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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗
NASA NTRS2023

Drought-Tolerant Succulent Plants as an Alternative Crop Under Future Global Warming Scenarios in Sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semiarid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO 2 emissions and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO 2 . Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important prerequisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bioeconomy’. Here, we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for the growth of at least one of the species are met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion ha could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.

agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2022

DOE new players Carbon cycle (2016-2021)

The overarching scientific goals of our multidisciplinary grant was to further expand understanding about the key microorganisms (players), metabolic strategies (processes), and interspecies relationships (interactions) involved in the formation and oxidation of methane in the environment. This research applied novel environmental metagenomics, transcriptomics, and proteomic techniques, state-of-the-art analytical imaging, stable isotope geochemistry, and reaction-transport modeling to address these goals and develop an ‘ecosystems level’ understanding of the factors which regulate microbial methane cycling in anoxic sedimentary ecosystems. For decades, it was believed that the obligate step in methanogenesis catalyzed by methyl coenzyme M reductase (Mcr) was limited to a specific branch of the archaeal Domain, formerly known as the Euryarchaeota. Less than a decade ago co-I Tyson’s team published a surprising metagenomic-based discovery of divergent Mcr genes in a novel uncultured phylum (Bathyarchaeota), catalyzing a major shift in thinking about the diversity of microorganisms that encode the potential for methane (or higher alkane) metabolism in anoxic environments (Evans et al., 2015). In our work here, we further expand on the groups of archaea harboring the genomic potential for methane or hydrocarbon metabolism using environmental metagenomics and new gene targeted bioinformatics techniques. We additionally advanced understanding about the terminal electron acceptors and metabolic potential supporting the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) in terrestrial ecosystems, specifically focused on new lineages of ANME archaea capable of respiring manganese oxides with methane presumably using large extracellular multi-heme cytochrome complexes. New details about specific syntrophic mechanisms underlying the exchange of electrons during sulfate-coupled methane oxidation between ANME-2 archaea and their sulfate-reducing bacterial partners were also elucidated as part of this funded project. Through a series of experimental ‘omics and single cell stable isotope probing studies with incubated environmental sediment samples and a cultured model electrogenic microorganism combined with model-based predictions. Combined, this work provides strong support for the hypothesis of direct interspecies electron transfer (DIET) is the dominant syntrophic mechanism controlling the anaerobic oxidation of methane with sulfate over other proposed mechanisms and additionally illustrates important spatial constraints and the underlying physico-chemical factors influencing AOM syntrophic consortia structure for DIET and extracellular metal respiration. This collaborative multi-institutional project successfully advanced several of our milestone goals including the identification of new microbial players containing methyl coenzyme M reductases hypothesized to be central to methane or hydrocarbon cycling in anoxic environments and enhancing fundamental knowledge about the role extracellular electron transfer plays in the ecophysiology of methanotrophic archaea respiring metal oxides and in the physical and metabolic structuring of syntrophic interactions in methane-rich sedimentary ecosystems.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Response of Subsurface Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities to Environmental Fluctuations (Final Technical Report)

