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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Grid-Aware Charging and Operational Optimization for Mixed-Fleet Public Transit

The rapid growth of urban populations and the increasing need for sustainable transportation solutions have prompted a shift towards electric buses in public transit systems. However, the effective management of mixed fleets consisting of both electric and diesel buses poses significant operational challenges. One major challenge is coping with dynamic electricity pricing, where charging costs vary throughout the day. Transit agencies must optimize charging assignments in response to such dynamism while accounting for secondary considerations such as seating constraints. This paper presents a comprehensive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model to address these challenges by jointly optimizing charging schedules and trip assignments for mixed (electric and diesel bus) fleets while considering factors such as dynamic electricity pricing, vehicle capacity, and route constraints. We address the potential computational intractability of the MILP formulation, which can arise even with relatively small fleets, by employing a hierarchical approach tailored to the fleet composition. By using real-world data from the city of Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, we show that our approach can result in significant savings in the operating costs of the mixed transit fleets.

Sen, Rishav↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Viability of Flexible Dispatch of Unconventional Geothermal Systems

Flexible geothermal operations could boost project returns through the allocation of improved power purchase agreements and/or exploitation of power price arbitrage opportunities. In this study, we investigated the techno-economic feasibility of variable flow rate control and time-of-day pricing in closed-loop geothermal systems. We considered U-shaped multilateral system configurations and modeled a variety of technical system parameters. These designs were simulated using a slender-body theory (SBT) model for transient heat transfer and fluid flow. This subsurface model was integrated into the flexible geothermal economic model (FGEM) tool to evaluate the overall flexible geothermal system techno-economics. Future hourly ambient temperature conditions were based on the Sup3rCC dataset. Published datasets were used for future hourly wholesale electricity prices. We analyzed four operating strategies: 1) baseload operation, 2) seasonal dispatch (high flow rate during summer and nominal flow rate during the rest of the year), 3) net generation maximization by varying flow rate to maximize net power output, and 4) revenue maximization by varying flow rate to maximize revenue. We ran all four scenarios for a multiloop configuration with 12 lateral passes, 7-km vertical depth and 87-km total drilling length. Furthermore, we assumed a 60 degrees C/km geothermal gradient and ambient temperature and wholesale electricity prices for New Mexico as a typical state location. The nominal flow rate was set to 80 kg/s. When considering drilling costs of $1,000/m and a discount rate of 7%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of ~$150/MWh. When considering project return on investment (ROI), defined as lifetime net income divided by upfront capital costs, all flexible operation scenarios performed better than the base case scenario. The highest ROI of 80% was obtained with the revenue maximization scenario. With drilling costs of $200/m and a discount rate of 5%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in LCOE of $49/MWh.

flexible geothermal↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant-wide modeling and techno-economic analysis of a direct non-oxidative methane dehydroaromatization process via conventional and microwave-assisted catalysis

