Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “ensembles”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Portable, heterogeneous ensemble workflows at scale using libEnsemble

libEnsemble is a Python-based toolkit for running dynamic ensembles, developed as part of the DOE Exascale Computing Project. The toolkit utilizes a unique generator–simulator–allocator paradigm, where generators produce input for simulators, simulators evaluate those inputs, and allocators decide whether and when a simulator or generator should be called. The generator steers the ensemble based on simulation results. Generators may, for example, apply methods for numerical optimization, machine learning, or statistical calibration. libEnsemble communicates between a manager and workers. Flexibility is provided through multiple manager–worker communication substrates each of which has different benefits. These include Python’s multiprocessing, mpi4py, and TCP. Multisite ensembles are supported using Balsam or Globus Compute. We overview the unique characteristics of libEnsemble as well as current and potential interoperability with other packages in the workflow ecosystem. We highlight libEnsemble’s dynamic resource features: libEnsemble can detect system resources, such as available nodes, cores, and GPUs, and assign these in a portable way. These features allow users to specify the number of processors and GPUs required for each simulation; and resources will be automatically assigned on a wide range of systems, including Frontier, Aurora, and Perlmutter. Such ensembles can include multiple simulation types, some using GPUs and others using only CPUs, sharing nodes for maximum efficiency. We also describe the benefits of libEnsemble’s generator–simulator coupling, which easily exposes to the user the ability to cancel, and portably kill, running simulations based on models that are updated with intermediate simulation output. We demonstrate libEnsemble’s capabilities, scalability, and scientific impact via a Gaussian process surrogate training problem for the longitudinal density profile at the exit of a plasma accelerator stage. In conclusion, the study uses gpCAM for the surrogate model and employs either Wake-T or WarpX simulations, highlighting efficient use of resources that can easily extend to exascale.

Dynamic ensembles↗
DOE OSTI2026

Boundary-induced classical generalized Gibbs ensemble with angular momentum

We investigate how confinement geometry leads to the emergence of a Generalized Gibbs Ensemble (GGE) in classical systems. Unlike the standard Gibbs ensemble, the GGE includes additional conserved quantities, such as angular momentum, that arise from boundary-induced symmetries. Using analytical arguments based on the maximum entropy principle, we show that circular boundaries preserve angular momentum and drive the system toward a chiral, non-ergodic GGE that violates time-reversal symmetry. This ensemble differs fundamentally from the Gibbs case, producing near-boundary condensation and revealing how geometry alone can alter thermal equilibration. To quantify these effects, we introduce an order parameter measuring deviations from Gibbs behavior and demonstrate that conventional Monte Carlo methods must incorporate angular momentum conservation under such conditions. Our study highlights how geometric constraints shape non-equilibrium statistical ensembles and lead to subtle departures from the Bohr-van Leeuwen theorem. These predictions are validated through detailed simulations of confined classical hard-disk gases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

microwave observations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification using Deep Ensembles for Decision Making in Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper and its companion, Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, Robison et al., we examine an approach to quantifying model uncertainty with the aim of increasing the trustworthiness of computational models in human-machine interactions. In Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, we focus on gradient-boosted decision trees, while in this one, we give more details about deep ensembles. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trustworthy autonomous decision-making agents in human-machine teams. There are two types of uncertainties: aleatoric and epistemic. The former is related to the inherent stochasticity (noise) of the process, whereas the latter is associated with the lack of knowledge or representation capability of models, such as neural networks. By lack of knowledge, we mean the model’s inability to accurately predict outputs for all possible inputs. The aleatory uncertainty can be estimated fairly easily with, for example, filters, whereas epistemic uncertainty is challenging to compute. This paper uses deep ensembles to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It can act as an uncertainty-aware surrogate transition model for decision-making frameworks. "Uncertainty-aware" means that the surrogate transition model should make predictions along with confidence in those predictions. In the context of decision-making, the transition models are ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Since ODEs can be simulated to make one-step or multi-step predictions, a good surrogate model for them should perform reasonably well in both modes. In a multi-step approach, the trajectory sampling method TS∞ was used to propagate uncertainty over multiple steps. The cartpole dynamical system was selected to demonstrate the ability of deep ensembles as good surrogate transition models for decision-making frameworks. The deep ensembles modeled the dynamics of cartpole ODEs and made uncertainty-aware predictions in single-step and multi-step transition modes.

