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Results for “energy uncertainty”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Battery Energy Storage Control: Modeling Uncertainty and Applications.
Abstract not provided.
Battery Energy Storage Control: Modeling Uncertainty and Applications (PhD Defense Presentation).
Abstract not provided.
Wind Energy Validation Roadmap and Uncertainty Quantification Progress.
Abstract not provided.
Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures
Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.
Uncertainty in Analyzed Water and Energy Budgets at Continental Scales
Operational analyses and retrospective-analyses provide all the physical terms of mater and energy budgets, guided by the assimilation of atmospheric observations. However, there is significant reliance on the numerical models, and so, uncertainty in the budget terms is always present. Here, we use a recently developed data set consisting of a mix of 10 analyses (both operational and retrospective) to quantify the uncertainty of analyzed water and energy budget terms for GEWEX continental-scale regions, following the evaluation of Dr. John Roads using individual reanalyses data sets.
The role of collisional energy transfer in the thermal and prompt dissociation of 1-methyl allyl
Collisional energy transfer plays a pivotal role in a-priori calculations of the pressure-dependent rate constants obtained from a master equation. However, accurate determinations of collisional energy transfer parameters are rare and so most kinetic studies rely on best-fits of these parameters to experimental measurements (if available) or estimates guided from literature studies. In this work, we have quantified the effect of the uncertainty in energy transfer parameters on the thermal and prompt dissociation kinetics of a resonance stabilized radical, 1-methyl allyl (1MA), of relevance to the combustion of 1- and 2-butene isomers. Simulations using literature kinetics models were performed to assess the impact of these uncertainties on flame propagation and speciation data in laminar flames of 1- and 2-butene. Analyses of the uncertainty propagated by the energy transfer parameters for 1MA dissociation to the flame simulations, in particular the laminar flame speed, indicate an intricate coupling between the kinetics of 1MA dissociation (chain propagation) and its reaction with H-atoms (chain-termination). Ab-initio based theoretical calculations were also performed to obtain pressure-dependent kinetics for the reaction of 1MA with H-atoms. Lastly, theoretically calculated energy transfer parameters were used to best characterize the kinetics and branching between the chain propagating 1MA dissociation and the chain-terminating reaction 1MA + H.
A Novel Technique of Extracting UCN Decay Lifetime from Storage Chamber Measurements Dominated by Scattering Losses
The neutron’s lifetime is a critical parameter in the standard model. Its measurements, particularly measurements using both beamline and ultracold neutron storage techniques, have revealed significant tension. In this work, we review the status of the tension between various measurements, especially in light of the insights provided by the β-decay correlation measurements. We revisit the lifetime measurement in a material storage chamber, dominated by losses from scattering off the walls of the storage chamber. The neutron energy spectra and associated uncertainties were, for the first time, well-characterized using storage data alone. Such models have applications in the extraction of the mean time between wall bounces, which is a key parameter for neutron storage disappearance experiments in search of neutron oscillation. A comparison between the loss model and the number of neutrons stored in a single chamber allowed us to extract a neutron lifetime of τn*=880(+158/−78)stat.(+230/−114)sys.s (68.3% C.I.). Though the uncertainty of this lifetime is not competitive with currently available measurements, the highlight of this work is that we precisely identified the systematic sources of uncertainty that contribute to the neutron lifetime measurements in material storage bottles, namely from the uncertainty in the energy spectra, as well as from the storage chamber surface parameters of the Fermi potential and loss per bounce. In doing so, we highlight the underestimation of the uncertainties in the previous Monte Carlo simulations of experiments using the technique of ultracold neutron storage in material bottles.
Regional Energy Budget Over Ocean Derived From Satellite Observations
The uncertainty in regional surface energy flux derived by summing all energy flux components is known to be large. In addition, quantifying the regional energy flux uncertainty considering all flux component uncertainties is very difficult. However, this approach is needed to understand regional energy flux components and how these components change with time. The CERES surface radiation budget data product, Edition 4.1 EBAF combined with reanalysis products was used to assess regional surface energy budget over ocean in earlier studies. The CERES team revised the data product and released Edition 4.2 EBAF product in February 2023. Prominent differences from the earlier edition are: 1) no geostationary satellite derived cloud properties are used for surface irradiance computations and 2) MERRA-2 provides temperature and humidity profiles. Combined with surface turbulent fluxes from various products, this study uses the revised EBAF surface irradiances and addresses regional energy budget over ocean. In addition, the uncertainty in regional surface radiation and energy budgets is discussed.