Direct non-oxidative methane dehydroaromatization (DHA) process via conventional and microwave (MW)-assisted thermo-catalytic catalysis is studied. Rate models for methane DHA reactions, including the effect of catalyst deactivation, are developed by using the in-house experimental data. Model results for gas concentration profile and catalyst deactivation are in good agreement with the experimental data. This rate model is then used for the development of dynamic multi-scale, multi-physics commercial-scale reactor models. Total number of fixed bed reactors desired for a cyclic steady state process is estimated. Plant-wide models are then developed for conventional and MW-assisted processes for producing products of desired specifications. Techno-economic analysis of the methane DHA process is undertaken. Economics of these methane DHA processes are compared with the typical multi-step natural gas to aromatics production process via methanol synthesis. Sensitivity of internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) to various economic and process parameters such as plant scale, desired rate of return, reactor cost, feedstock and utility cost, catalyst variable cost, and MW reactor cost is studied. Here, electric equivalent efficiency of the conventional methane DHA process is found to be 69.2 % and 67.3 % at 750 °C and 800 °C, respectively, while the MW-assisted methane DHA process has the electric equivalent efficiency of 48.9 % at 800 °C. IRRs of the conventional methane DHA process at 750 °C and 800 °C, and MW-assisted process are 15.2 %, 17.5 %, and 18.8 %, respectively for a methane feed flowrate of 19,782 kg/h, while the IRR of the multi-step natural gas to aromatics production process is estimated to be 0 % for the same plant scale. Impact of change in the methane price, electricity price, and catalyst cost is found to be considerable on the process economics, while the cost of the MW reactor is found to have negligible impact.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible FlueCO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions remain a significant challenge on the path to clean energy. There are increasing legislative, social, and environmental factors motivating CO2 emissions reduction from power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS in natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants is critical to achieve a net-zero carbon electricity grid. Enhanced 45Q tax credits provide new incentives, but currently available technologies are unable to profitably operate in grids with deep variable renewable penetration which require flexible NGCC operation. Luna Labs has developed the FlueCO2 membrane to enable a profitable NGCC-CCS process. The FlueCO2 membrane couples steam transport across the membrane to CO2 transport in the opposite direction, enabling high capture efficiencies and low energy costs even at low CO2 concentrations. The dual-phase membrane can operate in the range of typical flue gas temperatures and pressures and does not require temperature or pressure cycling. Luna Labs’ FlueCO2 technology enables flexible and profitable operation of NGCC plants with lower capital investment and impact on electricity prices. In this Phase 1 project, Luna Labs utilized experimental testing, modeling, process simulation, and standardized costing methodologies to evaluate the techno-economic value of a 650 MW greenfield NGCC plant with FlueCO2 (NGCC-FlueCO2). Key design requirements for operation were established and plant performance under load-leveling conditions was validated through computational fluid dynamics and process modeling. Luna Labs developed a dynamic modeling tool which modeled plant operational modes across a variety of tax structures and electricity pricing scenarios to project the overall Net Present Value (NPV) of the NGCC-FlueCO2. FlueCO2 minimizes the impact of CCS integration on plant operation by integrating directly into the NGCC heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). By tapping into the plant’s low-pressure (LP) steam, operators can divert LP steam to the greenfield NGCC and/or CCS process in response to dynamic markets. Since FlueCO2 will not significantly affect HRSG (or NGCC) operation, CCS only turns off during peak power demand (>$250/MWh). Under baseload conditions, FlueCO2 lowers the capital (37%), energy (36%) and carbon capture (<$40/tonne) costs and can increase the overall plant lifetime NPV by approximately ~$1B in comparison with NGCC solvent-based capture reference cases (NETL Case 31B). Luna Labs has shared its costing tools with several interested partners and customers, which follows a generalizable approach to costing analysis.

Kelly, Jesse↗
DOE OSTI2025

GreenThrift: Optimizing Carbon and Cost for Flexible Residential Loads

Reducing buildings’ carbon emissions is an important sustainability challenge. While scheduling flexible building loads has been previously used for a variety of grid and energy optimizations, carbon footprint reduction using such flexible loads poses new challenges since such methods need to balance both energy and carbon costs while also reducing user inconvenience from delaying such loads. This paper highlights the potential conflict between electricity prices and carbon emissions and the resulting trade-offs in carbon-aware and cost-aware load scheduling. To address this trade-off, we propose GreenThrift, a home automation system that leverages the scheduling capabilities of smart appliances and knowledge of future carbon intensity and cost to reduce both the carbon emissions and costs of flexible energy loads. At the heart of GreenThrift is an optimization technique that automatically computes schedules based on user configurations and preferences. We evaluate the effectiveness of GreenThrift using real-world carbon intensity data, electricity prices, and load traces from multiple locations and across different scenarios and objectives. Our results show that GreenThrift can replicate the offline optimal and retains 97% of the savings when optimizing the carbon emissions. Moreover, we show how GreenThrift can balance the conflict between carbon and cost and retain 95.3% and 85.5% of the potential carbon and cost savings, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Strategies for Hybrid Battery‐Storage Systems Design

As stationary hybrid energy‐storage systems (HESS) for power systems applications have recently drawn interest due to their enhanced performance and decreasing cost, developing systematic approaches for HESS design while considering controls is gaining traction. Herein, a method is presented to optimally design hybrid battery storage by proposing a mathematical modeling framework, formulated as a mixed integer linear programming model. The optimization is capable of handling multiple subsystems of batteries, considering their economic and technological performance. Decisions involve sizing of the batteries, optimal temporal and strategic dispatch to end uses, and energy sources for charging each battery. The applicability of the model is tested on four case studies for three battery chemistries representing distinct objectives: high‐power, high‐energy, and second life. Compared to traditionally designed battery storage with a homogeneous battery, optimally designed hybrid systems can save 12%–26% of system costs, depending on the nature of the dispatch profile. Findings point to design preference toward the second life battery supplemented with some high‐power or high‐energy battery capacity, or both. With the utilized electricity price structure, customers can experience approximately 10%–35% reduction in their bills.

