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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing emulation methods for a high‐resolution storm surge model

Abstract Realistic simulations of complex systems are fundamental for climate and environmental studies. Large computer systems are often not sufficient to run sophisticated computational models for large numbers of different input settings. Statistical surrogate models, or emulators, are key tools enabling fast exploration of the simulator input space. Gaussian processes have become standard for computer simulator emulation. However, they require careful implementation to scale appropriately, motivating alternative methods more recently introduced. We present a comparison study of surrogates of the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) simulator—the simulator of choice for government agencies—using four emulation approaches: BASS; BART; SEPIA; and RobustGaSP. SEPIA and RobustGaSP use Gaussian processes, BASS implements adaptive splines, and BART is based on ensembles of regression trees. We describe the four models and compare them in terms of computation time and predictive metrics. These surrogates use proven and distinct methodologies, are available through accessible software, and quantify prediction uncertainty. Our data cover millions of response values. We find that SEPIA and RobustGaSP provide exceptional predictive power, but cannot scale to emulate experiments as large as the one considered in this paper as effectively as BASS and BART.

Hutchings, Grant↗

DOE OSTI2022

Digitally manufactured air plasma-on-water reactor for nitrate production

The sustainable production of food to support the increasing world population is one of humanity’s most pressing challenges. Plasma activated water, produced using renewable energy, can help fulfill plants’ needs in sustainable agriculture approaches. The design, implementation, and characterization of a digitally manufactured air plasma-on-water reactor (POWR) for the synthesis of nitrate as green nitrogen fertilizer is presented. The interaction of air plasma-generated reactive oxygen and nitrogen species with water produces nitrate (NO 3 - ) and related species, which are the main nitrogen-containing nutrients for plants. The mild conditions of the operation of the POWR opens the possibility to use plastics, particularly through digital manufacturing strategies such as 3D-printing, for its fabrication. A pin-to-plate reactor configuration powered by high-voltage alternating power is chosen due to its simplicity and efficacy. A computational thermal-fluid model is used to evaluate the design and attain expected operational characteristics. The experimental characterization of the POWR encompassed design and operation parameters, namely electrode-water spacing, air flow rate, and voltage level. A machine learning approach is implemented to extract and quantify characteristic features of the plasma–water interaction, such plasma volume and plasma–water interface area. Experimental results revealed that the nitrate production rate varies linearly with dimensionless plasma volume. The design, fabrication, and characterization methods presented can be adapted to other POWRs and help enable on-demand nitrogen fertilizer production at low environmental and economic cost.

Physics↗

NASA NTRS1989

Computational neural learning formalisms for manipulator inverse kinematics

An efficient, adaptive neural learning paradigm for addressing the inverse kinematics of redundant manipulators is presented. The proposed methodology exploits the infinite local stability of terminal attractors - a new class of mathematical constructs which provide unique information processing capabilities to artificial neural systems. For robotic applications, synaptic elements of such networks can rapidly acquire the kinematic invariances embedded within the presented samples. Subsequently, joint-space configurations, required to follow arbitrary end-effector trajectories, can readily be computed. In a significant departure from prior neuromorphic learning algorithms, this methodology provides mechanisms for incorporating an in-training skew to handle kinematics and environmental constraints.

Gulati, Sandeep↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗

NASA NTRS1995

Interactive access and management for four-dimensional environmental data sets using McIDAS

This grant has fundamentally changed the way that meteorologists look at the output of their atmospheric models, through the development and wide distribution of the Vis5D system. The Vis5D system is also gaining acceptance among oceanographers and atmospheric chemists. Vis5D gives these scientists an interactive three-dimensional movie of their very large data sets that they can use to understand physical mechanisms and to trace problems to their sources. This grant has also helped to define the future direction of scientific visualization through the development of the VisAD system and its lattice data model. The VisAD system can be used to interactively steer and visualize scientific computations. A key element of this capability is the flexibility of the system's data model to adapt to a wide variety of scientific data, including the integration of several forms of scientific metadata.

Hibbard, William L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Space motion sickness preflight adaptation training Preliminary studies with prototype trainers

Based on the otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation hypothesis (Parker et al., 1985), preflight adaptation procedures and several preflight adaptation trainers (PATs) have been developed. Two PAT prototypes, the Miami University Seesaw (MUS) and the Dynamic Environmental Simulator (DES), include a physical room that is moved relative to the restrained subject. Results from the MUS and DES PAT experiments indicate that exposure to the produced sensory rearrangement can change eye movement reflexes. The changes persisted for a period longer than the training exposure period, indicating similarity with the eye-movement reflexes observed immediately postflight in weightlessness-adapted astronauts. It is concluded that the apparatus and procedures to preadapt astronauts to the sensory rearrangement of weightless space flight can be developed on the basis of the reported PATs and procedures. The third PAT prototype tested, which employs a computer-generated scene, failed to produce changes similar to those recorded in the MUS and DES experiments.

