu under Sc, Cu with stratiform outflow and Cu. To separate the Cu from Sc, we design an original method based on the cloud height, horizontal extent, vertical variability and horizontal continuity, which is separately applied to both CALIPSO and combined CloudSat–CALIPSO observations. First, the choice of parameters used in the discrimination algorithm is investigated and validated in selected Cu, Sc and Sc–Cu transition case studies. Then, the global statistics are compared against those from existing passive- and active-sensor satellite observations. Our results indicate that the cloud optical thickness – as used in passive-sensor observations – is not a sufficient parameter to discriminate Cu from Sc clouds, in agreement with previous literature. Using clustering-derived datasets shows better results although one cannot completely separate cloud types with such an approach. On the contrary, classifying Cu and Sc clouds and the transition between them based on their geometrical shape and spatial heterogeneity leads to spatial distributions consistent with prior knowledge of these clouds, from ground-based, ship-based and field campaigns. Furthermore, we show that our method improves existing Sc–Cu classifications by using additional information on cloud height and vertical cloud fraction variation. Finally, the CASCCAD datasets provide a basis to evaluate shallow convection and stratocumulus clouds on a global scale in climate models and potentially improve our understanding of low-level cloud feedbacks. The CASCCAD dataset (Cesana, 2019, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2667637) is available on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) website at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/clouds/casccad/ (last access: 5 November 2019) and on the zenodo website at https://zenodo.org/record/2667637 (last access: 5 November 2019).

Cesana, Gregory V.↗

VESIcal: A Critical Approach to Volatile Solubility Modelling Using the Open-Source Engine Vesical

Accurate models of H(2)O and CO(2) solubility in silicate melts are vital for understanding volcanic plumbing systems. These models are used to estimate the depths of magma storage regions from melt inclusion volatile contents, investigate the role of volatile exsolution as a driver of volcanic eruptions, and track the degassing path followed by a magma ascending to the surface. However, despite the large increase in the number of experimental constraints over the last two decades, many recent studies still utilize an earlier generation of models which were calibrated on experimental datasets with restricted compositional ranges. This may be because many of the available tools for more recent models require large numbers of input parameters to be hand-typed (e.g., temperature, concentrations of H(2)O, CO(2), and 8–14 oxides), making them difficult to implement on large datasets. Here, we use a new open-source Python3 tool, VESIcal, to critically evaluate the behaviors and sensitivities of different solubility models for a range of melt compositions. Using literature datasets of andesitic-dacitic experimental products and melt inclusions as case studies, we illustrate the importance of evaluating the calibration dataset of each model. Finally, we highlight the limitations of particular data presentation methods, such as isobar diagrams, and provide suggestions for alternatives, and best practices regarding the presentation and archiving of data. This review will aid the selection of the most applicable solubility model for different melt compositions, and identifies areas where additional experimental constraints on volatile solubility are required.

magma↗

Evaluating a Priori Ozone Profile Information Used in TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) Tropospheric Ozone Retrievals

A primary objective for TOLNet is the evaluation and validation of space-based tropospheric O3 retrievals from future systems such as the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite. This study is designed to evaluate the tropopause-based O3 climatology (TB-Clim) dataset which will be used as the a priori profile information in TEMPO O3 retrievals. This study also evaluates model simulated O3 profiles, which could potentially serve as a priori O3 profile information in TEMPO retrievals, from near-real-time (NRT) data assimilation model products (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2)) and full chemical transport model (CTM), GEOS-Chem, simulations. The TB-Clim dataset and model products are evaluated with surface (0-2 km) and tropospheric (0-10 km) TOLNet observations to demonstrate the accuracy of the suggested a priori dataset and information which could potentially be used in TEMPO O3 algorithms. This study also presents the impact of individual a priori profile sources on the accuracy of theoretical TEMPO O3 retrievals in the troposphere and at the surface. Preliminary results indicate that while the TB-Clim climatological dataset can replicate seasonally-averaged tropospheric O3 profiles observed by TOLNet, model-simulated profiles from a full CTM (GEOS-Chem is used as a proxy for CTM O3 predictions) resulted in more accurate tropospheric and surface-level O3 retrievals from TEMPO when compared to hourly (diurnal cycle evaluation) and daily-averaged (daily variability evaluation) TOLNet observations. Furthermore, it was determined that when large daily-averaged surface O3 mixing ratios are observed (65 ppb), which are important for air quality purposes, TEMPO retrieval values at the surface display higher correlations and less bias when applying CTM a priori profile information compared to all other data products. The primary reason for this is that CTM predictions better capture the spatio-temporal variability of the vertical profiles of observed tropospheric O3 compared to the TB-Clim dataset and other NRT data assimilation models evaluated during this study.