Riparian floodplains are dynamic ecosystems linking terrestrial and riverine systems. These floodplains experience hydrological shifts such as changes in water table height, flooding, and drought and can be ‘hotspots’ of biogeochemical cycling due to shifting sediment moisture (and saturation) and subsurface exchanges of water, nutrients, and other compounds across different sediment layers. Subsurface microbial communities are the primary drivers of biogeochemical processes in floodplains, and thus their structure and function can directly influence both surface and groundwater quality. The microbial nitrogen (N) cycle is particularly important in floodplains as it affects nutrient availability and removal. Two functional guilds of chemoautotrophic (i.e. CO2-fixing) microorganisms are responsible for the first oxidative step of the N cycle, nitrification: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) catalyze the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite, while nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize nitrite to nitrate. Despite the critical role nitrification plays in N-cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, our understanding of the diversity, ecophysiology, and activity of nitrifying organisms in subsurface floodplain soils/sediments is extremely limited. To help address this critical knowledge gap, the overarching goal of this project was to determine how shifts in key environmental parameters and gradients impact microbial N-cycling communities/processes, with particular emphasis on nitrification, within hydrologically-variable floodplain sediments in the Wind River Basin near Riverton, Wyoming. The three specific objectives of this project were to: (1) to associate in situ environmental drivers of N cycling with distinct functional guilds; (2) determine the guild response to variation in key ecosystem drivers; and (3) develop a dynamic ecosystem model of the microbial N cycle with the Riverton subsurface using community genomic and biogeochemical data collected in the first two objectives. Over the course of this project, we employed both 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and genome-resolved metagenomics to examine the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic potential of subsurface nitrifier communities within 68 samples collected across multiple sites, depths, and time points within the Riverton floodplain, allowing for both spatial and temporal investigations at different scales. This project benefitted tremendously from recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with dramatic improvements in the computational tools and algorithms available for analyzing such large, complex genomic datasets. By pairing these cutting-edge genomic approaches with depth-resolved sampling and detailed geochemical analyses of the Riverton floodplain, we have gained novel insights into the structure and function of subsurface nitrifier communities in relation to both hydrology and biogeochemistry. This project resulted in the most detailed and comprehensive characterization of N-cycling floodplain microbial communities to date and will hopefully inspire and pave the way for future studies using similar approaches in other floodplains. Indeed, such information is critical for understanding subsurface biogeochemical cycling and how elemental stores are altered from perturbations initiated by the water cycle within floodplains. Finally, because of the terrestrial-aquatic nature of the Riverton floodplain, results from this project are also of relevance to disciplines such as soil science, estuarine science, limnology & oceanography, biogeochemistry, geobiology, environmental engineering, as well as genomics and data science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

PlantCV v4: Image analysis software for high‐throughput plant phenotyping

PlantCV is an open-source Python project aimed at developing tools to address a range of image-based, plant phenotyping questions. PlantCV has been used for more than 10 years to automate trait collection from image data, and the newest release, PlantCV version 4, continues to lower the barrier to entry for users without substantial coding experience through extensive example use-case tutorials and simplified installation. In addition to usability, we document added functionality since the release of PlantCV v2, including support for more image types such as fluorescence, thermal, and hyperspectral data. Finally, we describe the development of a new subpackage focused on morphological trait measurements like leaf angle, and demonstrate its utility as compared to more manual methods of data collection.

Schuhl, Haley [Donald Danforth Plant Science Cente↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plant functional types broadly describe water use strategies in the Caatinga, a seasonally dry tropical forest in northeast Brazil

In seasonally dry tropical forests, plant functional type can be classified as deciduous low wood density, deciduous high wood density, or evergreen high wood density species. While deciduousness is often associated with drought-avoidance and low wood density is often associated with tissue water storage, the degree to which these functional types may correspond to diverging and unique water use strategies has not been extensively tested. We examined (a) tolerance to water stress, measured by predawn and mid-day leaf water potential; (b) water use efficiency, measured via foliar δ 13 C; and (c) access to soil water, measured via stem water δ 18 O. We found that deciduous low wood density species maintain high leaf water potential and low water use efficiency. Deciduous high wood density species have lower leaf water potential and variable water use efficiency. Both groups rely on shallow soil water. Evergreen high wood density species have low leaf water potential, higher water use efficiency, and access alternative water sources. These findings indicate that deciduous low wood density species are drought avoiders, with a specialized strategy for storing root and stem water. Deciduous high wood density species are moderately drought tolerant, and evergreen high wood density species are the most drought tolerant group. Our results broadly support the plant functional type framework as a way to understand water use strategies, but also highlight species-level differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stem respiration and growth in a central Amazon rainforest

