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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploitation of a Validation Hierarchy for Modeling and Simulation

Across engineering there is an evolving need to increase reliance on physics-based simulation to develop, design and optimize engineering systems. This increased reliance on modeling and simulation has highlighted a growing need to transform the confidence that modeling and simulation analysts have in their results into credibility for systems engineers to design and field systems more quickly and with less physical testing. For isolated components of a complex system, where a single discipline may drive product design, this is less of a concern as the relationship is often straightforward and easy to explain. However, when these isolated components are integrated, and are expected to operate in a multi-disciplinary context in which safety critical systems are involved, new concepts and model assurance standards are required. In this paper we address this challenge by showing how a model validation hierarchy can be exploited to identify those model validation experiments that will contribute most to increasing confidence and credibility of modeling and simulation predictions. The approach that is adopted contains four main steps. The first step is the construction of a model validation hierarchy that links subsystems, assemblies, and components to a hierarchy of physical experiments that can be used support model validation. This hierarchy connects the concerns of systems engineers to those of the modeling and simulation analyst in a clear and logical way. The structure and content of this hierarchy is then used in a second step to establish which physical phenomena have the greatest impact on overall system performance metrics. A gap analysis technique, based upon modeling and simulation concerns, is then used to prioritize the important physical phenomenon. Unfortunately, a common outcome of such gap analyses is the identification of many important gaps and so, in the final step of our process, we advocate the use of a global sensitivity analysis as a means to complete the prioritization.

Verification and Validation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economically Viable Intermediate to Long Duration Hydrogen Energy Storage Solutions for Fossil Fueled Assets

This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management of U.S. Department of Energy under Funding Opportunity Announcement Number DE-FOA-0002332 “Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation”. The work aimed to explore and advance an innovative hydrogen energy storage system – the synergistically integrated hydrogen energy storage system (SIHES) – that has the following characteristics: • Compatible with existing or new coal and gas fuel electricity generation units, • best suited for intermediate to long duration energy storage, from 12 hours to weeks even months, and • capable of storing energy at the utility scale – hundreds of MWh to GWh energy storage with power output level in tens to hundreds of MW. Preliminary front-end engineering design (Pre-FEED) studies was carried out to develop and refine a site-specific SIHES as peaking power generation units (so named as HyPeaker) as the first market entry point, to demonstrate both the technical feasibility and the economic viability to integrate the HyPeaker “within the fence” of a fossil power plant. This specific site was TVA’s Johnsonville Combustion Turbine Plant. The HyPeaker was designed and engineered to integrate with a 60MW aeroderivative gas turbine unit already available at TVA’s Johnsonville site. This site-specific HyPeaker consists of an alkaline electrolyzer to produce hydrogen from CO 2 free electricity sources, an innovative low-cost high-pressure hydrogen storage system (Big-Ton) and the aero gas turbine to generate electricity using blend of hydrogen and natural gas. A holistic system level technoeconomic analysis tool specific to HyPeaker was developed to optimize the engineering design of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker for cost and performance. The optimal design and specification of the Johnsonville site-specific HyPeaker are the following: • Alkaline electrolyzer: 3MW • Big-Ton storage vessel: 11,000kg H 2 at 3000psi. • 4-stage diaphragm hydrogen compressor: 55kg-H 2 /hr from 150psi to 3000psi. The HyPeaker is designed to provide sufficient hydrogen for 90% continuous operation of the HyPeaker. All major components have design life of 30 years. The capex of HyPeaker is estimated at $\$$7.1M. This included $\$$1.5M for the electrolyzer, $\$$5.6M for the storage vessel and compressor. The cost of aero gas turbine was included as it is already available at the site. Key findings are: • HyPeaker can be designed, manufactured, installed and integrated with the fossil power plants, with sub-systems and components commercially available on the market today, even when it is scaled up to an order of magnitude larger than the one at the Johnsonville site. HyPeaker is a technologically viable solution to cover a wide range of energy storage duration needs, from daily peaking operation to seasonal shifting for fossil fueled assets. • The cost advantage of SCCV based Big-Ton H 2 storage vessel made it possible to “oversize” the H 2 storage subsystem to achieve overall system level cost optimization. The benefits are two-fold. First, it allows to significantly reduce the capacity and cost of electrolyzer by spreading H 2 production over a much longer period of time when the fuel cost for electricity production is low. Second, it allows to balance the hydrogen production and usage shift over weeks to months to meet the peak demands. As such, the capital cost of HyPeaker system using the Big-Ton was less than half of the cost of a system with today’s steel tube based H 2 storage system. The HyPeaker has even better cost advantage Li-ion battery based energy storage system. The estimated capital cost of Li-Ion battery system would be at $\$$38M, under the same projected 20-year electricity generation profile of the Johnsonville site. This is over 5 times more expensive than the HyPeaker system. • Since industry scale energy storage systems do not have 100% energy conversion and storage efficiency, energy storage systems using fossil fuel generated electricity would increase the CO 2 emission. This is particularly the case for HyPeaker due to its low round trip efficiency. Therefore, a more sensible solution would be to the excessive or curtailed electricity from CO 2 emission free sources such as solar farms, wind farms or nuclear power plants, to produce hydrogen, and integrate them with the HyPeaker. Electricity from TVA’s nuclear power plants was used for the Johnsonville HyPeaker. • The economic viability of HyPeaker is expected to be further improved when global supply chains are taken into consideration. For the same Johnsonville site specific HyPeaker, the capex would be reduced to ~$\$$3.6M from ~$\$$7.1M, and the added LCOE is reduced to ~$\$$85/MWh. With the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the cost of domestically produced HyPeaker sub-systems would be at the level of today’s global suppliers. Since the peaking units generally operate at peak usage period, thereby demanding higher price, the projected $\$$85/MWh LCOE would be within the realm of financial viability for utility operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Active Optimization Approach for Rapid and Efficient Design Space Exploration Using Ensemble Machine Learning

