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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Epidemiologic Analyses of Risk Factors for Bone Loss and Recovery Related to Long-Duration Space Flight

AIM 1: To investigate the risk of microgravity exposure on long-term changes in bone health and fracture risk. compare data from crew members ("observed") with what would be "expected" from Rochester Bone Health Study. AIM 2: To provide a summary of current evidence available on potential risk factors for bone loss, recovery & fracture following long-duration space flight. integrative review of all data pre, in-, and post-flight across disciplines (cardiovascular, nutrition, muscle, etc.) and their relation to bone loss and recovery

Sibonga, Jean↗
NASA NTRS2015

Epidemiologic and Environmental Risk Factors of Rift Valley Fever in Southern Africa from 2008 to 2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have been associated with periods of widespread and above normal rainfall over several months. Knowledge on the environmental factors influencing disease transmission dynamics has provided the basis for developing models to predict RVF outbreaks in Africa. From 2008 to 2011, South Africa experienced the worst wave of RVF outbreaks in almost 40 years. We investigated rainfall associated environmental factors in southern Africa preceding these outbreaks. Methods: RVF epizootic records obtained from the World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID), documenting livestock species affected, location, and time, were analyzed. Environmental variables including rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were collected and assessed in outbreak regions to understand the underlying drivers of the outbreaks. Results: The predominant domestic vertebrate species affected in 2008 and 2009 were cattle, when outbreaks were concentrated in the eastern provinces of South Africa. In 2010 and 2011, outbreaks occurred in the interior and southern provinces affecting over 16,000 sheep. The highest number of cases occurred between January and April but epidemics occurred in different regions every year, moving from the northeast of South Africa toward the southwest with each progressing year. The outbreaks showed a pattern of increased rainfall preceding epizootics ranging from 9 to 152 days; however, NDVI and rainfall were less correlated with the start of the outbreaks than has been observed in eastern Africa. Conclusions: Analyses of the multiyear RVF outbreaks of 2008 to 2011 in South Africa indicated that rainfall, NDVI, and other environmental and geographical factors, such as land use, drainage, and topography, play a role in disease emergence. Current and future investigations into these factors will be able to contribute to improving spatial accuracy of models to map risk areas, allowing adequate time for preparation and prevention before an outbreak occurs.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Example of Occupational Surveillance in a Telemedicine Setting: Application of Epidemiologic Methods at NASA Johnson Space Center

In 2010, NASA implemented Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health, a formal occupational surveillance program for the U.S. astronaut corps. Because of the nature of the space environment, space medicine presents unique challenges and opportunities for epidemiologists. One such example is the use of telemedicine while crewmembers are in flight, where the primary source of information about crew health is verbal communication between physicians and their crewmembers. Due to restricted medical capabilities, the available health information is primarily crewmember report of signs and symptoms, rather than diagnoses. As epidemiologists at NASA, Johnson Space Center, we have shifted our paradigm from tracking diagnoses based on traditional terrestrial clinical practice to one in which we also incorporate reported symptomology as potential antecedents of disease. In this presentation we describe how characterization of reported signs and symptoms can be used to establish incidence rates for inflight immunologic events. We describe interdisciplinary data sources of information that are used in combination with medical information to analyze the data. We also delineate criteria for symptom classification inclusion. Finally, we present incidence tables and graphs to illustrate the final outcomes. Using signs and symptoms reported via telemedicine, the epidemiologists provide summary evidence regarding incidence of potential inflight medical conditions. These results inform our NASA physicians and scientists, and support evaluation of the occupational health risks associated with spaceflight.

Babiak-Vazquez, Adriana↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing United States County-Level Exposure for Research on Tropical Cyclones and Human Health

