SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the Statistical properties of Single Event Effects (SEE) rate calculations. The goal of SEE rate calculation is to bound the SEE rate, though the question is by how much. The presentation covers: (1) Understanding errors on SEE cross sections, (2) Methodology: Maximum Likelihood and confidence Contours, (3) Tests with Simulated data and (4) Applications.
Concepts involved in determining the performance of coded digital communications systems are introduced. The basic concepts of convolutional encoding and decoding are summarized, and hardware implementations of sequential and maximum likelihood decoders are described briefly. Results of parametric studies of the Viterbi decoding algorithm are summarized. Bit error probability is chosen as the measure of performance and is calculated, by using digital computer simulations, for various encoder and decoder parameters. Results are presented for code rates of one-half and one-third, for constraint lengths of 4 to 8, for both hard-decision and soft-decision bit detectors, and for several important systematic and nonsystematic codes. The effect of decoder block length on bit error rate also is considered, so that a more complete estimate of the relationship between performance and decoder complexity can be made.
Knowledge of the aeronomic production of odd hydrogen in the dissociation of water vapor is limited by uncertainties in the penetration of solar irradiance in the Schumann-Runge bands of O2 and by incomplete information concerning the products of photolysis at Lyman alpha. Consideration of all error sources involved in computing the H2O dissociation rate in the wavelength region 175-200 nm leads to an estimated uncertainty of plus or minus 35% at an altitude of 90 km for an overhead sun. The uncertainty increases with decreasing altitude such that the true dissociation rate at 60 km for an overhead sun lies between 0.45 and 1.55 times the results computed using the best input parameters currently available. Calculations of the H2O dissociation rate by Lyman alpha should include the variation in O2 opacity across the solar line width. Neglect of this can lead to errors as large as 50% at altitudes where the process is the major source of odd hydrogen.
The measurement of rotational temperature by the electron-beam fluorescence technique is investigated for temperatures between 78 K and 300 K by using the 0-0 band of the nitrogen first negative system. Existing methods for calculating the rotational temperature from electron-beam spectra result in values which are higher than the true temperature and the error increases with density and electron-beam current. The errors are believed to arise through neglect of the effects of secondary electrons. Excitation by low-energy secondary electrons can increase the population of the sparsely populated rotational ground states at the expense of the abundantly populated states. This secondary excitation is proposed as the cause of the error in the calculated rotational temperature and a theoretical study determines that the density and beam current govern the excitation rate. Rotational-temperature measurements are made in a flowing stream of nitrogen at a known temperature for a range of densities and beam currents.
The accuracy of the vortex-blob method was tested by simulating a free-shear-layer instability, Kirchhoff's elliptical vortex, and a circular vortex. The main numerical parameters in the vortex-blob method are the density of the vortices, and the distribution of vorticity within each vortex core. The growth rate of a periodic unstable mode of the shear layer was calculated numerically and compared with the exact result. The error is only a few percent for about 10 rows of vortex blobs. The error is reduced by decreasing the spacing between vortices and, correspondingly, the core size. In the simulation of the motion of the elliptical vortex, the rotation of the boundary, without change of shape, and the circular particle paths of the vortical fluid were well simulated. For the circular vortex, optimum sets of parameters were obtained by comparing them with the exact velocity. The results are consistent with convergence theories of the vortex-blob method. In particular, second-order convergence is observed with a Gaussian core from velocity calculation.
The error-detecting capabilities of the shortened Hamming codes adopted for error detection in IEEE Standard 802.3 are investigated. These codes are also used for error detection in the data link layer of the Ethernet, a local area network. The weight distributions for various code lengths are calculated to obtain the probability of undetectable error and that of detectable error for a binary symmetric channel with bit-error rate between 0.00001 and 1/2.
The Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected in southern California from 1986 to 1989 indicate considerable strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley. Displacements are computed at 29 stations in and near the valley from 1986 to 1988, and at 11 sites from 1988 to 1989. The earlier measurements indicate 5.9 +/- 1.0 cm/yr right-lateral differential velocity across the valley, although the data are heavily influenced by the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence. Some measurements, especially the east-trending displacements, are suspects for large errors. The 1988 to 1989 GPS displacements are best modeled by 5.2 +/- 0.9 cm/yr of valley crossing deformation, but rates calculated from conventional geodetic measurements (3.4 to 4.3 cm/yr) fit the data nearly as well. There is evidence from GPS and Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations that the present slip rate along the southern San Andreas fault is smaller than the long-term geologic estimate, suggesting a lower earthquake potential than is currently assumed. Correspondingly, a higher earthquake potential is indicated for the San Jacinto fault. The Imperial Valley GPS sites form part of a 183 station network in southern California and northern Baja California, which spans a cross-section of the North American-Pacific plate boundary.
The Global Positioning System (GPS) data collected in southern California from 1986 to 1989 indicate considerable strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley. Displacements are computed at 29 stations in and near the valley from 1986 to 1988, and at 11 sites from 1988 to 1989. The earlier measurements indicate 5.9 =/- 1.0 cm/yr right-lateral differential velocity across the valley, although the data are heavily influenced by the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence. Some measurements, especially the east-trending displacements, are suspects for large errors. The 1988 to 1989 GPS displacements are best modeled by 5.2 =/- 0.9 cm/yr of valley crossing deformation, but rates calculated from conventional geodetic measurements (3.4 to 4.3 cm/yr) fit the data nearly as well. There is evidence from GPS and Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations that the present slip rate along the southern San Andreas fault is smaller than the long-term geologic estimate, suggesting a lower earthquake potential than is currently assumed. Correspondingly, a higher earthquake potential is indicated for the San Jacinto fault. The Imperial Valley GPS sites form part of a 183 station network in southern California and northern Baja California, which spans a cross-section of the North American-Pacific plate boundary.
A three-parameter scaling approximation is developed in conjunction with random models for the computation of transmittance along nonhomogeneous atmospheres. In addition to the scaled path length and pressure, a third parameter is introduced to account for intermediate absorption. With reference to the results derived from line-by-line calculations, the accuracy of this scaling approximation is assessed in different atmospheric conditions. For the O3 9.6-micron band where the Curtis-Godson and other conventional scaling methods usually produce large errors, the present model can achieve relative accuracies within about 1 percent in transmittance and the downward surface flux. Accuracy of about 0.15 K/d can be obtained in cooling rate calculations. The present three-parameter approximation is well suited for radiative transfer parameterizations in which the demand for high accuracy is required in the transmittance and flux calculations.
BACKGROUND: The dynamic feasibility [1,2] criterion, that the subject’s Center of Pressure (COP) be located within the Base of Support (BOS) which outlines the feet, has aided in assessing the stability of human motion recorded on earth while performing the recorded tasks in lunar gravity or as countermeasures exercises on a vibration isolation and stabilization system in microgravity. The convex hull of the BOS on the platform under the subject’s feet was estimated using virtual markers on the feet of the scaled subject model. The COP was calculated using the ground reaction forces and moments determined from motion capture data with biomechanical modeling tools [3]. Occasionally, large-amplitude oscillatory spikes or “artifacts” were observed in the subject’s linear and angular momentum derivatives, affecting some COP data derived from motion capture. The purpose of this investigation was to assess and improve the accuracy of model scaling and BOS estimation as well as to determine the efficacy of model adjustments in mitigating artifacts influencing motion capture-derived ground reaction force and COP results. METHODS: To aid evaluation of proposed process and model updates, motion capture data were collected for two subjects during unit test and range of motion trials, lunar tasks, and countermeasures exercise motions. Markers were added to the full body Plug-in Gait marker set [4] during data collection. New markers were placed on the front, back, sides, and top of the head to improve scaling using distances between marker pairs. Medial elbow markers were added to stabilize the upper arm during OpenSim Inverse Kinematics (IK) [5]. Finally, markers were added on the outer edge of the heels and on the outside edges of the first and last toes on each foot. These additional foot markers were made available to test new automated foot scaling techniques and to calculate the error between the subject’s estimated and recorded BOS. The modified