Tropical forests cycle a large amount of CO 2 between the land and atmosphere, with a substantial portion of the return flux due tree respiratory processes. However, in situ estimates of woody tissue respiratory fluxes and carbon use efficiencies (CUEW) and their dependencies on physiological processes including stem wood production (Pw) and transpiration in tropical forests remain scarce. In this work, we synthesize monthly Pw and daytime stem CO 2 efflux (ES) measurements over one year from 80 trees with variable biomass accumulation rates in the central Amazon. On average, carbon flux to woody tissues, expressed in the same stem area normalized units as ES, averaged 0.90 ± 1.2 µmol m -2 s -1 for Pw, and 0.55 ± 0.33 µmol m -2 s -1 for daytime ES. A positive linear correlation was found between stem growth rates and stem CO 2 efflux, with respiratory carbon loss equivalent to 15 ± 3% of stem carbon accrual. CUEW of stems was non-linearly correlated with growth and was as high as 77-87% for a fast-growing tree. Diurnal measurements of stem CO 2 efflux for three individuals showed a daytime reduction of ES by 15-50% during periods of high sap flow and transpiration. The results demonstrate that high daytime ES fluxes are associated with high CUE W during fast tree growth, reaching higher values than previously observed in the Amazon Basin (e.g. maximum CUEW up to 77-87%, versus 30-56%). The observations are consistent with the emerging view that diurnal dynamics of stem water status influences growth processes and associated respiratory metabolism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Depth and microtopography influence microbial biogeochemical processes in a forested peatland

Background and aims: Peat-accumulating wetlands have undulating surfaces of raised areas (hummocks) and depressions (hollows). Hummock-hollow microtopography in relation to the water table influences the distribution of plant species, root density, and microbial community composition, which could in turn alter carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling within peatlands. We used paired hummock and hollow cores from a boreal, forested peatland to assess how microtopography influences peatland microbial function and, in turn, ecosystem C and N cycling. Methods: The peat was analyzed for microbial biomass and potential enzyme activity in 10 cm depth increments relative to the water table, resulting in two increments for hollows and three for hummocks, which has a raised increment above the water table. Results: Across hummocks and hollows, microbial C and N and fungal biomass generally decreased with depth from the peat surface. In contrast, potential enzyme activity often increased with depth, but this varied within enzyme functional groups according to topography, depth, or both. The potential enzyme activity of C-N degrading peptidases, for example, differed across the five topography × depth increments with the lowest rate in the aerated hummocks. Hummocks compose approximately 66% of the land area at our study site and would therefore underestimate C turnover by an average of 25% if solely used to extrapolate patterns across a forested bog. Conclusion: In conclusion, our results suggest that asynchrony in C and N cycling across the undulating surface of forested peatlands impacts our ability to accurately predict biogeochemical cycling across this important ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecology of methyl-coenzyme M reductase encoding Thermoproteota

The recent demonstration that members of at least three classes of archaea affiliated with the Thermoproteota superphylum are involved in the production of the climate-active gas methane has sparked discussions about how well we understand the diversity of methanogens. Here, in this work, we show that members of all three of these lineages, as well as several other, yet uncultured and physiologically uncharacterized groups within the Thermoproteota that encode the key enzyme of anaerobic methane cycling, methyl-coenzyme M reductase (MCR), are widely distributed in anoxic ecosystems. We postulate that the taxonomic, metabolic, and ecological diversity of methanogenic and MCR-encoding Thermoproteota are poorly understood, and that the contribution of methylotrophic and thermoproteotal methanogenesis to methane production is largely unknown. We hypothesize that thermoproteotal methanogens could contribute, potentially substantially, to methane emissions in many anoxic environments that harbor methylated precursors, including wetlands, sediments, peat, rice paddies, wastewater sludge, and geothermal systems. We highlight the necessity to experimentally test the (eco)physiology of these widely distributed archaea using both culture-dependent ( in vitro ) and culture-independent ( in situ ) approaches to assess their potential contribution to methane emissions. Last, we stress the importance of remaining agnostic about the physiology of MCR-encoding Thermoproteota in the absence of experimental data because most of these archaea also carry the genetic potential to grow non-methanogenically.

