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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Intercomparison of UT1 measurements during the MERIT campaign period

Universal time (UT1) measurements obtained using VLBI, lunar laser ranging (LLR), and BIH optical astronomy are compared. The JPL Kalman filter for the earth rotation and the polar motion is utilized to smooth one data set or combine data sets for intercomparison. The differences between raw UT1 data and independently smoothed data are employed to assess the accuracy of the measured series and the sufficiency of the error budget. Systematic errors in periodic signatures and length of day estimates are analyzed. The data reveal that the techniques of LLR and VLBI agree to within their formal errors. It is determined that the residual error for the LLR is too large and the residual error estimated for the BIH data is too small.

Spieth, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Terrestrial Water Mass Load Changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

Recent studies show that data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is promising for basin- to global-scale water cycle research. This study provides varied assessments of errors associated with GRACE water storage estimates. Thirteen monthly GRACE gravity solutions from August 2002 to December 2004 are examined, along with synthesized GRACE gravity fields for the same period that incorporate simulated errors. The synthetic GRACE fields are calculated using numerical climate models and GRACE internal error estimates. We consider the influence of measurement noise, spatial leakage error, and atmospheric and ocean dealiasing (AOD) model error as the major contributors to the error budget. Leakage error arises from the limited range of GRACE spherical harmonics not corrupted by noise. AOD model error is due to imperfect correction for atmosphere and ocean mass redistribution applied during GRACE processing. Four methods of forming water storage estimates from GRACE spherical harmonics (four different basin filters) are applied to both GRACE and synthetic data. Two basin filters use Gaussian smoothing, and the other two are dynamic basin filters which use knowledge of geographical locations where water storage variations are expected. Global maps of measurement noise, leakage error, and AOD model errors are estimated for each basin filter. Dynamic basin filters yield the smallest errors and highest signal-to-noise ratio. Within 12 selected basins, GRACE and synthetic data show similar amplitudes of water storage change. Using 53 river basins, covering most of Earth's land surface excluding Antarctica and Greenland, we document how error changes with basin size, latitude, and shape. Leakage error is most affected by basin size and latitude, and AOD model error is most dependent on basin latitude.

Seo, K.-W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Proposed Recommendation for DDOR PN Spread Spectrum Systems

Currently, instrumental phase dispersion is a large error term in the Delta-Differential One-way Ranging (DDOR) error budget. This error arises from the spectral difference between the narrowband spacecraft signal and the broadband quasar signal. This error term can be reduced in modern transponders by implementing a pseudo-noise (PN) spread spectrum DOR signal instead of the classic sinusoidal DOR signal. To standardize PN DDOR cross-support, this paper proposes the definitions and specifications required to support a PN DDOR system. The motivation for PN DDOR is first presented. Then, informational background is presented on code selection, pulse shaping, and code parameters. Finally, Appendix A presents a new proposed Recommendation 2.5.7B for Spread Spectrum DDOR, to be included in CCSDS 401.

Volk, Christopher P↗
NASA NTRS1983

Unified Analysis for Antenna Pointing and Structural Errors. Part 1. Review

A necessary step in the design of a high accuracy microwave antenna system is to establish the signal error budget due to structural, pointing, and environmental parameters. A unified approach in performing error budget analysis as applicable to ground-based microwave antennas of different size and operating frequency is discussed. Major error sources contributing to the resultant deviation in antenna boresighting in pointing and tracking modes and the derivation of the governing equations are presented. Two computer programs (SAMCON and EBAP) were developed in-house, including the antenna servo-control program, as valuable tools in the error budget determination. A list of possible errors giving their relative contributions and levels is presented.

Abichandani, K.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty

Over the last 5 decades monitoring systems have been developed to detect changes in the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere and ocean; however, our ability to detect changes in the behavior of the global C cycle is still hindered by measurement and estimate errors. Here we present a rigorous and flexible framework for assessing the temporal and spatial components of estimate errors and their impact on uncertainty in net C uptake by the biosphere. We present a novel approach for incorporating temporally correlated random error into the error structure of emission estimates. Based on this approach, we conclude that the 2σ uncertainties of the atmospheric growth rate have decreased from 1.2 Pg C yr ₋1 in the 1960s to 0.3 Pg C yr ₋1 in the 2000s due to an expansion of the atmospheric observation network. The 2σ uncertainties in fossil fuel emissions have increased from 0.3 Pg C yr ₋1 in the 1960s to almost 1.0 Pg C yr ₋1 during the 2000s due to differences in national reporting errors and differences in energy inventories. Lastly, while land use emissions have remained fairly constant, their errors still remain high and thus their global C uptake uncertainty is not trivial. Currently, the absolute errors in fossil fuel emissions rival the total emissions from land use, highlighting the extent to which fossil fuels dominate the global C budget. Because errors in the atmospheric growth rate have decreased faster than errors in total emissions have increased, a ~20% reduction in the overall uncertainty of net C global uptake has occurred. Given all the major sources of error in the global C budget that we could identify, we are 93% confident that terrestrial C uptake has increased and 97% confident that ocean C uptake has increased over the last 5 decades. Thus, it is clear that arguably one of the most vital ecosystem services currently provided by the biosphere is the continued removal of approximately half of atmospheric CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere, although there are certain environmental costs associated with this service, such as the acidification of ocean waters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Investigation of Measurement Errors in Doppler Global Velocimetry