Investigation of Benchmark $k$ eff Sensitivity and Uncertainty for 239 Pu fission in Specific Energy Ranges
Nuclear data at intermediate energies (from 1 to 100s of keV) are evaluated based on scarce differential data and theory unable to capture physics’ expected structure. There is also a lack of integral data. This is a known deficiency and is challenging to address. Calculated effective multiplication factor, k eff , values for intermediate energy experiments are ~25× further from experiment than for fast energies and are often well outside the experimental uncertainties. The goal of the PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements) project is to significantly re duce the uncertainties of intermediate energy nuclear data for 239 Pu. To this end, PARADIGM simultaneously optimizes experiments at both the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) and National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The combined set of data will inform new intermediate-energy nuclear data. By execution of differential and integral experiments, establishment of new theory, and undertaking nuclear data evaluation in parallel, the timeline to deliver improved nuclear data to users will be reduced significantly that is to three years. For the PARADIGM project, it was decided to optimize an integral experiment for two neutron energy ranges, within the full intermediate energy range. The low energy range goes from 1 to 30 keV, while the higher energy range goes from 30 to 600 keV. This work focuses on nuclear data sensitivities and uncertainties for 239 Pu fission for existing experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). When designing new experiments, it is important to understand what benchmarks currently exist. For a more traditional experiment design (in which a specific application model(s) exists), comparisons would be made between the application model(s) and existing benchmarks. For PARADIGM, there is no specific application model, but instead the specific nuclear data reaction and energy ranges of interest can be explored for existing benchmarks.
Long-Term Assessment of Commercial Building Energy and Carbon Emissions in the Northwestern Region Under Future Weather Trend
The future climate significantly impacts building performance and increases uncertainties in energy simulations. A rising temperature trend is expected to heighten cooling loads during summer and result in more carbon emissions. Understanding the impact of future climate on building performance is significant for policymakers to make informed decisions. Building retrofit measures can improve building energy efficiency and reduce operational carbon emissions, yet their effects under future climate conditions have not been fully investigated so far. Thus, we proposed an assessment methodology for evaluating long-term energy consumption and operational carbon reduction potential using a building stock dataset. For this study, commercial buildings in the northwestern (NW) region were utilized to assess the impacts of future climate and building retrofit. In addition, we selected Montana with a cold and dry climate as an example to analyze and discuss the carbon emission reduction potential in buildings. The main findings are: (1) Under future climate trends, changes in energy use intensity (EUI) will fluctuate due to variations in heating and cooling degree-days (HDDs and CDDs) and increasing HDDs will lead to increasing EUI. (2) After applying annual building retrofitting, the long-term EUI reduction potential of buildings in the NW region will decrease with the increasing retrofitting degree, and the short-term EUI reduction potential will be impacted by the change of heating and cooling degree days. (3) In Montana, the long-term carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitted buildings will decrease under future climate trends with the increasing renewable energy penetration.
An Investigation of Strategies for Sensing Window Attachment Position: Survey of Candidate Technologies, Evaluation, and Deployment Recommendations
While windows are desirable feature in buildings for views, daylighting, and aesthetics, it is important to recognize that windows are a major contributor to a building’s energy load. Interior window coverings, such as shades and blinds, can help improve the energy performance of windows without sacrificing the benefits; however, while appropriate use of window coverings provide the potential for energy savings, there is little consensus regarding how occupants typically use these window attachments, which sometimes puts into question how much energy they actually save in an occupied home. Automated shading control strategies can reduce the uncertainty of energy savings; however, users can overwrite pre-defined schedules or write their own shade control programs to reach their personal comfort and privacy goals. Because it is difficult to identify how occupants interact with window shades, it is difficult to identify the energy savings potential of blinds. To address this problem, this study was developed to identify a candidate sensor that can be deployed to sense blind position. The intended application for this sensor is deployment in energy efficiency field studies so that shade usage can be measured to better understand results and identify the energy impact of specific window attachment technologies.
Systematic Uncertainties in the NOvA \nu_\mu-Disappearance Analysis
As the NOvA long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment takes more data, systematic uncertainty begins to more heavily impact the oscillation analyses. The largest effects are calibration on calorimetric energy, detector modeling on muon energy scale, and near-detector pileup on normalization of the far-detector expectation. Cross-section systematics will be discussed in another poster. Detailed studies have justified previous systematics as too conservative and suggested smaller values. Focused study of detector modeling using dE/dx and external measurements constrain the calibration and energy scale uncertainties. A novel technique is used to assess the impact of activity from neutrino activity piling up over signal, where a simulated neutrino is overlaid into both data and simulation. The difference in efficiency of selecting that single neutrino among data and simulated spills then dominates the normalization systematic.
Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint
Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.
Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling
Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.
Calibration of the charge and energy loss per unit length of the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber using muons and protons
In this paper, we describe a method used to calibrate the position- and time-dependent response of the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber anode wires to ionization particle energy loss. The method makes use of crossing cosmic-ray muons to partially correct anode wire signals for multiple effects as a function of time and position, including cross-connected TPC wires, space charge effects, electron attachment to impurities, diffusion, and recombination. The overall energy scale is then determined using fully-contained beam-induced muons originating and stopping in the active region of the detector. Using this method, we obtain an absolute energy scale uncertainty of 2% in data. We use stopping protons to further refine the relation between the measured charge and the energy loss for highly-ionizing particles. This data-driven detector calibration improves both the measurement of total deposited energy and particle identification based on energy loss per unit length as a function of residual range. As an example, the proton selection efficiency is increased by 2% after detector calibration.