MCR↗
DOE OSTI2020

The maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco affects CO2 refixation in temperate broadleaved forest trees

Mesophyll resistance to CO 2 diffusion (rm) and the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) affect photosynthetic rates, and can potentially also influence the percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO 2 being refixated (Pr) by mesophyll cells. Here we investigated how various leaf anatomical traits (e.g. leaf mass per area [LMA] and leaf dry matter content [LDMC]) influenced rm in leaves of mature forest trees. We further explored how rm and Vcmax in turn affected Pr, and if these traits varied among species and leaves along a light gradient. Photosynthetic CO 2 response of leaves grown in high-, medium-, and low-light environments was measured, from Pinus sylvestris [Scots pine], Picea abies [Norway spruce], Quercus robur [English oak], and Betula pendula [Silver birch] in southern Sweden. A modified version of the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model was fitted to the leaf gas exchange data to estimate Vcmax, rm and Pr. We found that of all leaf traits measured, only LMA for Q. robur was significantly higher in leaves from high-light environments. When comparing species, both rm and LMA were significantly higher in the conifers, and rm had a negative correlation with Vcmax. We found that Pr was similar between different species and functional groups, with an average of 73.2% (and SD of ±10.4) across all species. There was a strong, positive correlation between Pr and Vcmax in broadleaves, and we hypothesise that this effect might derive from a higher CO 2 drawdown near Rubisco in leaves with high Vcmax.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Challenges in studying water fluxes within the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum: A tracer-based perspective on pathways to progress

Tracing and quantifying water fluxes in the hydrological cycle is crucial for understanding the current state of ecohydrological systems and their vulnerability to environmental change. Especially the interface between ecosystems and the atmosphere that is strongly mediated by plants is important to meaningfully describe ecohydrological system functioning. Many of the dynamic interactions generated by water fluxes between soil, plant and the atmosphere are not well understood, which is partly due to a lack of interdisciplinary research. This opinion paper reflects the outcome of a discussion among hydrologists, plant ecophysiologists and soil scientists on open questions and new opportunities for collaborative research on the topic "water fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum" especially focusing on environmental and artificial tracers. We emphasize the need for a multi-scale experimental approach, where a hypothesis is tested at multiple spatial scales and under diverse environmental conditions to better describe the small-scale processes (i.e., causes) that lead to large-scale patterns of ecosystem functioning (i.e., consequences). Novel in-situ, high-frequency measurement techniques offer the opportunity to sample data at a high spatial and temporal resolution needed to understand the underlying processes. Here we advocate for a combination of long-term natural abundance measurements and event-based approaches. Multiple environmental and artificial tracers, such as stable isotopes, and a suite of experimental and analytical approaches should be combined to complement information gained by different methods. Virtual experiments using process-based models should be used to inform sampling campaigns and field experiments, e.g., to improve experimental designs and to simulate experimental outcomes. On the other hand, experimental data are a pre-requisite to improve our currently incomplete models. Interdisciplinary collaboration will help to overcome research gaps that overlap across different earth system science fields and help to generate a more holistic view of water fluxes between soil, plant and atmosphere in diverse ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Non-structural carbohydrates mediate seasonal water stress across Amazon forests

