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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Dynamic analysis of space structures including elastic, multibody, and control behavior

The problem is to develop analysis methods, modeling stategies, and simulation tools to predict with assurance the on-orbit performance and integrity of large complex space structures that cannot be verified on the ground. The problem must incorporate large reliable structural models, multi-body flexible dynamics, multi-tier controller interaction, environmental models including 1g and atmosphere, various on-board disturbances, and linkage to mission-level performance codes. All areas are in serious need of work, but the weakest link is multi-body flexible dynamics.

Pinson, Larry↗
NASA NTRS2004

Solar Powered Flight on Venus

Solar powered flight within the Venus environment from the surface to the upper atmosphere was evaluated. The objective was to see if a station-keeping mission was possible within this environment based on a solar power generating system. Due to the slow rotation rate of Venus it would be possible to remain within the day light side of the planet for extended periods of time. However the high wind speeds and thick cloud cover make a station-keeping solar powered mission challenging. The environment of Venus was modeled as a function of altitude from the surface. This modeling included density, temperature, solar attenuation and wind speed. Using this environmental model flight with both airships and aircraft was considered to evaluate whether a station-keeping mission is feasible. The solar power system and flight characteristics of both types of vehicles was modeled and power balance was set up to determine if the power available from the solar array was sufficient to provide enough thrust to maintain station over a fixed ground location.

Colozza, Anthony↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sustainability and affordability of building electrification: A state-by-state holistic approach for multifamily buildings

This paper explores the evolving narrative of building electrification, considering its potential to solve climate change. Previous research has predominantly focused on hybrid renewable energy portfolios and increasing home pricing premiums, overlooking the perspectives of renters burdened by housing costs. Moreover, existing studies have primarily examined the effects of electrification on single-family homes and case studies, neglecting multifamily buildings and their relationship with the grid. This comprehensive study leverages calibrated building energy models to address these gaps and evaluates sustainability through carbon dioxide emissions and affordability through economic performance. The findings demonstrate significant progress in electrification since 2017, with nearly all states showing decreased energy usage in the electrified models. Environmentally, twenty-two states perform better or comparably with the electrified models in the most recent study. Economically, challenges persist, but a sensitivity analysis demonstrates how results could improve soon. Furthermore, the study discusses the outlook of electrified multifamily buildings, considering ongoing decarbonization plans for the electric grid. In three case studies, electrification demonstrates improvements in over half of the states by 2026. Overall, the research highlights the importance of expanding analysis to include multifamily buildings and emphasizes the positive impact of electrification as a viable energy, environmental, and economic solution.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Applications of NASA Mission Technologies to the Greening of Human Impact

I will give an overview talk about flight software systems, robotics technologies and modeling for energy minimization as applied to vehicles and buildings infrastructures. A dominant issue in both design and operations of robotic spacecraft is the minimization of energy use. In the design and building of spacecraft increased power is acquired only at the cost of additional mass and volumes and ultimately cost. Consequently, interplanetary spacecrafts are designed to have the minimum essential power and those designs often incorporate careful timing of all power use. Operationally, the availability of power is the most influential constraint for the use of planetary surface robots, such as the Mars Exploration Rovers. The amount of driving done, the amount of science accomplished and indeed the survivability of the spacecraft itself is determined by the power available for use. For the Mars Exploration Rovers there are four tools which are used: (1) models of the rover and it s thermal and power use (2) predictive environmental models of power input and thermal environment (3) fine grained manipulation of power use (4) optimization modeling and planning tools. In this talk I will discuss possible applications of this methodology to minimizing power use on Earth, especially in buildings.

Sims, Michael H.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Introductory comments on the USGS geographic applications program

The third phase of remote sensing technologies and potentials applied to the operations of the U.S. Geological Survey is introduced. Remote sensing data with multidisciplinary spatial data from traditional sources is combined with geographic theory and techniques of environmental modeling. These combined imputs are subject to four sequential activities that involve: (1) thermatic mapping of land use and environmental factors; (2) the dynamics of change detection; (3) environmental surveillance to identify sudden changes and general trends; and (4) preparation of statistical model and analytical reports. Geography program functions, products, clients, and goals are presented in graphical form, along with aircraft photo missions, geography test sites, and FY-70.