CPH systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Production of High Yield, Ultra‐Shallow Nitrogen‐Vacancy Centre Ensembles Through High Purity Forming gas Annealing

Dense, ultra‐shallow (<10 nm from the surface) ensembles of nitrogen‐vacancy (NV) centers in diamond are sought‐after for realising practical quantum sensing at the nanoscale. However, these ensembles typically suffer from reduced NV creation efficiency and spin coherence compared to their deeper and bulk counterparts. Consequently, most demonstrations in the literature to date have been restricted to using single NV centers with atypical coherence and charge stability properties not achievable across entire ensembles. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that controlled annealing in a high purity forming gas atmosphere improves near‐surface NV formation efficiency to over 20%. This environment preserves a high quality hydrogen termination throughout the anneal, avoiding material etching over many hours at temperatures up to 1100°C and possibly helping to suppress vacancy out‐diffusion. We show that high temperature annealing is especially vital for improving spin properties in high density, ultra‐shallow implanted samples due to the localised damage profiles produced. By allowing the formation of high yield NV ensembles with improved spin properties, the optimised forming gas anneal can facilitate the reliable production of more sensitive diamond sensors than have previously been accessible.

Healey, Alexander J. [Royal Melbourne Institute of↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Determining the Ensemble N -Representability of Reduced Density Matrices

The N-representability problem for reduced density matrices remains a fundamental challenge in electronic structure theory. Following our previous work that employs a unitary-evolution algorithm based on an adaptive derivative-assembled pseudo-Trotter variational quantum algorithm to probe pure-state N-representability of reduced density matrices [J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2024, 20, 9968], in this work we propose a practical framework for determining the ensemble N-representability of a p-body matrix. This is accomplished using a purification strategy that embeds an ensemble state into a pure state defined on an extended Hilbert space, such that the reduced density matrices of the purified state reproduce those of the original ensemble. By iteratively applying variational unitaries to an initial purified state, the proposed algorithm minimizes the Hilbert-Schmidt distance between its p-body reduced density matrix and a specified target p-body matrix, which serves as a measure of the N-representability of the target. This methodology facilitates both error correction of defective ensemble reduced density matrices and quantum-state reconstruction on a quantum computer, offering a route for density-matrix refinement. We validate the algorithm with numerical simulations on systems of two, three, and four electrons in both simple models as well as molecular systems at finite temperature, demonstrating its robustness.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High‐Resolution Projections

This study uses different downscaling techniques and reference observations to investigate the characteristics of extreme storm events over the conterminous United States in historical and a projected future scenario. While previous studies agree on the projected changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes, there is a lack of consensus regarding how their size will change in response to an increase in radiative forcing. Moreover, the influence of different downscaling techniques on their characteristics has not been thoroughly examined. This study employs an ensemble of high‐resolution projections derived from six CMIP6 GCMs, using dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence based downscaling techniques and two reference observations. Overall, we find noticeable differences in the size, average depth, and total precipitation volume of these storms among the climate ensembles in the historical period. Despite these differences in the historical period, we find consistent future changes across various ensembles. We find a robust projected increase in storm size during Winter and Spring but a decrease in size during Summer in the East. Nevertheless, irrespective of changes in their size, extreme storms are projected to intensify across all the ensembles and seasons.

Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ligand efficacy shifts a nuclear receptor conformational ensemble between transcriptionally active and repressive states

Abstract Nuclear receptors (NRs) are thought to dynamically alternate between transcriptionally active and repressive conformations, which are stabilized upon ligand binding. Most NR ligand series exhibit limited bias, primarily consisting of transcriptionally active agonists or neutral antagonists, but not repressive inverse agonists—a limitation that restricts understanding of the functional NR conformational ensemble. Here, we report a NR ligand series for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ) that spans a pharmacological spectrum from repression (inverse agonism) to activation (agonism) where subtle structural modifications switch compound activity. While crystal structures provide snapshots of the fully repressive state, NMR spectroscopy and conformation-activity relationship analysis reveals that compounds within the series shift the PPARγ conformational ensemble between transcriptionally active and repressive conformations that are natively populated in the apo/ligand-free ensemble. Our findings reveal a molecular framework for minimal chemical modifications that enhance PPARγ inverse agonism and elucidate their influence on the dynamic PPARγ conformational ensemble.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inverse design of photonic surfaces via multi fidelity ensemble framework and femtosecond laser processing

We demonstrate a multi-fidelity (MF) machine learning ensemble framework for the inverse design of photonic surfaces, trained on a dataset of 11,759 samples that we fabricate using high throughput femtosecond laser processing. The MF ensemble combines an initial low fidelity model for generating design solutions, with a high fidelity model that refines these solutions through local optimization. The combined MF ensemble can generate multiple disparate sets of laser-processing parameters that can each produce the same target input spectral emissivity with high accuracy (root mean squared errors < 2%). SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis shows transparent model interpretability of the complex relationship between laser parameters and spectral emissivity. Finally, the MF ensemble is experimentally validated by fabricating and evaluating photonic surface designs that it generates for improved efficiency energy harvesting devices. Our approach provides a powerful tool for advancing the inverse design of photonic surfaces in energy harvesting applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spin squeezing in an ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy centres in diamond

Spin-squeezed states provide a seminal example of how the structure of quantum mechanical correlations can be controlled to produce metrologically useful entanglement. These squeezed states have been demonstrated in a wide variety of quantum systems ranging from atoms in optical cavities to trapped ion crystals. By contrast, despite their numerous advantages as practical sensors, spin ensembles in solid-state materials have yet to be controlled with sufficient precision to generate targeted entanglement such as spin squeezing. Here we report the experimental demonstration of spin squeezing in a solid-state spin system. Our experiments are performed on a strongly interacting ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy colour centres in diamond at room temperature, and squeezing (−0.50 ± 0.13 dB) below the noise of uncorrelated spins is generated by the native magnetic dipole–dipole interaction between nitrogen–vacancy centres. To generate and detect squeezing in a solid-state spin system, we overcome several challenges. First, we develop an approach, using interaction-enabled noise spectroscopy, to characterize the quantum projection noise in our system without directly resolving the spin probability distribution. Second, noting that the random positioning of spin defects severely limits the generation of spin squeezing, we implement a pair of strategies aimed at isolating the dynamics of a relatively ordered sub-ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy centres. Furthermore, our results open the door to entanglement-enhanced metrology using macroscopic ensembles of optically active spins in solids.

Atomic and molecular physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spin squeezing of macroscopic nuclear spin ensembles

Spin squeezing has been explored in atomic systems as a tool for quantum sensing, improving experimental sensitivity beyond the spin standard quantum limit for certain measurements. To optimize absolute metrological sensitivity, it is beneficial to consider macroscopic spin ensembles, such as nuclear spins in solids and liquids. Coupling a macroscopic spin ensemble to a parametrically-modulated resonant circuit can create collective spin squeezing by generating spin correlations mediated by the circuit. We analyze the squeezing dynamics in the presence of decoherence and finite spin polarization, showing that achieving 7 dB spin squeezing is feasible in several nuclear spin systems. The metrological benefit of squeezing a macroscopic spin ensemble lies in the suppression of technical noise sources in the spin detection system relative to the spin projection noise. This expands the experimental sensitivity bandwidth when searching for signals of unknown frequency and can improve the resonant signal-to-noise ratio. Squeezing macroscopic spin ensembles may prove to be a useful technique for fundamental physics experiments aimed at detecting spin interactions with oscillating background fields, such as ultralight dark matter. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Boyers, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble Simulations on Leadership Computing Systems