Parker, D. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

CFD Simulation of Aerobic Gas Fermentation to Enable Commercial Conversion of CO 2 into Aquaculture and Animal Feed: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

NovoNutrients’ fermentation technology uses energy from hydrogen to transform industrial CO2 emissions into premium animal feed ingredients and other valuable products. A single NovoNutrients’ commercial manufacturing plant will capture and convert over 200,000 tons/yr of CO2 into over 100,000 tons/yr of high-protein feed. Key to the rapid and widespread deployment of the technology is maximization of its productivity and energy efficiency. Robust, physically based computational models of the technology will significantly increase productivity and efficiency, accelerating NovoNutrients’ technology to manufacturing scale. NREL has unique capabilities for creating and running such computational models. NREL's existing aerobic bioreaction computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models will be adapted to NovoNutrients’ gas fermentation (CO2, H2, O2) technology. The multiphysics CFD simulations require thousands of high-performance computing (HPC) node hours to simulate the complex geometries and contents of NovoNutrients’ industrial bioreactors. The experimentally validated CFD models were used to identify optimally efficient and productive bioreactor designs and operating conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

NASA NTRS2019

Nasa GeneLab Computomics Reveal Horizontal Gene Transfer on International Space Station Environmental Metagenomes

Prokaryotic lifeforms can be observed to demonstrate many keen adaptive advantages, perhaps facilitated by a nature simplistic relative to divergent domains of life. In particular, decompartmentalized gene expression facilitates adaptation by allowing free exchange of genetic material, albeit at the cost of increased susceptibility to genetic damage. Thus, these lifeforms must compensate by embracing diverse investment strategies in an attempt to “brute force” the evolvability equation through precipitous genesis, lean metabolic efficiency, and sheer population. This prokaryotic archetype also enables symbiotic relationships with secondary mobile genetic elements known as plasmids, which have been shown to drive evolution on rapid temporal scales through processes such as conjugation and transformation. This study attempts to decipher whether these mechanisms of horizontal gene transfer (HGT) are major factors in determining prokaryote fitness within a unique isolated environment, the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS Microbial Tracking (MT) project has generated a wealth of data concerning the successive reigns of microbial genera that appear to thrive amidst harsh conditions for life. Despite relatively higher doses of ionizing radiation as compared to Earth, complications associated with microgravity, and the anti-microbial mélange deployed, microbial life still persists in this environment. The NASA GeneLab serves as a data repository and analysis platform to enable researchers to access space flight factor related data. With the use of GeneLab’s modern computational suites (computomics), phylogenetic and functional genomic investigations of HGT events were conducted on the data generated from the MT-1 project. The putative data concerning the plasmid population (plasmidome) of the ISS was algorithmically derived and compared to those of habitats with similar environmental dynamics- such as living quarters and hospitals- to investigate whether these HGT elements may play crucial role(s) in shaping the microbiome of this closed habitat that serves as the only inhabited structure in space.

Bense, Nicholas↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling of Convective Storms Driven by Real-time Analytics

Convective storms vertically transport water vapor and condensate from Earth’s surface to the upper troposphere. Life on Earth is fundamentally linked to this transport which determines the hydrological cycle, and the intensity of severe weather responsible for the destruction of life and property. Despite advances in high-resolution modeling and better observational capabilities, the scientific community continues to be confronted with knowledge gaps about convective storms that limit our predictive capabilities. The ongoing developments in the high-resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), large eddy simulations, and AI-based analytics to evaluate uncertainties are expected to provide a comprehensive framework for new scientific discovery. The model-experiment (MODEX) approach suggests that the aforementioned advancements in model development and AI-based inference techniques should be complemented by similar advancements in the experimental (observational) side so that the former does not outstrip the ability of the latter to provide meaningful constraints. What are the recent advancements in observations that will provide the necessary leap forward in improving our predictive capabilities? To address this question, we propose a new experimental paradigm called Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS) that capitalizes on advancements in communications (5G), computational resources (edge/fog computing), sensor capabilities, and machine learning (ML) and AI techniques (Kollias et al., 2020). The MAAS framework allows for the collection of higher spatiotemporal resolution and quality observations of convective storms than is traditionally possible. The MAAS framework is scalable and applicable to atmospheric observatories such as those operated by the Department of Energy (DoE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Life prediction modeling based on cyclic damage accumulation

A high temperature, low cycle fatigue life prediction method was developed. This method, Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA), was developed for use in predicting the crack initiation lifetime of gas turbine engine materials, where initiation was defined as a 0.030 inch surface length crack. A principal engineering feature of the CDA method is the minimum data base required for implementation. Model constants can be evaluated through a few simple specimen tests such as monotonic loading and rapic cycle fatigue. The method was expanded to account for the effects on creep-fatigue life of complex loadings such as thermomechanical fatigue, hold periods, waveshapes, mean stresses, multiaxiality, cumulative damage, coatings, and environmental attack. A significant data base was generated on the behavior of the cast nickel-base superalloy B1900+Hf, including hundreds of specimen tests under such loading conditions. This information is being used to refine and extend the CDA life prediction model, which is now nearing completion. The model is also being verified using additional specimen tests on wrought INCO 718, and the final version of the model is expected to be adaptable to most any high-temperature alloy. The model is currently available in the form of equations and related constants. A proposed contract addition will make the model available in the near future in the form of a computer code to potential users.