Bayes goes fast: Uncertainty quantification for a covariant energy density functional emulated by the reduced basis method
A covariant energy density functional is calibrated using a principled Bayesian statistical framework informed by experimental binding energies and charge radii of several magic and semi-magic nuclei. The Bayesian sampling required for the calibration is enabled by the emulation of the high-fidelity model through the implementation of a reduced basis method (RBM)—a set of dimensionality reduction techniques that can speed up demanding calculations involving partial differential equations by several orders of magnitude. The RBM emulator we build—using only 100 evaluations of the high-fidelity model—is able to accurately reproduce the model calculations in tens of milliseconds on a personal computer, an increase in speed of nearly a factor of 3,300 when compared to the original solver. Besides the analysis of the posterior distribution of parameters, we present model calculations for masses and radii with properly estimated uncertainties. We also analyze the model correlation between the slope of the symmetry energy L and the neutron skin of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. The straightforward implementation and outstanding performance of the RBM makes it an ideal tool for assisting the nuclear theory community in providing reliable estimates with properly quantified uncertainties of physical observables. Such uncertainty quantification tools will become essential given the expected abundance of data from the recently inaugurated and future experimental and observational facilities.
Evaluating Energy Efficiency Opportunities from Connected and Automated Vehicle Deployments Coupled with Shared Mobility in California
Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can be considered to be a disruptive transportation technology, with the potential to significantly improve overall transportation system efficiency; however, CAVs may increase induce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and bring on greater energy consumption. Further, shared mobility is another disruptive transportation event that is reshaping our travel patterns. The primary goal of this project was to extensively collect data from vehicles and associated infrastructure equipped with CAV technologies from both real-world experiments and simulation studies mainly deployed in California, and develop a comprehensive framework for evaluating energy efficiency opportunities from large-scale (e.g., statewide) introduction of CAVs and a wide deployment of shared mobility systems in a variety of scenarios. To quantify the combined impact of CAV and shared mobility on travel behavior, traffic performance, and energy efficiency, a unique mesoscopic simulation-based model was developed for mobility and energy efficiency evaluation considering these disruptive transportation technologies. As a complement to existing studies on nationwide evaluation of CAVs’ energy impacts, this project was focused on data collection efforts and CAV applications under congested traffic environments that are frequently experienced on a massive scale across the major metropolitan areas in California. Extensive real-world data collection supplemented with simulation studies were conducted to cover a variety of CAV and shared mobility scenarios, particularly on scenarios less-explored in the existing research. Another key component of this project was to consider the interaction between different CAV technologies and shared mobility models, and the compound effect on energy efficiency. A comprehensive modeling suite was developed to quantify the impact of new mobility technologies on travel behavior and traffic performance. The developed modeling framework includes an energy intensity module, mode choice module and activity generation module that are integrated into an agent-based BEAM simulation platform to perform impact analysis based on a variety of scenarios. In addition, the RouteE model has been upgraded to incorporate the impact of CAVs on traffic flow, VMT and energy intensity, using micro-simulation data collected from both freeways and urban arterials. A novel fundamental influencing factor (FIF) mode choice model was developed to link CAV and shared mobility components with travel behaviors, and adapted into the BEAM-centered model framework. A statewide energy inventory was constructed under various CAV technology deployment scenarios by incorporating datasets and models for predicting vehicle market share and vehicle usage, which are tightly associated with the penetration of shared mobility systems. Based applying this modeling suite to a calibrated network in Riverside California, it was found that cooperative automated driving in general will improve mobility, but automated vehicles, even when deployed in a shared autonomous fleet, will likely bring an increase of VMT (up to 36%) due to mode shifts and deadheading. Ride-hailing vehicles typically have better energy efficiency and a higher share of electric vehicles, which helps offset the negative impact from VMT increases when estimating the system-level energy consumption. In general, simulation results show a 6% increase in energy consumption for the scenarios with an increasing shift to ride-hailing modes. The statewide analysis based on the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) sample data is consistent with the findings from the Riverside network and validate the developed clustering-prediction modeling methodology. The outcomes from this project will help close the knowledge gap on recognizing the potential performance and energy impacts of a broad deployment of CAV and shared mobility technologies across a wide range of roadway infrastructure with varying levels of congestion. Results from this project: 1) will support policymakers in steering CAV development and deployment towards an energy favorable direction; 2) reduce uncertainties in estimating energy saving opportunities from new mobility technologies and services; 3) increase the confidence of CAV technology investors both on the infrastructure side (i.e., transportation agencies) and on the vehicle side (i.e., OEMs); and 4) expedite the deployment of energy-efficient CAV and shared mobility applications.