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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Managing changes in peak demand from building and transportation electrification with energy efficiency [Slides]

The Department of Energy funded Berkeley Lab to provide technical assistance to two municipal utilities on how energy efficiency and demand flexibility can mitigate the peak demand impacts of building and transportation electrification. Berkeley Lab worked with these utilities, Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) and Fort Collins Utilities, to identify research questions that supported their planning needs. For both utilities, Berkeley Lab developed scenario-based load forecasts that considered baseline and high-efficiency building electrification. For SMUD, the forecast also explored the sensitivity of peak demand to extreme weather (a winter cold snap) at the system-level. For Fort Collins Utilities, the forecast addressed the impacts of low, medium, and high levels of building and transportation technology adoption on select distribution feeders. Berkeley Lab is also developing a guidance document for utilities that will draw on lessons learned from the technical assistance and provide a framework for conducting similar analyses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

ResStock Technical Reference Documentation (V.3.3.0)

ResStock™ is the best-in-class building stock energy model for simulating and publishing energy use, utility bills, and greenhouse gas emissions from the residential sector of the U.S. ResStock answers two primary questions: (1) How is energy used in the U.S. residential building stock? and (2) What is the timeseries aggregate impact of energy technologies? Specifically, ResStock quantifies energy use across geographical locations, demographic groups, building types, fuels, end uses, and time of day. Additionally, it details the impact of efficiency or electrification measures: total changes in the amount of energy used by measure; where or in what use cases efficiency or electrification upgrade measures save energy; when or at what times of day savings occur; and which building stock or demographic segments have the biggest savings potential. This model, and the datasets it produces, are foundational to identifying pathways to affordable and equitable decarbonization of the U.S. residential buildings sector.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Insights from NREL’s Electrification Futures and LA100 Studies

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Equitable Electrification Analysis for Existing Buildings in Richmond, CA

Over a 12-month period beginning in July 2022, NREL coordinated with a coalition of staff from the City of Richmond and local community organizations to develop and conduct a city-wide building energy use analysis and develop and assess the impacts of various approaches to electrifying and improving energy efficiency of all existing residential and commercial buildings within the city limits. Building on data available through NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ analysis tools, the authors looked at potential modeled impacts of building envelope and electrification upgrades on five indicators identified by the community coalition: building energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, utility bill charges and cost-effectiveness, employment impacts, and health and safety impacts. This report summarizes the findings of that research and analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Chapter 4. Demand-Side Development

This chapter focuses on recent developments on the demand side of the electricity system in the United States and beyond. After decades of slow-moving change in power system technology, business models, regulatory structures, and even financing schemes, changes on the demand side are accelerating rapidly. These changes are also more tightly linking the supply side with the demand side. This chapter provides high-level summaries of traditional subjects like demand-side management, which includes energy efficiency and demand response, and then transition to a subject that has gathered increasing attention as the most dynamic change likely to impact power systems in the coming decades: beneficial electrification. In each case, we attempt to address the impacts on system flexibility to the degree possible. These demand-side subjects are widely considered essential elements of a clean grid strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Equitable Electrification Analysis for Existing Buildings in Richmond, CA [Slides]

Since June 2022, NREL has provided technical assistance in the form of research and analysis in order to support the City of Richmond in identifying strategies to equitably transition its existing buildings from reliance on natural gas to clean electricity. Building on data from the ResStock and ComStock tools, the analysis looked at the potential impacts of building envelope and electrification improvements on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, residential utility bills, jobs and employment, and indoor air quality. This presentation summarizes the findings from that research and analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power System Operational Impacts of Electric Vehicle Dynamic Wireless Charging

The electrification of the transportation sector poses an opportunity for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. Electric vehicle (EV) charging through dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), known as roadway electrification, could shift EV demand profiles to better coincide with renewable electricity generation. However, this would be a very large new load and few studies evaluate the regional impacts of DWPT charging in a power transmission system. This paper defines methods that address dataset generation for passenger vehicle trips and models to evaluate regional impacts for this emerging technology. Household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data form localized EV demand profiles through discrete-event simulation. This data serves as exogenous inputs for a Production Cost Model (PCM) of a synthetic transmission system based on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas's (ERCOT) network. EV charging methods are compared for both a 2018 baseline generation mixture and a high-renewable generation case incorporating 20 GW of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The PCM employs unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) models to compare financial, environmental, and grid reliability impacts from EV charging across passenger EV adoption levels. In-transit charging could reduce grid operational costs by as much as 1.49%, with up to $13.7B saved in annual vehicle operational costs for consumers compared to gas-powered vehicles. Health impacts analysis from power plant and vehicle tailpipe emissions from this study show net health benefits increase by 40% for in-transit charging coupled with high renewable generation. Renewable resources provide an avenue for cost-effective in-transit charging with reduced emissions. The combination of dataset generation and open-source power system modeling establish a foundation for the holistic evaluation of regional DWPT impacts.