Koleva, Mariya↗
DOE OSTI2022

MPC solution for optimal load shifting for buildings with ON/OFF staged packaged units: Experimental demonstration, and lessons learned

Small and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCB) are significant demand response resources, and it is important to develop grid-responsive control algorithms that exploit those resources and create financial benefits for building owners and HVAC service providers. Furthermore, unlike large-sized commercial buildings, there is an opportunity to have universally applicable control solutions for many SMCBs since those buildings have a consistent HVAC system configuration: SMCBs are commonly served by multiple-staged air conditioning units controlled by their own thermostats. Despite the demand response potential and scalability, however, very few control solutions are available for SMCBs. Typical model predictive control (MPC) and heuristic control approaches for cooling load shifting that lower thermostat setpoints before an electric price jump are suitable mainly for large-sized commercial buildings where a continuous capacity modulation is possible, e.g., via dampers in variable air volume terminal units. However, those approaches can cause undesired, high peaks for SMCBs due to the nature of ON/OFF unit staging and narrow thermostat deadbands. This could discourage the use of advanced grid-responsive controls for SMCBs due to the concern of high demand charges, and has to be resolved. This paper presents a MPC solution that overcomes this challenge. It has a hierarchical MPC structure where an upper level MPC is responsible for electrical load shifting in response to an electric price signal while a lower level MPC is responsible for coordinating compressor stages to eliminate unnecessary peaks and follows the setpoints determined by the upper level MPC. In this work, two one-month, comprehensive laboratory tests have been carried out to demonstrate load shifting and cost savings for the algorithm. Interesting trade-offs between energy efficiency and load flexibility were observed and are discussed, and lessons learned for applying MPCs for SMCBs are also presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

The value of in-reservoir energy storage for flexible dispatch of geothermal power

Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental characterization and analysis of phase change material-based thermal energy storage system for refrigerated display case

Refrigerated display cases that are used to store and exhibit food products in supermarkets and retail spaces consume a significant portion of the buildings’ total electricity. Importantly, the refrigeration-related energy cost and demand charges are greatly affected by the time-of-use electricity pricing and demand rates, which are at their maximum during peak hours, typically when refrigeration energy consumption is also high. Using energy storage to shift the refrigeration load from peak to off-peak hours can greatly reduce the operational costs in the supermarket. This study demonstrates a phase change material-based thermal energy storage (TES) system, specifically designed in stackable units, that can be integrated with an open vertical refrigerated display case. We perform numerical and experimental characterization that includes finite-difference modeling for the TES, prototype fabrication, and laboratory evaluation, followed by a preliminary system-level analysis to predict the impact of TES on the refrigerated case performance, energy use, and energy cost. The results show that the dedicated latent TES for refrigerated cases can provide a specific energy of 50.4 Wh/kg and a specific power of 15.5 W/kg. The TES can be charged during 12 h of the off-peak period and discharged at various rates during 4 to 6 h of the peak period, thereby shifting the refrigeration load from the peak to the off-peak period. Consequently, annual cost savings up to 19% can be achieved, depending on the thermal load, the summer/winter peak electricity pricing, and the transition temperature of the phase change material used.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A nuclear-hydrogen hybrid energy system with large-scale storage: A study in optimal dispatch and economic performance in a real-world market