In this work, a novel design optimization technique based on active learning, which involves dynamic exploration and exploitation of the design space of interest using an ensemble of machine learning algorithms, is presented. In this approach, a hybrid methodology incorporating an explorative weak learner (regularized basis function model) that fits high-level information about the response surface and an exploitative strong learner (based on committee machine) that fits finer details around promising regions identified by the weak learner is employed. For each design iteration, an aristocratic approach is used to select a set of nominees, where points that meet a threshold merit value as predicted by the weak learner are selected for evaluation. In addition to these points, the global optimum as predicted by the strong learner is also evaluated to enable rapid convergence to the actual global optimum once the most promising region has been identified by the optimizer. Additionally, this methodology is first tested by applying it to the optimization of a two-dimensional multi-modal surface and, subsequently, to a complex internal combustion (IC) engine combustion optimization case with nine control parameters related to fuel injection, initial thermodynamic conditions, and in-cylinder flow. It is found that the new approach significantly lowers the number of function evaluations that are needed to reach the optimum design configuration (by up to 80%) when compared to conventional optimization techniques, such as particle swarm and genetic algorithm-based optimization techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1986

Configuration evaluation and criteria plan. Volume 1: System trades study and design methodology plan (preliminary). Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) configuration study

The System Trades Study and Design Methodology Plan is used to conduct trade studies to define the combination of Space Shuttle Main Engine features that will optimize candidate engine configurations. This is accomplished by using vehicle sensitivities and engine parametric data to establish engine chamber pressure and area ratio design points for candidate engine configurations. Engineering analyses are to be conducted to refine and optimize the candidate configurations at their design points. The optimized engine data and characteristics are then evaluated and compared against other candidates being considered. The Evaluation Criteria Plan is then used to compare and rank the optimized engine configurations on the basis of cost.

Bair, E. K.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Aerodynamic design optimization of a fuel efficient high-performance, single-engine, business airplane

A design study has been conducted to optimize a single-engine airplane for a high-performance cruise mission. The mission analyzed included a cruise speed of about 300 knots, a cruise range of about 1300 nautical miles, and a six-passenger payload (5340 N (1200 lb)). The purpose of the study is to investigate the combinations of wing design, engine, and operating altitude required for the mission. The results show that these mission performance characteristics can be achieved with fuel efficiencies competitive with present-day high-performance, single- and twin-engine, business airplanes. It is noted that relaxation of the present Federal Aviation Regulation, Part 23, stall-speed requirement for single-engine airplanes facilitates the optimization of the airplane for fuel efficiency.

Holmes, B. J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismic Isolation of Major Advanced Reactor Systems for Economic Improvement and Safety Assurance

Advanced reactor concepts currently under development in the United States [e.g., the High-Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) of X-Energy and the Molten Chloride Fast Reactor (MCFR) of TerraPower] are striving to improve the economics of nuclear power primarily by using passively and ‘walk-away’ safe technologies in the reactor. The recently published report, ‘Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World’ by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Institute (MIT EI) has shown that a significant contributor to the capital cost of NPPs is the ‘civil works’ i.e., the construction of the balance of plant (BoP: all SSCs except those involved in power generation, e.g., reactor vessel) such as the buildings, containment dome, foundation, etc., which amount to almost half of the overnight capital cost. The report suggests that using advanced construction technologies such as seismic isolation and high-performance concrete to significantly reduce the capital costs of advanced reactors. This report demonstrates the application of two cost-cutting solutions on advanced reactor designs that are currently under development. These solutions include, (1) seismic base isolation, and (2) risk- and cost-based seismic design optimization including seismic isolation of individual components.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