dynamic wireless power transfer↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impacts of micro- and mild- hybrid vehicle technologies on fleetwide fuel economy and electrification

Micro- and mild-hybridization (jointly labeled as M-HEV) is gaining popularity as a cost-effective technology for fuel economy improvement, but whether and how M-HEV may compete against less efficient conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), more efficient full hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is not well understood. As such, this study aims at evaluating the impact of the market adoption of M-HEV on the average fuel economy of the new vehicle fleet and on the sales share of PEVs. The study reviews recent sales trends and market forecasts, and uses published estimates of manufacturing cost and fuel economy of M-HEV with an existing discrete choice model (Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies or MA3T) to project the market penetration and impacts of M-HEV under different scenarios of M-HEV choice positions, designed to enhance conclusion robustness. It is found that among engine-based powertrain choices, micro-HEV appears to be the most cost-effective, followed by ICEVs, mild-HEV and finally full HEVs. M-HEV technologies are likely to improve fleetwide average fuel economy without significant adverse effects on sales of plug-in electric vehicles, and are likely to remain highly competitive outside PEVs through 2050.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrifying education: Exploring the electrification potential of U.S. School bus fleets

We analyze the operations of 270 diesel school buses across the United States to assess their electrification potential and evaluate the impact of various charging strategies on electricity demand. We find that school buses typically follow a two-route schedule on weekdays, featuring extended dwell times between morning and evening trips. Weekday trip distances average 25 miles, while weekend trips average 42 miles. Charging simulations indicate over 90% of the U.S. school bus fleet could be electrified using current technologies (300-mile range at 1.21 kWh/mile with 19.2-kW depot charging) without modifying existing operating patterns. Depot charging is a key enabler of school bus electrification, however, the strategic placement of charging stations at other locations (e.g., schools) can further increase electrification potential. Additionally, we find electric school bus charging to be highly flexible, with charge management capable of reducing peak charging loads at depots by up to 77%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Decarbonization Planning through Climate Resiliency Modeling

California has set ambitious decarbonization goals concerning both emissions and the portion of energy generated by renewable resources. However, climate change poses considerable uncertainties. Variation in load is driven both by the level of electrification as well as the impact of climate change on weather. Further, climate change stands to make weather more variable, impacting not just load but generation from renewable resources. In this paper, we approach the issue of the impacts of climate change on decarbonization planning from two perspectives. First, we look at the range of decarbonization pathways through 8 pathways that account for differences in socioeconomic development, global emissions, and warming. Second, we develop a more robust way of ensuring the reliability of energy resources planning than the commonly used planning reserve margin. We show that the proposed method can save between 6 and 14 billion dollars in investment and maintenance costs and outline critical policy implications concerning the reliance of power plants for satisfying planning reliability requirements, including the potential retirement of dozens of peaker power plants.

Anderson, Osten P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

EV Charging Infrastructure Energization: An Overview of Approaches for Simplifying Processes and Accelerating Timelines to Processing EV Charging Load Service Requests

The United States has seen significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, leading to increased demand for EV charging infrastructure and electricity. Growth in electricity demand from EV charging, coupled with growth in other sectors like data centers and electrification of other sectors, is impacting electricity infrastructure and load service request processes after two decades of relatively flat electricity demand. While most electric vehicle charging occurs at home, enroute and depot charging for medium and heavy-duty vehicles, both using high-powered EV charging, are critical to meet electric vehicle operational needs. Over the past decade, EV charging infrastructure site developers, site hosts, and electric distribution utilities have navigated the process to integrate chargers onto the electric grid. Site developers and site hosts have expressed distress that the integration process for high-powered EV charging projects does not meet the needs of the EV market for timeliness or cost. High-powered charging stations typically require a load service request or an agreement with the local utility to connect to the grid. The process of energizing a new high-powered charging site can be complex and time consuming, often taking up to 2 years. This timeline is the result of current utility energization processes having been designed for construction projects that take longer to build (i.e., buildings). The specific challenges stem from various factors, including compartmentalization in application processes, the integration of EV charging process approvals with other distributed energy resources (DERs), and the need to ensure grid reliability. The energization process needs to evolve to meet the growing demand for high-powered EV charging. This white paper compiles information gathered through various conversations with key stakeholders, including utilities, utility regulators, EV charging operators, site developers, and authorities having jurisdiction (AHJ) as well as through an extensive literature review. This document identifies the challenges and provides potential solutions to streamline the process of connecting EV charging infrastructure to the power grid in the United States, serving as a starting point for future conversations around these solutions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design and Operation of Energy Systems with Large Amounts of Variable Generation: IEA Wind TCP Task 25 (Final Summary Report)