Nelson, Richard S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Survey of ISS and Visiting Vehicle Returned Surfaces for Environmental Characterization and Computer Model Development

The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is a data-driven model — extensive radar, optical, laboratory, and in situ measurement data sets have been used to build the model since its earliest versions. A salient aspect of professional software development is the verification and validation (V&V) process. Verification answers the question “Is the model built correctly?” while validation addresses the question “Did we build the correct model?” Less extensive, reserved, or independent data sets serve the validation requirement. Due to the dynamic nature of the orbital debris environment, it is critical to use contemporaneous data sources that represent the current environment to support ORDEM development and validation. ORDEM has utilized in situ data collected from Space Shuttle and Hubble Space Telescope surface inspections, now over a decade old. This historical dataset is fundamental for providing baseline in situ measurement data for sizes between 10 to 300 microns, but new data sources are being evaluated using returned surfaces from or near the International Space Station (ISS). This paper reviews a general microscopic survey of ISS soft goods, the Pressurized Mating Adapter 2 (PMA-2) blanket, and a limited-scope feasibility study conducted on the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) Dragon capsule’s Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The PMA-2 blanket, exposed to the space environment between 09 July 2013 and 25 February 2015, is an approximately 3.7 m2-area blanket composed of a betacloth outer layer and multiple ballistic fabric inner layers. The SpaceX Cargo Dragon capsule regularly visited the ISS from 2012 through 2020 and potentially provides a timely and well-characterized source of data for modeling purposes. The capsule’s lateral surfaces use SpaceX Proprietary Ablative Material (SPAM) TPS material, a syntactic foam, for thermal management during all mission phases. Seven SPAM extracted samples have been analyzed to date. This paper will provide an overview of the characterization completed for impact features by size, depth, impactor diameter, and the impactor residues chemical analyses, allowing a differentiation between micrometeoroids and orbital debris and a categorization by mass density and density class. Impactor diameter is estimated using damage equations generated from ground-based hypervelocity impact testing. The orbital debris impactors are compared to the current ORDEM 3.2 model of the environment at ISS altitudes. We briefly discuss the meteoroid impactors, including constituents and mass densities, in the general context of current models.

Phillip Anz-meador↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Survey of ISS and Visiting Vehicle Returned Surfaces for Environmental Characterization and Computer Model Development

Phillip Anz-Meador↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Agent Control Planes for Quantum Networks: A Scalable Architecture for Autonomous Quantum Internet Management

Quantum networks are expected to enable distributed quantum computing, secure communication, and global entanglement distribution. However, operating such networks presents significant challenges, including stochastic quantum processes, fragile entanglement resources, dynamic topology, and cross-layer control requirements. Current quantum network control architectures largely rely on centralized or hierarchical controllers inspired by classical software-defined networking (SDN). While effective for small testbeds, these approaches face scalability, latency, and reliability limitations as quantum networks grow. This paper proposes a multi-agent control plane architecture for quantum networks. In this design, intelligent software agents operate at quantum nodes, repeaters, and orchestration layers, collectively managing entanglement generation, routing, purification, and scheduling. The distributed intelligence of the agent system allows the network to adapt dynamically to quantum hardware variability and environmental noise. We argue that multi-agent systems provide significant advantages over centralized control approaches, including scalability, resilience, local autonomy, and real-time adaptation. The paper discusses architectural design principles, agent coordination mechanisms, and research challenges in deploying multi-agent control planes for the emerging quantum Internet.

Alnajjar, Anees [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000237101601)↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis via CFD Simulation on the Impact of Graphite Anode Morphologies on the Discharge of a Lithium-Ion Battery

The morphology of electrode materials plays a crucial role in determining the performance of lithium-ion batteries. Traditional computational models often simplify graphite flakes as uniformly sized spheres, which limits their predictive accuracy. In this study, we present a computational workflow that overcomes these limitations by incorporating a more realistic representation of graphite morphologies. This workflow is designed to be flexible and reproducible, enabling efficient evaluation of electrochemical performance across diverse material structures. By exploring different graphite morphologies, our approach accelerates the optimization of material preparation techniques and processing conditions. Our findings reveal that incorporating greater morphological complexity leads to significant deviations from classical model predictions. Instead, our refined model offers a more accurate representation of battery discharge behavior, closely aligning with experimental data. This improvement underscores the importance of detailed morphological descriptions in advancing battery design and performance assessments. To promote accessibility and reproducibility, we provide the developed code for seamless integration with the COMSOL API, allowing researchers to implement and adapt it easily. This computational framework serves as a valuable tool for investigating the impact of graphite morphology on battery performance, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and experimental validation to enhance lithium-ion battery technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