Scientific productivity can be enhanced through workflow management tools, relieving large High Performance Computing (HPC) system users from the tedious tasks of scheduling and designing the complex computational execution of scientific applications. This paper presents a study on the usage of ensemble workflow tools to accelerate science using the Summit and Frontier supercomputing systems. The research aims to connect science domain simulations using Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) supercomputing platforms with ensemble workflow methods in order to accelerate HPC-enabled discovery and boost scientific impact. We present the coupling, porting and optimization of Radical-Cybertools on three applications: Chroma, NAMD and LAMMPS. The tools augment traditional HPC monolithic runs with a pilot scheduler. Lessons-learned are discussed for physics, biology and materials science applications. We discuss intrinsic limitations of coupling and porting ensemble workflow tools to applications that run on large HPC systems. The origins of technical challenges and their solutions developed during the implementation process are discussed. Data management strategies, OLCF’s policies for ensembles, and natively supported workflow tools are also summarized.

Georgiadou, Antigoni [ORNL] (ORCID:000000020977631↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convection-Permitting Ensembles of an Isolated Mountain Thunderstorm during RELAMPAGO/CACTI

Abstract The north–south-oriented Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) ridge in central Argentina is noted for initiating thunderstorms that may grow into intense mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It also initiates more isolated, shorter-lived cells under weaker synoptic forcing. These cells are less impactful than MCSs but may be difficult to predict in convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to their strong sensitivities to subgrid and partially resolved processes. To study the mechanisms and predictability of such cells, convection-permitting ensemble simulations were conducted of an isolated, diurnally forced SDC thunderstorm during Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI)/Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO). The rich observational data facilitated detailed ensemble verification, where dry biases in the surface energy balance and soil moisture were identified. These biases promoted rapid removal of convective inhibition and an early onset of precipitating cells over the SDC that were shallower and weaker than the observed cell. Correction, and then overcorrection, of the soil moisture bias in two successive ensembles was required to rectify the surface energy balance and improve the representation of the SDC cell. Nevertheless, substantial ensemble variability in convective precipitation was found, with some members producing more widespread convection than observed and others producing no deep convection at all. This variability was largely explained by a combination of thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, dominated by a positive sensitivity of convective precipitation to preconvective moist instability over the ridge. Secondary sensitivities were found to low-level upward mass flux and midlevel cross-barrier winds, the latter of which caused gravity waves with elevated downdrafts that tended to suppress incipient clouds.

Lopez, Andres [Department of Atmospheric and Ocean↗
NASA NTRS1986

QSO emission line profiles from Keplerian cloud ensembles

Quasar broad emission line profile calculations are presented for spherically symmetric ensembles of flattened broad-line clouds in elliptical Keplerian orbits. In general, it is found that high eccentricity monoenergetic orbital ensembles tend to provide more acceptable profiles than low eccentricity monoenergetic ensembles. The investigation of elliptical cloud orbits evolving under the influence of Poynting-Robertson drag or drag from an intercloud media shows that acceptable line profiles naturally result from the decay of initially monoenergetic, high eccentricity ensembles independent of the assumed emission anisotropy, provided the drag is not so great as to cause the immediate capture or disruption of the clouds.

Bradley, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Ensemble Data Mining Methods

Ensemble Data Mining Methods, also known as Committee Methods or Model Combiners, are machine learning methods that leverage the power of multiple models to achieve better prediction accuracy than any of the individual models could on their own. The basic goal when designing an ensemble is the same as when establishing a committee of people: each member of the committee should be as competent as possible, but the members should be complementary to one another. If the members are not complementary, Le., if they always agree, then the committee is unnecessary---any one member is sufficient. If the members are complementary, then when one or a few members make an error, the probability is high that the remaining members can correct this error. Research in ensemble methods has largely revolved around designing ensembles consisting of competent yet complementary models.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