Gerlach, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamics and stability of a tethered centrifuge in low earth orbit

The three-dimensional attitude dynamics of a spaceborne tethered centrifuge for artificial gravity experiments in low earth orbit is analyzed using two different methods. First, the tethered centrifuge is modeled as a dumbbell with a straight viscoelastic tether, point tip-masses, and sophisticated environmental models such as nonspherical gravity, thermal perturbations, and a dynamic atmospheric model. The motion of the centrifuge during spin-up, de-spin, and steady-rotation is then simulated. Second, a continuum model of the tether is developed for analyzing the stability of lateral tether oscillations. Results indicate that the maximum fluctuation about the 1-g radial acceleration level is less than 0.001 g; the time required for spin-up and de-spin is less than one orbit; and lateral oscillations are stable for any practical values of the system parameters.

Quadrelli, B. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Crops Models for Varying Environmental Conditions

New variable environment Modified Energy Cascade (MEC) crop models were developed for all the Advanced Life Support (ALS) candidate crops and implemented in SIMULINK. The MEC models are based on the Volk, Bugbee, and Wheeler Energy Cascade (EC) model and are derived from more recent Top-Level Energy Cascade (TLEC) models. The MEC models simulate crop plant responses to day-to-day changes in photosynthetic photon flux, photoperiod, carbon dioxide level, temperature, and relative humidity. The original EC model allows changes in light energy but uses a less accurate linear approximation. The simulation outputs of the new MEC models for constant nominal environmental conditions are very similar to those of earlier EC models that use parameters produced by the TLEC models. There are a few differences. The new MEC models allow setting the time for seed emergence, have realistic exponential canopy growth, and have corrected harvest dates for potato and tomato. The new MEC models indicate that the maximum edible biomass per meter squared per day is produced at the maximum allowed carbon dioxide level, the nominal temperatures, and the maximum light input. Reducing the carbon dioxide level from the maximum to the minimum allowed in the model reduces crop production significantly. Increasing temperature decreases production more than it decreases the time to harvest, so productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greater at nominal than maximum temperatures, The productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greatest at the maximum light energy input allowed in the model, but the edible biomass produced per light energy input unit is lower than at nominal light levels. Reducing light levels increases light and power use efficiency. The MEC models suggest we can adjust the light energy day-to- day to accommodate power shortages or Lise excess power while monitoring and controlling edible biomass production.

Jones, Harry↗
DOE OSTI2025

xGFabric: Coupling Sensor Networks and HPC Facilities with Private 5G Wireless Networks for Real-Time Digital Agriculture

Advanced scientific applications require coupling distributed sensor networks with centralized high-performance computing facilities. Citrus Under Protective Screening (CUPS) exemplifies this need in digital agriculture, where citrus research facilities are instrumented with numerous sensors monitoring environmental conditions and detecting protective screening damage. CUPS demands access to computational fluid dynamics codes for modeling environmental conditions and guiding real-time interventions like water application or robotic repairs. These computing domains have contrasting properties: sensor networks provide low-performance, limited-capacity, unreliable data access, while high-performance facilities offer enormous computing power through high-latency batch processing. Private 5G networks present novel capabilities addressing this challenge by providing low latency, high throughput, and reliability necessary for near-real-time coupling of edge sensor networks with HPC simulations. This work presents xGFabric, an end-to-end system coupling sensor networks with HPC facilities through Private 5G networks. The prototype connects remote sensors via 5G network slicing to HPC systems, enabling real-time digital agriculture simulation.