Here a study in optimal dispatch and economic analysis of a novel nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) with large-scale hydrogen storage and a novel control scheme is conducted. The control scheme makes charge and discharge decisions by using the real-time electricity price relative to the historical price distribution. The pricing data is taken from the ERCOT Houston and West load zones with different price oscillations. Six case control studies with different levels of aggressiveness were chosen for each load zone for a total of 12 case studies. It is found that in a high price volatility load zone, a more aggressive control strategy maximizes revenue, while in a less oscillatory load zone, a moderate control strategy performs better. The NHES can store energy when the price is low and sell additional electricity when the price is high, as well as participate in the ancillary services market. Due to these advantages, the NHES can generate 10–40 million USD more revenue annually than a stand-alone nuclear plant. Due to higher costs, the NHES has a higher LCOE (81.36 USD/MWh) than a stand-alone plant (68.66 USD/MWh); however, the LCOE of the NHES is still comparable to other new forms of electricity generation. It is found that both the NHES and the stand-alone plant are not economical in the existing electricity market. Due to the extra revenue generated, the hybrid system has a positive annual cashflow whereas the stand-alone plant does not. It is found that the hybrid plant needs less cost subsidy than a stand-alone plant to become economical.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities for Industry to Provide Flexibility While Increasing Profitability

Supply and demand flexibility will both be needed to ensure the electricity system functions properly as the share from variable renewable generation continues to grow. Industrial manufacturing currently consumes about a third of primary energy worldwide, and electricity is projected to supply an increasing share of this demand as the global economy decarbonizes. Therefore, the ability for industry to flex demand poses an enticing opportunity to enable grid flexibility. However, large capital outlays prevent industry from voluntarily altering demand. Here we show that as battery costs continue to fall, industry will soon be able to profitably alter demand in accordance with electricity price variations. Focusing on two established industries– chlor-alkali and electric arc furnaces – and two industries with large future potential – methane pyrolysis and atmospheric CO 2 capture, we use a linear program (LP) optimization to assess the technoeconomic feasibility of flexible industrial demand across both historical and future-looking wholesale day-ahead marginal prices for the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). We find positive net present values (NPV) from $\$$400K to $\$$50M using projected 2050 battery prices for industrial purchase of behind-the-meter batteries, using only arbitrage as a source of value. These results indicate that, with projected battery prices, profit-seeking industrial players could voluntarily play a future role in stabilizing a high-renewables grid where electricity prices act as accurate signals of grid needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sand-Based Thermal Storage for Building Heating Applications: A District Energy Case Study

Buildings account for 40% of global energy consumption and contribute to 30% of global carbon emissions. As energy from renewable sources increases in availability and building designers push for increased electrification, thermal energy storage (TES) systems will play a crucial role in extending the usable time horizon of renewable energy. While water, molten salt, and phase change materials are typically used for building TES heating applications, silica-sand has emerged as an alternative medium for concentrated solar power applications due to its low cost, wide availability, and comparable system efficiency. This paper proposes a new silica-sand particle-based TES system for building heating applications. In this work, a novel steam plant for district heating applications is first designed to utilize silica-sand TES, which can be used for different district energy systems. To demonstrate the silica-sand TES plant performance, the design is modelled in Modelica based on a case study on the University of Colorado Boulder’s campus. The simulation results show that the sand TES plant is more costly to operate than a gas-boiler based plant due to the low cost of natural gas, while the site EUI and carbon intensity can be improved. This novel system shows initial promise as a low-carbon alternative to conventional natural gas steam boilers but will require further modelling and follow-up research to improve its energy efficiency. An eventual rise in natural gas prices, and reduction of electricity prices, could improve the economic viability of this system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing the Payback and Profitability for Automated Heavy Duty Vehicle Platooning