Pollution↗

Multi-Model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements.We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multimodel mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mg(N)m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multimodel deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

Flood Monitoring Using Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Data: A Test Case Over Bangladesh

Monitoring floods is a major issue in water resources management and risk mitigation, especially in the Global South. Optical and radar observations, even providing a fine spatial resolution, are still limited by cloud cover interaction or insufficient temporal resolution. On the other hand, passive microwave (PMW) sensors collect information on a daily frequency with minor cloud cover interaction, but they have been historically limited in terms of spatial resolution. Here, we evaluate the capability of an enhanced spatial resolution PMW dataset (3.125 km) in monitoring spatio-temporal evolution of flood events, focusing on a major flood event that occurred in October 2005 in Bangladesh. We apply an algorithm aimed to remove the seasonal variability of surface temperature from the PMW timeseries, exploiting the difference in emissivity between dry and water-covered pixels. We assess the capability of the algorithm in capturing flood evolution and extension through the comparison with quantities obtained from optical data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and water level measurements. We also compare the enhanced product with the historical coarser resolution dataset by means of a variogram-based analysis to evaluate the improvements in terms of spatial representation. Finally, we evaluate the possibility to extract the water fraction within a single pixel by using an Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer—Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) emissivity dataset and compare the estimates with MODIS-derived water fractions. Our results show that the enhanced PMW product outperforms the coarser one when compared to flood mapped from optical data based on information content, indicating that it is possible to integrate such a product into the mapping of floods at a global scale on a daily basis.

flood detection↗

Importance of a Priori Vertical Ozone Profiles for TEMPO Air Quality Retrievals

Ozone (O3) is a toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality. Typically, monitoring of surface air quality and O3 mixing ratios is conducted using in situ measurement networks. This is partially due to high-quality information related to air quality being limited from space-borne platforms due to coarse spatial resolution, limited temporal frequency, and minimal sensitivity to lower tropospheric and surface-level O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite is designed to address the limitations of current space-based platforms and to improve our ability to monitor North American air quality. TEMPO will provide hourly data of total column and vertical profiles of O3 with high spatial resolution to be used as a near-real-time air quality product. TEMPO O3 retrievals will apply the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory profile algorithm developed based on work from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment), GOME-2, and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument). This algorithm is suggested to use a priori O3 profile information from a climatological data-base developed from long-term ozone-sonde measurements (tropopause-based (TB-Clim) O3 climatology). This study evaluates the TB-Clim dataset and model simulated O3 profiles, which could potentially serve as a priori O3 profile information in TEMPO retrievals, from near-real-time data assimilation model products (NASA GMAO's (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) operational GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5) FP (Forecast Products) model and reanalysis data from MERRA2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2)) and a full chemical transport model (CTM), GEOS-Chem. In this study, vertical profile products are evaluated with surface (0-2 kilometers) and tropospheric (0-10 kilometers) TOLNet (Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network) observations and the theoretical impact of individual a priori profile sources on the accuracy of TEMPO O3 retrievals in the troposphere and at the surface are presented. Results indicate that while the TB-Clim climatological dataset can replicate seasonally-averaged tropospheric O3 profiles, model-simulated profiles from a full CTM resulted in more accurate tropospheric and surface-level O3 retrievals from TEMPO when compared to hourly and daily-averaged TOLNet observations. Furthermore, it is shown that when large surface O3 mixing ratios are observed, TEMPO retrieval values at the surface are most accurate when applying CTM a priori profile information compared to all other data products.