While the initial development phase of Doppler Global Velocimetry (DGV) has been successfully completed, there remains a critical next phase to be conducted, namely the determination of an error budget to provide quantitative bounds for measurements obtained by this technology. This paper describes a laboratory investigation that consisted of a detailed interrogation of potential error sources to determine their contribution to the overall DGV error budget. A few sources of error were obvious; e.g., iodine vapor adsorption lines, optical systems, and camera characteristics. However, additional non-obvious sources were also discovered; e.g., laser frequency and single-frequency stability, media scattering characteristics, and interference fringes. This paper describes each identified error source, its effect on the overall error budget, and where possible, corrective procedures to reduce or eliminate its effect.

Meyers, James F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Science camera calibration for extreme adaptive optics

The nascent field of planet detection has yielded a host of extra-solar planet detections. To date, these detections have been the result of indirect techniques: the planet is inferred by precisely measuring its effect on the host star. Direct observation of extra-solar planets remains a challenging yet compelling goal. In this vein, the Center for Adaptive Optics has proposed a ground-based, high-actuator density extreme A0 system (XAOPI), for a large (~10 m) telescope whose ultimate goal is to directly evidence a specific class of these objects: young and massive planets. Detailed system wave-front error budgets suggest that this system is a feasible, if not an ambitious, proposition. One key element in this error budget is the calibration and maintenance of the science camera wave front with respect to the wave-front sensor which currently as an allowable contribution of ~ 5 nanometers rms. This talk first summarizes the current status of calibration on existing ground-based A0 systems, the magnitude of this effect in the system error budget and current techniques for mitigation. Subsequently, we will explore the nature of this calibration error term, it's source in the non-commonality between the science camera and wave front sensor, and the effect of the temporal evolution of non-commonality. Finally, we will describe preliminary plans for sensing and controlling this error term. The sensing techniques include phase retrieval, phase contrast and external metrology. To conclude, a calibration scenario that meets the stringent requirement for XAOPI will be discussed.

MacIntosh, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2004

Physical Validation of TRMM TMI and PR Monthly Rain Products Over Oklahoma

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides monthly rainfall estimates using data collected by the TRMM satellite. These estimates cover a substantial fraction of the earth's surface. The physical validation of TRMM estimates involves corroborating the accuracy of spaceborne estimates of areal rainfall by inferring errors and biases from ground-based rain estimates. The TRMM error budget consists of two major sources of error: retrieval and sampling. Sampling errors are intrinsic to the process of estimating monthly rainfall and occur because the satellite extrapolates monthly rainfall from a small subset of measurements collected only during satellite overpasses. Retrieval errors, on the other hand, are related to the process of collecting measurements while the satellite is overhead. One of the big challenges confronting the TRMM validation effort is how to best estimate these two main components of the TRMM error budget, which are not easily decoupled. This four-year study computed bulk sampling and retrieval errors for the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR) by applying a technique that sub-samples gauge data at TRMM overpass times. Gridded monthly rain estimates are then computed from the monthly bulk statistics of the collected samples, providing a sensor-dependent gauge rain estimate that is assumed to include a TRMM equivalent sampling error. The sub-sampled gauge rain estimates are then used in conjunction with the monthly satellite and gauge (without sub- sampling) estimates to decouple retrieval and sampling errors. The computed mean sampling errors for the TMI and PR were 5.9% and 7.796, respectively, in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The PR year-to-year retrieval biases exceeded corresponding TMI biases, but it was found that these differences were partially due to negative TMI biases during cold months and positive TMI biases during warm months.

Fisher, Brad L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing the DES-SN5YR and Pantheon+ SN cosmology analyses: investigation based on ‘evolving dark energy or supernovae systematics’?

Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an $\sim$0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9$\sigma$ to 3.3$\sigma$, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Investigation of Primary Mirror Segment's Residual Errors for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The primary mirror segment aberrations after shape corrections with warping harness have been identified as the single largest error term in the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) image quality error budget. In order to better understand the likely errors and how they will impact the telescope performance we have performed detailed simulations. We first generated unwarped primary mirror segment surface shapes that met TMT specifications. Then we used the predicted warping harness influence functions and a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor model to determine estimates for the 492 corrected segment surfaces that make up the TMT primary mirror. Surface and control parameters, as well as the number of subapertures were varied to explore the parameter space. The corrected segment shapes were then passed to an optical TMT model built using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems (MACOS) ray-trace simulator. The generated exit pupil wavefront error maps provided RMS wavefront error and image-plane characteristics like the Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN). The results have been used to optimize the segment shape correction and wavefront sensor designs as well as provide input to the TMT systems engineering error budgets.

warping harness↗
NASA NTRS2010

Satellite Sampling and Retrieval Errors in Regional Monthly Rain Estimates from TMI AMSR-E, SSM/I, AMSU-B and the TRMM PR

Passive and active microwave rain sensors onboard earth-orbiting satellites estimate monthly rainfall from the instantaneous rain statistics collected during satellite overpasses. It is well known that climate-scale rain estimates from meteorological satellites incur sampling errors resulting from the process of discrete temporal sampling and statistical averaging. Sampling and retrieval errors ultimately become entangled in the estimation of the mean monthly rain rate. The sampling component of the error budget effectively introduces statistical noise into climate-scale rain estimates that obscure the error component associated with the instantaneous rain retrieval. Estimating the accuracy of the retrievals on monthly scales therefore necessitates a decomposition of the total error budget into sampling and retrieval error quantities. This paper presents results from a statistical evaluation of the sampling and retrieval errors for five different space-borne rain sensors on board nine orbiting satellites. Using an error decomposition methodology developed by one of the authors, sampling and retrieval errors were estimated at 0.25 resolution within 150 km of ground-based weather radars located at Kwajalein, Marshall Islands and Melbourne, Florida. Error and bias statistics were calculated according to the land, ocean and coast classifications of the surface terrain mask developed for the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) rain algorithm. Variations in the comparative error statistics are attributed to various factors related to differences in the swath geometry of each rain sensor, the orbital and instrument characteristics of the satellite and the regional climatology. The most significant result from this study found that each of the satellites incurred negative longterm oceanic retrieval biases of 10 to 30%.

Fisher, Brad↗
NASA NTRS1995

Overview of the TOPEX/Poseidon Platform Harvest Verification Experiment

An overview is given of the in situ measurement system installed on Texaco's Platform Harvest for verification of the sea level measurement from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The prelaunch error budget suggested that the total root mean square (RMS) error due to measurements made at this verification site would be less than 4 cm. The actual error budget for the verification site is within these original specifications. However, evaluation of the sea level data from three measurement systems at the platform has resulted in unexpectedly large differences between the systems. Comparison of the sea level measurements from the different tide gauge systems has led to a better understanding of the problems of measuring sea level in relatively deep ocean. As of May 1994, the Platform Harvest verification site has successfully supported 60 TOPEX/Poseidon overflights.

Morris, Charles S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Prototype Development of a Geostationary Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer, GeoSTAR

Preliminary details of a 2-D synthetic aperture radiometer prototype operating from 50 to 58 GHz will be presented. The instrument is being developed as a laboratory testbed, and the goal of this work is to demonstrate the technologies needed to do atmospheric soundings with high spatial resolution from Geostationary orbit. The concept is to deploy a large sparse aperture Y-array from a geostationary satellite, and to use aperture synthesis to obtain images of the earth without the need for a large mechanically scanned antenna. The laboratory prototype consists of a Y-array of 24 horn antennas, MMIC receivers, and a digital cross-correlation sub-system. System studies are discussed, including an error budget which has been derived from numerical simulations. The error budget defines key requirements, such as null offsets, phase calibration, and antenna pattern knowledge. Details of the instrument design are discussed in the context of these requirements.

aperture synthesis↗
NASA NTRS2019

A comprehensive line spread function error for the Off-plane Grating Rocket Experiment

The Off-plane Grating Rocket Experiment (OGRE) is a soft X-ray grating spectrometer to be flown on a suborbital rocket. The payload is designed to obtain the highest-resolution soft X-ray spectrum of Capella to date with a resolution goal of R(lambda/delta lambda) > 2000 at select wavelengths in its 10 - 55 A bandpass of interest. The optical design of the spectrometer realizes a maximum resolution of R 5000 with all components performing optimally, in perfect alignment, and not considering in-flight pointing errors; however, performance errors, misalignments, and in-flight pointing errors work to degrade this performance. A comprehensive line spread function (LSF) error budget has been constructed for the spectrometer to identify errors contributing to the LSF, to determine how each affects the LSF, and to inform performance requirements and alignment tolerances for the spectrometer. In this document, the comprehensive LSF error budget for the OGRE spectrometer is presented and its implications are discussed.