unscaled OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [6,7] was adjusted using some previously investigated techniques [8] to mitigate rapid shifts in joint angles occurring during IK, as these were found to cause the spike artifacts observed in subsequent stages of analysis. Since OpenSim models use Euler angles and rotation sequences, the arm axes of rotation were adjusted, and the pelvis order of rotation was changed to minimize the likelihood of encountering “gimbal lock” during common human motion. The model clavicle, arm, elbow, wrist, pelvis, and ankle angle limits were adjusted to better accommodate the full human range of motion seen in exercise and lunar data. The shoulder joint center was calculated using a “pivoting” algorithm [9], and both shoulder joint center and upper arm markers were included during IK to provide additional shoulder stability on a case-by-case basis. The quality of IK results was assessed by three criteria: minimizing error between recorded motion capture markers and model markers, checking for reasonable rates of change in joint angles between fames (i.e., no IK artifacts), and ensuring the absence of spikes in the inertial forces and angular momentum derivatives calculated using a custom OpenSim plugin [10]. RESULTS: The additional markers placed on the subject during data collection allowed the head and feet to be scaled more accurately using distances between new marker pairs. Scaling with BOS markers placed on the subject and removing the limit on subtalar angle resulted in more accurate BOS determination. Unrealistically large changes in joint angles between frames could be reduced by including clavicle, sternum, and medial elbow markers during IK. In cases with large arm ranges of motion, results could be further improved by running IK using medial elbow and virtual shoulder joint center markers. Model adjustments significantly improved the IK results affecting COP calculation and increased the accuracy of BOS estimation.
Simultaneous in situ measurements of NO2, NO, O3, ClO, pressure and temperature have been made for the first time, presenting a unique opportunity to test our current understanding of the photochemistry of the lower stratosphere. Data were collected from several flights of the ER-2 aircraft at mid-latitudes in May 1993 during NASA's Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE). The daytime ratio of NO2/NO remains fairly constant at 19 km with a typical value of 0.68 and standard deviation of +/- 0.17. The ratio observations are compared with simple steady-state calculations based on laboratory-measured reaction rates and modeled NO2 photolysis rates. At each measurement point the daytime NO2/NO with its measurement uncertainty overlap the results of steady-state calculations and associated uncertainty. However, over all the ER-2 flights examined, the model systematically overestimates the ratio by 40% on average. Possible sources of error are examined in both model and measurements. It is shown that more accurate laboratory determinations of the NO + O3 reaction rate and of the NO2 cross-sections in the 200-220 K temperature range characteristic of the lower stratosphere would allow for a more robust test of our knowledge of NO(x) photochemistry by reducing significant sources of uncertainties in the interpretation of stratospheric measurements. The present measurements are compared with earlier observations of the ratio at higher altitudes.
State-to-state collisional excitation rates for interstellar molecules observed by radio astronomers continue to be required to interpret observed line intensities in terms of local temperatures and densities. A problem of particular interest is collisional excitation of water which is important for modeling the observed interstellar masers. In earlier work supported by a different NASA Grant, excitation of water in collisions with He atoms was studied; after many years of successively more refined calculations that problem now seems to be well understood, and discrepancies with earlier experimental data for related (pressure broadening) phenomena are believed to reflect experimental errors. Because of interstellar abundances, excitation by H2, the dominant interstellar species, is much more important than excitation by He, although it has been argued that rates for excitation by these are similar. Under the current grant theoretical study of this problem has begun which is greatly complicated by the additional degrees of freedom which must be included both in determining the interaction potential and also in the molecular scattering calculation. We have now computed the interaction forces for nearly a thousand molecular geometries and are close to having an acceptable global fit to these points which is necessary for the molecular dynamics calculations. Also, extensive modifications have been made to the molecular scattering code, MOLSCAT. These included coding the rotational basis sets and coupling matrix elements required for collisions of an asymmetric top with a linear rotor. A new method for numerical solution of the coupled equations has been incorporated. Because of the long-ranged nature of the water-hydrogen interaction it is necessary to integrate the equations to rather large intermolecular separations, and the integration methods previously available in MOLSCAT are not ideal for such cases. However, the method used by Alexander in his HIBRIDON code is particularly suited for such cases. We have obtained this code and incorporated that part which solves the coupled differential equations as an option in the MOLSCAT program.