Heavy duty vehicle platooning under highway operating conditions has been projected to provide significant fuel economy gains based on aerodynamic drag improvements of the platooning vehicles. Realizing these benefits and the economic viability under real-world operating conditions presents several challenges. The objective of this paper (the third as part of a series) is to analytically quantify the payback and profitability of heavy-duty vehicles platooning across the U.S. Interstate highway system. In this paper, a rigorous assessment of several factors that influence the platooning system payback for an end-user as well as the revenue potential for suppliers who may be utilizing an equipment lease model dependent on end-user savings, is presented. In this assessment key interactions explored include market adoption rates, platooning velocities, platoon-able daily mileage, platooning likelihood, variations in baseline powertrain fuel economy (diesel or electric), price of fuel (diesel or electricity), platooning fuel economy benefits, price of the added technology, and the impact of natural platooning due to traffic interactions. Further, the paper explores the economic impact of higher levels of vehicle automation for the trailing vehicles in the platoon, where extending the driver Hours of Service (HoS) may provide additional financial benefits. While the approach makes use of a limited fidelity vehicle analytical model for longitudinal dynamics and operations economics, the narrative provides application decision personnel with a mechanism and well-defined set of impact factors to consider as part of their architectural selection process.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combined Cycle Integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Phase I of this project confirmed the technical feasibility of a Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” system, calculated the key performance parameters like power efficiency and costs, and proved its commercial value with full-year simulations for several US electricity markets with high degree of variable renewable generation and volatile hourly electricity prices. The core element of this project is the Electro Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) technology from Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy GmbH, using thermally stable and inexpensive volcanic rocks as storage material and air as heat transfer medium. This technology is backed by more than 10 years of experience and a 440MMBTU (130MWh-th) pilot plant in Hamburg, Germany, which is in operation since 2019. The integration of this thermal storage in an existing combined cycle power plant (CCPP) is typical power plant technology without any major technology risks. It allows the storage of inexpensive renewable energy during times of surplus renewable generation and the discharge of this energy in times of high energy demand when the fossil plant is in operation. This supplements the fossil power generation with CO2-emission-free energy. The secondary effect of the CiTES system is that a small part of the stored thermal energy is used to keep the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and steam turbine (ST) of the combined cycle power plant in hot and ready-to-start condition. This enables the plant to start rapidly when fossil generation is required to satisfy demand as soon variable generation drops off in the evenings or during cloud cover and calm wind periods. Without pre-warming of the HRSG and ST, the CCPP would need several hours for a cold or warm start, burn a lot of gas and release high NOx emissions during start and wouldn’t be able to use the short times of high energy prices in an efficient or economical manner. The economic parameters of CiTES were determined by a full year “8760” simulation using a data set calculation for each of the hours of the year, and historical electricity and gas prices. For consistency, the simulations were focused on the pre-COVID year 2019. The financially most attractive markets were in the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, which allowed substantial value generation with arbitrage (charge with cheap energy during renewable surplus times and discharge when energy is needed and expensive). The improvement of flexibility with the CiTES system by pre-heating and warm-keeping of the CCPP allowed for additional power generation during short time periods when demand is high but renewable generation is down; when the hourly energy prices are highest in these markets. The simulations are based on 2019 data, when ERCOT had 27GW of installed photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation. They showed that the created revenue with the prototypically sized CiTES system of 1,000MMBTU (300MWh-th) falls a little bit short of what is expected from a commercially viable investment. The system has optimization opportunities for cost reduction and increased effectiveness which will be realized during a potential Phase II Pre-FEED study following this project. Furthermore, it is safe to assume that a lot of renewable generation capacity will be added all over the US in the coming years. As an example, ERCOT is predicting to more than double its renewable generation from 27GW in 2019 to a forecasted 63GW in 2023. This will increase the amount of renewable overproduction exponentially. This rapid increase of local overproduction and the need to curtail renewable generation is well documented by the California ISO (www.CAISO.com / managing oversupply). However, the simulations also revealed a weakness in the structure of the electricity markets in the US. More specifically, when electricity prices are very low and approaching negative levels, the owners of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) will curtail a part of their facility to stabilize the price by reducing supply. This results in a situation in which storage facilities, which are integrated in existing fossil assets and don’t have the behind-the-meter benefit of a VRE, won’t be able to purchase low cost – otherwise curtailed – renewable energy off the grid. A special tariff, which motivates VRE owners to sell otherwise curtailed renewable energy to storage facilities (Hydrogen, thermal, pumped hydro, etc.) can solve this issue. The implementation of such a regulating tariff by Independent System Operators, thus avoiding renewable curtailment, is a pre condition for successful commercialization for renewable energy storage technologies. With this advancement of design and technology and improvements in the market environment, it can be expected that the Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage proves itself as an important innovation to keep highly efficient, natural gas-based power generation economically successful and relevant for the power industry in the United States of America.

Wolf, Thorsten↗