Priori↗

Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition Program On-ramp #2 Airbus U.S. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Evaluation Report

In 2017, NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD) launched the Private-Sector Small Constellation Satellite Data Product Pilot, now referred to as the Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) program. The objective of CSDA is to identify, evaluate, and acquire commercial remote sensing data that support NASA’s Earth science research and application activities. The Pilot successfully concluded in early 2020, when CSDA transitioned into a sustained program with on-ramping opportunities for new vendors as the industry emerges with new candidates and capabilities. In October 2019, a Request for Information (RFI) seeking capability statements from parties interested in providing data from spaceborne platforms was released for the CSDA on-ramp #2 evaluations. To be responsive to the RFI, the commercial satellite constellations had to consist of three or more operating spacecraft actively collecting data in a non-geostationary orbit with full latitudinal coverage and be U.S. companies. Two vendors responded to the RFI and were evaluated by a committee composed of NASA ESD leadership, program managers, and scientists. Both vendors satisfied the RFI requirements and were asked to respond to a Request for Proposal (RFP). After review of the proposals, NASA entered into a Blanket Purchase Agreement (BPA) with Airbus Defense and Space GEO, Inc. (Airbus) U.S. in September 2021 and with BlackSky Geospatial Solutions, Inc. (BlackSky) in November 2021. In this report, CSDA provides an evaluation of the usefulness of data provided by the Airbus U.S. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite constellation, consisting of TerraSAR-X (launched in 2007), TanDEM-X (launched in 2010), and PAZ (launched in 2018), for advancing NASA’s Earth system science research and applications. The evaluation of the BlackSky commercial data will be provided in a separate report. To conduct the Airbus evaluation, NASA’s ESD augmented 13 existing research projects that could potentially benefit from, and had the expertise to evaluate, the commercial data being considered for longer-term purchase. Investigators from NASA’s Research and Analysis Program science focus areas and from NASA’s Applied Sciences Program elements participated in the evaluation. A summary of the research areas evaluated by the Principal Investigator (PI) teams is presented in Figure 3. CSDA also funded a dedicated activity to evaluate the satellite data quality (calibration and geolocation) independently by assessing the accuracy of data from Airbus. Evaluation activities were carried out by the selected PIs from December 7, 2022, to December 7, 2023. Delivery of datasets requested by the researchers began in January 2023. The vendors were evaluated on the accessibility of data, accuracy and completeness of metadata, and promptness and quality of user support services. Datasets purchased during the evaluation have been archived by NASA and will be made available to current and future government-funded researchers in accordance with the End User License Agreement (EULA). This synthesis report distills and integrates the findings of research reports commissioned by NASA for the Airbus evaluation. This report also includes recommendations that inform the way ahead for the program. The scientific results from the evaluations demonstrated that the commercial data from Airbus were able to advance NASA research and applications. However, the PIs encountered limitations that diminished the usefulness of the data due to the amount of effort that was required to access, preprocess, and analyze these data. One significant issue encountered was the limited spatial and temporal coverage of the data in the Airbus archive that could be used to conduct time series analyses or assessments over large spatial scales. Overall, however, the utility and the quality of the evaluated data outweighed the difficulties encountered, and NASA has concluded that the Airbus SAR data would complement NASA’s existing Earth observation capabilities and Airbus U.S. would qualify to participate in the sustained phase of the program.