Digital Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Martian Meteorites and Martian Regolith as Shield Materials for Galactic Cosmic Rays

Theoretical calculations of radiation attenuation due to energetic galactic cosmic rays behind Martian rock and Martian regolith material have been made to compare their utilization as shields for advanced manned missions to Mars because the detailed chemical signature of Mars is distinctly different from Earth. The modified radiation fields behind the Martian rocks and the soil model were generated by solving the Boltzmann equation using a HZETRN system with the 1977 Solar Minimum environmental model. For the comparison of the attenuation characteristics, dose and dose equivalent are calculated for the five different subgroups of Martian rocks and the Martian regolith. The results indicate that changes in composition of subgroups of Martian rocks have negligible effects on the overall shielding properties because of the similarity of their constituents. The differences for dose and dose equivalent of these materials relative to those of Martian regolith are within 0.5 and 1 percent, respectively. Therefore, the analysis of Martian habitat construction options using in situ materials according to the Martian regolith model composition is reasonably accurate. Adding an epoxy to Martian regolith, which changes the major constituents of the material, enhances shielding properties because of the added hydrogenous constituents.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Optimization as a Tool for Consistency Maintenance in Multi-Resolution Simulation

The need for new approaches to the consistent simulation of related phenomena at multiple levels of resolution is great. While many fields of application would benefit from a complete and approachable solution to this problem, such solutions have proven extremely difficult. We present a multi-resolution simulation methodology that uses numerical optimization as a tool for maintaining external consistency between models of the same phenomena operating at different levels of temporal and/or spatial resolution. Our approach follows from previous work in the disparate fields of inverse modeling and spacetime constraint-based animation. As a case study, our methodology is applied to two environmental models of forest canopy processes that make overlapping predictions under unique sets of operating assumptions, and which execute at different temporal resolutions. Experimental results are presented and future directions are addressed.

TEMPORAL RESOLUTION↗
NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Prediction of spacecraft potentials at geosynchronous orbit

Two relatively straightforward techniques are outlined for determining spacecraft potentials in the limit of a 'thick sheath' surrounding the spacecraft. A statistical model of the various features of the geosynchronous environment based on ATS-5 and ATS-6 data and an analytic model capable of detailed simulation of the low energy geosynchronous environment are also discussed. The results from these two environmental models are then combined with the charging models in order to provide estimates of the relationships between the geomagnetic index and spacecraft potential. The results are compared with actual potential measurements from ATS-5 and ATS-6.

Garrett, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Simulation of Attitude and Trajectory Dynamics and Control of Multiple Spacecraft

Agora software is a simulation of spacecraft attitude and orbit dynamics. It supports spacecraft models composed of multiple rigid bodies or flexible structural models. Agora simulates multiple spacecraft simultaneously, supporting rendezvous, proximity operations, and precision formation flying studies. The Agora environment includes ephemerides for all planets and major moons in the solar system, supporting design studies for deep space as well as geocentric missions. The environment also contains standard models for gravity, atmospheric density, and magnetic fields. Disturbance force and torque models include aerodynamic, gravity-gradient, solar radiation pressure, and third-body gravitation. In addition to the dynamic and environmental models, Agora supports geometrical visualization through an OpenGL interface. Prototype models are provided for common sensors, actuators, and control laws. A clean interface accommodates linking in actual flight code in place of the prototype control laws. The same simulation may be used for rapid feasibility studies, and then used for flight software validation as the design matures. Agora is open-source and portable across computing platforms, making it customizable and extensible. It is written to support the entire GNC (guidance, navigation, and control) design cycle, from rapid prototyping and design analysis, to high-fidelity flight code verification. As a top-down design, Agora is intended to accommodate a large range of missions, anywhere in the solar system. Both two-body and three-body flight regimes are supported, as well as seamless transition between them. Multiple spacecraft may be simultaneously simulated, enabling simulation of rendezvous scenarios, as well as formation flying. Built-in reference frames and orbit perturbation dynamics provide accurate modeling of precision formation control.

Stoneking, Eric T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Watson, Leela R.↗