When a spacecraft is at low sun-earth-probe (SEP) angle, phase perturbations induced in the spacecraft's signal by the solar plasma can impede the acquisition of meaningful spacecraft Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurements. This phenomenon imposes limitations on our ability to successfully acquire the spacecraft signal, and also introduces unmodeled errors into data that are successfully acquired. In this paper, an analysis of the solar plasma induced error on interferometric delay rate as a function of SEP angle is performed. In addition, the probability of correct signal phase connection as a function of SEP angle and plasma variability is calculated for 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz signals. In December 1986, an experiment was conducted to demonstrate VLBI navigation at low SEP angles, using the Voyager 2 spacecraft. The results of this experiment are consistent with the conclusions reached in the low SEP analysis and are also consistent with a theoretical error model for water vapor fluctuations in the earth's troposphere.
A recent estimate of tidal dissipation by turbulent viscosity in Jupiter's convective interior predicts that the current value of the planet's tidal Q is roughly 5 million. We point out a fundamental error in this calculation, and show that turbulent dissipation alone implies that at present Q is about 50 trillion. Our reduced estimate for the rate of tidal dissipation shows conclusively that tidal torques have produced only negligible modifications of the orbits of the Galilean satellites over the age of the solar system.
Reserve attention capacity of a pilot was calculated using a pilot model that allocates exclusive model attention according to the ranking of task urgency functions whose variables are tracking error and error rate. The modeled task consisted of tracking a maneuvering target aircraft both vertically and horizontally, and when possible, performing a diverting side task which was simulated by the precise positioning of an electrical stylus and modeled as a task of constant urgency in the attention allocation algorithm. The urgency of the single loop vertical task is simply the magnitude of the vertical tracking error, while the multiloop horizontal task requires a nonlinear urgency measure of error and error rate terms. Comparison of model results with flight simulation data verified the computed model statistics of tracking error of both axes, lateral and longitudinal stick amplitude and rate, and side task episodes. Full data for the simulation tracking statistics as well as the explicit equations and structure of the urgency function multiaxis pilot model are presented.
Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.
NASA is investigating the application of the Phase Doppler measurement technique to provide improved drop sizing and liquid water content measurements in icing research. The magnitude of counting errors were analyzed because these errors contribute to inaccurate liquid water content measurements. The Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer counting errors due to data transfer losses and coincidence losses were analyzed for data input rates from 10 samples/sec to 70,000 samples/sec. Coincidence losses were calculated by determining the Poisson probability of having more than one event occurring during the droplet signal time. The magnitude of the coincidence loss can be determined, and for less than a 15 percent loss, corrections can be made. The data transfer losses were estimated for representative data transfer rates. With direct memory access enabled, data transfer losses are less than 5 percent for input rates below 2000 samples/sec. With direct memory access disabled losses exceeded 20 percent at a rate of 50 samples/sec preventing accurate number density or mass flux measurements. The data transfer losses of a new signal processor were analyzed and found to be less than 1 percent for rates under 65,000 samples/sec.
Global averages and random errors associated with the monthly oceanic rain rates derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data using the technique developed by Wilheit et al. (1991) are computed. Accounting for the beam-filling bias, a global annual average rain rate of 1.26 m is computed. The error estimation scheme is based on the existence of independent (morning and afternoon) estimates of the monthly mean. Calculations show overall random errors of about 50-60 percent for each 5 deg x 5 deg box. The results are insensitive to different sampling strategy (odd and even days of the month). Comparison of the SSM/I estimates with raingage data collected at the Pacific atoll stations showed a low bias of about 8 percent, a correlation of 0.7, and an rms difference of 55 percent.