Batuhan Osmanoglu↗

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): A Near-Real-Time, Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Dataset

This study presents the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR-Now) near-real-time precipitation dataset. This dataset provides hourly, quasi-global, infrared-based precipitation estimates at 0.04° × 0.04° spatial resolution with a short latency (15–60 min). It is intended to supersede the PERSIANN–Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) dataset previously produced as the near-real-time product of the PERSIANN family. We first provide a brief description of the algorithm’s fundamentals and the input data used for deriving precipitation estimates. Second, we provide an extensive evaluation of the PDIR-Now dataset over annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily scales. Last, the article presents information on the dissemination of the dataset through the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) web-based interfaces. The evaluation, conducted over the period 2017–18, demonstrates the utility of PDIR-Now and its improvement over PERSIANN-CCS at all temporal scales. Specifically, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of rain/no-rain days as demonstrated by a critical success index (CSI) of 0.53 compared to 0.47 of PERSIANN-CCS. In addition, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of seasonal and diurnal cycles of precipitation as well as regional precipitation patterns erroneously estimated by PERSIANN-CCS. Finally, an evaluation is carried out to examine the performance of PDIR-Now in capturing two extreme events, Hurricane Harvey and a cluster of summer thunderstorms that occurred over the Netherlands, where it is shown that PDIR-Now adequately represents spatial precipitation patterns as well as subdaily precipitation rates with a correlation coefficient (CORR) of 0.64 for Hurricane Harvey and 0.76 for the Netherlands thunderstorms.

Rainfall↗

Thermal Infrared Dust Optical Depth and Coarse-Mode Effective Diameter Over Oceans Retrieved From Collocated MODIS and CALIOP Observations

In this study, we developed a novel algorithm based on the collocated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared (TIR) observations and dust vertical profiles from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) to simultaneously retrieve dust aerosol optical depth at 10 µm (DAOD10μm) and the coarse-mode dust effective diameter (Deff) over global oceans. The accuracy of the Deff retrieval is assessed by comparing the dust lognormal volume particle size distribution (PSD) corresponding to retrieved Deff with the in-situ measured dust PSDs from the AER-D, SAMUM-2 and SALTRACE field campaigns through case studies. The new DAOD10μm retrievals were evaluated first through comparisons with the collocated DAOD10.6μm retrieved from the combined Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR) and CALIOP observations from our previous study (Zheng et al. 2022). The pixel-to-pixel comparison of the two DAOD retrievals indicates a good agreement (R~0.7) and a significant reduction of (~50%) retrieval uncertainties largely thanks to the better constraint on dust size. In a climatological comparison, the seasonal and regional (5°×2°) mean DAOD10um retrievals based on our combined MODIS and CALIOP method are in good agreement with the two independent Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) products over three dust transport regions (i.e., North Atlantic (NA; R = 0.9), Indian Ocean (IO; R = 0.8) and North Pacific (NP; R = 0.7)). Using the new retrievals from 2013 to 2017, we performed a climatological analysis of coarse mode dust Deff over global oceans. We found that dust Deff over IO and NP are up to 20% smaller than that over NA. Over NA in summer, we found a ~50% reduction of the number of retrievals with Deff > 5 μm from 15°W to 35°W and a stable trend of Deff average at 4.4 μm from 35°W throughout the Caribbean Sea (90°W). Over NP in spring, only ~5% of retrieved pixels with Deff > 5 μm are found from 150°E to 180°, while the mean Deff remains stable at 4.0 μm throughout eastern NP. To our best knowledge, this study is the first to retrieve both DAOD and coarse-mode dust particle size over global oceans for multiple years. This retrieval dataset provides insightful information for evaluating dust long-wave radiative effects and coarse mode dust particle size in models.

dust optical depth↗

Standardization Process for Space Radiation Models Used for Space System Design

The space system design community has three concerns related to models of the radiation belts and plasma: 1) AP-8 and AE-8 models are not adequate for modern applications; 2) Data that have become available since the creation of AP-8 and AE-8 are not being fully exploited for modeling purposes; 3) When new models are produced, there is no authorizing organization identified to evaluate the models or their datasets for accuracy and robustness. This viewgraph presentation provided an overview of the roadmap adopted by the Working Group Meeting on New Standard Radiation Belt and Space Plasma Models.