This report summarizes findings on wind integration from the 17 countries or sponsors participating in the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Program (IEA Wind TCP) Task 25 from 2006-2020. Both real experience and studies are reported. Many wind integration studies incorporate solar energy, and most of the results discussed here are valid for other variable renewables in addition to wind. The national case studies address several impacts of wind power on electric power systems. In this report, they are grouped under long-term planning issues and short-term operational impacts. Long-term planning issues include grid planning and capacity adequacy. Short-term operational impacts include reliability, stability, reserves, and maximizing the value of wind in operational timescales (balancing related issues). The first section presents the variability and uncertainty of power system-wide wind power, and the last section presents recent studies toward 100% shares of renewables. The appendix provides a summary of ongoing research in the national projects contributing to Task 25 for 2021-2024. The design and operation of power and energy systems is an evolving field. As ambitious targets toward net-zero carbon energy systems are announced globally, many scenarios are being made regarding how to reach these future decarbonized energy systems, most of them involving large amounts of variable renewables, mainly wind and solar energy. The secure operation of power systems is increasingly challenging, and the impacts of variable renewables, new electrification loads together with increased distribution system resources will lead to somewhat different challenges for different systems. Tools and methods to study future power and energy systems also need to evolve, and both short-term operational aspects (such as power system stability) and long-term aspects (such as resource adequacy) will probably see new paradigms of operation and design. The experience of operating and planning systems with large amounts of variable generation is accumulating, and research to tackle the challenges of inverter-based, nonsynchronous generation is on the way. Energy transition and digitalization also bring new flexibility opportunities, both short and long term.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grid Planning for Building Electrification: A Report by the Energy Systems Integration Group’s Grid Planning for Building Electrification Task Force

The increased electrification of buildings across the United States is being driven by technical advancements, cost reductions for some building technologies, consumer preferences, and policy goals for decarbonization. However, the effects of this load growth on the electric distribution system are often only a minor consideration in policymaking and long-term planning studies. The long lead time and useful life of power system equipment means that the decisions taken today are expected to support our society well into the 2060s and beyond. Distribution planning stakeholders can take steps today to establish a grid foundation that captures the new challenges presented by building electrification. This report focuses on building electrification for the residential and commercial sectors, focusing most heavily on space heating, as this end use stands to most strongly impact demand.1 Across all end uses, building electrification could require somewhere between 10% and 70% more electricity generation capacity than exists today depending on technology adoption and energy efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Datasets for Widespread Residential Space Heating Electrification in Texas

In this experiment, we explore long term patterns in electricity demand driven by the dual effects of full electrification of space heating in Texas (by adoption of electric heat pumps), and climate change. We use a predictive model of electricity demand, climate projections, and an open source nodal power system (DC Optimal Power Flow) model of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Heat pumps are a more energy efficient way of providing space heating and cooling in homes. We attempt to exhaustively investigate the impacts of full residential space heating electrification by adoption of heat pumps for the segment of Texas households that currently rely on fossil fuels (about 40%), while simultaneously incorporating climate change meteorological variables. We explore a range of scenarios of heat pump efficiency and climate uncertainty over a long period of future years (2020-2099). In total, the simulation experiment generates 1,280 simulation years of hourly data. We report and analyze results in form of impacts on residential load, total load, peak load, seasonality of peaking, and reliability measured by occurrence and frequency of loss of load events. While the experiment is for ERCOT, the insights and approach can be applied to other regions. The results from the analysis can inform system planners on a range of potential capacity requirements/ reliability implications and/or risks of full space heating electrification via the adoption of electric heat pumps, given the uncertainty in the scenarios/ climate futures. The dataset includes model output for residential, non residential and total load, and the results from the GO ERCOT model runs for 4 RCP Scenarios (RCP 4.5 Cooler, RCP 4.5 Hotter, RCP 8.5 Cooler, RCP 8.5 Hotter), 4 Heating electrification Scenarios (Base , Standard Efficiency HP, High Efficiency HP, Ultra-High Efficiency HP) over 80 years (2020-2099). The metrological variables at BA scale were weighted weighted using population projections consistent with the SSP3 scenario.

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS1975

Electrification

Electrification was chosen for an assessment of conservation impact because it is almost the sole consumer of coal and nuclear power, and because electrical end use can be made to have higher overall efficiency than many present direct fuel uses. The important actions within electrification that were examined are those with the greatest impacts (coal and nuclear), the greatest technological requirements (peak shaving and transmission), and the greatest response from the decision makers (economic health and growth of utilities in an era of increasing energy costs.) A list of recommendations relating to the study of electrification was given.

Source record↗