Aerospace engineering design by systematic decomposition and multilevel optimization

This paper describes a method for systematic analysis and optimization of large engineering systems, e.g., aircraft, by decomposition of a large task into a set of smaller, self-contained subtasks that can be solved concurrently. The subtasks may be arranged in many hierarchical levels with the assembled system at the top level. Analyses are carried out in each subtask using inputs received from other subtasks, and are followed by optimizations carried out from the bottom up. Each optimization at the lower levels is augmented by analysis of its sensitivity to the inputs received from other subtasks to account for the couplings among the subtasks in a formal manner. The analysis and optimization operations alternate iteratively until they converge to a system design whose performance is maximized with all constraints satisfied. The method, which is still under development, is tentatively validated by test cases in structural applications and an aircraft configuration optimization. It is pointed out that the method is intended to be compatible with the typical engineering organization and the modern technology of distributed computing.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Novel geometries for air-cooled condensation of ammonia-water mixtures

An analytical and experimental investigation of air-cooled condensers for small-scale ammonia-water absorption heat pumps is presented. Conventional round-tube corrugated fin design and a novel multi-pass tube array design are considered for a condenser operating at severe ambient conditions within a compact footprint. Segmental heat and mass transfer models are developed to gain a deeper understanding of the characteristics of each design. Predicted heat duties are within 5% of the measured values. The limitations of correlations to predict air-side pressure drop in corrugated fins are identified. The performance of the novel multi-pass tube array condenser was comparable to that of conventional condensers, but is determined to be air-side limited throughout length of the heat exchanger. An improved multi-pass condenser design with fins for increased air-side area is proposed using the insights gained from the modeling and experiments. In closing this design meets the heat duty requirements at severe ambient conditions, while decreasing the size of the heat exchanger by 33%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

Aerospace engineering design by systematic decomposition and multilevel optimization

A method for systematic analysis and optimization of large engineering systems, by decomposition of a large task into a set of smaller subtasks that is solved concurrently is described. The subtasks may be arranged in hierarchical levels. Analyses are carried out in each subtask using inputs received from other subtasks, and are followed by optimizations carried out from the bottom up. Each optimization at the lower levels is augmented by analysis of its sensitivity to the inputs received from other subtasks to account for the couplings among the subtasks in a formal manner. The analysis and optimization operations alternate iteratively until they converge to a system design whose performance is maximized with all constraints satisfied. The method, which is still under development, is tentatively validated by test cases in structural applications and an aircraft configuration optimization.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Research on inverse, hybrid and optimization problems in engineering sciences with emphasis on turbomachine aerodynamics: Review of Chinese advances

Advances in inverse design and optimization theory in engineering fields in China are presented. Two original approaches, the image-space approach and the variational approach, are discussed in terms of turbomachine aerodynamic inverse design. Other areas of research in turbomachine aerodynamic inverse design include the improved mean-streamline (stream surface) method and optimization theory based on optimal control. Among the additional engineering fields discussed are the following: the inverse problem of heat conduction, free-surface flow, variational cogeneration of optimal grid and flow field, and optimal meshing theory of gears.

Liu, Gao-Lian↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing a Framework for Solving Multiobjective Simulation Optimization Problems

Multiobjective simulation optimization (MOSO) problems are optimization problems with multiple conflicting objectives, where evaluation of at least one of the objectives depends on a black-box numerical code or real-world experiment, which we refer to as a simulation. Whereas an extensive body of research is dedicated to developing new algorithms and methods for solving these and related problems, it is challenging and time-consuming to integrate these techniques into real-world production-ready solvers. This is partly because of the diversity and complexity of modern state-of-the-art MOSO algorithms and methods and partly because of the complexity and specificity of many real-world problems and their corresponding computing environments. The complexity of this problem is only compounded when introducing potentially complex and/or domain-specific surrogate-modeling techniques, problem formulations, design spaces, and data acquisition functions. Here, this paper carefully surveys the current state of the art in MOSO algorithms, techniques, and solvers, as well as problem types and computational environments where MOSO is commonly applied. We then present several key challenges in the design of a parallel multiobjective simulation optimization framework (ParMOO) and how they have been addressed. Finally, we provide two case studies demonstrating how customized ParMOO solvers can be quickly built and deployed to solve real-world MOSO problems.

engineering design optimization↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the scaling of wind turbine rotors