Barth, Janet↗

Assessment of Turbulent Shock-Boundary Layer Interaction Computations Using the OVERFLOW Code

The performance of two popular turbulence models, the Spalart-Allmaras model and Menter s SST model, and one relatively new model, Olsen & Coakley s Lag model, are evaluated using the OVERFLOWcode. Turbulent shock-boundary layer interaction predictions are evaluated with three different experimental datasets: a series of 2D compression ramps at Mach 2.87, a series of 2D compression ramps at Mach 2.94, and an axisymmetric coneflare at Mach 11. The experimental datasets include flows with no separation, moderate separation, and significant separation, and use several different experimental measurement techniques (including laser doppler velocimetry (LDV), pitot-probe measurement, inclined hot-wire probe measurement, preston tube skin friction measurement, and surface pressure measurement). Additionally, the OVERFLOW solutions are compared to the solutions of a second CFD code, DPLR. The predictions for weak shock-boundary layer interactions are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data. For strong shock-boundary layer interactions, all of the turbulence models overpredict the separation size and fail to predict the correct skin friction recovery distribution. In most cases, surface pressure predictions show too much upstream influence, however including the tunnel side-wall boundary layers in the computation improves the separation predictions.

Oliver, A. B.↗

Satellite Monitoring of Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Bloom Frequency in Recreational Waters and Drinking Water Sources

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) cause extensive problems in lakes worldwide, including human and ecological health risks, anoxia and sh kills, and taste and odor problems. CyanoHABs are a particular concern in both recreational waters and drinking water sources because of their dense biomass and the risk of exposure to toxins. Successful cyanoHAB assessment using satellites may provide an indicator for human and ecological health protection. In this study, methods were developed to assess the utility of satellite technology for detecting cyanoHAB frequency of occurrence at locations of potential management interest. The European Space Agency's MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) was evaluated to prepare for the equivalent series of Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Imagers (OLCI) launched in 2016 as part of the Copernicus program. Based on the 2012 National Lakes Assessment site evaluation guidelines and National Hydrography Dataset, the continental United States contains 275,897 lakes and reservoirs greater than 1 ha in area. Results from this study show that 5.6% of waterbodies were resolvable by satellites with 300 m single-pixel resolution and 0.7% of waterbodies were resolvable when a three by three pixel (3 x 3-pixel) array was applied based on minimum Euclidian distance from shore. Satellite data were spatially joined to U.S. public water surface intake (PWSI) locations, where single-pixel resolution resolved 57% of the PWSI locations and a 3 x 3-pixel array resolved 33% of the PWSI locations. Recreational and drinking water sources in Florida and Ohio were ranked from 2008 through 2011 by cyanoHAB frequency above the World Health Organizations (WHO) high threshold for risk of 100,000 cells m/L. The ranking identified waterbodies with values above the WHO high threshold, where Lake Apopka, FL (99.1%) and Grand Lake St. Marys, OH (83%) had the highest observed bloom frequencies per region. The method presented here may indicate locations with high exposure to cyanoHABs and therefore can be used to assist in prioritizing management resources and actions for recreational and drinking water sources.

Cyanobacteria↗

Improving Surface Soil Moisture Estimates in West Africa Through GRACE Data Assimilation

Recent annual trends of precipitation and terrestrial water storage (TWS) in West Africa have been increasing over the past decade. Despite a significant impact of soil moisture on the TWS in West Africa, there is little research on the recent spatial and temporal behaviors of surface soil moisture (SSM) along with the hydrological trends and variability in West Africa. In this study, we assimilate TWS estimates from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission into the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) and evaluate its impacts on SSM simulations for the years, 2002–2017. The evaluation is performed using reference datasets: the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) in situ soil moisture observations, three currently available microwave satellite SSM observations from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellites and also the triple collocation analysis (TCA). Overall, modeled SSM shows good agreement with the reference datasets in terms of the anomaly SSM correlations. However, both modeled and ASCAT SSM are limited in their representation of the drying rates, as observed by ground observations, SMOS and SMAP estimates. Further, GRACE data assimilation results in improved SSM simulations in the humid regions with large annual TWS variability. This study demonstrates the utility of land data assimilation to inform hydrological conditions in West Africa, where soil moisture monitoring is necessary for water resource and livestock management.

West Africa↗