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) are major substrates for plant metabolism and have been implicated in mediating drought-induced tree mortality. Despite their significance, NSC dynamics in tropical forests remain little studied. We present leaf and branch NSC data for 82 Amazon canopy tree species in six sites spanning a broad precipitation gradient. During the wet season, total NSC (NSC T ) concentrations in both organs were remarkably similar across communities. However, NSC T and its soluble sugar (SS) and starch components varied much more across sites during the dry season. Notably, the proportion of leaf NSC T in the form of SS (SS:NSC T ) increased greatly in the dry season in almost all species in the driest sites, implying an important role of SS in mediating water stress in these sites. This adjustment of leaf NSC balance was not observed in tree species less-adapted to water deficit, even under exceptionally dry conditions. Thus, leaf carbon metabolism may help to explain floristic sorting across water availability gradients in Amazonia and enable better prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global relationships in tree functional traits

Due to massive energetic investments in woody support structures, trees are subject to unique physiological, mechanical, and ecological pressures not experienced by herbaceous plants. Despite a wealth of studies exploring trait relationships across the entire plant kingdom, the dominant traits underpinning these unique aspects of tree form and function remain unclear. Here, by considering 18 functional traits, encompassing leaf, seed, bark, wood, crown, and root characteristics, we quantify the multidimensional relationships in tree trait expression. We find that nearly half of trait variation is captured by two axes: one reflecting leaf economics, the other reflecting tree size and competition for light. Yet these orthogonal axes reveal strong environmental convergence, exhibiting correlated responses to temperature, moisture, and elevation. By subsequently exploring multidimensional trait relationships, we show that the full dimensionality of trait space is captured by eight distinct clusters, each reflecting a unique aspect of tree form and function. Collectively, this work identifies a core set of traits needed to quantify global patterns in functional biodiversity, and it contributes to our fundamental understanding of the functioning of forests worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate and hydraulic traits interact to set thresholds for liana viability

Lianas, or woody vines, and trees dominate the canopy of tropical forests and comprise the majority of tropical aboveground carbon storage. These growth forms respond differently to contemporary variation in climate and resource availability, but their responses to future climate change are poorly understood because there are very few predictive ecosystem models representing lianas. We compile a database of liana functional traits (846 species) and use it to parameterize a mechanistic model of liana-tree competition. The substantial difference between liana and tree hydraulic conductivity represents a critical source of inter-growth form variation. Here, we show that lianas are many times more sensitive to drying atmospheric conditions than trees as a result of this trait difference. Further, we use our competition model and projections of tropical hydroclimate based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 to show that lianas are more susceptible to reaching a hydraulic threshold for viability by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convergence in phosphorus constraints to photosynthesis in forests around the world

Tropical forests take up more carbon (C) from the atmosphere per annum by photosynthesis than any other type of vegetation. Phosphorus (P) limitations to C uptake are paramount for tropical and subtropical forests around the globe. Yet the generality of photosynthesis-P relationships underlying these limitations are in question, and hence are not represented well in terrestrial biosphere models. Here we demonstrate the dependence of photosynthesis and underlying processes on both leaf N and P concentrations. The regulation of photosynthetic capacity by P was similar across four continents. Implementing P constraints in the ORCHIDEE-CNP model, gross photosynthesis was reduced by 36% across the tropics and subtropics relative to traditional N constraints and unlimiting leaf P. Our results provide a quantitative relationship for the P dependence for photosynthesis for the front-end of global terrestrial C models that is consistent with canopy leaf measurements.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO 2

Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global vegetation dynamics and their responses to drought, yet sensitivity changes in response to climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with a dynamic statistical learning approach to examine changes in the sensitivity of vegetation greenness to precipitation over the past four decades. We observe a robust increase in precipitation sensitivity (0.624% yr –1 ) for drylands, and a decrease (–0.618% yr –1 ) for wet regions. Using model simulations, we show that the contrasting trends between dry and wet regions are caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ). eCO 2 universally decreases the precipitation sensitivity by reducing leaf-level transpiration, particularly in wet regions. However, in drylands, this leaf-level transpiration reduction is overridden at the canopy scale by a large proportional increase in leaf area. The increased sensitivity for global drylands implies a potential decrease in ecosystem stability and greater impacts of droughts in these vulnerable ecosystems under continued global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