Benjamin D Donovan↗
NASA NTRS2019

Method for Deriving Telescope Specifications for Earth-Detecting Coronagraphs and Its Use in Prioritizing Technology Development Investments

Different potential exoplanet mission concepts require different enabling and enhancing technologies. Decisions regarding prioritizing the development of these technologies can be made using a Science-Driven Systems-Engineering framework. The white paper makes the following specific recommendations. (1) Any potential telescope/coronagraph combination should develop a wavefront stability error budget using the method described in this white paper. That error budget will inform discussions about what technology development will be needed to enable the mission. (2) Enhancing and enabling technologies requiring investment include: low noise reaction wheels or control moment gyros; micro-thruster technology; active vibration isolation; materials and design practice for making lightweight stiff structures and optical components; 200-hertz wavefront sensing and control; 500-hertz sub-picometer-precision edge sensor and position actuators; non-destructive process to quantify CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) homogeneity of 4-meter class mirrors to an uncertainty of plus or minus 1 parts per billion per degree Kelvin over a 100 by 100 sampling; laser gauge positional metrology system; and predictive active thermal control.

Space Mirror Technology↗
NASA NTRS2012

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

The Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on on-board altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. The error sources for the barometric altimeters are not independent, and many error sources result in bias in a specific direction. Therefore conventional error budget methods could not be applied. Instead, high fidelity Monte-Carlo simulation was performed and error bounds were determined based on the results of this analysis. Aerodynamic errors were the largest single contributor to the error budget for the barometric altimeters. The large errors drove a change to the altitude trigger setpoint for FBC jettison deploy.

Brown, Denise L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Analysis of Mars 2020 Perseverance Entry, Descent, and Landing Attitude Initialization Performance

The Mars 2020 Perseverance rover successfully landed at Jezero Crater on February 18, 2021. To perform this feat, the entry, descent, and landing navigation filter must be initialized with an estimate of the spacecraft state, which includes attitude from the cruise attitude control subsystem. Accuracy of this initial attitude estimate has an impact on important metrics such as touchdown velocity. This paper presents a post-landing reconstruction of the attitude initialization error budget, showing that the requirement of 0.15 deg ($3\sigma$, per axis) was met. Each error source is described and analyzed, including flight telemetry where possible. Analysis of the error budget shows that it is driven by systematic sun sensor errors, star-scanner-to-sun-sensor alignment stability, and inertial-measurement-unit-to-sun-sensor alignment stability. Finally, a contingency plan to initialize the navigation filter in the event of a star scanner failure is presented. While this plan was not needed in flight, results indicate that the attitude initialization requirement could have still been met in this off-nominal scenario.

Lo, Kevin D.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Large-Scale Uncertainty and Error Analysis for Time-dependent Fluid/Structure Interactions in Wind Turbine Applications

The following is the final report covering the entire period of this aforementioned grant, June 1, 2011 - May 31, 2013 for the portion of the effort corresponding to Stanford University (SU). SU has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (PI: Mike S. Eldred) and Purdue University (PI: Dongbin Xiu) to complete this research project and this final report includes those contributions made by the members of the team at Stanford. Dr. Eldred is continuing his contributions to this project under a no-cost extension and his contributions to the overall effort will be detailed at a later time (once his effort has concluded) on a separate project submitted by Sandia National Laboratories. At Stanford, the team is made up of Profs. Alonso, Iaccarino, and Duraisamy, post-doctoral researcher Vinod Lakshminarayan, and graduate student Santiago Padron. At Sandia National Laboratories, the team includes Michael Eldred, Matt Barone, John Jakeman, and Stefan Domino, and at Purdue University, we have Prof. Dongbin Xiu as our main collaborator. The overall objective of this project was to develop a novel, comprehensive methodology for uncertainty quantification by combining stochastic expansions (nonintrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation), the adjoint approach, and fusion with experimental data to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from random variable, random field, and model form sources. The expected outcomes of this activity were detailed in the proposal and are repeated here to set the stage for the results that we have generated during the time period of execution of this project: 1. The rigorous determination of an error budget comprising numerical errors in physical space and statistical errors in stochastic space and its use for optimal allocation of resources; 2. A considerable increase in efficiency when performing uncertainty quantification with a large number of uncertain variables in complex non-linear multi-physics problems; 3. A solution to the long-time integration problem of spectral chaos approaches; 4. A rigorous methodology to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, to emphasize the most important variables via dimension reduction and dimension-adaptive refinement, and to support fusion with experimental data using Bayesian inference; 5. The application of novel methodologies to time-dependent reliability studies in wind turbine applications including a number of efforts relating to the uncertainty quantification in vertical-axis wind turbine applications. In this report, we summarize all accomplishments in the project (during the time period specified) focusing on advances in UQ algorithms and deployment efforts to the wind turbine application area. Detailed publications in each of these areas have also been completed and are available from the respective conference proceedings and journals as detailed in a later section.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