Tropical cyclone epidemiology can be advanced through exposure assessment methods that are comprehensive and consistent across space and time, as these facilitate multiyear, multistorm studies. Further, an understanding of patterns in and between exposure metrics that are based on specific hazards of the storm can help in designing tropical cyclone epidemiological research. a) Provide an open-source data set for tropical cyclone exposure assessment for epidemiological research; and b) investigate patterns and agreement between county-level assessments of tropical cyclone exposure based on different storm hazards. We created an open-source data set with data at the county level on exposure to four tropical cyclone hazards: peak sustained wind, rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes. The data cover all eastern U.S. counties for all land-falling or near-land Atlantic basin storms, covering 1996–2011 for all metrics and up to 1988–2018 for specific metrics. We validated measurements against other data sources and investigated patterns and agreement among binary exposure classifications based on these metrics, as well as compared them to use of distance from the storm’s track, which has been used as a proxy for exposure in some epidemiological studies. Our open-source data set was typically consistent with data from other sources, and we present and discuss areas of disagreement and other caveats. Over the study period and area, tropical cyclones typically brought different hazards to different counties. Therefore, when comparing exposure assessment between different hazard-specific metrics, agreement was usually low, as it also was when comparing exposure assessment based on a distance-based proxy measurement and any of the hazard-specific metrics. Our results provide a multihazard data set that can be leveraged for epidemiological research on tropical cyclones, as well as insights that can inform the design and analysis for tropical cyclone epidemiological research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Torque Teno Sus Virus 1: A Potential Surrogate Pathogen to Study Pig-Transmitted Transboundary Animal Diseases

Understanding the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of transboundary animal diseases (TADs) among wild pigs (Sus scrofa) will aid in preventing the introduction or containment of TADs among wild populations. Given the challenges associated with studying TADs in free-ranging populations, a surrogate pathogen system may predict how pathogens may circulate and be maintained within wild free-ranging swine populations, how they may spill over into domestic populations, and how management actions may impact transmission. We assessed the suitability of Torque teno sus virus 1 (TTSuV1) to serve as a surrogate pathogen for molecular epidemiological studies in wild pigs by investigating the prevalence, persistence, correlation with host health status and genetic variability at two study areas: Archbold’s Buck Island Ranch in Florida and Savannah River Site in South Carolina. We then conducted a molecular epidemiological case study within Archbold’s Buck Island Ranch site to determine how analysis of this pathogen could inform transmission dynamics of a directly transmitted virus. Prevalence was high in both study areas (40%, n = 190), and phylogenetic analyses revealed high levels of genetic variability within and between study areas. Our case study showed that pairwise host relatedness and geographic distance were highly correlated to pairwise viral genetic similarity. Molecular epidemiological analyses revealed a distinct pattern of direct transmission from pig to pig occurring within and between family groups. Our results suggest that TTSuV1 is highly suitable for molecular epidemiological analyses and will be useful for future studies of transmission dynamics in wild free-ranging pigs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Epidemic Intelligence Service Alumni in Public Health Leadership Roles

Since 1951, the Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has trained physicians, nurses, scientists, veterinarians, and other allied health professionals in applied epidemiology. To understand the program’s effect on graduates’ leadership outcomes, we examined the EIS alumni representation in five select leadership positions. These positions were staffed by 353 individuals, of which 185 (52%) were EIS alumni. Among 12 CDC directors, four (33%) were EIS alumni. EIS alumni accounted for 29 (58%) of the 50 CDC center directors, 61 (35%) of the 175 state epidemiologists, 27 (56%) of the 48 Field Epidemiology Training Program resident advisors, and 70 (90%) of the 78 Career Epidemiology Field Officers. Of the 185 EIS alumni in leadership positions, 136 (74%) were physicians, 22 (12%) were scientists, 21 (11%) were veterinarians, 6 (3%) were nurses, and 94 (51%) were assigned to a state or local health department. Among the 61 EIS alumni who served as state epidemiologists, 40 (66%) of them were assigned to a state or local health department during EIS. Our evaluation suggests that epidemiology training programs can serve as a vital resource for the public health workforce, particularly given the capacity strains brought to light by the COVID-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The predictive skill of convolutional neural networks models for disease forecasting

In this paper we investigate the utility of one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) models in epidemiological forecasting. Deep learning models, in particular variants of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been studied for ILI (Influenza-Like Illness) forecasting, and have achieved a higher forecasting skill compared to conventional models such as ARIMA. In this study, we adapt two neural networks that employ one-dimensional temporal convolutional layers as a primary building block—temporal convolutional networks and simple neural attentive meta-learners—for epidemiological forecasting. We then test them with influenza data from the US collected over 2010-2019. We find that epidemiological forecasting with CNNs is feasible, and their forecasting skill is comparable to, and at times, superior to, plain RNNs. Thus CNNs and RNNs bring the power of nonlinear transformations to purely data-driven epidemiological models, a capability that heretofore has been limited to more elaborate mechanistic/compartmental disease models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