This paper formulates laws for scaling wind turbine rotors. Although the analysis is general, the article primarily focuses on the subscaling problem, i.e., on the design of a smaller-sized model that mimics a full-scale machine. The present study considers both the steady-state and transient response cases, including the effects of aerodynamic, elastic, inertial, and gravitational forces. The analysis reveals the changes to physical characteristics induced by a generic change of scale, indicates which characteristics can be matched faithfully by a subscaled model, and states the conditions that must be fulfilled for desired matchings to hold. Based on the scaling laws formulated here, the article continues by considering the problem of designing scaled rotors that match desired indicators of a full-scale reference. To better illustrate the challenges implicit in scaling and the necessary tradeoffs and approximations, two different approaches are contrasted. The first consists in a straightforward geometric zooming. An analysis of the consequences of zooming reveals that, although apparently simple, this method is often not applicable in practice, because of physical and manufacturing limitations. This motivates the formulation of scaling as a constrained optimal aerodynamic and structural matching problem of wide applicability. Practical illustrations are given considering the scaling of a large reference 10 MW wind turbine of about 180 m in diameter down to three different sizes of 54, 27, and 2.8 m. Results indicate that, with the proper choices, even models characterized by very significant scaling factors can accurately match several key performance indicators. Additionally, when an exact match is not possible, relevant trends can at least be captured.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Optimization of Air-Breathing Propulsion Engine Concepts

Air-breathing propulsion engines play an important role in the development of both civil and military aircraft Design optimization of such engines can lead to higher power, or more thrust for less fuel consumption. A multimission propulsion engine design can be modeled mathematically as a multivariable global optimization problem, with a sequence of subproblems, which are specific to the mission events defined through Mach number, altitude, and power setting combinations.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

ADS: A FORTRAN program for automated design synthesis: Version 1.10

A new general-purpose optimization program for engineering design is described. ADS (Automated Design Synthesis - Version 1.10) is a FORTRAN program for solution of nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The program is segmented into three levels: strategy, optimizer, and one-dimensional search. At each level, several options are available so that a total of over 100 possible combinations can be created. Examples of available strategies are sequential unconstrained minimization, the Augmented Lagrange Multiplier method, and Sequential Linear Programming. Available optimizers include variable metric methods and the Method of Feasible Directions as examples, and one-dimensional search options include polynomial interpolation and the Golden Section method as examples. Emphasis is placed on ease of use of the program. All information is transferred via a single parameter list. Default values are provided for all internal program parameters such as convergence criteria, and the user is given a simple means to over-ride these, if desired.

Vanderplaats, G. N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

ADS: A FORTRAN program for automated design synthesis, version 1.00

A new general-purpose optimization program for engineering design is described. ADS-1 (Automated Design Synthesis - Version 1) is a FORTRAN program for solution of nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The program is segmented into three levels, being strategy, optimizer, and one-dimensional search. At each level, several options are available so that a total of over 100 possible combinations can be created. Examples of available strategies are sequential unconstrained minimization, the Augmented Lagrange Multiplier method, and Sequential Linear Programming. Available optimizers include variable metric methods and the Method of Feasible Directions as examples and one-dimensional search options include polynomial interpolation and the Golden Section method as examples. Emphasis is placed on ease of use of the program. All information is transferred via a single parameter list. Default values are provided for all internal program parameters such as convergence criteria, and the user is given a simple means to over-ride these, if desired. The program is demonstrated with a simple structural design example.

Vanderplaats, G. N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Cascade Optimization Strategy for Aircraft and Air-Breathing Propulsion System Concepts

Design optimization for subsonic and supersonic aircraft and for air-breathing propulsion engine concepts has been accomplished by soft-coupling the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) and the NASA Engine Performance Program analyzer (NEPP), to the NASA Lewis multidisciplinary optimization tool COMETBOARDS. Aircraft and engine design problems, with their associated constraints and design variables, were cast as nonlinear optimization problems with aircraft weight and engine thrust as the respective merit functions. Because of the diversity of constraint types and the overall distortion of the design space, the most reliable single optimization algorithm available in COMETBOARDS could not produce a satisfactory feasible optimum solution. Some of COMETBOARDS' unique features, which include a cascade strategy, variable and constraint formulations, and scaling devised especially for difficult multidisciplinary applications, successfully optimized the performance of both aircraft and engines. The cascade method has two principal steps: In the first, the solution initiates from a user-specified design and optimizer, in the second, the optimum design obtained in the first step with some random perturbation is used to begin the next specified optimizer. The second step is repeated for a specified sequence of optimizers or until a successful solution of the problem is achieved. A successful solution should satisfy the specified convergence criteria and have several active constraints but no violated constraints. The cascade strategy available in the combined COMETBOARDS, FLOPS, and NEPP design tool converges to the same global optimum solution even when it starts from different design points. This reliable and robust design tool eliminates manual intervention in the design of aircraft and of air-breathing propulsion engines where it eases the cycle analysis procedures. The combined code is also much easier to use, which is an added benefit. This paper describes COMETBOARDS and its cascade strategy and illustrates the capability of the combined design tool through the optimization of a subsonic aircraft and a high-bypass-turbofan wave-rotor-topped engine.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